Our first game week of 2017 is finally here! With the start of the season upon us, we thought a Notre Dame football opponent primer might be helpful. You know what has happened in the offseason at our own program, but it’s a bit more difficult to keep up with the goings-on at all 12 14 programs the Irish will face this year. As the Walking Schematic Advantage would say, time to dive in…

Temple

2016 Performance

Record: 10-4 (7-1 AAC), AAC champ

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 32nd/79th/16th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 35th/46th/29th

Prognosis

Temple has to replace six starters in the front seven (including DE Haason Redick, #13 overall pick in the NFL draft), a four-year starter at quarterback, their top rusher, and two starting offensive lineman. There’s some playmaking ability left at RB and WR, but still, that’s a lot of key attrition. They may pull things together later in the year, but replacing all that talent and having things run smoothly in Week 1 seems like a tall order. On top of that, they’re replacing the man in charge as well; Matt Rhule took the Baylor job and was replaced by Geoff Collins, former Florida defensive coordinator. With so much change, Temple is extremely likely to take a step back from their program zenith under Rhule.

Georgia

2016 Performance

Record: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 68th/93rd/34th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 54th/80th/36th

Prognosis

Georgia returns all 11 full-time defensive starters and will likely have to rely on them quite heavily, as their offense could be a problem all season. USC’s Ronald Johnson has an argument as the best running back the Irish will face this year, but nobody in the country has as good a 1-2 punch as Michel and Chubb. Aside from them, though…

  • The quarterback situation is muddled between true sophomore Jacob Eason and true freshman Jake Fromm; Fromm looked good in the spring game, but both have been up and down in fall camp.
  • Isaiah McKenzie, who declared early for the NFL, was their only proven playmaker in the passing game; junior Terry Godwin has 73 career catches at a 10.6 yard per catch clip, while sophomore Riley Ridley recorded an impressive 19.9 yard per catch last year but on only 12 receptions.
  • Most importantly, the offensive line has the potential to be a disaster; it was, charitably, mediocre last year and it lost three starters. The line will feature a 6’2″ guard at LT, a redshirt sophomore with two career appearances at LG, a mediocre DT-turned-RG at C, a redshirt freshman at RG, and a true freshman at RT. Georgia fans do not have the warm fuzzies.

In addition, the secondary has been been somewhat unsettled during camp and starting cornerback Malkom Parrish’s injury (broken foot, out several weeks) threw it further into disarray. Not only will Georgia miss his experience (25 career starts and solid disruption numbers), but his loss has had a domino effect on the entire defense; starting LB Lorenzo Carter has even gotten some snaps at nickel during camp. Tulsa transfer JR Reed and true freshman Richard Lecounte have gotten some first team reps at safety, too. They have athletes, for sure, and the front seven should be stout, but overall the defense is still a work in progress.

Boston College

2016 Performance

Record: 7-6 (2-6 ACC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 86th/124th/21st

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 93rd/121st/22nd

Prognosis

Don’t be fooled by the 7-6 record – Boston College was a bad team last year. Their record was buoyed considerably by an out of conference slate that featured FCS Wagner, UMass (S&P+ #117), UConn (#123), and Buffalo (#127), and a bowl game against equally weak Maryland (#87). Their top two rushers return and they add true freshman RB AJ Dillon, former ND recruit and Thom Gatewood’s grandson, but the offense will likely struggle mightily again. Their defense was solid, as usual, but by any measure their offense was one of the worst in the country – 118th in scoring, 96th in rushing, 120th in passing, 124th in S&P+, 121st in FEI, etc. etc. DE Harold Landry is one of the top prospects in the country this year and will look to improve on his 16.5 sacks from last year. He’s good. Boston College is not.

Michigan State

2016 Performance

Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 57th/66th/41st

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 67th/43rd/104th

Prognosis

The list of programs that had a worse 2016 than Notre Dame is pretty short, but Michigan State is on it. Yes, they beat the Irish last year, but that was about the last thing that went right for them. The defense was weak compared to Dantonio’s usual product. The offense was pedestrian, as it generally has been, but with less support from the defense the losses started to flow freely. A blowout loss to Penn State was the final insult of the season, but unlike Notre Dame, their disaster carried into the offseason. Four players were expelled as a result of two separate sexual assault incidents, including three key defenders and their top WR. A projected starting LB was voted off the team after reportedly using a racial slur. A starting OT lost his love for football and left the team. Starting DE Demetrius Cooper’s status is uncertain pending some minor legal issues. The secondary depth chart returns a total of 15 starts, with several expected contributors lost to injury or academic issues. The offensive line returns fewer than 40 career starts, with 25 of them coming from one guy.

Add all that to more typical attrition – they lost their starting QB, LT, C, TE, FB, DT, NT, MLB, and FS to graduation, and stars DE Malik McDowell and SS Montae Nicholson left early for the NFL. Bruising RB LJ Scott returns, but he’s a lonely guy. Their roster is a complete wreck wright now; .500 might well represent a substantial achievement for Dantonio this year.

Miami (OH)

2016 Performance

Record: 6-7 (6-2 MAC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 98th/102nd/75th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 77th/74th/58th

Prognosis

2016 was a tale of two seasons for Miami, as Chuck Martin’s charges opened 0-6, got their starting QB back from injury, and closed the regular season on a 6-0 run. They met Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl and nearly pulled off the upset, as the Bulldogs blocked a potential game-winning field goal attempt with five seconds left. Miami returns that QB, their top three RBs, two of their top three WRs, their starting TE, and four OL starters. On the other side of the ball, they lost both starting DEs but return everyone else. Martin will never have a better chance to build momentum in the Cradle of Coaches than he has this year.

North Carolina

2016 Performance

Record: 8-5 (5-3 ACC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 21st/26th/44th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 24th/35th/76th

Prognosis

You probably know that QB Mitch Trubisky is gone, taken #2 overall by the Chicago Bears after one of the more curious draft-day trades in memory. You might not know that the Tar Heels also lost nearly everyone else who had done anything on offense; they return a total of 37 of 1,914 rush yards (not a misprint) and 1,123 of 3,811 receiving yards, and they lost two all-ACC offensive linemen. And while they return a lot of pieces on defense, they lost their defensive coordinator; Gene Chizik decided to step away to spend more time with his family. LB coach John Pachuchis stepped in for Chizik and will look to continue his positive momentum. In a departure from its recent history under Larry Fedora, North Carolina’s defense may need to carry the weight for its offense in 2017.

USC

2016 Performance

Record: 10-3 (7-2 PAC 12)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 9th/11th/20th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 12th/22nd/37th

Prognosis

After opening the season 1-3 and seeming in utter disarray, USC closed with a vengeance. They won their last nine games, capped by a stirring comeback win over Penn State in the Rose Bowl, and landed at #3 in the final AP poll. That stretch run plus the ascendancy of Sam Darnold as the presumed #1 pick in the 2018 NFL draft has many penciling USC into the top 10 again. They have a good number of questions marks, though, as they return just 10 starters total from last year’s team; they’ll have talent, as always, but they won’t have much experience. Darnold and RB Ronald Johnson are back and are unquestionably two of the best in the country at their positions. However, top WRs Juju Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers are gone, as are last year’s starting LT, LG, and RT. The defense lost CB Adoree Jackson and S Leon McQuay, as well as an ILB and both DTs. The Trojans also lost all four team captains – reserve QB Max Browne, LT Zach Banner, Jackson, and ILB Michael Hutchings.

Will they be terrible? No, almost assuredly not. Realistically, though, that’s an awful lot of experience and leadership to replace in one offseason. They open with home games against Western Michigan, Stanford, and Texas – those three games could tell us a lot about how well they’ve replaced the missing pieces.

NC State

2016 Performance

Record: 7-6 (3-5 ACC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 25th/55th/11th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 43rd/53rd/28th

Prognosis

The Wolfpack lost top RB Matthew Hayes, who accounted for over half their rushing yards last year, but return QB Ryan Finley and his top four receiving targets. WDE Bradley Chubb, who has former #1 overall pick Mario Williams’s school sack record in sight, will be neck-and-neck with Harold Landry for “Best Notre Dame Opponent DE” honors. SDE Kentavius Street is no slouch either; they and their linemates make up arguably the best defensive front the Irish will see this year. The defense returns nine starters overall. Things in Raleigh seem primed for HC Dave Doeren to break through the 7/8 win barrier, but can he pull it off in a division with Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville?

Wake Forest

2016 Performance

Record: 7-6 (3-5 ACC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 60th/109th/22nd

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 63rd/106th/31st

Prognosis

Through six weeks last year, the Deacons stood at 5-1 with a road loss to NC State and road wins over Duke and Indiana. Then the wheels came off a bit; they went 1-5 over the second half of the season as their offense turned from anemic to lifeless (14.2 points per game). They went into the offseason with more positive vibes after knocking off AAC champion Temple in the Military Bowl, although the loss of rising star DC Mike Elko to Notre Dame was a bit of a damper. HC Dave Clawson replaced Elko with Minnesota DC Jay Sawvel, who was a GA at ND in the late 90’s for Lou Holtz and Bob Davie. Small world. Perhaps of more concern, or at least equal concern, is that they lost three of their top four performers in each of tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, and QB hurries. They return almost everyone who did anything on offense, but, well… Look at those offensive rankings. Returning everyone might not necessarily be a good thing. To make things worse, they have a bit of a QB controversy. Last year’s original starter, Kendall Hinton, went down with injury and his replacement, John Wolford, played, well, not great, but well enough to not be automatically out of the running when Hinton got healthy. So now they have to figure that out as well.

They seem like a pretty good bet to regress, which could possibly warm up Dave Clawson’s seat a bit.

Miami

2016 Performance

Record: 9-4 (5-3 ACC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 14th/34th/13th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 10th/50th/13th

Prognosis

Mark Richt showed some incremental progress over Al Golden’s tenure in his first season at the helm of his alma mater. The season was maddeningly inconsistent, with four straight wins to start, four straight losses in the middle, and five more wins to close it out. However, while Golden’s 2015 squad was badly embarrassed twice (58-0 vs. Clemson and 59-21 at UNC) and lost to an unranked team in a mediocre bowl (Wazzu in the Sun), Richt’s only got mildly embarrassed once (37-16 at Virginia Tech) and beat a ranked opponent in a mediocre bowl (then-#14 West Virginia in the Russell Athletic). Yay, progress! They also return six starters in a very good front seven, which should be good enough to give them a fighting chance against almost anyone in the country. And they return their top RB and most of their top receivers.

On the downside… QB Brad Kaaya (6th round draft pick), starting WR Stacey Coley (7th round), and playmaking TE David Njoku (1st round) are gone. They could probably handle the loss of Njoku and Coley without too much interruption, but Kaaya is a big loss. Not because he was a world-beater, necessarily, but because their options to replace him are not good. Junior Malik Rozier is 21/61 for 370 yards (6.1 ypa) with 2 TDs and 3 INTs in 13 career games. Redshirt sophomore Evan Shirreffs might have the edge right now but it’s close, and he’s never thrown a pass in competition. True freshman N’kosi Perry is the other option, but not really. They also return a lot of experience on their offensive line but it’s hard to say how many starters they return in the way the word is generally used, as the experience is kind of all over the place. They need to get their offensive line situation sorted out quickly or it won’t matter who the quarterback is.

Navy

2016 Performance

Record: 9-5 (7-1 AAC)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 52nd/17th/100th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 48th/1st/118th

Prognosis

Navy tore through their first 11 games last year with a 9-2 record, which of course included their methodical win over Notre Dame. They stumbled badly at the end, though, as they were clobbered by Temple in the AAC championship game, lost to Army for the first time since 2001, and scored 45 points but lost to Louisiana Tech in the Armed Forces bowl. Ken Niumatalolo is about as far from being on a hot seat as a coach can possibly be, but even so, he could use a fast start to 2017 to erase some of those bad memories. They lost seven starters on offense, including QB Will Worth and three offensive linemen. The defense returns a lot of experience but, similar to Wake Forest’s offensive returners, that might not mean much.

Junior QB Zach Abey looked shaky in those final three games last year, relieving Worth after a season-ending injury during the Temple game, and has looked shaky during prep for this season. Any offense relies heavily on its quarterback, but perhaps no offense does so to the extent that the triple option does. If Abey can step up, the Middies should be fine. If not, it could be a very long season.

Stanford

2016 Performance

Record: 10-3 (6-3 PAC 12)

S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense: 23rd/60th/18th

FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 30th/79th/11th

Prognosis

Stanford sat at a bit of a crossroads when they arrived in South Bend last year; they were 3-2, with solid opening wins against Kansas State, USC, and UCLA, followed by thorough thrashings at the hands of Washington (44-6) and Washington State (42-16). That was followed by winning a game that Notre Dame worked desperately to give to them, dropping a squeaker to then-#10 Colorado, and reeling off six straight wins to end the season. The Cardinal return a number of pieces, including four starters on the OL and seven of the back eight starters in their 3-4 defense, but they lost their two biggest stars: #3 overall pick DE Solomon Thomas and #8 overall RB Christian McCaffrey. Speedy RB Bryce Love is a different style of runner than McCaffrey but should be a capable replacement. Replacing Thomas, however, is a taller order.

Inexperienced redshirt senior Eric Cotton will try to fill the shoes of Thomas, who led Stanford in tackles (62), solo tackles (41), tackles for loss (15.0), and sacks (8.0) last year. 41 solo tackles by a defensive end. That’s nuts! Returning DT Harrison Phillips, an honorable selection to the all-conference team in 2016, is the best candidate to replace Thomas’s disruption numbers. Also gone is SS Dallas Lloyd, who led the Cardinal in interceptions (5) and was second in tackles (61). Former Notre Dame target Justin Reid, who started last year at FS, will move to SS, while 2016 reserve FS Brandon Simmons will step into the starting role.