Welcome back to the 18S G5 Top Ten! After a mental bye week, the first top ten of the season is here! After a little more of a months worth of games we have a fresh top ten! With no real NY6 contender emerging, this could be the most fun G5 season since we’ve been covering them here on 18S. Let’s dive right in!
Also Considered: Memphis, App State, San Jose St, UTSA, Toledo
Week 5 Recap
Headliners
First, let’s start with the big game Friday night, where Tulane used its third string quarterback Kai Horton to knock Houston 27-24 in overtime. Tulane were up for most of the contest, leading by a score going into the fourth quarter. However, after an early score by Houston to tie the game up, both teams got tense. Houston scored with 3 minutes to go to take their first lead of the game.
Then, Horton drove the Wave down the field in 11 plays to score a TD on a fourth and goal with thirty five seconds left. In overtime, the Cougs could only muster a field goal, which put the game back in Horton’s hands. After a pass interference on Houston brought the opening play deeper into Houston territory, it took two plays to settle the result. After a short run, Horton hit Tyjae Spears on a curl for the game winning score. Houston now has an uphill climb to get back to the American Conference Championship Game. Tulane now has a straight forward path after their brief setback against Southern Miss. They have their final three games against SMU, UCF, and Cincinnati, but if they can get two wins in those games, they should be in the CCG and maybe even in contention for a NY6 Bowl.
The other conference that has a good shot at taking the conference is the Sun Belt. They have the two lone undefeated teams in the G5. With one being James Madison, who are ineligible for postseason play in their first year up at the FBS level, the only unbeaten team left is Coastal Carolina. The Chants knocked off Georgia Southern late with a 34-30 win in Conway. The game winning score was the best one I’ve seen all year, as halfback CJ Beasely ran up the middle, hurdled a safety, and waltzed into the end zone. Grayson McCall did his thing, throwing for 335 yards and 3 TDs and one rushing.
On the other side of the conference, a new Sun Belt West Champ contender emerged on Saturday. South Alabama knocked off defending Sun Belt champ Louisiana 20-17 on the final play of the game. The Ragin Cajuns gave it a good effort, tying the game with forty-two seconds remaining, but the Jaguars had enough offensive firepower, combined with well timed timeouts, to get into field goal range. The Jaguars now only seem to need to knock off Troy to be firmly in the driver’s seat of that division. It feels like a lot of these Sun Belt games are going to go down to the wire. If either Coastal or South Alabama (or even App State) can win out, they could present a strong case for their first NY6 spot.
Biggest Movers
The biggest shakeup has to be in the perceptions of the Mountain West. I came into this season that it was going to be either Boise or Air Force in the Mountain division (more or less true) and Fresno State in the West division. While Fresno may come back and salvage their season, a loss to UConn isn’t going to start that trend. That leaves the now 4-1 UNLV Runnin Rebels. They moved to 4-1 with a 31-20 win over New Mexico last Friday night. The Rebels seem to be in a position to make a run at the division and maybe the conference. They did need a comeback to knock off New Mexico, so it may be a different team trying to play as the hunted rather than the hunter. Their schedule does not let up the rest of the way. They still have games over San Jose St, Fresno State, Air Force, and the non-conference game vs the Irish at the end of the month. They will be an interesting story to follow.
So it turns out that maybe Middle Tennessee wasn’t going to be the team that beat Miami every week. While the offense (and some help from UTSA QB Frank Harris) kept up, the defense could not. The Raiders fell 45-30 at home vs the Roadrunners. I think they can still be a chaos agent in C-USA, but it feels like they need to wait until 2023 to contend for the conference.
Other Notable Results
James Madison continued their run in the FBS by knocking off Texas St 40-13. While they can’t compete for the Sun Belt, I think that if they go 11-0 this season, they should claim something because they’ve earned it. Service Academy Unders reigned supreme once again as Air Force knocked off Navy in Colorado Springs 13-10. Watching this game live, it just felt like Air Force had a more dynamic offense and just was a matter of time before they would get the win. Finally, Memphis quietly has gone 4-1 with their 24-3 win over Temple. This game was fairly close for three-ish quarters, but the Tigers pulled away late. I’m not sure what to make of this Tigers team, but their schedule will tell me more in the coming weeks. Games against Houston, East Carolina, and Tulane in consecutive weeks.
Week 6 Preview
Top of the Marquee
There are two big games this week; one on Wednesday and one on Saturday. On Wednesday, SMU and UCF make up the game that was scheduled for this past Saturday. It was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian, and the open date the two teams share this upcoming Saturday. Much like the Tulane and Houston game last Friday, this game will show how legit SMU can be against an upper tier AAC team, while UCF can use it to try and bolster their case as the second best AAC team. I will be interested to see how the offenses run for both of these sides.
The other marquee game is going to be in Las Vegas. No, not UNLV as I mentioned above, but the Shamrock Series game that 18S has, and will delve into, extensively over the rest of the week. It’s interesting that Notre Dame opened as a three point favorite in casinos. I wonder how much of that is trying to get the ND fans action when they are there and how much of that is true belief that Notre Dame can beat BYU. If that line moves, I want to monitor it to see if it moves more towards the Irish or BYU.
Conference Spotlight
American: East Carolina @ Tulane
Tulane has yet another test ahead of them. East Carolina has already played NC State close earlier this year. This starts the beginning of the Pirates’ stretch where they can play spoiler for a lot of Group of 5 teams. Tulane is the first on this list, in a potential letdown spot at home with a chance to assert control in the American.
C-USA: MTSU @ UAB, Western Kentucky @ UTSA
It was hard to pick one of these games, so I decided to pick both. UAB losing to Rice in Houston and Western Kentucky losing to Troy are both intriguing for different reasons. The advanced numbers seem to love Western Kentucky and have them favored in almost every game they have left. I want to see this rematch of the Conference USA title game. I also want to see who between MTSU and UAB are going to drop out of the conference race early on. My guess is it will be MTSU, but I am curious nonetheless.
MAC: Toledo @ Northern Illinois
So, for those who may remember last year, I was higher on Toledo in the top ten. That was especially true after they scared Notre Dame. I think that this may be the year for the Rockets. They took care of business against Central Michigan last week and now have the defending MAC Champs. The Huskies have hit regression hard in terms of one score games this season, losing a double digit lead to Ball State this past Saturday. If this is the year for HC Jason Candle, this is the game that needs to send them to the upper level of the MAC.
Mountain West: UNLV @ San Jose State
As I mentioned earlier, UNLV and San Jose State both have an opportunity here. With Fresno seemingly down losing to UConn without Jake Haener, this game matters a lot. Both teams want to have the edge of being unbeaten in the West Division. Marcus Arroyo can use this game as a measuring stick for his concept in Vegas as well. If they can win this game, on the road, they can show that the program is finally making strides in the correct direction.
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina @ ULM
Much like Cincinnati was on “Unbeaten Watch” last season, every Coastal game is a game worth monitoring. UL-Monroe has already knocked off their in-state rival this season and caused chaos in the Sun Belt West. If ULM can win this game, it may cause chaos to run through the Sun Belt East too.
Also Playing
Cincinnati, now ranked in the AP Poll, continues its march in the American with a trip down to Tampa to take on USF. The Bulls have struggled to capitalize on the momentum they seemingly had after playing Florida, which seems to spell doom for the program. The Former Fighting Malik Willis, much like Memphis, is hard to gauge but they make a trip to UMass. Air Force and James Madison look to continue their marches through their respective conferences as they have trips to Utah St and Arkansas St respectively. App State, forever lurking after their 28-3 comeback loss to James Madison, goes to Texas St to try and keep pace with Coastal Carolina.
That’s all I have for you all this week! Enjoy the games and if you’re going to Vegas have a great time!
PJ back in his Article Title bag.
Needed the Bye Week to recharge in more ways than one!
Personally, I don’t include any Independents in G5s. I don’t really consider a BYU, for instance, over a P5 a win for the G5. Is a BYU win over ND a win for the G5? Anyway, as of next year, there will be only four Independents in FBS left – ND, Army, UConn and UMass. The latter two can’t find a conference home or they would join one, especially with the CFP probably doubling the amount G5s will get based on continuing the 20% piece of the pie. Certainly scheduling as a member of a conference provides some ease, decreases costs, and provides some security if the SEC goes to a three non-conference games.
The rule that will keep JMU from a bowl is only rational if a conference wants to have the possibility that a more established conference team would be bumped from a bowl. But the Sun Belt still counts JMU’s conference wins/losses probably affecting those rankings for a bowl in the conference, particularly in their division.