For one weekend the college football world fell in love with Purdue. Thanks in part to the story surrounding terminally ill Purdue fan Tyler Trent and the Boilermakers’ easy win over Ohio State it was an important weekend for one of the biggest upsets of the season. Let’s see how things shake out with our latest poll.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 8-0 | 58-21 W vs. Tennessee |
| 2 | Clemson | 7-0 | 41-7 W vs. NC State |
| 3 | Notre Dame (+1) | 7-0 | BYE |
| 4 | LSU (+1) | 7-1 | 19-3 W vs. Miss State |
| 5 | Michigan (+1) | 7-1 | 21-7 W vs. Michigan St. |
| 6 | Georgia (+1) | 6-1 | BYE |
| 7 | Florida (+1) | 6-1 | BYE |
| 8 | UCF (+1) | 7-0 | 37-10 W vs. East Carolina |
| 9 | Oklahoma (+1) | 6-1 | 52-27 W vs. TCU |
| 10 | Texas (+1) | 6-1 | BYE |
| 11 | Washington State (+3) | 6-1 | 34-20 W vs. Oregon |
| 12 | Ohio State (-9) | 7-1 | 49-20 L vs. Purdue |
| 13 | West Virginia | 5-1 | BYE |
| 14 | Appalachian State (+1) | 5-1 | 27-17 W vs. Lafayette |
| 15 | Kentucky (+1) | 6-1 | 14-7 W vs. Vanderbilt |
| 16 | Iowa (+1) | 6-1 | 23-0 W vs. Maryland |
| 17 | Washington (+1) | 6-2 | 27-13 W vs. Colorado |
| 18 | Penn State (+1) | 5-2 | 33-28 W vs. Indiana |
| 19 | Texas A&M (NR) | 5-2 | BYE |
| 20 | Oregon (-8) | 5-2 | 34-20 L vs. Washington St. |
Out: Cincinnati
In: Texas A&M
Ohio State takes a big tumble in my rankings. They have the Penn State win and then a large drop until their next best victory. Purdue now becomes an interesting team to watch (33rd in AP voting) with 3 close losses and 4 straight wins while still being alive in their division.
The rankings actually remained quite stable over the weekend, despite the major slip-up from the Buckeyes. Washington State got a nice bump from their emotional victory hosting Oregon. Just about everyone else slid up one spot.
UCF won its 20th straight game, this time without quarterback McKenzie Milton. Their real season begins now with 4 tough games to close it out, including Temple who just knocked off undefeated Cincinnati.
With USC’s loss to Utah (who I wrestled with placing in the rankings this week) it feels like we’re awfully close to using a Sharpie to deny the Pac-12 a playoff spot once again. Everyone in the South division has 2 losses, including 2 losses in conference play. Up in the North, Washington, Washington State, and Stanford only have 1 loss in conference but they have yet to play each other.
I had a feeling Clemson would roll over NC State (are we talking enough about Trevor Lawrence and his 10th nationally passer rating as a true freshman?) and drop the Wolfpack nearly out of the AP poll. This NC State team could go 10-2 and we might not learn anything about them.
Week 9 Games to Watch
Appalachian State (-8) at Georgia Southern – There are 3 Sun Belt teams undefeated in league play, the rest all have at least 2 losses. These 2 teams plus Troy are those unbeaten and they are in the same division. Sun Belt divisional carnage! You may recall, both of these coaches were featured on our recent Doing Good Things Report from last week, too. It’s time for App State to grab a big win after moving into the AP Poll this week. Mountaineers win 28-24.
Clemson (-16) at Florida State – Our writers Slack chat spent a lot of time on Monday debating Florida State as the toughest remaining opponent. Meanwhile, Clemson’s run to the playoff looks far too easy. That’s not college football. The Seminoles looking far more formidable for Notre Dame becomes a thing after this weekend. Tigers win 24-17.
Wisconsin (-6) at Northwestern – The Big Ten West is WIDE open still, you guys. We’re currently looking at a 4-way tie at the top including these pair of teams. I have to believe it’s been a long time since Wisconsin suffered their 3rd loss this early in the season and I’m betting they’ve stabilized a bit since a humbling loss in Ann Arbor. Badgers win 30-13.
*Game of the Week* Florida (+7) vs. Georgia [Jacksonville, FL] – Last year was super ugly for the Gators in a 35-point beat down courtesy of Georgia. This is a massive game although in a weird way something about it doesn’t feel that huge–is it the looming Crimson Tide? At any rate, this is probably the battle for the East division assuming Kentucky isn’t truly going to finish strong. Despite their recent troubles, I trust the Georgia collection of offensive playmakers to take this rivalry. Bulldogs win 27-23.
Iowa (+5.5) at Penn State – Remember the B1G West division mentioned above, well Iowa is right in the thick of things, too. The talent imbalance says this is a win for Penn State who also have Michigan and Wisconsin coming right up after this. No, that’s not very fun for me. I’m interested in seeing James Franklin lose 5 out of 6 games. Hawkeyes win 33-30.
South Florida (+7.5) at Houston – Four teams in the AAC remain unbeaten within their league and that will be reduced to at least 3 teams with this matchup. Houston is a super quiet 6-1 even though they have a bunch of double-digit victories. South Florida isn’t getting much respect here and that’s probably due to numerous cracks showing in a close win over UConn last week. This should be a fun shoot-out. Bulls win 45-38.
Washington State (+3) at Stanford – This is the highest scoring Pac-12 team versus the second-lowest scoring Pac-12 team. That Cardinal offense has bogged down so much this year you question whether they should be favored even at home. They’ve lost the last two in this series, as well. Not so fast! I’m certain the Cougars will be mentally drained from last week’s win over Oregon and struggle to kick in gear this weekend. Cardinal win 24-20.
Last Week:
3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Season:
39-20 SU, 29-30 ATS
“Are we talking enough about Trevor Lawrence…?”
Uh…yes? I feel like he’s been talked about all season. If anything it’s only the last few weeks anyone has talked about how good Travis Etienne is for them.
Well, talk more!!
LOL
I seriously don’t think I heard anything about Clemson’s running game before last week.
I did a double take–You have Appy State beating “Lafayette” last week 27-17. Being as Lafayette (PA) is an 1-6 Patriot League team, I was really confused, but then looked it up and it was Louisiana Lafayette that Appy played. lol regional consciousness.
Hey Princeton Guy, there are other football teams beyond the Ivy League’s expansive boundaries.
Given that the playoff committee rankings are a week away, here are a few predictions:
1. If ND wins this weekend, they will be ahead of Clemson in the initial rankings.
2. If both ND and Clemson win out, Clemson will have the higher ranking at the end of the season.
3. But, it won’t be the case that they both win out.
Here is this week’s still-possible playoff disaster scenario (realize the odds of this playing out perfectly are minuscule, but this only requires one upset as of today):
13-0 Clemson
12-0 Notre Dame
12-1 SEC Champion Georgia (beats Alabama close in SECCG)
12-1 Big12 Champion Oklahoma
12-1 SEC West Champion Alabama
12-1 Big10 Champion Ohio State
13-0 UCF, riding a >25 game winning streak
Who is in?
1. Undefeated ACC champ
2. Undefeated Notre Dame
3. One loss SEC champ
4. One loss B1G champ
I am really unconcerned about any of these scenarios threatening an undefeated Notre Dame. I could see ND in the top spot if the one loss B1G champ was Michigan and Stanford wins the PAC12 North or VT wins the ACC Coastal.
I rule out OSU immediately, as their loss is clearly the worst of the bunch.
GA/Bama is tough, but I’d have to put in GA and leave Alabama out.
ND is in
Clemson is in
It’s then a toss up between OU & UCF – I’d go UCF
All defensible positions, but in reality is the committee going to pick UCF over Bama? (Especially if the loss is a close one in SECCG) I highly doubt that.
So I go for what WOULD happen (opposed from what SHOULD):
1 Clemson
2 ND
3 Georgia
4 Bama
Then I guess they would give UCF a game against Oklahoma in some bowl, if that is possible, IDK.
ND is in good shape now. The only nightmare that even had a shot of keeping a 12-0 Irish team out of the top-4 was Clemson and tOSU both undefeated plus SEC silliness that would get Bama in plus their champ. Now that Oklahoma and tOSU have lost, ND fully controls destiny.
The committee hasn’t ruled out teams because of bad losses. They pick the teams with the best wins. So far it seems like a loss is a loss, and it’s actually better to lose to a bad team, because if you lose to a good team, that is a quality win you didn’t get.
For example. It would have been better for Michigan to beat us, and lose to someone like Minnesota.
I’m using my logic though – take your logic to your 4 teams in
Are you trying to predict what the committee will do? That’s the impression I got. If so, you should try to use the logic they have been going on historically.
If you’re just listing your personal top 4, then yeah, worst loss is a fine way to pick your teams.
Are you people insane? UCF over a 1 loss Bama that loses to Georgia? Never ever ever happen nor should it!
To follow back to this: I put this in the order that I think is likeliest to be the actual standings in the event this comes to fruition, but I honestly think style points would have a huge impact on the last spot (I think Clemson and ND would be locks, and Georgia would be a near-lock – i.e., they would have to win on a clearly incorrect call or something similarly fluky to not make the top-4).
I think UCF has the worst factor working against them (schedule), so they’re out. Ohio State’s loss was so brutal that it would be hard to get past, even if their best wins are better than Oklahoma’s. I think the non-conference championship would probably be the tiebreaker between Bama and Oklahoma. And so, absent scores for going forward, I’d guess it ends in that order.
Where’s 1-loss Washington State? I desperately need Mike Leach on national television calling the committee a bunch of profane names for not getting in. After ND in the playoff, this is the #1 request I have (although I guess #2 would be Wazzu sneaking in at #4 and putting up 50 points on Bama).
I was trying to go with the “minimize upsets” approach. Wazzou not favored over Stanford and (presumably) Washington at the moment, at least.
In this (extremely unlikely) scenario, I really don’t think Bama has any chance of getting in. They’ve gotten in in the past over two loss conference champs or “weak” unbeatens like UCF, but they wouldn’t get in if they lost one of their only difficult games, if there are 3 other 1 loss conference champs to consider.
Clemson, ND, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Bama and UCF would no-doubt be out. Clemson, ND, and Georgia would no-doubt be in. That leaves Ohio State and Oklahoma, and I think Oklahoma will win that beauty pageant.
Ohio State’s Purdue loss would be an albatross, IMO, and Oklahoma would likely close out with back-to-back top 15 wins over West Virginia and the Big 12 title game opponent, probably Texas or West Virginia. I think a last-second loss to Texas and wins over West Virginia and Texas (probably) will outweigh Ohio State’s wins over Michigan and a quite-possibly unranked Big Ten title game opponent. Penn State might not finish the regular season ranked either.
For folks making plans two weeks out, the Irish will play at either 7:15 or 7:30 on either ABC or ESPN. Nonsense like this, and worse, the VT game which could have kicked off at either 3:30 or 8:00 until 6 days before the game, make that NBC contract look even better.
This seems less like a “Game Time Announcement” than a “Game Time Approximation”
These 3 games are still TBD for next week, but I guess none of them are ESPN/ABC property?
TX-WVU (Fox?)
UGA-KY (CBS?)
Stam-UW (Also Fox?)
All seem like better games to be in the ABC slot if an option
Game Time Announcement, is that like a game time injury decision? Basically they won’t bother to announce it until game time?
There are so many good games that day, and our kickoff time is terrible for watching them: Penn State-Michigan kicks off at 3:45, meaning that we might have to choose between the end of that and the beginning of ours (edit: whoops, nevermind, I guess if we get the 7:15 slot we’d be led in by that game), and Bama-LSU is at 8, meaning we’ll miss the vast majority of that on.
On top of those already-scheduled games, Texas-West Virginia is either going to get a 3:30, 7:15, or 8 kick, and Georgia-Kentucky is very likely to get a 3:30 kick.
I guess, given all that, we should hope for the 7:30 slot.
1. ND wins out
2/3. scUM Big10
3/2. Clemson ACC meh SOS
4. ‘Bama loses to LSU in a squeaker but still gets to play in SECCG where they pound Gators.
The horror
In this scenario the records of these teams are ND 12-0, UM 12-1, Clemson 13-0, and ‘Bama 12-1. If ‘Bama rolls in the SECCG they’re 100% going to be the highest seeded one loss team, so if you want to scare ND fans with Alabama in the first round it should be:
1. Undefeated ACC champion Clemson
2. Undefeated Notre Dame
3. One loss SEC champion Alabama
4. One loss B1G champion Michigan
Debatable
Loss to #1>loss to #9 and scUM would’ve beaten #15,#24,#17, #11. ‘Bama would’ve only beaten #9, #14.
Why the horror? Eff that. Bring on Bama so ND can give them all wedgies and take their friggin’ lunch money. Clemson and their goldielocks QB can get some too. Believe, player.
Here’s a non-ND-centric question for the commentariat: For UCF to make the playoffs they have to go undefeated. If they do are there any one-loss P5 teams that UCF makes it over? Are there any two-loss P5 teams that make it over UCF?
In over 1 loss Iowa and 1 loss NC State. If Michigan loses to PSU, then dominates the rest of the way, including a B1G championship over Top 12 Iowa, Michigan’s got a chance to end up ahead of UCF. Also, if LSU lose by 1 to Bama, who then disbands their team the next day due to a discovery that every player over the past decade, including the current team, has been paid by the university to deal meth on the side, and then LSU wins out, LSU might sneak in over UCF.
I think only the LSU scenario is truly likely though.
I agree about NC State. If they finish the year 11-1 without going to the ACC CG they’d definitely be out. Their best win would be… maybe Boston College? Not good. Iowa would have wins over Penn State, Iowa State, Purdue, and OSU or UM in the B1G Championship game. I think Iowa would make it over UCF in that scenario.
2-loss SEC or B1G conference champions would also cause a problem for UCF. A UM team with losses to ND and Penn State and wins over Iowa (B1G title), Wisconsin, and OSU would have a pretty good shot of making it over UCF.
My ideal CFP right now is probably:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. UM or OSU
4. UCF
Which would require UCF winning out, a massive amount of chaos among 1 loss teams, and Clemson losing twice, but would cause three P5 conferences to be left out which would be hilarious.
I’ll never root for Michigan to win a game. I can’t. But holy hell it would be incredible if Michigan won out, got the 3 seed, their fans got excited about Michigan being “back,” and then the ND defense just destroyed them again. That would quite possibly be the most satisfying possible ND season, short of a National Championship.
If the committee released rankings today, where would they have UCF? The chairman, in every statement he’s made so far, has been sure to mention that WE DO NOT LOOK AT WHAT YOU DID LAST SEASON (emphasis his). I’d have their odds of being ranked, as of today, as:
Top 15: 0.1%
Top 20: 35%
Top 25: 98%
There’s no way they’d leave them out of the Top 25, right? There schedule is god awful, but I think you’d have too much fury directed their way if they did that. But there’s also no way they have them Top 15, right? There schedule the rest of the way is actually somewhat respectable, and if they won out, it would be tough not to move them up with other teams losing. Basically, I’m guessing every 1 loss P5 team would be ahead of them today, plus 5-7ish 2 loss P5 teams.
Would really like them to consider our bowl win over LSU from last season.
The winner of USF-UCF will be the non-Power 5 team in the NY6 Bowls. They will have them both close enough that it is not embarrassing.
“We don’t look at what you did last season, but we certainly look at what you did decades ago, because if you won mythical NCs in the decades prior to this one, you will draw eyeballs to the television set, and honestly that’s what we really care about.”
I don’t think they’d be outside the top 15. The committee puts a big value on record first, then quality wins, then adjusts for SOS, “good” losses, etc.
Alabama got in last year as a non-champ partly because of their history over the last 10 years, IMO. If we both win out I think Clemson will be ranked above us for the same reason. They might not admit it but I definitely think there’s a squishy “program direction” factor in there to a degree.
I do not believe Trevor Lawrence is being talked about enough! He might be the only person that could prevent an Alabama National Title!