With 6 out of our top 11 experiencing idleness things were quiet in week 10. Not so much this weekend as a pair of games will feature undefeated teams sure to reset the national playoff picture. We’re recapping the week that was before looking ahead to major events in Tuscaloosa and Minneapolis.

This Week’s Biggest Winner: Kyle Wittingham, Head Coach, Utah

The Utes took a big road win over Washington and thanks to the USC loss (more on that directly below) now move into pole position in the Pac-12 South division. This should be Wittingham’s second straight Pac-12 title game appearance and maybe his first major bowl game appearance since moving up from the Mountain West.

This Week’s Biggest Loser: Clay Helton, Head Coach, USC

Things started so well for USC against Oregon and then…destruction from the Ducks. The inevitable is happening for Clay Helton–after spending most of 2017 in the top 10 he’s now 10-11 overall and staring at a firing sooner rather than later. The Trojans face two road games (ASU, Cal) before returning home for the finale against UCLA. A clean sweep (for an 8-4 season) probably isn’t enough and maybe one more loss could have the administration cutting bait before bowl season.

18 Stripes Top 20 Poll

OUT: SMU

IN: Memphis

Top G5 Teams According to the 1st CFP Poll

(most likely league title game opponents in parentheses)

No. 20 Cincinnati (7-1) #35 SP+
Remaining: UConn, at USF, Temple, at Memphis, (Navy, Memphis, or SMU)

No. 21 Memphis (8-1) #19 SP+
Remaining: at Houston, at USF, Cincinnati, (UCF or Cincinnati)

No. 22 Boise State (7-1) #45 SP+
Remaining: Wyoming, New Mexico, at Utah St, at Colorado St, (SDSU)

No. 24 Navy (7-1) #31 SP+
Remaining: at Notre Dame, SMU, at Houston, Army, (Cincinnati or UCF)

No. 25 SMU (8-1) #40 SP+
Remaining: East Carolina, at Navy, Tulane, (Cincinnati or UCF)

In the event Notre Dame wins out and is matched up with the top G5 team in the country it’s likely it’ll be one of these teams.

If we’re basing things solely off who won’t lose the rest of the way Boise State has by far the most friendly schedule from this group. With 4 out of these top 5 coming out of the AAC there’s a good chance they all devour each other as Boise State scooches on past in the final playoff rankings.

However, we do have to consider the possibility of a 2-loss AAC champion being ahead of anyone else in the country for that coveted G5 major bowl bid. In fact, that kind of seems like the most likely scenario.

Other G5 Teams Lurking

SDSU (7-1) #68 SP+
Remaining: Nevada, Fresno State, at Hawaii, BYU, (Boise State or Air Force)

UCF (7-2) #16 SP+
Remaining: at Tulsa, at Tulane, USF, (Navy, Memphis, SMU)

Louisiana Tech (7-1) #74 SP+
Remaining: North Texas, at Marshall, at UAB, UTSA, (Marshall or FAU)

App State (7-1) #36 SP+
Remaining: at South Carolina, at Georgia St, Texas St, at Troy, (Louisiana)

Air Force (7-2) #41 SP+
Remaining: at New Mexico, at Colorado St, Wyoming, (SDSU)

Wyoming (6-2) #70 SP+
Remaining: at Boise, at Utah St, Colorado St, at Air Force, (SDSU)

Louisiana (6-2) #37 SP+
Remaining: at Coastal Carolina, at South Alabama, Troy, Louisiana-Monroe, (App State)

I would think all of these current teams with 2 losses are out of the race if we assume the AAC champion will have 2 losses or fewer. The only exception is UCF who themselves is in the AAC and carrying a loss to Pitt on their schedule. They are only one game back of Cincinnati in the AAC East division but lost to the Bearcats back on October 4th. That means UCF likely needs Cincinnati to drop their final difficult two games of the regular season given the Bearcats should roll in their next two contests.

Appalachian State is an intriguing option, especially if they win this week. The Sun Belt isn’t going to get much love from the playoff committee, yet, the Mountaineers would have wins over North Carolina and South Carolina (both on the road) and a lone loss to a better-than-people-think Georgia Southern program.

I’d still expect a 2-loss AAC champion to get the nod but you never know.

Week 11 Games to Watch

Penn State (-7) at Minnesota – Fresh off a new contract extension that has a buyout which drops from $10 million to $4.5 million in 2021 when he comes to Notre Dame could put P.J. Fleck in Minnesota through 2026 the national spotlight now turns to the Gophers. On the account of the loser of Iowa/Wisconsin will being 3 games back and the winner still 2 games back, this is a massive game for Minnesota to stay in command of the B1G West division. I think they get it done. Gophers 27-24.

LSU (+6.5) at Alabama – ESPN GameDay decided to go to Tuscaloosa this weekend instead of Minnesota. Fair enough, although this will be Alabama’s 47th and LSU’s 30th appearance in TWWL’s main event and a record 11th GameDay matchup between these two schools. Alabama has won 9 of those games, by the way. It would seem like Alabama’s defense is vulnerable to lose this one if Tua isn’t 100% but Saban’s track record is too much to pick against. Crimson Tide 32-30.

Iowa (+9.5) at Wisconsin – Iowa fell off the radar a bit following back-to-back close losses to Michigan and Penn State in cross-divisional matchups. Despite a pair of losses, Iowa is only allowing 9.4 points per game in the Big Ten. However, they are only scoring 18.2 per game and that likely won’t cut it in Madison. Badgers 24-16.

Appalachian State (+5) at South Carolina – Even though we discussed App State climbing back into the major bowl picture I wonder how much pressure there is on Will Muschamp to win this game? It’s year 4 and a loss here drops the Gamecocks down to 4-6 with Texas A&M and Clemson still waiting. It could get dark for Coach Boom but I think he holds on this weekend. Gamecocks 30-23.

Iowa State (+14.5) at Oklahoma – Matt Campbell won his last visit to Norman back in 2017 in a season where the Cyclones defeated 3 ranked teams. Thus, his rise in the coaching rankings began but has actually simmered a bit going 1-6 against ranked teams since 2018. The worst thing that could happen for Iowa State is that OU lost their last game and are coming off a bye. That’s tough. Sooners 39-24.

Wyoming (+13) at Boise State – We’re putting this game up as it’s maybe Boise’s toughest or second toughest game remaining in their regular season. They are 12-1 in this series and should take care of business at home on the blue turf. Broncos 47-30.