So begins a new college football season which will be full of joy, angst, beer, and victory. We’re now entering the third year of the College Football Playoff and the last before the Big 12 adds a conference title game again and likely adds more members to its league.
In putting together this preview a couple of things jumped out to me. One, I don’t foresee there being a ton of debate over the top 4 teams–at least as I see things playing out of course you the reader will certainly debate the prediction. Two, this feels like a season where the Top 15 is going to be littered with 3 and 4-loss teams and it’s just so difficult (and time consuming) to try and predict who those teams will be before December. To start, let’s look at my predicted conference championships:
SEC Title Game
Alabama vs. Florida
The Tide come in as heavy favorites with 1-loss to their name playing against a Florida team that won a 3-way tie for first place in the SEC East. A throwback to the days of Tebow this is not, roll Tide.
Big 10 Title Game
Ohio State vs. Iowa
Thanks to an easy schedule we find a 9-3 Iowa team sneaking into this league title game thanks to another 3-way tie and Wisconsin losing to LSU to open the season. Hawkeyes lose by 37 points.
Big 12 Title: Oklahoma
As the soothsayers predicted the Sooners will fall to Houston in the opener but make amends with a win over Ohio State. Unfortunately, they trip up late in the season in league play–I’m thinking a wild and crazy loss to Baylor.
ACC Title Game
Clemson vs. Miami
The Tigers spend the final 12 weeks of the season as the unchallenged No. 1 team in the country. Miami has a nice little season but aren’t quite ready for this battle.
Pac-12 Title Game
Washington vs. UCLA
In the second major rise of Chris Petersen the Huskies impress the country with a stellar defensive performance in shutting down Josh Rosen and the Bruins.
Final Playoff Rankings
1. Clemson (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Ohio State (12-1)
4. Michigan (11-1)
5. Oklahoma (10-2)
6. Washington (10-3)
7. Notre Dame (10-2)
8. Florida State (10-2)
9. UCLA (10-3)
10. Tennessee (9-3)
11. LSU (9-3)
12. Houston (10-2)
13. Miami (10-3)
14. Wisconsin (10-3)
15. TCU (9-3)
16. Florida (9-4)
17. Michigan State (9-3)
18. Iowa (9-4)
19. Stanford (8-4)
20. Georgia (9-3)
21. Louisville (8-4)
22. Ole Miss (8-4)
23. Nebraska (9-3)
24. USC (8-4)
25. Oklahoma State (8-4)
CFB Semi-finals:
Fiesta Bowl (Alabama vs. Ohio State)
Peach Bowl (Clemson vs. Michigan)
CFB Finals:
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Clemson vs. Ohio State
National Champions: Clemson
Orange Bowl
Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl
Houston vs. UCLA
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Washington
Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Breaking it Down
I said there wouldn’t be a ton of debate with the top four but I kind of lied. With my predictions we could see some fervent discussion revolving around Michigan, and I’m sure Notre Dame fans will be ready to rumble on that front. I’ve been adamant that Notre Dame has a tiny chance of ever making the playoffs with 1-loss but this scenario there would be a strong case. I’m expecting a lot of teams with multiple losses.
I have the Wolverines starting 11-0 which would bring up an interesting scenario as they’d lose in the final week to Ohio State, stay home during conference championship weekend, and still get into the playoffs. Obviously, this can only happen if there are no other qualified 1-loss teams in the discussion, as I mentioned above. Last year, there were two such teams who were left out and I’ve talked before how rare the 11-1 records from both Big Ten schools Ohio State and Iowa were in 2015.
Jim Harbaugh to be compensated $9 million this year by #UMich. https://t.co/dENbrIDRaT
— The Detroit News (@detroitnews) August 18, 2016
I have the conference title games being mostly stink bombs. Basically, heavy favorites in Clemson and Alabama need to hold off not-very-great teams with no one else threatening to make the playoffs. Essentially, the top 4 will be mostly wrapped up before conference title week. There might be some chatter about Oklahoma getting in but that’s about it.
Speaking of the Sooners, what’s that recent history been with them trying to live up to a lofty pre-season ranking? So they have Houston, Ohio State, TCU, and the Red River Rivalry in the first 6 weeks. I feel like 10-2 is a really optimistic outlook for them–but I don’t see a playoff contender with their talent level and schedule.
A few things on our Irish. One, most predictions have Notre Dame in the New Year’s Six Bowl range. Two, most expect one ACC team to make the playoff. Three, get ready to play either Clemson or Florida State if Notre Dame is just outside the playoffs. The toughest NY6 bowl matchup, by many miles, for the second straight year!
I thought my Pac-12 prediction was pretty fun–it’d be nice to see Washington rise up again under Petersen. I don’t think they are going to be playoff good but I like their path to the division much more than Oregon, and especially Stanford.
Tennessee and LSU are the teams to watch to sneak into the playoffs (if my predicted records are changed for the better) and they have really good seasons but are blocked by losing their division. The Vols especially, as skeptical as we may be about them, will be well positioned if they lose once or twice early to make a late charge up the rankings. Although the counter to that is that they won’t be adding any quality wins.
Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl feels kind of dumb to me, I’ll admit. That’s a product of having both Ohio State and Michigan in the playoff (also, unlikely I suppose!) and Iowa getting its doors blown off in the Big Ten title game. The question is if the Hawkeyes would really fall that far no matter how bad the loss could be. Last season, they dropped from 4th to 5th in the final playoff rankings following a close loss to Michigan State.
If you’re looking for teams to finish well below their pre-season rankings may I suggest Stanford and Ole Miss? The Cardinal especially need a healthy amount of skepticism. I know we’ve been conditioned to NOT expect that drop-off anymore but they are 21st in blue-chip rate (sandwiched in between Oregon and South Carolina) and they could face ranked teams in half of their games.
I like UCLA to overachieve although it may not be apparent early in the season. They have road games at A&M and BYU in the first 3 weeks and then face Stanford. From there, the run-in is real friendly especially without Oregon or Washington from the North division.
Beyond the additions of Miami and Wisconsin my rankings are really chalk heavy. That’s also highly unlikely. A couple of teams who I think will overachieve and possibly crash the rankings: Pitt, Navy, Western Kentucky, and Boise State.
Since 2011, 7 of 9 coaches whose teams ranked in preseason AP Top 10 that finished year unranked were fired or resigned w/in next 12 months
— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) August 21, 2016
Using McMurphy’s tweet above who is the most likely coach to be gone from their program while starting this year in the AP Top 10? It’s been rumored for at least a couple years that Jimbo Fisher could return to LSU so there’s two coach’s if Les Miles gets the ax in Baton Rouge. Another good bet would be Butch Jones at Tennessee.
Heisman Voting
1st- Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
2nd- J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
3rd- Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
4th- Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
5th- Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
Friends, this year the Heisman chase is going to be LOADED like crazy. We might need to see some injuries just to create some breathing room with all of the talent. If Clemson has the season I think they will then Watson is a no-brainer. Elsewhere, Barrett is going to dominate and carry Ohio State after sitting so much of last year. These guys are also the most high-profile quarterbacks from my playoff teams.
No one from Alabama, though? Maybe Calvin Ridley but I doubt it. Cook is he stays healthy will have a huge season while Fournette and McCaffrey will put up numbers and get a lot of touches. Those two will suffer more from the performance from their teams, though. McCaffrey especially, I suspect he’ll total a ton of yards and that will be impressive to some but his averages won’t be in the same category as someone like Cook.
Royce Freeman might rush for 2,000 yards and not be a top 5 finalist. Where do you put Baker Mayfield who is bound to put up big numbers? What about Nick Chubb? Heck, even Kizer is getting Heisman love but it’s going to take a massively productive season to get invited to NYC.
Power 5 Coaching Carousel Predictions
Steve Addazio (fired)
Charles Kelly (FSU DC) to Boston College
Dana Holgorsen (fired)
Doc Holliday (Marshall HC) to West Virginia
James Franklin (fired)
Bob Diaco (UConn HC) to Penn State
Darrell Hazell (fired)
Joe Craddock (SMU OC) to Purdue
Jim Grobe not re-signed
Todd Graham (ASU HC) to Baylor
P.J. Fleck (Western Michigan HC) to Arizona State
Gus Malzahn fired
Jeff Brohm (Western Kentucky HC) to Auburn
Kevin Sumlin fired
Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma OC) to Texas A&M
There’s been so much coaching turnover over the last 5 years that the hot seat rankings are cooling off a little bit. Virtually all of the prominent coaches waiting for the ax (and a few others) are mentioned above. Others include Mike MacIntyre (Colorado), Derek Mason (Vanderbilt), Mark Stoops (Kentucky), and Charlie Strong (Texas). Ultimately, I think the aforementioned Miles and Jones stay put in Baton Rouge and Knoxville, respectively.
Coach Bob Diaco, Saturay Post-Practice https://t.co/RzKB555SdX via @YouTube
— UConn Football (@UConnFootball) August 13, 2016
I’m sure by now you’ve seen who I have going to Penn State so have fun with that prediction! It’ll be a controversial signing in Happy Valley but ultimately they’ll be won over by his handsomeness and charm.
If I can get serious for a moment (I don’t really want to see Diaco at Penn State) there are some really interesting possible job openings and coaches with the right backgrounds to fill those vacancies. Once upon a time Todd Graham was a laughing stock for being a job jumper when in reality he only stayed at Pitt for one year (can you blame him?) and has book-ended that job with 4 years at Tulsa and now 5 years at Arizona State. He’s from Mesquite, Texas just 100 miles north of Waco and would be a good fit after Baylor (presumably) lets Grobe go after this interim season.
Fleck heading out west to ASU would be fun, what would he think to do with a bunch of pitchforks and devil paraphernalia!?!??
The Holgo probably isn’t going to hold on in the scenic mountains of West Virginia. The underrated Doc Holliday was a player/coach for the Mountaineers for nearly 25 years–he’s getting old and should probably get a shot at his alma mater.
There isn’t much to Riley and Brohm’s backgrounds to suggest they will get top-tier Power 5 jobs but they are a couple of the bright up and coming coaches. They will be among the most sought after guys in the business sooner rather than later.
2016 Season Superlatives
Really, this is the most important stuff to talk about before the season…
Best 2016 Alternate Uniform: Pittsburgh Throwbacks
If you know my uniform tastes you’ll understand my utter disdain for the bland and soul-crushing wave of drab navy blue and muted colors that’s impacted sports since the 1990’s. Sure, everyone has different tastes but at the same time there aren’t people in the world who prefer the current Pitt uniforms to these throwbacks, right?
Top 3 Non-Traditional* Uniforms
1. Appalachian State
2. North Carolina
3. Colorado
*Meaning not from the usual suspects (Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, etc.)
Top New Uniform Redesign: Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall frigging nailed this so hard. Subtle but fresh tweaks to the helmet, including the always classy looking gray facemasks (thank the Lord the Irish don’t mess with this). Plus, a simple striping pattern on the sleeves and plain white numbers that really pop. This is an A+ job.
2016 Most Popular Helmet: Air Force Airpower Legacy Series Sharktooth
I’m not a big fan of the accompanying uniforms that Air Force will be wearing with this helmet. They’re like a metallic nightmare version of Notre Dame’s upcoming Shamrock Series uniform and it’s not right that people will lump them in with this helmet because this lid is just outrageously the best of the year.
Breakout Star No One is Talking About: Daylon Mack, DT, Texas A&M
Player I Love to Watch But Hate Admitting It: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC
Country’s Most Underrated Player: Anu Solomon, QB, Arizona
Bound to be the Most Annoying Player: Jabrill Peppers, DB, Michigan
Post-Week 1 Heisman Campaign that will Burn to the Ground: Kenny Hill, QB, TCU
New Head Coach Not to Sleep Upon: Scott Frost, UCF
Best Dressed Head Coach: Dabo Swinney, Clemson and Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
Worst Dressed Head Coach: Bret Bielema, Arkansas and Terry Bowden, Akron
Best Field Paint and Design: LSU
Best Live Mascot: Smokey X, Tennessee
Best Non-Live Mascot: Otto the Orange, Syracuse
Oddest New Broadcast Team: Steve Levy and Brian Griese, ESPN/ABC
Take the Regular Season Over: Florida Gators (7.5 wins)
Take the Regular Season Under: LSU Tigers (10 wins)
Fun, a little bit of everything in this article.
In your scenario, I do think the 4th spot would be up for debate. 11-1 Michigan team having lost their last game to tOSU and not winning their division, vs. 10-2 OU team that beat that tOSU team and had presumably won their last 6 games or so and won the Big 12. It would be a good conversation and hopefully one that ended in Wolverine tears.
You’re probably right it would be more controversial. In my scenario, which was very loosely designed, I had OU losing to Baylor in their 10th game. So, pretty late in the season.
Also, are we all sleeping too much on Baylor? I kinda wanted to write about that too.
I’m sleeping on Baylor because I think Art Briles was the key cog in that machine. Not a good guy but very good coach.
And Jim Grobe as a placeholder is pretty uninspiring.
But OU is fully capable of losing that game, they’ve lost to worse Texas teams.
I think Baylor is pretty legitimately in disarray at this point. I mean, I don’t expect them to go 6-6 – they should be able to beat Northwestern State, SMU, Rice, Iowa State, and Kansas by falling out of bed – but I agree with Shoelace, Briles was the engine of that team. He preceded Sumlin at Houston and laid a lot of the groundwork there too.
Grobe is a decent coach who won’t embarrass them off the field while they figure out a long-term replacement. I don’t expect him to work miracles. Plus some of the guys they lost from the 2016 recruiting class were probably going to play this year, and they’ll miss them. If they win more than 8 games that has to be considered a pretty successful season.
So, I saw the conference predictions and final rankings and I was like, “Yeah, typical pre-season write-up.”
And then I kept scrolling and scrolling and scrolling through all that gold and I was like:
Football is almost here, we’re having fun, and we’re ready!
1. He is getting old. That is a long time to be a player/coach. I am surprised that the NCAA hasn’t caught on to that yet. Maybe he’s grandfathered in? If this were still allowed, I’m pretty sure we would be starting Tommy Rees at QB/QB Coach for like the 8th year now.
2. How does he play/coach with Tuberculosis anyway?
Noticed the ‘MICHTIX’ on the background of the Harbaugh picture. Do they really need that, I thought you just had to buy a couple of Cokes and thought got you Michigan football tickets.
Does this change for the playoffs? Do you have to buy 3 Cokes for those tickets, or maybe a pair of Docker’s khakis?
Holy crap, there is WAAAAAAAAAY too much Harbaugh photo action in this post.
Love it Eric, but not down on taking the under for LSU. That means betting against Leonard Fournette (no thanks!), and they’re the one SEC contender I’m not concerned about at all with their big Week 1 out of conference game. It’s the first time in forever all of the juniors haven’t left a Les Miles team and Dave Aranda is a very good DC – I’m buying the hype assuming Brandon Harris can be an average QB.
Assuming an average QB in Baton Rouge is a pretty huge assumption though.
Did you just reply to yourself?
His id and his ego have separate logins.
And the superego’s just sitting this out? A little too much inhibition, obviously.
Awesome post, Murtaughdamus
First, WHY YOU DISRESPECTIN THE VAWLS MURTAWW!!!??? CANT YOU SEE HOW MANY FIVE STARS COACH JONES HAS RECRUITED!?!
Also, I had no idea this guy was still alive and coaching football at Marshall
I think Dalvin Cook is the best player in cfb today – if he stays healthy and puts up crazy numbers, the Heisman might come down to the FSU-Clemson game.
Last, if Diaco goes to PSU…
C’mon, Eric!
I open the site and I have to look at that idiot’s goofy face?!?! Now I have to go find something to drink so I can wash the taste out of my mouth (I threw up a little, don’cha know). Couldn’t you have used the new UVA kit or the air force helmet for the title picture??? Even Brett Friggin Bielema would have been better than having to look at Crazy Jimmy Dockers when we open the home page. (Other than that, great article.)
Yup!
Penn State is in a very interesting spot. If Rhule leads Temple to, say, 9 wins again, I bet PSU fans are going to take a looooooong look at him, even if Franklin turns in a respectable-but-not-great season. Then again, Franklin didn’t exactly walk into a great situation and may need a few more seasons to see if he can really hack it.
I think he has a $15M buyout too. I don’t know if that would be enough in itself to stop Penn State from canning him – I mean, this isn’t Iowa, after all – but I would imagine it has to factor in if there’s a borderline situation.
When did Penn State hire Kevin White as their AD? That’s an insane buyout.
I’m no fan of PSU or James Franklin, but in reality giving Franklin a few more years is probably in everyone’s best interest. He probably needs more time to rebuild the roster and implement his style.