Welcome back to the 18Stripes G5 Top 10. There was an obvious result (that I have to talk about from a certain POV), but there was a lot of shakeups in the Group of 5 World, causing some shuffling in the top ten.
Also Considered: Fresno State, Nevada, Army, Wyoming, Houston
Week 5 Recap
Movers and Shakers
We have to start with one of the biggest results of the weekend, never mind the Group of 5 Teams. I won’t harp so much on the Notre Dame side of the Cincinnati 24-13 win, but focus on where Cincinnati can go from here. They avoided the slow start plaguing them the past two games and hung with Notre Dame. The defense stepped up with some opportunistic turnovers, then the second half belonged to the Bearcats offense grinding down the Irish defense.
The sky is the limit at this point for this Cincinnati team. I mentioned in the preview that this was the biggest opportunity to break through the National scene since the 2009 season. All of their toughest remaining games (UCF and SMU) are at home, and if they win all of those they’ll host the American Conference Championship Game. As of this writing they are ranked 5th and we will have to wait and see where the initial CFP Rankings slot them if they remain undefeated. They should hypothetically be #4 at the very least with the Iowa-Penn State loser falling a couple of spots. They are far and away the best Group of 5 Team and I don’t imagine that will change anytime soon.
Elsewhere in the AAC, we saw what the UCF team looks like without Dillion Gabriel under center. It was, in a word, underwhelming. UCF led Navy hang around for most of the game, before Navy scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. They sealed the 34-30 victory with an interception in the end zone. Briefly circling back to Cincinnati for a second, this game looks very less scary as it might have before with Gabriel under center.
One of the biggest games of the weekend happened when almost everyone was asleep. Jake Haener and Fresno State fell to Hawaii on island after committing 6 turnovers. Three of those turnovers were interceptions via Haener inside the Hawaii 10 yard line. The Bulldogs outgained the Rainbow Warriors 505-348, but those turnovers turned out to be the difference between winning and losing. The Mountain West looks wide open once again, as Boise State also fell to turnovers in their loss at home against Nevada.
Two teams entered (or re-entered in one case) the Top Ten this week. Liberty demolished UAB in the Blazers’ stadium opening. Malik Willis threw for 287 yards and rushed for another 144 in the 36-12 victory for the Flames. Liberty has some more chances to try and break through as some of their tougher games come up later in the season, so we’ll know more about them as those games arrive. Western Michigan continues its hot streak by holding off a game Buffalo team 24-17. After Toledo and Ball State both have taken some bad losses this season, Kaleb Eleby and the Broncos look poised to take control of the MAC West, and potentially the entire conference.
Top Teams Wraparound
Elsewhere in the Group of 5 ranks, we had mostly chalk efforts. BYU easily took care of Utah State on Friday Night 34-20. Coastal Carolina took care of UL-Monroe 59-16.Louisiana survived a scare from South Alabama on the road, winning 20-18. Literally, South Alabama had two opportunities to win this game. The first the Jaguars tried to go for it inside the UL 15 and failed. Then, as the game ticked down, South Alabama had a chance for a game winning field goal, but they missed it and the Ragin Cajuns survived.
I wanted to group all of those games because they are all connected in regards to the swapping of BYU and Coastal. CCU only has two big games on their schedule; going to App State for what is essentially the Sun Belt East and a Sun Belt Conference Championship Game against the Ragin Cajuns. Watching most of the Louisiana game on Saturday, I can’t feel confident in them being a quality win for Coastal in terms of putting them into a potential NY6 situation. BYU has Baylor, Ole Miss, and Louisiana on their schedule. If you cancel out the Louisiana game, BYU has more chances for big wins down the line and hence why they made the jump to #2.
Ball State stunned Army, forcing the cadets to try and beat the reigning MAC Champs through the air. The Black Knights could not do so, and fell 28-16. UTSA, after a couple of weeks on the road, kept UNLV at arms length for most of the second half. The Roadrunners ended up winning 24-17, but the game never seemed in doubt, as the UTSA defense got 3 turnovers off UNLV. As I mentioned before, the Mountain West seems wide open and UNLV could be an agent of chaos in that field. Finally, in a final tune up before a match up with Louisiana, App State easily dismantled Georgia State 45-16.
Week 6 Preview
Headliners
I think this space will have every Cincinnati game going forward as we are firmly in “Bearcat Playoff Watch” until further notice. They take on Temple at home on Friday night. Temple did recently knock off Memphis in Philly. I’m not sure that this game will ultimately be close, but I do foresee some sort of hangover for a quarter or so.
The other headliner is a game that looked good on the surface coming into this season; Boise State @ BYU. However, after dropping their games to UCF, Oklahoma State, and Nevada, Boise appears to be in a precarious position. When I saw their SP+ projections it showed essentially the Broncos losing their non-conference games and winning all of their MWC games. While clearly that hasn’t been the case, it shows that this is a down Broncos team. However, it is a cool rivalry game and who knows if the spirit of the 2006 team comes down to try and beat BYU this weekend.
Conference Highlights
SMU @ Navy (American): Once again we have a home Navy game. However, unlike last week I think that this will be a good showing for SMU, now AP ranked, to make their final mark to the CFP committee before the first rankings come out. If Navy can slow the game down, it will probably be a close game, but that feels like the only way Navy can try and get win #2 on the season.
UTSA @ Western Kentucky (C-USA): The Roadrunners face their first conference test when they go on the road to take on the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky seems to be an “all gas no brakes” kind of offense. They tried to hang around with Michigan State last week and it will be interesting to see how UTSA handles their offense and if they can slow them down.
Ball State @ Western Michigan (MAC): The Broncos run of the MAC gauntlet (they host Kent State then go to Toledo in consecutive weeks) is in full swing. They host Ball State this week as the Cardinals try to get back on track. This feels like the loser falls out of contention for the MAC West. Also, let’s just hope the feed lasts the entire game unlike last year.
Wyoming @ Air Force (Mountain West): As I mentioned multiple times this week, Boise State appears to be in a down year. That leaves the other two teams with games against Boise still left on their schedule. Wyoming almost lost to UConn two weeks ago but remains 4-0 and on the cusp of being considered for the Top Ten. Air Force dropped an early game against Utah State and absolutely needs this game if they want to keep their conference hopes alive.
South Alabama @ Texas State (Sun Belt): Louisiana hosts App State next week. If South Alabama wants to try and make a Cinderella run to the Sun Belt Championship Game, this, along with essentially every other game the rest of the way, is a must win.
Top Teams Roundup
Let’s take a quick look at the rest of the important games on the Week 6 docket. Coastal Carolina looks to continue its steamroll through the Sun Belt as they go to Arkansas State, who hasn’t beaten a FBS team this season. San Diego State hosts New Mexico after a week off. Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee State (who did upset Marshall on Saturday). Nevada hosts the other New Mexico school, taking on New Mexico St. Finally, the suddenly resurgent Houston Cougars are looking to continue their roll to a potential AAC Championship Game as they go to Tulane.
That’s all I have for you all today. I hope there wasn’t too much Cincinnati content for your sensibilities. Sound off on your thoughts on anything Group of 5!
