Welcome back to the 18Stripes G5 Top 10. Back for its first full season and we have some new things to introduce. First, there will be a full list of all G5 and non Notre Dame independents here. This is where we will keep track of the results and progress of the poll. I’ll also be posting Projected Wins on there through SP+, which will be part of the criteria I’ll be using this season.

That gets to the second point I wanted to introduce before diving into the pre-season rankings. Last year, due to the pandemic and the suddenness of this new feature, the rankings were haphazard and seemingly random. This year I have a set criteria:

  • High Performing Teams With Strong Relevant Records
  • Judging Ability to Make NY6 G5 Spot
    • Key Wins Over Major Opponents
    • Ability To Win Their Conference
  • Using Predictive Models to Determine Future Success
    • Leaning on SP+/FPI for similar teams
    • H2H Results/Performance Against Similar Teams

That may sound random or a weird order, but my ultimate goal is trying to see what Group of 5 teams performed best on the field against the best teams on their schedules. There is some intuition but it’s mostly down the line as a tiebreaker between teams, instead of a primary factor (as it was for a couple weeks where BYU and Cincy could have easily been the top team). The google sheet attached also has up to date standings that I will use to determine how “easy” the path is for a given team to put themselves in a position for a Group of 5 NY6 spot. With that all out of the way, let’s take a look at the first poll of the 2021 season.

Also Considered: Ball State, Memphis, Marshall, Wyoming, UTSA, San Jose State

Toughest Opponents for Top 10

Since we have no games to react to, I thought a fun exercise would be taking a look at the toughest games for the top ten teams. The definition of toughest is played fast and loose throughout the list, to be upfront about it. I tried to find games that seemed to be their closest game where the team in the top ten is an underdog. I also tried to not repeat games to expand the purview of this list. So, with all that being said, let’s take a look at the pivot games.

Cincinnati-Oct 2 @Notre Dame

At the end of last year I mentioned the Alex Kirshner tweet talking about the path the 2016 Houston team had to take to put themselves into playoff contention, ultimately failing. Cincinnati seems to have themselves in a similar position, with road games against Notre Dame and Indiana and a straight forward AAC conference slate. Their toughest conference games (UCF and Tulsa) are at Nippert so this game seems to be the pivot for their season. If they can knock off Notre Dame after knocking off Indiana, Cincinnati may find itself on a potential crash course with a CFP spot. At the very least, they may get closer than any other team had, including their team last season.

Coastal Carolina-Oct 20 @ App State

After a memorable season for Coastal Carolina with wins over BYU and Louisiana, the schedule for the Chants eases up a little bit in 2021. Kansas comes to Conway, the Chants go to a depleted Buffalo team, and avoid Louisiana across divisions. However, they do have to go to Boone in October. If the Chants get go on the road and knock off the best team on their schedule, they could easily go into a Sun Belt Championship undefeated.

Louisiana-Sept 4 @ Texas

The Cajuns have a chance, once again, to take down a Big 12 opponent in one of their non-conference games. The major difference here is that they may be the favorites. With Texas firing head coach Tom Herman, losing starting QB Sam Ehlinger and leaning on new coach Steve Sarkisian and the running game, The former Louisiana-Lafayette group has a chance to make a statement win in Austin Week 1. If they can pull if off, I think an undefeated season is well within reach, and potentially a season long battle with Cincinnati for that top spot.

Liberty-Nov 20 vs Louisiana

Liberty finds itself in a similar situation that BYU finds itself this season. Led by a dark horse Heisman candidate in Malik Willis, the Flames have a manageable schedule with some chances at key victories. Some of those games will be mentioned later on in this list, but the one I wanted to point out is their home game against Louisiana. If Liberty is undefeated going into this game (not impossible with only a road game at Ole Miss being the major coin flip), this could easily decide if the Flames have a serious chance at a NY6 bowl appearance.

Boise State-Sept 2 at UCF

This feels like, what wrestling fans would call, a dream match. Sure, both of these teams are past their primes in terms of breaking through the P5 glass ceiling, but it doesn’t mean that game won’t be fun. This game will show the college football world a couple of things, but biggest among them is how good Boise State is. With a new coaching staff on the blue turf, and the Mountain West wide open, this will be a showcase to see how good this Broncos team is in and out of conference.

App State-Sept 11 at Miami (FL)

App State has an interesting schedule that overlaps with a bunch of teams we could see in the top ten this season. They have a rematch with Marshall in September, this time in Boone. They also draw Louisiana in the cross divisional matchup in the Sun Belt. The biggest game I think for them is when they go to the Orange Bowl. It’s not so much that I think App State has a chance to beat Miami as we currently know them. I want to mention two things in regard to this game. The first is that Miami will be fresh off a most certain Alabama beat down in Atlanta the previous. Because of the first point, there is, or should be in my opinion, uncertainty about King’s health. If he’s not 100%, it could be a perfect situation for the Mountaineers to walk out of Coral Gables with a signature win.

UCF-Oct 16 at Cincinnati

On top of the Boise State game on UCF’s schedule, they draw Cincinnati once again. The Knights held the Bearcats fairly well during spurts of their game last season. It will be interesting to see when, on the road almost assuredly at night, how this team responds if they have a similar situation. New coach Gus Malzahn has had success turning programs around in a quick manner at different levels. I am curious if he has enough magic with the roster Josh Huepel left him and against a juggernaut in Cincinnati to pull off an upset akin to his ones at Auburn and Arkansas State.

Nevada-Oct 2 at Boise St

Much like UCF, the biggest game for Nevada is their first potential matchup against the power of the conference. While they also need to knock off San Diego State and reigning champ San Jose State, Boise St is the game you circle. Carson Strong looks to take a leap this season in his junior season. He and the Wolfpack should do decently well against Cal and Kansas State on the road, potentially winning those games. However, the Boise State game, especially as a first conference game, is where he can show his merit as a passer and playmaker.

Toledo-Sept 25 vs Ball State

Toledo was six points away from making their second MAC Championship under Mike Candle. However, a fake spike and a fumble put those dreams to bed last season. This year, outside of their trip to South Bend, the Rockets seem to be in a good position to put together a great season. The MAC season could be defined by their first conference game. The defending MAC Champs Ball State host Toledo in what could be a showdown of the two best MAC teams. The rest of the MAC schedule looks manageable, with Ohio and Bowling Green the teams the Rockets draw from the East. If Toledo can win this game, time to buy some Toledo stock, and watch it go to the moon.

UAB-Oct 2 vs Liberty

Let’s get this off the top. Georgia is going to stomp UAB. (If you come back to this and UAB has won then yes it was a reverse jinx and you’re welcome). That being said, UAB still has some interesting games on their schedule. Late in the season, the Blazers have road games against Marshall and UTSA that could tilt the entire conference landscape. However, I wanted to put this game in because of the intriguing matchup. Liberty could potentially be a top 20 win for the Blazers if they win that game, and give them a chance to be ranked in the CFP Standings down the line if they continue to win games in the middle part of their season. Plus, Bill Clark deserves a signature win out of conference.

Week 0 Preview

While there aren’t a ton of games, let alone high profile games, week 0, there are some games of note. Since Week 0 became a thing, there is usually a Hawaii game on the schedule and this year is no different. The Warriors travel to the mainland to take on UCLA in the Rose Bowl. I don’t think that this game will say anything of the Hawaii team or their chances in the Mountain West, but could be a jumping off point for UCLA, who take on LSU the following weekend.

Elsewhere in G5 Week 0 games, UConn gets their first taste of football independence since they made the jump to Division I in 2003. They take on Fresno State in Fresno. The Bulldogs look to bounce back to the levels they had when either of the Carr brothers were under center and this layup game should give them a chance to make the leap. The most notable G5 team playing is defending Mountain West Champions San Jose State hosting Southern Utah. Rounding out the G5 games is UTEP going to New Mexico State in a game they decided should be on television. Don’t watch this game.

That’s all we have on the G5 Top Ten for this week. Enjoy the crumbs of the season, as next week the real fun starts with a whole slew of games. Sound off below on your thoughts on the rankings, the system of the rankings, or the games that were chosen to highlight.