Michigan State didn’t fall off a cliff last year they flew off it on fire with exploding fire works inside the car as the problems have continued right through the spring and into the summer. The Spartans are coming off a 3-9 season which is their most losses since 1982 and a bunch of off-field problems have quickly turned up the heat on previous untouchable Mark Dantonio.
Yet, this team did beat Notre Dame last year, ha!
Michigan State
2016 Record: 3-9
2016 S&P Rank: 57
Offense Returning Production Rank: 116
Defense Returning Production Rank: 107
Picking up the Pieces
Okay, here we go. Starting defensive end Demetrius Cooper was charged with assault after spitting on a PACE officer in November, violated his bond agreement this spring taping himself drinking booze, and agreed to daily alcohol testing which could reduce his sentence to littering. He did not participate in the spring game.
Linebacker Jon Reschkne apparently said something so awful to a teammate that he was voted off the team. Possible starting defensive end Auston Robertson was dismissed from the team following a sexual misconduct charge. Corner Tyson Smith revealed he suffered a stroke late last year and is still in the recovery process.
Further, a sexual assault case was opened up several months ago and centers around 3 (still unnamed) football players and it could lead to dismissal from school for all involved. There are rumors it involves some of the Spartans’ best players, too.
In total, 15 players didn’t suit up in the Michigan State spring game whether it be injuries or otherwise.
Rebuilding with the Pieces
The Spartans will have to break in a new quarterback, top wideout, top tight end, and 3 new starters on the offensive line. Both defensive lineman Malik McDowell (2nd round, 35th overall, Seattle) and safety Montae Nicholson (4th round, 123rd overall, Washington) left early and were drafted. Half of the top 12 tacklers from a year ago need to be replaced.
Without off-field troubles this would be a challenging rebuilding process for any program.
Making matters worse, the Spartans were pretty much average to bad across the board in all areas last year. There really isn’t one area right now where they can hang their hat heading into 2017. Particularly troubling (and it makes you wonder if the loss of Pat Narduzzi is beginning to impact the defense) is the usually strong defensive backfield plummeting to 120th in S&P+ pass defense a year ago. They were last seen getting smoked by Trace McSorley and the Penn State offense.
Dantonio’s Challenge
Mark Dantonio bought himself enough of credit prior to 2016 that something like a 7-5 or 8-4 season shouldn’t be too much of a problem, unlike his counterpart in South Bend. However, the off-field issues could really do some serious harm both perception-wise and with the loss of talented players.
Redshirt sophomore Brian Lewerke appears to have easily won the quarterback competition during the spring which should offer some stability. L.J. Scott and Gerald Holmes both return in the backfield as the team’s leading rushers, too. If the offensive line can improve the young receivers should be good enough for the offense as a whole to have decent potential.
It’s just weird to comment on a Michigan State defense that has so many questions at defensive line and in the secondary. The schedule won’t be favorable either with both the Michigan and Ohio State games on the road, plus pesky visits to Minnesota and Northwestern.
Summer Spread: Irish Favored by 2.5 Points
Road game against a traditional rival coming off a terrible season there’s no way the Irish should be favored, right? Well, things have been worse in East Lansing in just about every respect, even with the victory over Notre Dame last year. In South Bend things have been rejuvenated to a greater degree (new coaches, new strength program, good recruiting finish) whereas Michigan State has been spinning their wheels and batting off scandal and questions about the direction of the football program.
Buy or Sell: 8 Wins for MSU in 2017
Sell, too many questions marks and the great run by Dantonio had to end at some point. If one or two more of their best players face suspension or worse I can’t see the Spartans keeping up with the top teams in their division.
Know a Player: WR Donnie Corley
The rising sophomore is Michigan State’s leading returning pass catcher by a mile. Corley put up a respectable 33 receptions, 453 yards, and 3 touchdowns as a true freshman in 2016. He also caught a touchdown in Notre Dame Stadium last year.
Outfitter: Nike
Michigan State has been with Nike forever and re-signed with the company in the summer of 2015 for another 10 years. The Spartans are receiving about $3.4 million per season in cash and apparel from the contract.
Most Important Game: Notre Dame
It’d be an incredible turnaround if Michigan State can compete for a division title. I’m roughly 87% sure that’s out of the question for 2017. Even though the game against Notre Dame is early it comes after a bye week and could lead to a much-needed 3-0 and possibly 4-0 start.
One positive we can take from ND’s current situation – at least things don’t look as bad as they do at Michigan State! But then, as Eric mentioned, Sparty did beat ND last year
“There really isn’t one area right now where they can hang their hat heading into 2017.”
I don’t think that’s entirely correct – we would trade our running backs for LJ Scott and Holmes in a hot second. Scott is probably going to be the best (or at least most talented) player on the field in the ND-MSU game. They could easily keep this one close by killing clock and squeak it out.
Eh, I think Scott is a bit overrated. Plus, we were better (and in some cases a lot better) in rushing S&P+, rushing success rate, rushing opportunity rate, power success rate, and stuff rate.
Last year was a pretty clear indication that MSU can’t hang their hat on the run game. Although your last sentence is right if our defense continues to suck.
I would take healthy Adams over those guys in a heartbeat. I know our O Line has been a lot better than MSU’s during Adams’ two seasons, but statistically he’s just been so much better than either of them. His breakaway ability, when healthy, is better than either of them as well, and I’d probably take him in the passing game as well.
Honestly I think .500 would be a reasonable expectation for them this year. They were 104th (!) in defensive FEI last year and lost quite a bit of productive talent and, as E notes, could very well lose more before the season starts. And I don’t think Dantonio made any substantive changes to personnel or approach in the offseason – he’s going with a “damn the torpedoes” strategy, I guess. I don’t think they’ll be significantly improved and I’ll be bitterly disappointed if we don’t pull this game off.
I think you can pencil in the Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame games as losses, and the Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern games as toss-ups. The OSU, Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern games are all on the road too. The game against Fleck-less WMU in Week 2 is no gimme, even with the talent the Broncs lost in the offseason.
Well we don’t have to remember Donnie Corley anymore. Yikes.