In honor of our 5-year celebration since beginning 18 Stripes we have assembled some of our writers to complete a roundtable discussion. If you missed Part 1 from yesterday you can read it HERE. We’ll finish up this roundtable with a handful more questions focusing on the Notre Dame program.

Did you think Brian Kelly would recover from the 2016 season and still be at Notre Dame heading into the 2021 season?

Eric: Firmly, no. The 2016 off-season are some of my most vivid memories because of the angst involved with the program and that it was our first full off-season at 18 Stripes. I distinctly remember two feelings. One, I didn’t think Swarbrick would fire Kelly but I thought the odds of it happening increased not insignificantly. Two, I was really confident Kelly’s time at Notre Dame was winding down and, at most, he’d get 3 more years but more likely 2 more years. I was really expecting a frustrating couple of years as this era died and instead–while we haven’t exactly won a National Championship–we got pretty much the exact opposite!

Andy: I really badly wanted Kelly fired after the 2016 season. It wasn’t just that ND was 4-8, it’s that they were 4-8 against what turned out to be a really pathetic schedule, with his only relevant wins in seven seasons to that point having been vacated by academic violations (however you feel about whether those wins should be vacated, the fact is that it’s an embarrassing episode). I could tell based on what we heard all year that it wasn’t going to happen, but I sure as heck wasn’t happy about it. So I can confidently say no, there is no way I thought we would be sitting at the start of 2021 with Kelly not only still here but having not won fewer than 10 games in a season since.

Brendan: I saw the case for keeping Kelly with big changes, but I wouldn’t have been at all upset with letting him go either. I was very interested by the updates that trickled out during the Offseason of Reinvention, but I was highly skeptical that in the end it would matter. I didn’t think we’d repeat 4-8, but I definitely thought something like 6-6 or 7-5 and another offseason crisis were on the table. I just couldn’t see us fixing all those systemic issues in the program in ten months. I was sort of where Eric was – I couldn’t see Kelly lasting more than two or three more seasons at that point. I certainly didn’t foresee us going 43-8 over the next four seasons.

Golden: No way. If you look back throughout ND’s modern football history, coaches who have the kind of season BK had in 2016 never recover. Kuharich, Faust, Davie, Willingham, and Weis all had major flops within their first three years and none lasted longer than five seasons. For Kelly to recover from 2016 the way he has is unprecedented not just in Notre Dame football history, but college football history as well. A good parallel would probably be Holtz’s 1994 season which was a major step back compared to his earlier tenure. Although the Irish somewhat recovered and had good seasons in ‘95 and ‘96, the standard was significantly lower and Holtz left the program. For Kelly to not only survive a 4-8 season, but raise the bar in the manner that he has is a football miracle. This kind of turnaround is why so many embattled coaches (Franklin, Helton) now look to Kelly’s example for hope.

Kelly survived!

Michael: I won’t play Monday morning quarterback and claim to have seen this coming, but it felt like a rebound of some degree was likely if he stayed. The team was too talented and 2016 was filled with such a confluence of bad luck and close game pitfalls that it didn’t seem like things were headed for multiple losing seasons in a row. It also felt like Kelly was due at some point for more consistently good QB play and stability, which came from one of the least likely sources (from a recruiting standpoint). But it’s a testament to the benefit of sticking with a guy with a long track record so long as the fit (and locker room) are intact – a lot of the top names from 2016 like Mark Dantonio, David Shaw, or Tom Herman have gone the opposite direction and coaching hires are a crapshoot.

Tyler: Nah. I won’t pretend I wasn’t fed up with watching loss after loss in 2016. I’m glad BK is still here, though.

Orlok: Brendan is a little too modest in his recollection – he was very in favor of keeping Kelly, or at least he was when he and I got into an internet shouting match about whether Kelly should be fired. I was responsible for 90% of the shouting and 100% of the take that Kelly should be fired. I don’t even remember what game it was after – so many horrible losses blurred together. I had very little faith that Kelly would survive the end of 2017, and I was even skeptical going into 2018; one of the internet analysts (Connelly? One of the other old SBNation crew?) pointed out that many coaches have a bounceback year after their down year, but they don’t make it to the end of two seasons. Basically, they’ve burned up so much goodwill after a tire fire year that the next one spells their end. So I’m shocked that Kelly has had four consecutive ten win seasons. Crazier still, we’re at the point where Kelly has a good chance of surviving even if the team goes 7-5. If that happens though, I’ll probably call for him to be fired. I just can’t help myself.

Brendan: Hey now… I did say multiple times back then that while I thought the best play was to give him a chance with zero leash, I wouldn’t have blamed Jack for moving on because it was such a heavy lift to recover from that mess. You’re right that I forgot our argument specifically, so I can’t speak to the points made then at this moment, but broadly speaking I did push back hard on the notion that there couldn’t possibly be anyone worse than Kelly and that we’d definitely be better off without him no matter who his replacement was. I was dumbfounded that some in the fanbase would make that case with Ty Willingham’s tenure not so far in the rearview. To be honest I had some existential doubts of my own at that point – I honestly believed Kelly was a pretty good coach, and if he could fail that badly at ND did it mean that nobody could find elite success here?

I also spent a good portion of that offseason highlighting how sneakily not-terrible the 2016 team was – even wrote a whole article about what Bill Connelly calls second-order win differential, the gap between how many games a team won and how many SP+ thought they should’ve won. 2013 TCU and 2016 Notre Dame were tied for the largest underachieving differential among Power 5 teams going back to SP+’s inception in 2005. 2013 TCU also went 4-8; 2014 TCU was the 12-1 team that smashed Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl after getting left out of the playoff. There was precedent there and some reasonable cause for belief that 2017 wouldn’t be a straight repeat of 2016, especially with BVG out of the picture.

Setting aside firing BVG, what is the one program-level decision you would’ve made differently over the last 5 years?

Eric: Can I add signing a deal with Under Armour even though that happened prior to 2016? Anyway, I thought really hard about this one and it’s a testament to the shape of the facilities that there isn’t anything super glaring or structural that needs to be addressed today, at least in my opinion. If I had to pick something, it’d probably be signing the deal with the ACC (which I’m fine with) but doing so while also not telling Stanford and Navy to go kick rocks. I feel like we gave up some stability pushing teams like Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State away (again, fine with that), gained even more schedule stability with the ACC deal, and now we don’t need Navy and Stanford–who could very well be back to being bottom feeder teams–on the schedule every single year.

Brendan: I’m also having a lot of trouble with the answer here with BVG off the table. The facilities aren’t great but they’re not terrible, and renovations are in progress. The administration has backed the training table, increased assistant salaries, navigated independence well, built mostly compelling schedules, and just hit a grand slam with their first foray into NIL promotion… If I was forced to pick something, I would say that I wish the program was able to put more resources into recruiting support work – contacting high school players and coaches, graphic design, social media, etc. You have to communicate to your sales prospects in the channels where they feel most natural, and I think Notre Dame is a little behind there. They’ve made some strides recently, so let’s hope it continues. Charter travel for assistants on the trail, which is commonplace for most Power 5 programs, would be good too. The NCAA limits days, not contacts, in an evaluation period. Charter vs. commercial is the difference between seeing 3-4 kids per day and 1-2 kids per day; over a full evaluation period that becomes 60-80 kids vs. 20-40 kids. It’s a huge difference.

Andy: I don’t have a great answer here because I’m pretty OK with every major decision that’s been made in the past 5 years. I guess I would say I would’ve never put Michigan back on the schedule. 2014’s 37-0 win (#RememberThe6) should’ve been the last word on that series forever, and Michigan gets way more out of the series than the Irish do. (And just for the record, this isn’t revisionist history because of the 2019 embarrassment; my very first piece for this site – which I wrote 5 years ago – was about how ND shouldn’t play the Wolverines.)

Brendan: Co-sign. I also thought the 2014 win was the perfect way to end that series for the foreseeable future. Freaking Michigan.

Golden: Tough question because it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what decision would have made the difference in winning a national title over the last five seasons. I don’t know if this is cheating or not, but I would have Brian Kelly make the decision to give a sh#t in the 2016 preseason. Obviously BVG was the major problem and his ousting is off-limits for the question, but there were systemic issues all throughout the team which set the table for 4-8. Kelly himself has admitted he took his eye off the ball after rebuilding the program and it almost led to his downfall. Maybe Kelly caring only means a couple more wins that season, but I’ll take a mediocre 7-5 or 6-6 finish over one of the worst seasons in ND history. Then you can still fire BVG and start the reinvention from a better position.

Should ND invest more in PJ’s?

Michael: Agree this is a challenging question but I think it’s investing more in recruiting resources earlier. We know this is an area where Kelly and the program have made recent changes – trying to evaluate and build relationships with kids earlier, adding scouting and recruiting headcount, and more. While it’s never lagged too far behind the P5 average the Irish always seem 5 years behind the playoff regulars on these fronts.

ND-ATL 2.0: Who is this BVG you speak of?

Orlok: I think that a consequence of the 2016 bomb was that the team deprioritized recruiting a little bit. That makes sense when you wake up one day and discover one side of the ball has not been well coached; you should prioritize re-establishing on field competence. But there are some investments that could have been made earlier; it’s been clear for years that we needed more recruiting staff to compete with top programs. It’s heartening to see the program adding these resources. Most importantly, though, there were several coaches who were poor recruiters. It seems like in the last couple years, Kelly is finally bringing some much needed turnover when a position coach consistently fails to recruit.

My choice for next steps? We still need private jets – I hate to say that, as it seems going overboard, but if you want to be elite you have to spend money to maximize the finite time of your coaches as they visit players.

Do you think Brian Kelly will still be at Notre Dame 5 years from now getting ready to prepare for the 2026 season?

Andy: I’d be very surprised if he was, but who knows. As I already noted, I never thought he’d be here in 2021 as of 2016, so I’ve been wrong before. He has consistently hinted that he’s not that much longer for this job, though – he mentioned something about ‘the window’ in a recent interview with Pete Thamel – so I’ll lay down a ‘no’ for this answer. I think he ends up retiring after the 2024 or 2025 campaign barring something weird happening.

Eric: Funny how things work out given my answer above about Kelly’s status after 2016. I think I’m going to say yes here!?? Kelly famously said he’d be sipping on a Mai Tai for the 2024 Texas A&M game and that’s still 3+ seasons away. He also made that comment nearly 7 years ago, how crazy is that? I don’t know, it just feels like things have changed quite a bit since 2017 began. At one point, Kelly really looked physically and mentally exhausted. This job beats you up! But over the last couple of seasons he seems so much healthier and happier. He looks much older now than 2010 of course but it’s like he’s learned how to compartmentalize the job perfectly and looks younger today than 2015-16. Does year 17 prep seem absolutely insane to me for a Notre Dame coach? Sure, but I don’t think Kelly being a couple months from turning 65 and still being the Irish coach if the program continues winning 10+ games with regularity will be all that stunning to me anymore.

Brendan: I don’t think so. Kelly certainly seems to be sui generis in a lot of ways, but a 17th season at Notre Dame is really hard to picture. Rock’s untimely demise cut him off at 13 seasons. Leahy lasted 11 seasons and had a nervous breakdown. Ara also lasted 11 seasons and retired from coaching at just 54 years old. Lou also also lasted 11 seasons before the administration ran him off and/or he just burned out. This is a tough job, I believe the toughest in college sports and perhaps the toughest in American sports. To deal with that grind for 17 years… I can’t see it. I think he’ll put in two to three more years before riding off into the sunset.

ND-ATL 2.0: I don’t have much of a memory of any other coach other than Brian Kelly, so I guess so?

Michael: Will make the prediction here that in January 2024 there is a dual Brian Kelly retirement and Marcus Freeman new head coach press conference.

Tyler: Keep dreaming, Mike. You know it’ll be Tommy taking over the reigns from BK.

Golden: I have to say no. BK seems like the kind of coach who would want to retire when things are still going well, which god-willing the next three to four years will reflect that. I also just don’t see him coaching at ND that much longer if Swarbrick decides to step down soon as has been rumored. I’m with Mike that 2024 seems to be a natural stopping point considering how the program is set up for the next few seasons.

Orlok: It’s a testament to Kelly’s life-management skills that I can see it. You can frame it both ways: he’s lasted abnormally long on this job, so he’s almost done. Or – he’s lasted abnormally long on this job and that’s a sign he can keep cranking. He does really seem to be happier now than he was in 2016 (or the prior years).

I think if he does break through and win a championship, he’ll retire a winner. Likewise, if he has a bad year, or definitely if he has two, I think he’ll say, “I’m old, that’s it, let’s go be retired and maybe be an analyst if I get bored.”

However – I think that if Kelly keeps winning 10-12 games while slightly improving his recruiting (say we move from about 10th in team talent in the 247 composite to 6th) he’ll stay in the hunt, believing that next year could be the year he finally gets lucky and breaks through. And it’s a credit to him that I can now see that happening.

Brendan: I can get on board with Orlok’s sentiment here too – I agree that Kelly seems much more comfortable now than he ever did, and 10+ wins per year is a powerful ointment for whatever burns the job might entail. So who knows, basically.

Who will be the head football coach at Notre Dame in 2026 if Brian Kelly isn’t around for the 10th anniversary of 18 Stripes?

Golden: Marcus Freeman IF he is still the DC at the time BK decides to step down. I think Freeman is destined for an ND-level job if he does well here so it’ll need to be a “strike when the iron is hot” deal. However, if Freeman is already at a place like Michigan or Penn State then I think Matt Campbell will be the next head coach. There’s too much smoke for there not to be fire if you believe the rumor mill about Campbell’s future intentions.

Andy: Marcus Freeman has more buzz around him right now than any Notre Dame-adjacent assistant coach I can ever remember. I hope it’s him, mostly because it probably means things are continuing to go great in South Bend in the interim.

Eric: This is tough because this likely means a new AD since Jack Swarbrick right now is 2 years older than the age Brian Kelly would be in 2026 and if he’s not around it’s less likely Notre Dame sticks in-house for a hire and/or goes with someone who coached in South Bend in recent years. Then again, there are approximately 74 athletic directors across the country who went to Notre Dame so maybe the whole in-house thing will still apply. You have to think when Kelly leaves there will be an emphasis on an ace recruiter with an offensive background. Is that Tommy Rees? I still can’t shake the feeling it’ll be P.J. Fleck.

Orlok: This is tough. Tommy has exceeded all my expectations as a coach and is a consensus “great mind” (™). But I think Marcus Freeman has a better chance to succeed as a head coach than Tommy, mainly because he’s a better recruiter. The X factor here is who most wants to come back to Notre Dame. That could tilt the scales back in favor of Tommy.

Eric, I will offer some kind of large odds against PJ Fleck before 2026.

Eric: Fleck will be scooped up by Michigan, Penn State, or maybe a school like Tennessee within the next 2 years is my bet. I don’t really think the timeline really works for him to come to Notre Dame anymore. But, I’ve still always had a feeling about him.

Tyler: As a WMU grad who was in Kalamazoo during the Fleck years, I’d place the odds of Fleck ever being the head coach at Notre Dame next to zero — even if the timing did somehow work out. The ND administration would probably hate him (or at least his persona).

Eric: Notre Dame not hiring Fleck on the basis that he’s too excitable or has uncommon motivational tactics smells like an extremely 1990’s administration decision that I would hope they’ve moved well past. That, and his divorce possibly placing him on the black list, too.

Brendan: And now the gloves come off, lol… Forget the alleged extracurriculars at Western Michigan. I think Fleck is hokey as hell and way too much about The Brand to be effective at a blue blood, and I’m also not sold on his ability to run an actual program. To me he’s sort of a Ned Flanders version of Pat Fitzgerald, which is maybe one of the meanest things I’ve ever said about anyone. I have a large “meh” bucket of guys like Fleck, Fitz (obviously), Matt Campbell (good but not sold he’s more than that), etc. I haven’t seen anything from them to make me think they’d definitely be successful at Notre Dame.

I’ll put my money on Freeman. I know he hasn’t done anything on the field yet, but man does he have a vibe around him. The ND football Twitter account posted a video of him wandering around spring practice interacting with everyone – not just defensive players – and something about the way he carried himself and the way the players reacted to him really struck me. I have no doubt that he’s future head coach material. If the on-field results are as good as we have every reason to expect them to be, I would sign on to quietly giving him the HCIW tag.

If not Freeman, then Rees?

I think Tommy will be a head coach elsewhere before 2026, maybe even as soon as next year. I think Irish fans severely underestimate how well he’s regarded in coaching circles, and he’s going to get a shot in the near future. He would be a solid second choice, assuming he looks good in whatever smaller head job he gets.

Other than that, who knows man. Just for fun, I looked for buzz from five years ago about that offseason’s 21 FBS head coach hires. I came across an article by Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, in which he graded the hires. He gave out five A’s:

Texas, Tom Herman
Minnesota, PJ Fleck
Purdue, Jeff Brohm
USF, Charlie Strong
FAU, Lane Kiffin

And three A-’s:
Oregon, Willie Taggart
Baylor, Matt Rhule
Western Kentucky, Mike Sanford

Bill wasn’t on an island with these grades; they were more or less universally hailed at the time. Kiffin and Rhule went on to greener pastures, which would imply that they were in fact good hires. Herman, Strong, Taggart, and Sanford unquestionably were bad hires. Fleck needs to show that the outlier is his combined 15-17 record in years 1, 2, and 4 and not his 11-2 record in year 3. Brohm has probably one of the worst Power 5 jobs, but still, 19-25 isn’t going to get him any statues.

You could do this exercise in any given offseason. Hiring a coach is really, really hard; as they say, past success is by no means any guarantee of future performance. Most teams that get it right do so almost by accident – like Alabama, who landed on Saban as their third or fourth choice. So I’ll put the best odds on two guys in the program now who could provide some continuity, and outside of that I couldn’t even begin to guess.

Eric: Now it looks like I’m stumping for Fleck! My general point would be, think about not being sold on Fleck’s ability to run a program and pivoting towards someone (Freeman) who has never been a head coach and hasn’t even participated in a single game as a coordinator at Notre Dame yet. I like him too of course, but the graveyard of hyped assistants and coordinators failing as head coaches is just as bad if not worse than Bill C’s list above. Especially concerning ND assistants. File this under, I’m not saying I’m just saying.