It was a rough week for my picks against the spread. Thank goodness this is all pretend money. With another fabulous week in the books we’re inching closer to the real rankings being released. Beginning tonight, so set your iPhone alarms.
Here’s our website’s Top 20 after week 9.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 8-0 | BYE |
| 2 | Clemson | 8-0 | 59-10 W vs. Florida State |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 8-0 | 44-22 W vs. Navy |
| 4 | LSU | 7-1 | BYE |
| 5 | Georgia (+1) | 7-1 | 36-17 W vs. Florida |
| 6 | Michigan (-1) | 7-1 | BYE |
| 7 | UCF (+1) | 7-0 | BYE |
| 8 | Oklahoma (+1) | 7-1 | 51-14 W vs. Kansas State |
| 9 | Washington State (+2) | 7-1 | 41-38 W vs. Stanford |
| 10 | Ohio State (+2) | 7-1 | BYE |
| 11 | West Virginia (+2) | 6-1 | 58-14 W vs. Baylor |
| 12 | Kentucky (+3) | 7-1 | 15-14 W vs. Missouri |
| 13 | Florida (-6) | 6-2 | 36-17 L vs. Georgia |
| 14 | Penn State (+4) | 6-2 | 30-24 W vs. Iowa |
| 15 | Utah (NR) | 6-2 | 41-10 W vs. UCLA |
| 16 | Houston (NR) | 7-1 | 57-36 W vs. USF |
| 17 | Fresno State (NR) | 7-1 | 50-20 W vs. Hawaii |
| 18 | Michigan State (NR) | 5-3 | 23-13 W vs. Purdue |
| 19 | Georgia Southern (NR) | 7-1 | 34-14 W vs. App State |
| 20 | Texas (-10) | 6-2 | 38-35 L vs. Okie State |
Out: Appalachian State, Iowa, Washington, Texas A&M, Oregon
In: Utah, Houston, Fresno State, Michigan State, Georgia Southern
We have quite a bit of a shake up near the bottom of the rankings ahead of tonight’s first College Football Playoff rankings. Our top 4 remains static as this should be the committee’s same top 4 but maybe not! Notice I jumped Georgia ahead of Michigan as I believe the Dawgs have a better resume now–and likely are flat out better anyway.
We might want to begin discussing a 12-1 Washington State making the playoffs. They might get there not having faced a ranked team at the end of the season. Boy, the Pac-12 is looking ugly right now.
Kentucky is looking like some form of a team of destiny for their program ceiling. They haven’t scored 30 against a Power 5 team yet this year, didn’t score 20 in any of their 3 October games, and yet they are still in play for the SEC Championship.
On the one hand, Florida benefits greatly from a bunch of other teams losing in the back half of the Top 20 and they don’t fall too far themselves. On the other hand, they’re sitting at 3rd in the SEC East and even if they finish 10-2 they might not find themselves in a major bowl game.
Let’s take a look at where the bowl games would stand as of right now:
Bowl Game Projections
Cotton: Alabama vs. LSU
Orange: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Sugar: Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Michigan vs. Washington State
Peach: UCF vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Watching the Pirate upend Michigan in the Rose Bowl would fill my heart with so much joy.
Unfortunately, the bottom half of the Top 12 is likely to be filled with a couple unappealing programs awaiting a major bowl game. I can’t even imagine what it would look like if neither UCF or Houston earn one of the these bowls, either. Admittedly, there’s a small chance of that happening.
Week 10 Games to Watch
Temple (+10.5) at UCF – Temple’s resume isn’t great outside of their league but they remain unbeaten in the AAC to this point. Battle for first place in the east division! This begins a really tough stretch for UCF that will test their talent and depth. Knights win 28-20.
Georgia (-9.5) at Kentucky – It’s been a wild ride for the Wildcats. If they win this game their probability of going to the SEC Championship go through the roof. Yeah, that’s not happening. It was fun while it lasted! Bulldogs win 32-10.
West Virginia (+2) at Texas – The love that Texas has been getting this year hasn’t made much sense to me. We know the Oklahoma game rarely means anything for either the Sooners or Horns. Beyond that, Texas has been a lot closer to mediocre. I’m not okay with West Virginia being dogs here. Mountaineers win 44-38.
Penn State (+10) at Michigan – The offense for Penn State is super reliant on Trace McSorley and I can’t see that ending well against a Don Brown defense. Especially since McSorley was banged up last week. This is Michigan’s last challenge prior to The Game and they should take care of business. Wolverines win 27-13.
Boston College (-2.5) at Virginia Tech – Things haven’t been great for Virginia Tech since that Notre Dame visit and now they’re home dogs to Boston College as the Eagles come in ranked in the AP Poll. I’m sneaking this game in for the week because both teams only have 1 loss in the ACC and are still alive for their divisions. Hokies win 35-17.
*Game of the Week* Alabama (-14) at LSU – Everyone is expecting Alabama to get punched in the mouth for the first time this season in Death Valley. Okay, we’ll see how that goes. Probably not too well for the home team. Tide win 42-23.
Stanford (+9.5) at Washington – The loser of this game…yikes it’s not pretty. One team will have 3 losses in the sad Pac-12 and 4 losses overall. It seems Vegas knows something with Washington as heavy favorites despite their offense underachieving more than anyone else in the country. Stanford is really mediocre this year and I suppose Washington will hang on at home. Huskies win 23-20.
Last Week:
3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS
Season:
42-25 SU, 30-37 ATS
Seeing Urban Meyer eating his sad pizza after a bowl game defeat at the hands of UCF would be amazing.
There’s not enough props for this one.
It’s crazy to think that there are 2 Top 10-ish teams playing at home this weekend that are 2 score underdogs. And both in the same conference. That can’t happen very often.
Seems like a great week to start a 12 team playoff.
#12 Kentucky at # 5 Georgia – Winner plays at LSU
#11 West Virginia at #6 Michigan – Winner plays at Notre Dame
#10 Ohio State at #7 UCF – Winner plays at Clemson
#9 Washington State at #8 Oklahoma – Winner plays at Alabama
God bless you, sir
I am definitely taking Alabama +14.
Is any team a single digit underdog to Bama this year?
Not sure about that, but if you give me Bama and two touchdowns, I’ll take it.
Georgia, in theory, will be a 7-9ish pt dog when they play in the SEC title game.
Some/multiple of the matchups in the playoff could be single digit lines. S&P+ has Bama as favored by 2 over Clemson, 4 over Oklahoma, 5 over Michigan, 6 over Georgia, and 9 over ND. I tend to think most of those numbers would be low compared to what actual lines posted by sportsbooks are, since people will be taking Bama at almost any number unless some achilles heel is revealed soon. You could probably add 4 on each of those numbers to get what a good sportsbook would open it at.
And maybe to illustrate that point, S&P+ has LSU at 13th, and suggests a 14pt gap between the two teams. Add in a few points for home field and the line should be 11ish, but opened at 14.5.
Not to explain the joke, but nd09 was pointing out the line is reversed in the article. It should be Alabama -14.
Heh missed that….I think I’ll take Bama +14 in all scenarios this year as well.
That said I was really replying to IrishChamp who asked if any team would be a single digit dog to Bama this year.
Is there a landing page where these are regularly posted? I can find prior weeks but not this week’s.
Eric, didn’t you always say that with two talented SEC teams you’d take the underdog for a large spread? I’m tempted to follow *that* advice here.
My love for Tua runs too deep.
*** Please hit READ MORE at the bottom of the comment to get paragraphs *** This first sentence is basically the TL;DR – A lengthy observation I wanted to write about why the CFP committee isn’t a serious group of people that ranks teams in order of who’s best: Mississippi State is 3-3 against power 5 teams. They were not really in any of the three games that lost, their closest loss was by 7 to two loss Florida, but Mississippi State only gained 202 yards that game and never threatened the endzone, kicking a field goal from the 17 in the first half was the closest they ever got. They are dissimilar to, say, Iowa State (ranked below them), in that they have zero great wins. They are dissimilar to say, Northwestern (not even ranked), in that they are not on a winning streak that makes them appear to be getting better. They are dissimilar to Syracuse in, well, many ways. Syracuse, again ranked below MSU, has a better record overall, as should be highlighted with only 2 losses. They have a better record against FBS teams. They have a better record against power 5 teams. Both teams only have two wins that could be considered anything close to quality opponents, Mississippi State has beaten Auburn and Texas A&M while Syracuse has beaten NC State and Florida State. While MSU was non-competitive in their three losses, Syracuse lost in overtime to Pittsburgh and lost a fourth quarter lead to lose by four against #2 Clemson. Why is it important that Mississippi State be inflated above their season accomplishments? Because there’s general agreement that an undefeated non-SEC team holds the season’s most impressive win among CFP competitors. In order to justify putting a one-loss team with one elite win above the non-SEC undefeated team with the season’s best win the committee needs to slip in statements about quantity of quality wins, so they make believe that middle and bottom tier SEC teams are better than their accomplishments could possibly justify. Now fans of the conference are more than welcome to their biases, I’m certainly biased toward teams I cheer for. Even sports networks with financial interest in a conference or perhaps a long-running simmering feud with teams in question can be forgiven for their bias. But this is exactly what the CFP committee was put in place to avoid: a meme taking over the playoff selection, “the SEC is the alpha and the omega of college football”. If we revisit just a few months ago we put that theory to the test once again. The SEC had two great teams last year who won both the CFP semi-finals, but outside of that the conference had two wins and five losses when matched up against similar strength teams of other conferences. That horrible showing came among exactly the teams we are talking about, the supposedly elite depth of the conference. Now at the top of the rankings this week’s shenanigans will… Read more »
Couldn’t agree more. With all of it. These rankings would make even Adelaide Byrd blush.
And there is simply no rational basis for jumping LSU over ND. It makes zero sense. V. Tech is a better than or at least as good a win as Miami. Ball St., as good if not better than SE LA. Stanford, as good and probably better than Auburn (Stan’s three losses are to the 4, 8, and 15 teams by committee rankings). Vandy is their beloved SEC, so by all definitions that must be a better win than LA Tech. Wake and Ole Miss are a wash, at best. Michigan is better than GA, by the committee’s own figgin’ rankings. Miss St and Pitt are probably a wash, but I’ll even go so far as to give that one to LSU. And, of course, FL is much better than Navy….. but LSU EFFING LOST THAT GAME.
Mix the wins up however you want, it always comes out the same. ND’s wins are all at least as good with the exception of maybe the Miss St. win, ND’s best win is better than LSU’s BY THE COMMITTEE’S OWN STANDARDS, and ND has no losses. Find an argument that LSU should be ranked higher – I dare you.
Ranking LSU above ND while at the same time ranking GA below UM is proof positive that the committee doesn’t even bother to hide what it’s truly up to. I mean, how hard would it have been to simply rank Mich below GA? Pretty easy justification for that one, I think. And, if you do that, then at least you have a colorable (albeit still weak) argument that LSU’s trouncing of GA and its loss to a supposedly strong FL team should count more than ND’s “bare” win against UM despite it’s undefeated record. (I’m not saying I’d agree with the argument; just saying it would pass the giggle test). But to rank GA below Mich and STILL jump LSU past ND is tantamount to saying: “We don’t care what it looks like. Wins over SEC teams simply count more. Period.”
So another year will pass, one or two SEC teams will be bomb, another bunch of SEC teams will get @ss whoopin’s in bowl games, everyone will make excuses that SEC teams lose bowl games because they only try hard in playoff and NC’s, and next year we’ll do it all over again. It’s nonsense.
ok, maybe Miami is a better win than V Tech at this point, but certainly not by enough.
More importantly – if you have LSU jump the Irish because of quality wins, they should also jump Bama and Clemson.
These rankings are insane. If we win out and are ranked fourth behind a one loss SEC team, it will be hard for me not to do something crazy.