Hello, and welcome to another season of college football. This is my 11th campaign covering the Fighting Irish where does the time go?
I’m continuing to tweak my weekly picks and poll. Last season, I tried out the Top 11+2+3 type of a ranking system that listed the top 11 Power 5 teams, the next 2 Power 5 teams in line for a major bowl game, then the 3 best Group of 5 teams. This year I’m going to streamline things for a smoother ride.
Let’s start with my pre-season Top 20 college football teams:
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 0-0 | N/A |
| 2 | Clemson | 0-0 | N/A |
| 3 | Georgia | 0-0 | N/A |
| 4 | Stanford | 0-0 | N/A |
| 5 | Ohio State | 0-0 | N/A |
| 6 | Wisconsin | 0-0 | N/A |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 0-0 | N/A |
| 8 | Miami | 0-0 | N/A |
| 9 | Auburn | 0-0 | N/A |
| 10 | Washington | 0-0 | N/A |
| 11 | Michigan State | 0-0 | N/A |
| 12 | Michigan | 0-0 | N/A |
| 13 | UCF | 0-0 | N/A |
| 14 | USC | 0-0 | N/A |
| 15 | Notre Dame | 0-0 | N/A |
| 16 | Florida State | 0-0 | N/A |
| 17 | TCU | 0-0 | N/A |
| 18 | Penn State | 0-0 | N/A |
| 19 | Florida Atlantic | 0-0 | N/A |
| 20 | West Virginia | 0-0 | N/A |
You can consider this an anti-Power Poll, or put another way, how I’d guess the teams will finish by the end of the year–although the best teams almost always rise to the top. My top 3 are the exact same as the initial AP Poll. I swear I did this a couple days before they unveiled their rankings so they obviously copied me through mind reading.
Whoa, I have Stanford 9 spots higher than the AP! Yup, as much as it pains me to say it I think they’ll have a tremendous year with an annoyingly efficient offense that is well balanced and a defense just good enough. I swear this is not a reverse-jinx.
I really tried to put Wisconsin very high–I think they’ll legit be very good combined with a weaker schedule–and ended up having them a little lower than the Associated Press. I’m sure they’ll be right around No. 6 give or take a couple spots for most of the season. You know, a typical Wisconsin season just hanging around outside the Top 5.
To me, the National Championship cut-off is where I’ve placed Oklahoma. Using Bill C’s Blue-Chip Ratio the qualifying teams to win it all per my rankings are Alabama (#1), Ohio State (#5), USC (#14), Georgia (#3), Florida State (#16), LSU (NR), Auburn (#9), Clemson (#2), Michigan (#12), Texas (NR), Oklahoma (#7), Penn State (#18), and Notre Dame (#15).
I feel like LSU is an absolute lock to cross off the title list while Texas has so much to prove. This means Stanford and Wisconsin are in my title zone without the blue-chip talent, so perhaps be wary. Adding some of this together perhaps one may want to buy more stock in Florida State to surprise.
I’d like to see Miami with 20% better quarterback play because they do feel a little darkhorse-in-waiting as the second highest rated ACC team. They are potentially one bad game from Clemson away from making the playoff. I think we’ll see a little hype if they beat what might be a rather mediocre LSU team (they just sneaked in the AP Poll at #25) this weekend.
The team I’m least confident about sticking around? USC, and I have them almost by default as my third-best Pac-12 team with a decent ceiling. They just named true freshman J.T. Daniels as starting quarterback, could have a few road losses by mid-season, and then figure things out later in the year.
Games to Watch
Western Kentucky (+34.5) at Wisconsin – Our friend Mike Sanford Jr. is visiting Madison coming off a disappointing 6-7 debut last year. His WKU team lost to Illinois and Vanderbilt both on the road last year, among their only Power 5 competition. If he can get an improved offense this one could be slightly interesting for a bit. Badgers win 41-20.
San Diego State (+14.5) at Stanford – Revenge from last year! The scheduling gods weren’t kind to Stanford last year as they sandwiched a visit to America’s Finest City in between early-season games against USC and UCLA. Now, a full off-season to prep for an underrated SDSU team getting enough respect from Vegas. Cardinal win 32-16.
FAU (+21) at Oklahoma – What kind of tricks will Lane Kiffin have up his sleeve for this one? There are some people out there calling an outright upset. This has all the makings of some 2nd half drama with the Sooners pulling away late. Sooners win 45-31.
Appalachian State (+23.5) at Penn State – We all know why App State always feels like it’s going to be a giant killer. Although, they are 0-6 versus Power 5 teams since 2014. Penn State could experience a weird transition without Saquon Barkley making this a little more fun than expected. Nittany Lions win 36-19.
*Game of the Week* Washington (+2.5) vs. Auburn [Atlanta] – A cross-country trip into SEC territory could be really tough for the Huskies. I believe this would be Chris Petersen’s first non-home game win over a ranked team during the regular season. I don’t think they pull this one out. Tigers win 23-17.
Boise State (-10.5) at Troy – Both of these teams went a combined 22-5 last year and are among the top G5 teams in the country. Troy lost at Boise last year and now we have the return game in Alabama. Let’s roll with a little revenge, home crowd, and an upset. Trojans win 35-32.
Louisville (+25.5) vs. Alabama [Orlando] – Couldn’t we have Lamar Jackson suit up for this one game and then return to the NFL? Watch out for Brian VanGorder defending Alabama’s playmakers. Crimson Tide win 38-13.
Miami (-3.5) vs. LSU [Arlington] – The only thing that gives me pause is this is an unusual trip out west for Miami (first time this far out west since 2014) in a weird Sunday night time slot. Otherwise, let’s turn up the heat in Baton Rouge! Hurricanes win 29-16.
Virginia Tech (+6.5) at Florida State – Our fifth straight night of major college football, my goodness. I’m expecting a really warm welcome for Willie Taggart and a lot of buzz for the return of Deondre Francois. Seminoles win 38-21.
Given Shaw’s absurd usage rates of his RB (different topic but crazy to me love would come back to get overworked like that), a 2016 like mccaffery season for live isn’t out of question, would that torpedo their season? Or could they sustain a long injury?
I’m sure they have next year’s Heisman favorite ready to replace Love without missing a beat, if necessary.
LMFTFY – “I’m sure they have next year’s Heisman RUNNER-UP favorite ready to replace Love without missing a beat, if necessary.”
It’s amazing how they can find all these backs who can run the ball AND pass block
Stanford = Nerdy Vegan Wisconsin. Just did a power cleanse to get all the cheese curds out of their systems, and now they’re going to go blockchain or something.
I think I agree on USC–they could drop a few games early, we’ll hear all about how Helton is on the hot seat because he’s just a boring guy, and by the end of the season they’ll be a machine and get into a NY6 Bowl (I’d say Rose, but I don’t remember the rotation this year) and beat a Penn State or something.
I, for one, am excited to actually root for Bama for one game and one game only. You’re actually picking LOLville to barely cover–I meanwhile think Bama puts up 48+ and strangles Bobby Petrino with a motorcycle tail pipe.
25.5 is a big number to lay, on a neutral field too….But I agree. I forget the exacts but I believe in games against the spread Saban kills it. I see a statement game like 48-17 or something like that, guessing they can cover with some dynamic QB play to really put up a bunch of points.
I’m also betting big on San Diego to cover Stanford. Love all those points for what was a 10 win team last year. And I’m 1-0 on the season after Wyoming’s big win and wisely avoiding betting the Hawai’i game (felt odd to me with Col St coach Bobo in/out of hospital).
GO BOWS
Michigan news, it looks like one of their top three outside receivers (there seems to be some debate about whether he was technically going to start), Tarik Black, is likely out for the ND game. That leaves fellow composite four star Nico Collins and five star top WR from the 2017 class Donovan Peoples-Jones as the presumed outside WR starters.
Possibly related, it looks like the Irish have gone from 1 point home dogs to 1 point favorites over the weekend.
Man I don’t think a 2nd/3rd best WR is enough to swing the spread by 2 points by itself.
But I’m glad my cousin’s friend of a friend took the Irish 2 weeks ago when they were +2.5 at +105.
These rankings are interesting though, I tend to prefer ranking based on strength of the team vs expected results, but E is filling a gap here!
I’ve always said that you would go broke betting on ND because the casual money always pushes the line away from reality, but in this case the current line seems much closer to reality than where it opened to me. It won’t matter either way in 128 hours 27 minutes though.
Hard to think that the Black news alone swung the line. He looked really good before getting hurt last year, but as you say wasn’t even a clear #1 WR. On top of two other blue-chip WRs in his class (Peoples-Jones and Oliver Martin), their leading receiver last year is back too.
The bigger news to come would be if Rashan Gary can’t play or is limited. Apparently he suited up but did not practice yesterday.
Grant Perry, their leading returning receiver, and Oliver Martin are the top two options in the slot and will both play is my understanding, but I don’t think one has officially been named the starter.
Tarik Black is officially out now per Harbaugh’s presser, “Both feet will be fixed. You only have two feet, he’ll have them both fixed,” Harbaugh said. Harbaugh specifically said that he wouldn’t comment on Gary’s health but did say, “He’s always competing and training at the highest level. This offseason has been no exception.” It sounds like they’re hoping he plays but not ready to guarantee it.
OH no, how ever will we game plan on offense if we are unsure Gary will play?!?! That Harbaugh, he’s got us in a corner!!
I’m glad he recognizes the number of feet his WR has. There should be no confusion on that.
The foot quote is very Jim Harbaugh.
I assume the dodge on the Gary question is to manage his own fanbase’s expectations more than try to confuse the Irish. I figure the game plan of “We should probably block the defensive tackle” stays more or less the same whether Gary is healthy or not.
I agree, it’s just fun to poke at him, since he’s definitely the type of coach who tries to create some sort of weird doubt in who is playing. I was utterly shocked he named a QB, I figured we’d get the “we all know who is going to start, but if I don’t tell you then ND has to prepare for both hahahaha” nonsense.
I’m saving this for when Stanford loses to ASU
Herm doesn’t know his team’s mascot, he probably won’t know about Bryce Love until he scores his 3rd TD in the first half against the devils. But at least Herm is a good catholic man!
At least Herm knows that YOU. PLAY. TO. WIN. THE. GAME.
Which I feel like is a basic concept every coach should be aware of.
I’ll gladly take the opposite side of your Stanford love….their defense will not be good again, so unless the offense is Baker Mayfield-Oklahoma level I don’t think they can really contend. I think their offense will be very good, but they were so inefficient last year that I think they can be upset kind of easily if the Bryce Love big-play machine breaks down (he gets bottled up or hurt).
On the flip side, buying all UW stock. I’m a Petersen believer, especially when he has a veteran QB, and the defense should be really good.
Are you moving in on my Chris Petersen Fan Club President title??
Man, this is almost exactly how I’m predicting things to go too, except with Stanford and FSU each about 4 spots lower.
Penn State – I thought I was the only person putting them outside the top 15. That division is tough, and I don’t think their offense is even close to as good as last year. McSorley can only launch up so many hope and a prayer deep balls when defenses don’t have to stack the box.
Washington – Surprised you didn’t have them higher. Petersen’s your dude, and they bring back Browning, who you seemed to love last year. I would have put them right where you slotted them, so I commend you for finally recognizing that they never beat good teams (they’ll probably put up 50 on Auburn now).
Love you guys (and your comments) so much!
I’m really looking forward to the Stanford implosion that helps our recruiting. Hopefully it’s this year but I think next year is more likely.
Gary being only 80% against us would be huge. Let’s hope for that.
“I’m really looking forward to the Stanford implosion that helps our recruiting.”
You might be waiting a long, long time. I know a lot of commenters here think David Shaw is not a good coach because he punts on 4th and short too much, but that’s really missing the forest for the trees there. We’d be very fortunate if he went to the NFL.
Plus, Stanford is finally putting resources into football. This is a great school with tons of money, in the richest area in the country that happens to have lovely weather most of the year. Point being: structurally, it’s going to be very attractive to play there for any high-academic kid so long as Stanford keeps putting money into it.
Shaw is undeniably a good coach. Don’t let that distract you from his punchable smugness and general dislikeability. I really think that/
*can’t hear rest of comment because the ND band is playing in the tunnel.*
(He’s a good coach, I don’t think he’s going anywhere any time soon, and I don’t see any logic to the “imploding” idea, as you point out. People thought Shaw was only winning with Harbaugh’s players, then with Harbaugh’s system, and now it’s been however many years and they’re a consistently good team. As much as I dislike Shaw, he’s a good coach.)
David Shaw is for sure a good coach. But you need bodies. If they have another small recruiting class, he’ll be in trouble.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/2/8/16990550/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2018-class
Shaw has 10 people recruited so far, but it seems like Stanford has a slow admissions process (see the article) which may also slow recruiting. So I’m not reading too much into the numbers for this year – its too early in the cycle.
I also want to explore how Stanford’s 5-year graduation plan influences attrition. Some attrition is good because you want to get rid of your recruiting misses. This is the argument for Notre Dame’s 3.5 years to athlete graduation plan. You can always extend scholarships to year five for players you like and graduate the ones you don’t.
We went over this in an earlier discussion this summer a bit. Yes, Stanford pulls in less recruits per cycle. But they keep more kids around–they STAY those 5 years, generally speaking (and players like McCaffrey notwithstanding). Because of their differences to every other program in the P5, they have a different model, but this isn’t new. I think a lot of the “imploding” is wishful thinking. I kept waiting for it to happen once Harbaugh left, but it hasn’t happened. Might they dip? Sure. But the record shows we’re more likely to end up 4-8 than they are.
I was the one who pointed out the kids stay five years (actually, it was Pete Sampson, but I posted it)!
But my point is that your recruiting misses – of which there are many – might stick around longer in such a world. And in any event, three small classes is a row will affect your two deep in a bad way, so let’s watch and see how he does this year.
To wit: with an 85 man roster and 100% retention through 5 years, you’d recruit 17 players a year. His last two recruiting classes have been 14 and 15 players, retention is definitely not 100%, if only because Stanford sends guys to the NFL.
Like I said, it’s too early to tell, but if Stanford has a small class this year, then 1-2 years down the road they will have a ND 2007 season (but with better coaching they’ll go 7-5) where their two-deep is mostly sophomores.
This year’s class will be key as you said. I think they had 25 in the year before those two lean years so they probably just need around the average to stay afloat – roughly 17-18.
Too-shay, then. 🙂 Can’t very well use it to argue against you when you were the one I heard it from! haha. I think you have a point, I just don’t think they miss very much. And after X many years expecting them to fall off a cliff and them not doing it, I’m not going to predict it.
My larger point in my original response to nd09hls12 in this thread is where I was trying to emphasize: just because for many of us Shaw is our favorite coach to hate doesn’t mean we don’t think he’s good. I’ll criticize the heck out of Shaw for whining about the band playing up to the snap of the ball in violation of a Pac-12 rule which doesn’t apply when the game is played at ND, or still complaining about Stephan Taylor not getting in the end zone, I’ll mock his facial expressions that make him look like he’s got gas on the sidelines all the time, and I’ll cheer when the band trolls him by playing next to the interview room postgame. It’s part of the fun. Shaw is one of those coaches that he’s easy to dislike if he’s not your coach, but if he was your coach you’d probably like him (even if he’s predictable in the red zone).
Agreed on all counts, from the annoyingness to the consistent quality. I think Shaw would be an upgrade from Kelly – not a huge upgrade, but enough to bring us consistent ten win seasons with a floor of eight wins instead of four.
Upvote for “missing the forest for the trees” in reference to Stanford
LMFTFY “Missing the forest for the TREE”
Per a Michigan beat writer: “On radio show, Michigan DL coach says “You don’t have to worry about Rashan (Gary). He’s chomping at the bit … You don’t have to worry about him. There’s nothing there.” ”
So I guess we shall see, perhaps some posturing, who knows.
His shoulder is supposedly injured. He can definitely play, but hopefully he’ll be not fully recovered and play below his usual monstrous level.
Anyone think there’s any meat to the rumor that Dex might not be as double-secret-suspended as we’ve thought for the last couple months?
You mean he’s been expelled?
I mean that he might be dressing for the Michigan game. People are pointing to his twitter feed as evidence that he’s planning to play on Saturday.
https://twitter.com/DexterW_22/status/1034250226700304385
https://twitter.com/DexterW_22/status/1034254057911799808
That doesn’t say anything that those kids don’t say all the time anyways. Still 100% expecting the 4 game Office of Community Standards suspension. We’ll see if Kelly says anything today at his press conference, but he will be vague because he has to since he can’t comment upon it.
No reason to think any differently.
Yeah that seems pretty standard, “I’m getting hyped that our team is playing on Saturday” type stuff.
Now if Dex were to leak that he was playing over Twitter, that might make Kelly suspend him for the game after all.
Well if there was any hope, forget about it now. Kelly at his presser:
“He’ll be dressed and he’ll be on the sidelines. We’ll see what happens when we kick it off.”
Classic vague answer. Goes to show it’s usually a fool’s errand to try read too much in between the lines on twitter (not necessarily directed at anyone here). Williams is on the Stepherson memorial secret suspension as pretty much everyone has said for months and months now.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This last week before football is the hardest. Nothing new to talk about but all the excitement of football.
Wasn’t directed at you at all, nothing wrong with wondering and hoping. More towards other websites trying to create stories out of thin air despite it being really vague twitter reporting.
Side note: ResLife changed their name in part because they didn’t like kids saying they got “ResLifed,” but I have it on good authority that kids who appear before Community Standards now say they got “Cum Stained.”
This is the type of content reserved for 18SAD
I would think 18SAD would be “banner of doom” type stuff
Commenting gold right there.
Who could possibly have foreseen that a name change wouldn’t prevent kids from coming up with a derogatory reference to the department?
We Need new Content! We Need new Content! Come on, Eric, we’re dyin’ here!!!!! Are you going to make me go read ACross’s assessment of our 2018 offense??? Have mercy!
Charlie, this is so funny, because I was literally going to beg for more content.
Way to lead the charge!
You want content NOW, at what cost? Quality of writing, typos, weak takes and broken links?
Actually all those sound acceptable. Something new to digest is needed, even if it’s skyline chili slop.
I mean, Eric at 50% is beating the internet clowns at their finest. But given its game one of the season, we’ve already gotten a solid advanced stat preview of Michigan.
But – important idea here – could we get the 18Stripes Gameday slack rolling for the Northwestern Purdue game tomorrow night? It would be fun to “scout” some opposition with you guys.
Sure, we’ll fire it up. Details forthcoming.
Wrong. Skyline chili slop is undigestible, which you know because it looks the same going out as it does going in.