Several programs suffered varying degrees of scares this week including Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Oregon from our current top 5 rankings. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Penn State who crashes out of our rankings following a humiliating 9 overtime defeat, at home, to Illinois.
Let’s take a look at the latest Top 20 poll from 18 Stripes.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 7-0 | BYE |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 7-0 | 27-20 W at Navy |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 8-0 | 35-23 W at Kansas |
| 4 | Alabama | 7-1 | 52-24 W vs. Tennessee |
| 5 | Oregon (+1) | 6-1 | 34-31 W at UCLA |
| 6 | Ohio State (+1) | 6-1 | 54-7 W at Indiana |
| 7 | Michigan (+2) | 7-0 | 33-7 W vs. Northwestern |
| 8 | Wake Forest (+4) | 7-0 | 70-56 W at Army |
| 9 | Ole Miss (+6) | 6-1 | 31-17 W vs. LSU |
| 10 | Michigan State (+4) | 7-0 | BYE |
| 11 | Notre Dame (+2) | 6-1 | 31-16 W vs. USC |
| 12 | Kentucky (+4) | 6-1 | BYE |
| 13 | Iowa (-2) | 6-1 | BYE |
| 14 | Oklahoma State (-6) | 6-1 | 24-21 L at Iowa St. |
| 15 | Baylor (+2) | 6-1 | BYE |
| 16 | Pitt (NR) | 6-1 | 27-17 W vs. Clemson |
| 17 | SDSU (+1) | 7-0 | 20-14 W at Air Force |
| 18 | UTSA (+1) | 8-0 | 45-16 W at Louisiana Tech |
| 19 | Iowa State (NR) | 5-2 | 24-21 W vs. Oklahoma St. |
| 20 | SMU (NR) | 7-0 | 55-26 W vs. Tulane |
This was a week for me to re-shuffle the rankings a bit. Teams like Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Michigan State, and Kentucky received pretty big bumps not really due to anything they did spectacularly in week 8 but after looking things over and deciding their current teams deserved to move up into better spots.
The first College Football Playoff Poll comes out next week on Tuesday, November 2nd. Here are some thoughts:
*Cincinnati is at Tulane this weekend and should pick up a comfortable win. Will the committee have the Bearcats in 2nd mirroring the AP and USA Today polls? If yes, I would think Cincinnati is a lock for the playoffs if they remain undefeated. Although, peep SMU at No. 20 in our rankings–they travel to Cincinnati in late November.
*If Ohio State were to trip up before playing Michigan, but still go on to beat Michigan in the finale I’m really interested to see how things unfold in the Big Ten and what a playoff spot looks like for the conference.
*Oregon should take care of business the rest of the way and have an inside track to make the playoffs. However, they do have to travel to Utah in their second to last game and could very likely turn around and face the Utes again in the Pac-12 Championship.
*Is it fair to believe a 1-loss ACC team isn’t making it in? Especially if we factor in an undefeated G5 team like Cincinnati grabbing a spot?
*It’s almost November and it barely feels like things have begun in the Big 12! From the 4 teams in our rankings all have a shot at the league title with these big games remaining: Oklahoma at Baylor, Iowa State at Oklahoma, and Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. In other words, the Sooners will have to earn this down the stretch.
OUT: Penn State, Coastal Carolina, NC State
Penn State tumbles from 5th all the way out of our rankings in an unprecedented drop. They’re in big trouble with major offensive problems and likely to be decent-to-heavy underdogs in 3 more games with a 7-5 season looking very likely. At least their coach isn’t in a bunch of USC rumors!
Poor Coastal Carolina, their fun in the sun kind of comes to an end this past week with a close loss at Appalachian State. That was their first regular season defeat since November 23, 2019.
NC State realized they were NC State and bowed out of the rankings coming up short in a comeback over Miami in a 1-point loss. For another day, the Manny Diaz regime lives in Coral Gables.
Week 9 Games to Watch
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 31-25
Michigan (-4.5) at Michigan State
Who wouldn’t love an upset here? I think it’s easy to wonder how much Michigan has actually been tested this year and hopefully this rivalry game is going to give them fits. I also don’t believe much in Mel Tucker and his rumors of being in the running for the LSU job. That seems crazy, this will be a come down to earth moment for Sparty. Wolverines win 29-19.
Iowa (+3.5) at Wisconsin
Did you know that a win here by Wisconsin would put…that’s right P.J. Fleck and Minnesota in the driver’s seat and current lead in the Big Ten West? Assuming the Gophers win at Northwestern this weekend, of course. Still, despite Wisconsin putting their run game together recently I don’t trust them to do much against a tough Iowa defense. Although the same can be said for Iowa who may be in even worse shape offensively in this matchup. Maybe we’ll see another 9 OT game in the Big Ten? Badgers win 13-9.
Texas (+2.5) at Baylor
Hey, remember all those Big 12 games I just mentioned above? It doesn’t include Baylor hosting Texas this weekend. I think the Bears will remain a tough out and a problem in league play but Texas gets this one coming off a bye week. Longhorns win 35-29.
Miami (+9.5) at Pitt
Do not ever start believing in Pitt. Hurricanes win 37-35.
Georgia (-14) vs. Florida
Is this it for Georgia? They’re 2 touchdown favorites in this intense rivalry and should be 20+ point favorites over their final 4 games. A win this weekend very likely sews up a playoff spot for them unless they lose by 50 in the SEC Championship. And even then? Bulldogs win 35-24.
Ole Miss (+2.5) at Auburn
I’ve included this game for a couple reasons. One, both programs are tied with Alabama with 1-loss in conference play. Two, I thought it quite curious that Ole Miss is the underdog. But that’s life in the SEC. Both still have to play Texas A&M too, and obviously Ole Miss has already lost to Alabama. I trust Lane Kiffin’s offense more this weekend. Rebels win 30-21.
SMU (PK) at Houston
There are 3 undefeated AAC teams in league play and this weekend we’ll see one of them fall back. This has been a very good season so far by SMU as Sonny Dykes is quietly DGT™ with the Ponies. Does the average fan know SMU is 24-6 since the beginning of 2019? Meanwhile, Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen may have a wandering eye again and is rumored to be considered for the recent Texas Tech opening. Dykes is rumored, too. Winner gets the job? Mustangs win 43-38.
I have noticed that Sonny Dykes has been DGT — I was actually surprised that the Big 12 did not include them in their recent replacement/expansion. SMU probably has more potential to regularly contend for a Big 12 championship than a team like Texas Tech
I BELIEVE IN PITT
This pass is a thing of beauty: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr4qJu00jTc
Pickett is for real
I watched the 4th qtr and the OT’s in the Penn St. game. They stink.
Cinci remains wildly over rated. Who here would bet on them beating Bama, OSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Auburn?
I don’t know how good Oregon or the BIG-teams are, but I’m doubtful they’d beat either Michigan team.
I think Pitt is real this year. They’d beat Cinci too.
You’re VERY good at discounting losses when analyzing who is good. Scoring more points than your opponent should be near the top of list. Otherwise you’re going to talk yourself into a 4-team SEC playoff because of #reasons.
So who would you bet actual money on Cinci winning vs any of the teams I mentioned? And expect to win? Do you really think only Georgia is better than Cinci?
or do you think that since, say, Bama lost in the last second to A&M, that Cinci would beat Bama? Or A&M for that matter? OSU lost to Oregon. Does that mean Cinci is a better team, since they haven’t lost vs their cupcake schedule? OSU would crush Cinci.
Tindma said somewhere that he thinks ND would beat Cinci in a rematch. I tend to agree with him.
Its more complicated than your thought process works maybe, than just is a particular team undefeated.
other than that, I have no idea how you reached the conclusion offered in your last sentence.
I’d pick Cincinnati to beat Pitt, Auburn, Ole Miss, and maybe Oklahoma although I’d like to see more from Caleb Williams but it would’ve been a yes with Spencer Rattler’s performance this year.
I think you’re forgetting that we’re also in week 9, not the night before the playoff selections come out. Wheat will get separated from chaff in the next 6 weeks, which is the only time numbers in front of team names matter. If OSU beats PSU, MSU & Michigan, then yes, I’d say they are better than Cincinnati. If they drop all three, go 8-4, are they still better than Cincinnati? It’s the same players and coaches in both scenarios.
Results on the field should matter a scoche more than what some dude would bet his friend. Doesn’t mean a worse team can’t beat a better team, but to suggest a 5-2 Auburn, a team which lost to trash PSU & best win is 5-3 Arkansas OR 6-1 Ole Miss, who also claims their best win as a 1 point victory over said Arkansas and 2nd best win as a 5 point victory over Tennessee would hands down beat Cincinnati seems a bit egregious. Sure Cincinnati has only 1 quality win in Notre Dame (and maybe later SMU/Houston), but just look at all the quality losses Mississippi State can rack up!
Not that ND got blown off the field, but they lost fairly convincingly at home to a team that coached circles around them and had by far the best QB on the field. With time, Cincy’s win has made more of a believer out of me, they have a good defense, very solid coaching and have won a lot of games in the last 2 seasons. If they beat SMU (like tl says below) and run the table, I think Cincy is pretty deserving of a playoff spot, especially in a year like this where there has been more chaos than normal at the top (no Clemson, Bama and tOSU have already lost at least once, Oklahoma looks very shaky if their fresh. QB doesn’t stumble)