It’s NBA Draft night! Move over Woj, Jonathan Givony, and Shams – the 18 Stripes MB Mock Draft is here to get you ready for one of the most entertaining and dramatic nights of the NBA season. In a loaded year, there’s a ton of questions – where will all the talented bigs go, and how do they translate to the modern, small-ball and switch-heavy league? Where will Luka Doncic, 19-year old Euroleague MVP go? Will Kawhi Leonard or another former All-Star get traded out of nowhere?

Predicting picks is a fools errand, given the trades that will surely go down – the Grizzlies potentially moving down and trying to unload Chandler Parsons albatross of a contract, or teams falling in love with someone like Mo Bamba and trying to move up. But we’ll do our best to get something close to the right order with a nod toward fit if the team picking in that slot keeps it.

The Lottery

#1 Phoenix Suns – Deandre Ayton (C) Arizona

It seems like a lock to get at least this pick right – Ayton has been telegraphed as the Suns’ pick for several weeks now. He’s a physical freak with a ton of offensive skills, but his lack of rim protection at Arizona and waxing and waning effort make it a little curious that there hasn’t been much debate about who Phoenix will take at the top. Owner Robert Sarver is a UA alum, so maybe it’s a simple as that.

#2 Sacramento Kings – Luka Doncic (G), Real Madrid

This is a total wild card spot – Vivek Ranadive and Vlade Divac could do anything. Marvin Bagley has been the hot name to go second, as he was one of the few top prospects to work out in Sacramento and share his medicals with the Kings staff. Ultimately I think the Kings either have a last minute change of heart and take Doncic or trade back a few picks for a significant haul (e.g. going back to #5 with Dallas, but securing two future firsts from the Mavs). If Danny Ainge was prepared a few years ago to unload four future firsts for Justise Winslow, how much might he (or another team that loves Luka) unload for #2 or #3?

#3 Atlanta Hawks – Jaren Jackson Jr. (C), Michigan State

If Doncic is gone the Hawks will also consider trading back, but Jackson makes a ton of sense here. In some ways he is the anti-Ayton – he’s a lengthy rim protector with a strong motor and flashed 3 point shooting potential at MSU. Jackson is also one of the youngest players in the draft, and would allow the Hawks to continue their total rebuild with John Collins and Taurean Prince while still remaining bad enough to be a high lottery team (with cap space!) again next year

#4 Memphis Grizzlies – Marvin Bagley (F), Duke

Grizzlies owner Robert Pera last week said he sees no reason why the Grizz can’t be a 50-win team next year, so taking one of the most productive and NBA-ready players makes sense if Bagley drops a bit. Bagley would complement Marc Gasol well, with different strengths (rim-running, athleticism) and the ability for the veteran to hide his weaknesses (rim protection and length, consistent outside shooting).

#5 Dallas Mavericks – Michael Porter Jr. (F), Missouri

Whether this pick stays with Dallas or Sacramento trades back in the hypothetical above, Porter makes sense here. He’s one of the riskier picks in the draft, with incredible upside but injury and some attitude concerns. This is one insane quote:

“Right now, I’m a little, I’m a mix of Giannis and KD. You know, I like going to the hole a little more than KD does, I like bumping into people a little more physical than KD. But I also, you know I like to shoot the ball more than Giannis. So that’s what I like to compare myself to. Then also Tracy McGrady. I get compared to him a lot and I like that one a lot too. You know, those are three amazing players. So it doesn’t feel bad to be in the same conversation as them.”

He compared himself to two top-5 players, then said he was honored to be in the conversation with them! Still, the Mavericks and Kings could be take a roll of the dice on a player that has a chance to be one of the best players in the draft if healthy. Both are badly in need of a star.

#6 Orlando Magic – Mo Bamba (C), Texas

The Magic could badly use a point guard, but Bamba’s potential is too much to pass up here. Bamba averaged 3.7 blocks per game at Texas and had the longest measured wingspan (7’10) in combine history. His floor seems to be one of the three best rim protectors in the league, with the potential to develop an outside shot. Oh, and he also posted a faster 3/4 sprint than Russell Westbrook and John Wall.

#7 Chicago Bulls – Wendell Carter Jr. (C), Duke

The Bulls should be in best player available mode, and Carter is pretty good at everything you want from a modern big. He has a long wingspan, made catch and shoot 3’s at a decent clip, and is a decent passer. He can space the floor decently alongside Lauri Markannen while also possessing a little more heft to bang inside with bigger bodies.

#8 Cleveland Cavaliers – Collin Sexton (G), Alabama

Whether LeBron stays or goes, the Cavs could badly use a future point guard. Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could be considered, but Sexton brings a contagious attitude and work ethic that Cleveland would need in either another contending run or a rebuild. Sexton is a bit raw, but is one of the better penetrating guards and defenders in the draft.

#9 New York Knicks – Trae Young (G), Oklahoma

Madison Square Garden and Trae Young feel like a perfect fit. Young likes the spotlight and already learned how to deal with life under the microscope during an intense hype/criticism cycle as a freshman at OU. His defense is a huge question mark, but his strengths and weaknesses are polar opposites of last year’s first-rounder, Frank Ntilikina. Young wasn’t super efficient as a Sooner, but had an extremely high burden on offense and took a ton of threes off the dribble with a high degree of difficulty. With less pressure to be the sole source of scoring and time in an NBA offense, Young should be an instant heat check guy at the very least.

#10 Philadelphia 76ers – Mikal Bridges (F), Villanova

This seems like the most obvious pick in the draft, which means it probably won’t happen. Philly could use a 3 and D guy ready to contribute right away, and Bridges can do that. He’s old by draft standards at almost 22, but it’s funny to hear him critiqued as a “finished product” when someone like Ben Simmons (virtually the same age), is talked about as having so much room to grow.

#11 Charlotte Hornets – Kevin Knox (F), Kentucky

When NBA teams gamble it’s usually on raw potential and upside, and Knox possesses it in spades. Kentucky was a mess last year trying to piece together the usual cadre of one and dones, but Knox has great size and shooting ability. He’ll need to bulk up and answer questions about defense and rebounding, but could develop into the prototype small-ball 4.

#12 Los Angeles Clippers – Shai Gilgeous Alexander (G), Kentucky

The Clippers badly want to move up in this draft, so this could easily be a pick made on another team’s behalf. Gilgeous-Alexander has great size, solid defense, and emerged as the best player in Calipari’s stable of blue chips. If they can’t package 12/13 to trade up, watch for Toronto as a potential trade partner if Gilgeous-Alexander is still available.

#13 Los Angeles Clippers – Robert Williams (C), Texas A&M

The Clips find their Deandre Jordan replacement in another Aggie – Williams is another athletic dunker who plays above the rim. Clint Capela showed against Golden State that there’s still a place in the league for a rebounding, screening and rolling big like Williams.

#14 Denver Nuggets – Miles Bridges (F), Michigan State

Denver is dying to make the playoffs and Bridges can help immediately – there’s not much he doesn’t do well. He played out of position (SF) in East Lansing and probably pressed a little with his decision-making. Still, he’s a freakish athlete that with some added muscle can be a small-ball power forward and has a lot of upside if he becomes a better ball handler or outside shooter.

Rest of 1st Round

#15 Washington Wizards – Lonnie Walker (G), Miami
#16 Phoenix Suns – Jerome Robinson (G), Boston College
#17 Milwaukee Bucks – Zhaire Smith (F), Texas Tech
#18 San Antonio Spurs – Donte DiVincenzo (G), Villanova
#19 Atlanta Hawks – Kevin Huerter (G), Maryland
#20 Minnesota Timberwolves – Troy Brown (F), Oregon
#21 Utah Jazz – Chandler Hutchison (G), Boise State
#22 Chicago Bulls – Aaron Holiday (G), UCLA
#23 Indiana Pacers – Mitchell Robinson (C), High School
#24 Portland Trailblazers – Elie Okobo (G), France
#25 Los Angeles Lakers – Khyri Thomas (G), Creighton
#26 Philadelphia 76ers – Josh Okodgie (G), Georgia Tech
#27 Boston Celtics – Grayson Allen (G), Duke
#28 Golden State Warriors – Jacob Evans (F), Cincinnati
#29 Brooklyn Nets – Keita Bates-Diop (F), Ohio State
#30 Atlanta Hawks – Anfernee Simons (G), High School