Survive and advance, indeed. If Notre Dame is going to make their way to a third straight Elite 8, they are certainly going to have to play better than they did on Thursday. Next up, the West Virginia Mountaineers.
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. 4 West Virginia Mountaineers
West Region – KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Saturday, March 18th – 12:10pm tip-off – CBS
The Resume
The showdown between the runners-up of the two best conferences in the country. West Virginia made it to the Round of 32 by way of their six-point win over Bucknell. Their postseason also includes wins over Texas and Kansas State and a loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Final.
The Mountaineers’ non-conference resume is quite weak, with a great win over Virginia cancelled out by a fairly bad loss to Temple. Wins over Texas A&M and Illinois have not held up, but they do have wins over tournament qualifiers Northern Kentucky and Mount St. Mary’s.
So the degree to which you are impressed by West Virginia likely comes from their conference slate. Their 2-1 record in the tournament featured an understandable loss (although one they never really threatened to win), a decent win, and an easy win. Their regular season was probably more impressive, as they went 12-6. They split their two games with every other Big 12 team in the NCAA Tournament other than Iowa State, who they swept but then lost to in the Big 12 Final. That gives them wins against Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Kansas State (but losses to all of them as well).
Honestly, I was expecting better. The Mountaineers are a top-ten KenPom team, and your mileage may vary depending on the degree to which you agree with pretty much every advanced metric that the Big 12 is clearly the best conference in the country. I’m guessing a lot of you disagree, but the conference’s lofty ratings up-and-down the standings are in large part driving West Virginia’s high opponent-adjusted ratings.
West Virginia has a defensive reputation (“Press Virginia”), and KenPom’s numbers back that up, rating them 5th in the country. Notre Dame has the slight offensive advantage (16th vs. WVU’s 25th). The gap between WVU’s defense and Notre Dame’s is much larger than the one between the offenses, which explains why the Mountaineers are 7th overall and the Irish are 26th.
West Virginia opened as a 3-point favorite, which may have moved slightly towards Notre Dame since. 538 gives the Irish just a 31% chance of getting the victory. KenPom gives them slightly better 36% odds. Many pundits are predicting the Irish in this one, but the numbers are pretty clear that they are the underdog.
The Lineup
G Jevon Carter – Jr. – 6’2″, 200
G Daxter Miles, Jr. – Jr. – 6’3″, 200
F Esa Ahmad – So. – 6’8″, 225
F Nathan Adrian – Sr. – 6’9″, 235
F/C Elijah Macon – Jr. – 6’9″, 240
Bench
G Tarik Phillip – Sr. – 6’3″, 195
G Teyvon Myers – Sr. – 6’2″, 185
F Lamont West – rFr. – 6’8″, 215
F Sagaba Konate – Fr. – 6’8″, 250
F/C Brandon Watkins – Sr. – 6’9″, 225
West Virginia certainly runs deeper than Notre Dame in that they play more guys regularly, but their starters still log the lion’s share of their minutes. Each starter can be expected to play around 30 minutes, give or take a few, and while they will likely bring 5-6 guys off the bench, only Tarik Phillip is guaranteed to play more than 15. The other guys will bring some energy for a few minutes here-or-there, and maybe one guy will present a tough match-up that Bob Huggins will want to ride a bit longer.
The Match-up
For as similar as the opening round opponent was, the committee couldn’t have given Notre Dame a more clashing style of opponent in Round 2 than West Virginia. Notre Dame has the more efficient offense, but West Virginia will try to kill opponents with the other three factors. They crash the boards, turn you over, and get to the free throw line at a decent rate.
West Virginia will want to speed this game up and get fast break opportunities. Notre Dame will want to slow it down and turn it into a half-court game. We’ll probably see stretches of the game that fall into both categories, and the winning team will probably be the one that can survive those opponent-driven stretches better than the other.
Irish on Defense
West Virginia will certainly run a bigger lineup out there than the Irish, often sticking to just a two-guard lineup. The Mountaineers bring length in waves, even if none of their regulars are true giants like Louisville or FSU have. Of course, this is nothing new for the small-ball Irish, but they will need one of their best defensive rebounding efforts of their season in this one. The only better rebounding team Notre Dame has faced (UNC) absolutely crushed them on the offensive boards. It’s hard to imagine the Irish turning in a similar effort and coming away with the win. One of the keys will be VJ Beachem and Steve Vasturia combining for around 15 boards again like they nearly did against Princeton. It’s going to require a total team commitment to keep WVU’s possessions one-and-done.
Other than that, West Virginia is only so-so running their half-court offense. Bob Huggins’ Big East teams used to be quite a bit better and more free-flowing than they have the last two seasons or so. This was, in part, a conscious effort on his part based on the personnel he had and was getting. His rosters are less skilled but more athletic, so he wisely changed things to become more defensive and rebounding focused. He’s going to land in the Hall of Fame someday for a reason.
So what does that mean for Notre Dame? For one, don’t make mistakes. If West Virginia’s offense is coming from fastbreaks and drawing fouls, don’t turn it over or foul them. This really is a simple game sometimes. Luckily, Notre Dame is good at avoiding those kinds of mistakes. Can they continue that against the challenge presented by West Virginia’s impressively athletic and committed lineup? Their tournament hopes will likely rely on it.
Secondly, the Irish need to keep the Mountaineers in front of them and prevent them from getting to the basket too frequently. Easier said than done, although you feel good about Rex Pflueger and Steve Vasturia doing so. Those guys are good at making opponents score over-the-top of them. But what about Matt Farrell or even VJ Beachem? Can they keep taller, bulkier guys from backing them down to the hoop? And can Bonzie Colson stand strong without getting into foul trouble?
This is a tall task for Notre Dame’s good-but-not-great defense. If they can turn this into a jump-shooting game, great. West Virginia was only a 35% three-point shooting team in conference play. But it’s also easy to envision West Virginia getting the ball inside and, at worst, getting second- and third-chance points at will by crashing the boards.
Irish on Offense
Going the other direction, we have the top turnover-avoiding offense versus the best turnover-forcing defense in the country. What a match-up. This certainly requires Notre Dame to play composed to bring the ball past half-court, but I feel good about that. That’s only half the battle though. It’s once they get into the half-court that the Irish are more vulnerable. Farrell makes some silly mistakes. Vasturia and Beachem can be loose with the ball. And Colson is certainly a risk to get rejected a time or two, especially nursing his sore ankle. Can they keep turnovers to under 15% of their possessions? Big barometer in this one.
Is Bonzie Colson healthy? He certainly didn’t look like it on Thursday, and frankly, the Irish will lose if he replicates his performance. That’s not trying to knock him, but he just didn’t look right. He cannot hesitate with the ball so often and forego the boards like he did against Princeton. Have to hope for a more efficient one against a much tougher opponent. Tall ask for a man nursing a sore ankle.
We also need to mention the seniors, who were really poor offensively on Thursday. Beachem and Vasturia combined to go 4 for 21 from the field. Beachem was very lackadaisical going to the rim, and Vasturia just couldn’t convert when he got there. Neither could shoot from outside, which has been a more consistent problem lately than anyone would like to admit. They need to bounce back in a big way, no question about it.
The Prediction
Most pundits have this one circled as a top game in the Round of 32. You have the clash of styles and a widespread belief that both were underseeded, even if slightly. Both teams also impressed on the big stage during their conference tournaments and were showcased to a national audience last Saturday night.
I share the optimism that this is going to be a great, competitive game, despite the fact that both teams struggled against overmatched opponents in the first round. What was surprising was that the Irish struggled so much offensively and the Mountaineers so much defensively. In some ways, Notre Dame came off worse, as they legitimately could have lost and were a couple inches away from that happening. In another sense, West Virginia’s struggles came against a much worse opponent, despite the fact that they were always very unlikely to lose.
I’m very much of the mindset that you can just throw away previous rounds. Each game is its own thing with its own match-up problems, so I’m not necessarily panicked about Notre Dame’s inability to score late in the second half against Princeton.
That said, the Irish looked gassed, just like they did late against Duke. Have they hit a wall? And if they have, isn’t the pace and pressure of West Virginia just about the worst thing they can face?
And for all their defensive chops, the Mountaineers have given up 80 points in consecutive games. That could be a blip, but the Irish have reason to come into this game confident and ready to attack with their usual gameplan because it can work against these guys. Break the pressure and spread them out in the half-court.
Still, I can’t shake a nagging feeling that the Irish need more to go their way than do the Mountaineers. They need to avoid foul trouble (while also forcing West Virginia into some). They need to crash the boards and limit second chances. Their seniors need to bounce back in a big way, and Colson needs an ankle recovery in a hurry. Farrell needs to be clean for 40 minutes. The bench needs to contribute some positive or at least neutral minutes.
Are we likely to see all or even most of those things come true? Maybe, but I don’t have a great feeling that the Irish can put together both a resurgent offense (against a great defense) and a convincing rebounding effort to gain the upper hand. I feel better about the former than the latter. For three-quarters of Thursday’s game, Notre Dame looked to be well on its way to 70 points against a slow, boring team before they locked up. A more complete effort this time and a faster-paced game (and the adrenaline that comes with it), and I think they’ll eclipse 70.
But West Virginia will too. I’m very confident of this. If the Mountaineers get, say, 12-16 second-chance points, then they don’t need to be all that efficient in their other possessions to close in on 80 points total. Can Notre Dame get to the free throw line and actually hit enough of them to close that offensive rebounding gap? Can they out-shoot the Mountaineers from three with any sort of efficiency? The Irish are only shooting 69% at the free throw line and 29% from three this postseason. Yikes.
I’m guessing the shooting magic from most of this season is gone along with the team’s legs. They’ve compensated for that lately with much better defensive effort than we’ve seen throughout most of Mike Brey’s tenure. But at some point, this is still Notre Dame, and the Irish go down when they aren’t hitting shots. I think that troubling trend continues on Saturday, and this fun ride of a season comes to an end.
West Virginia 79
Notre Dame 72
69% from the stripe and 29% from deep, but still 3-1 versus some tough competition. Perhaps it is time to retire the “no defense” #narrative.
I agree that tempo is important in this one, but I don’t mind ND getting sped up a little. We have guys that are very good in the open court, and VJ has canned a ton of transition 3’s from the wing. Maybe that’s what it takes to get him going. WV also gave Bucknell a lot of clean looks at corner 3’s. That’s Steve’s jam right there. Perhaps Ryan can feast on those too.
Defensively, at least we get to put VJ closer to the rim again. I think we’ll likely pack it in and make them prove it over the top. Their best assist opportunity is likely missed shots. It is another game where help rotations come with big risks. Against Princeton, it was the draw and kick. Against WV, it is weak side put-backs. We have to limit those.
This is a great test. Play your A game, and it is very winnable. Play your C game again, and you’re gone.
I am weirdly optimistic about our offensive production because we seem to play very well when we are forced to speed up. Some of our uglier possessions happen when just throw the ball around the perimeter for 25 seconds and settle for a contested Matt Farrell jumper. Meanwhile, teams like Louisville that play quite frantically seem to wake us up to the challenge. Farrell in particular is very adept at blowing by guys trying to guard him 40 feet from the rim, penetrating, and kicking to any number of guys camping for 3’s at the wing. As long as we don’t shoot like we did at the Yum Center, I think we’ll be able to score.
We really have to limit second chance points. If we can get into a jump shooting contest with West Virginia, it’s obviously an advantage for us, but with a possibly hobbled Bonzie, we could get volleyball-ed down low. Like Adam mentioned, every Vasturia/Beachem/Pflueger rebound will be absolutely key.
Then again, a lot of this optimism is probably because the first two West Virginia games I think of from this year are their collapse against Kansas and Bucknell bombing some 3’s against them.
I don’t think we can keep up with them in a fast paced battle all game, but I agree that I want VJ getting some early transition looks. I think they will be available if we want them. Get him going a little bit, and who knows what happens.
With a healthy Bonzie, I would like our chances. As it stands, my head tells me no while my heart says yes. I think we’ll actually play slow in the first half and be down at the break. Brey will tell Farrell and Gibbs to just go out and ball in the second half, pace be damned, and we’ll put up 45 points for a 78-76 type win.
Every time I count out Steve or VJ, they come back in a big way? I think (or maybe just hope) they will do it again tomorrow.
Do we look exhausted already? Vastura gave a lazy pass to the wing, and when it got stolen jogged back instead of sprinted.
Tough final loss. Beachem really cost us with his shooting. 1-9 from 3 with many of them pretty open is not going to cut it against a good team. Farrell was taken out of the game not getting many opportunities on offense. And we did not handle their pressure well at all. Surprising.