So this was a brutal week for the Group of 5 teams. I officially am deeming it a G5 Blood Week. We saw four of the top ten teams go down and many different conference races tighten up. It’s why I’m slightly changing the format moving forward. The NY6 spot seemingly is going to go to the American Champion (barring some weird scenarios), so instead of focusing just on that, I’m going to diversify.
I am going to look at the top of each conference, with the top ten overall at the beginning, and highlight two things. First, I want to look at the key games from the past week. The second is I want to preview the key game for the Conference Race the upcoming Saturday.. Yes, that excludes some of the independents from this column. My response to that is; BYU is basically a Big 12/Pac-12 hybrid this season anyways and I don’t want to talk about the team Hugh Freeze coaches. So everyone wins! Let’s dive into the top ten.
Also Considered: Western Kentucky. James Madison, Air Force, Buffalo, Toledo
The Races
First, we start with the race that is almost assuredly going to get the New Years Six Bowl slot. Cincinnati went into Dallas and survived a win against SMU 29-27. The Bearcats almost lost a double digit lead late, needing a two point conversion stop to hold off the Mustangs. They remain unbeaten in conference play.
The other team unbeaten in conference play is the Tulane Green Wave. Tulane beat Memphis at home 38-28. Do not let the score fool you, this was a game dominated by Tulane from start to finish. The Green Wave have the best win of potential New Years Six teams with their win at Kansas State, so they could jump if they knock off Cincy a couple of times down the stretch.
The big head scratcher this week was in Greenville. UCF was never close to competing in their 34-13 loss to East Carolina. The Pirates, in a night game no less, look more like the team that was nationally relevant in the late 00s and early 10s. UCF suffers its first loss in conference, but the cause for concern should not end there. They welcome Cincinnati into The Bounce House Saturday afternoon. This game will be a critical game for the American race. A second loss for UCF may put the Knights into Malzahn Magic Mode. A UCF win over Cincinnati will put teams like Houston, previously believed to be knocked off, back into the race.
The next most likely conference to get the New Years Six Bid, if things fall into place, is a Sun Belt Champion. I think a 12-1 Coastal Carolina, who was idle this week, would get in over some two or three loss American teams. Coastal got some help in the Sun Belt East this week to help get there. Georgia Southern knocked off Old Dominion 28-23. Now every team in the Sun Belt East has at least one loss. It’s worth remembering that ODU has the tiebreaker over Coastal, but they have a tough stretch coming up.
As for the West, South Alabama and Troy had a weekday showdown to determine who was truly in pole position for the division. Troy became the victor in the (assumedly) best rivalry game in the state of Alabama. The Trojans won 10-6 in a bizarre game that saw both offenses struggle to put productive drives together, especially late. Nonetheless, Troy now owns the tiebreaker in a late season scenario.
Looking ahead to this upcoming week, one game stands out to me. Marshall handed James Madison their second straight loss and now head back home to take on Coastal Carolina. If the Chants want to separate themselves from the mob that is the Sun Belt East, this would be a good game to start, especially with App State also soon on their docket.
The weirdest conference to try and figure out this season has been the Mountain West. Ultimately, I think that if both the American and Sun Belt cannibalize themselves (maybe likely?) and Boise State runs the table at 11-2 (more and more likely), they would be up for the New Years Six bid. The Broncos, after losing the infamous game against UTEP, now have firm control of the Mountain Division. They knocked Air Force 19-14 in what I believe are the two best teams in the division.
However, the team that is looking to make some noise is Wyoming. They kept Utah State at arms length in their 28-14 victory late on Saturday. The Cowboys seem to be the kind of team to potentially rise to the crop in a middling year for the Mountain West Conference. They have been good not great in the post Josh Allen years, and the adjusted curve for the conference may help the dependable Cowboys.
As for the West Division, it is seemingly wide open. This upcoming Saturday will help separate the wheat from the chaff. Fresno State hosts San Diego State. The Bulldogs have struggled with the loss of their starting QB Jake Haener, but Logan Fife has held his own the past two weeks. This will be a big test for these Bulldogs, who have the tiebreaker over San Jose State.
While C-USA and our final conference seemingly have no chance at the New Years Six, it does not mean that they are without drama. UTSA needed all the help of Frank Harris and their offense to get a key victory over North Texas. UTSA now sits in first place all by themselves, while a handful of one and two loss hopefuls look to try and take down the defending champs.
The next contender appears to be Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers, who lost already to UTSA, knocked off UAB in a weeknight showdown to push the Blazers further down the standings. Western looks to have their fourth shot at UTSA in two years if they can continue to run the table.
If they are to run the table, their game this Saturday is crucial. They host North Texas in a mid afternoon showdown. Considering both of these teams have close losses to UTSA, the winner of this game will have the target on their back by the rest of the conference the rest of the season.
Finally, we have the MAC. The MAC has had an off year, even by the curve of MAC standards. There hasn’t been one team to truly separate itself from the pack. That’s when I honestly think the MAC is the most fun. The teams are so similar that if one becomes an outlier, it becomes a hunter-hunted season like we usually see with a Boise State, UCF, or Cincinnati season.
I thought that would be Toledo, but alas, that was not to be. The Rockets blew a fourth quarter double digit lead to fall to Buffalo 34-27. Buffalo may become that team by the end of the season, and they earned this comeback win. The Bulls are now firmly at the top of the MAC East, with Ohio and Bowling Green (I know that’s stunning to me too) nipping on their heels.
The West is now opened up. Along with Toledo’s first conference loss, Ball State lost their second conference game. They fell in a low scoring effort against Eastern Michigan, 20-16. There is a path for the Eagles, who knocked off Arizona State this season, to get to their first MAC Championship Game. Their first step comes this week at home. They host the Rockets on the gray turf. A win here will further muck up the MAC West, but give the Eagles key tiebreakers over all of Toledo, Ball State, and Western Michigan.
That’s all I have for you all today! Please let me know how you feel about the new format as I want this to be great for everyone! Hope you all enjoy the next week of games. (It’s our last one without MAC-tion).
The Sun Belt standings image doesn’t have records on it, which I assume is a “uploaded the wrong file” error. Great writeup as always!
It’s a challenge to see who can fill in the columns by memory.
Thank you! I was so excited about the idea that I forgot to put one of the conferences on there!
Kind of harsh on Liberty. I understood having them at 7 after their struggle session in the win over Gardner-Webb, but they smoked BYU this week and their only loss is at Wake Forest by one point. I’d have them at least at 6 here, if not as high as 4.
One of my favorite 18 S articles each week.
Nice to see that this week’s ESPN Gameday make this eleventh trip to a FCS school and fourth to a HBCU, Jacksonville State, this weekend. Deion Sanders has had an economic as well as an athletic impact on the school. Even without a similar athletic budget to a G5, Jackson State has averaged 34,207 fans at home games this season, a higher average home attendance than Stanford, Maryland, Wake Forest, Memphis, Houston, and SMU. Jacksonville State, of course, is joining C-USA next year. With only one or two non-conference opponents scheduled from 2023-26, they should be building lucrative P5 buy-in games into those schedules. They are renovating their stadium to the tune of $80 million and have a new practice field. They’ll probably do all they can to keep Sanders especially with the move to G5 and negotiating those future non-conference games. C-USA has the lowest revenue payout of all the G5 schools – $400k last year – and has seen three teams last year (to Sunbelt) and five more next year (to American) leave in ’23. With the low revenue distribution, those P5 non-conference games take on added significance for schools. I wonder who the guest picker is on Gameday this weekend.
I agree that the MAC has been fun and unpredictable even by the oddsmakers. In conference play,
last week (Week 8), five of the six teams favored lost and the sixth did not cover.Week 7 – three of the five favored teams lost and a fourth did not cover.Week 6 – three of the six favored teams lost.You would have thought that as the season progressed, oddsmakers would get better and not worse. You don’t often see only two of twelve conference teams have a positive record Against the Spread. (Buffalo 5-1-1 and Ohio 4-3) Two others (Akron and Toledo) are 4-4 ATS. The other eight have negative records ATS. Wild. Fun.