The second annual 18S preseason prediction poll is here. Whee! You may remember our somewhat crestfallen end-of-season review of last year’s results; undeterred by experience, we enter once more unto the breach, dear friends. As much of a downer as the final three games were, last season actually exceeded many of our preseason expectations. Our expectations are a bit higher this year (generally speaking); if we exceed them again, well, it’s going to be something.

Last year was an offseason of chaos and reinvention in response to the 2016 season in which we didn’t play football and if you say differently I’m going to lose it so let’s not talk about it, OK? This offseason was relatively calm, with the notable exceptions of Mike Elko’s defection to Texas A&M and Harry Hiestand’s return to the NFL. Brian Kelly opted for continuity in both cases, promoting Elko assistant Clark Lea to DC and offensive analyst/former right-hand-man Jeff Quinn to OL coach. There were no academic or behavioral casualties (knock on wood), and arguably the most important stay-or-go player decisions – Te’Von Coney, Jerry Tillery, and Drue Tranquill – all swung the right way.

It’s quiet. Almost… too quiet…

Which might help explain our optimism, but as good Irish fans, of course we live in fear of God’s flyswatter coming down on us with great vengeance and furious anger at some point. Sports are so much fun, amirite?

Percentages are rounded, so they may occasionally add up to 99% or 101%. But this isn’t exactly scientific, you know? I promise nobody here has his finger on the scale; in fact we banished nd-atl to the timeout room, just to be safe.

Finally, a note of appreciation: When we did this reader survey last year, we got 58 responses. This year’s survey received a whopping 242 responses, more than four times as many as a year ago. The 18S staff puts a lot of effort into writing content that interests people, and to see growth like that in our engagement, well… Thank you to all of you for making this site the community that it is!

Without further ado, then… The results!

Big Picture Stuff

What will Notre Dame’s 2018 regular season record be?

  • 12-0 – 6%
  • 11-1 – 13%
  • 10-2 – 43%
  • 9-3 – 30%
  • 8-4/7-5 – 9%
  • 6-6 or worse – 0%

So that’s 62% of you who think we’ll go 10-2 or better, compared to 26% last year. Funny how much can change in a year… The staff is a little less bullish, with 58% calling a record of 10-2 or better and 42% expecting something between 7-5 and 9-3. Notably, perhaps, not one vote in either group for the disaster “6-6 or worse” scenario.

Everything is a hypothetical at this point, of course, but it’s quite possible that the opener against Michigan will be the hardest game of the year. Win that game, and the odds of 10-2 and a New Year’s Six bowl bid go up substantially.


Bonus poll question: Deathbed total enlightenment, or Irish national title? I know my vote…

What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?

  • Quarterback play – 65%
  • Lack of proven playmakers on offense – 12%
  • Running back depth – 11%
  • Offensive line play – 5%
  • Brian Kelly – 3%
  • Linebacker depth – 1%
  • Safety play – 1%
  • Rookie DC – 1%
  • Potential shift in offensive strategy – < 1%

No surprise here that quarterback play thumps every other option, as it did in the staff survey with 67% of the vote. There are other question marks on the roster, to be sure, but none match the scope or impact of quarterback play question. Personally I think offensive line play got a bit of short shrift here; replacing two top-ten picks and arguably the top OL coach in the country is a tall order. I don’t think Quinn, Eichenberg, and Bars need to be as good as Hiestand, McGlinchey, and Nelson were for the line to be successful, but even so…

Kudos to the three write-in votes here as well: “No David Shaw tears on the JumboTron on Sept. 29,” “Getting Justin Yoon enough FGs to get the Heisman,” and “None.” Whoever put that last one in – either you’re new here, or…

Seriously though, do you?

Superlatives

Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?

  • Brandon Wimbush – 40%
  • Chase Claypool – 26%
  • Miles Boykin – 9%
  • Jafar Armstrong – 6%
  • Ian Book – 3%
  • Cole Kmet – 3%
  • Sam Mustipher – 3%
  • Dexter Williams – 3%
  • Tony Jones – 2%
  • Alize Mack – 1%
  • Alex Bars, Phil Jurkovec, Tommy Kraemer, Justin Yoon, Offensive Line, the field – <1%

What jumps out immediately is that 65% of respondents picked quarterback play as their largest concern, yet 40% predict Brandon Wimbush will be the offensive MVP. So at least 5% of you are most worried about his play and think he’ll be the MVP. I don’t think those views are entirely incompatible; you can be worried about something and still think it’ll work out. And if Wimbush does indeed work out, he (and the offense) could be phenomenal. The staff was more evenly divided, with 33% taking Wimbush and the rest of the votes being spread pretty evenly among the headliners.

Other items of note are the imbalance between votes for Claypool and Boykin (I voted for Claypool, by the way), a lot of love for neophyte Jafar Armstrong, and a combined 5% of votes for the offensive line.

Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?

  • Te’Von Coney – 55%
  • Drue Tranquill – 18%
  • Julian Love – 15%
  • Jerry Tillery – 9%
  • Troy Pride – 1%
  • Nick Coleman, Shaun Crawford, Khalid Kareem, Tyler Newsome – <1%

I think we have a special teams nut among our voters… Anyway, Te’Von Coney is clearly the fan favorite here, and for good reason. He logged starter-level action in just eight of 13 games last season, and still was Kelly’s most prolific Irish tackler not named Manti Te’o. In fact, setting Te’o’s 2010 and 2011 seasons aside, you’d have to go all the way back to Courtney Watson in 2003 to find someone who recorded more than Coney’s 116 tackles. And Watson had 117. We’ll dig into this a bit more below, but yeah, there’s a pretty good chance that Coney is going to be really good this year.

50% of the staff took Coney as well, with 42% taking Julian Love. Solid bets.


Coney has a message for opposing offenses.

Which unit will provide the play of the year?

  • Defense – 66%
  • Offense – 27%
  • Special Teams – 7%

No surprise here given the expected quality of the defense and the uncertainty around all the skill positions on offense. 83% of the staff also said the defense, with 17% choosing special teams. Yes, the offense got shut out in our vote… Will it be a defensive score? A game-clinching takeaway? A dramatic goal line stand? This involves a lot of projection and optimism, of course, but I think this defense has more playmakers than we’re used to. Coney, Tranquill, and Love have all proven themselves already. I think Pride and Kareem are going to surprise a lot of people this year. Tillery gets to rush from the more natural one-tech position. Crawford has a nose for the ball and is further removed from two years of injury. Even the safeties should get in on it, with a more experienced Nick Coleman and an unshackled Alohi Gilman (apparently the last hardship waiver the NCAA is ever going to deny, but I digress) patrolling the deep middle.

Who will lead the team in receptions?

  • Chase Claypool – 62%
  • Miles Boykin – 31%
  • Alize Mack – 4%
  • Cole Kmet – 3%

Man, Claypool is getting a lot of love… And deservedly so, the kid has NFL physical ability. The only question is maturity; he’s shown more production than some (cough Mack cough) in a similar boat, but even so, he had some growing up to do. Early signs seem to suggest he may have (mostly) done that. If he can focus consistently, watch out.


Chip Long drawing up plays for Claypool before the USC game.

Which freshman will make the biggest immediate impact?

  • Kevin Austin – 44%
  • Houston Griffith – 38%
  • Braden Lenzy – 14%
  • Shayne Simon – 7%
  • Jayson Ademilola, Bo Bauer, Phil Jurkovec – <1%

That’s a pretty talented group of kids. Austin, by all accounts, already has an upperclassman physique and has shown enough in camp to be a legitimate rotation piece. Griffith is an athletically gifted early enrollee at a position of need. Both certainly belong at the top of this list. Lenzy is probably the fastest kid on the team, and maybe by a good margin, but he’s also really skinny and it could limit his immediate opportunity. I’d still love to see him on kick returns, though… Simon, like Austin, is very advanced physically for his age, but the (apparent) emergence of Asmar Bilal might make it more difficult for him to make in impact right away. Interesting votes for Ademilola, Bauer, and PJ; I do think they’ll be part of the equation this year but I don’t know how much. I kind of think they’ll all be four-game redshirts, but we’ll see.

The staff voted pretty similarly, with 67% taking Austin, 17% taking Griffith, and 17% taking Lenzy. Sorry, other dudes.


Harsh, but fair. Until next year, anyway.

Over/Under

5 wins in the first 6 games (Michigan, Ball State, Vandy, @ Wake Forest, Stanford, @ Va Tech)

  • Readers: 52% over, 48% under
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

5 wins in the final 6 games (Pitt, @ Navy [San Diego], @ Northwestern, Florida State, Syracuse [NYC], @ Southern Cal)

  • Readers: 47% over, 53% under
  • Staff: 67% over, 33% under

I took some heat for setting the lines for these at 5, instead of 4.5 or 5.5. It was something I actually wrestled with and discussed with the team in the writers’ room before publishing the survey, and I had my reasons for the integer, but in the end I think it’s fair criticism. It came up after some votes were already in, though, so next year… What’s most interesting here is that the readers and staff showed exactly reversed optimism about the season halves. Personally I dread the second half of the season and its insane travel slate, and I’m usually the optimist here.


The commentariat upon seeing these lines.

BK average of 24 team sacks (Last season: 24.0)

  • Readers: 90% over, 10% under
  • Staff: 100% over

BK average of 71 team tackles for loss (Last season: 79.0)

  • Readers: 94% over, 6% under
  • Staff: 100% over

Well… We are all fully in the tank for Clark Lea. I voted over on both, but not without some trepidation, particularly on the sack number. Last year the over won the poll by about a 3:2 margin, with the proven Mike Elko taking on the BVG Reclamation Project. Again, this is the resident optimist here saying that I’m utterly shocked at how very nearly unanimous we are in our expectations here. From your fingertips to God’s ears, folks.

10.5 possessions versus Navy (BK average: 9.9)

  • Readers: 45% over, 55% under
  • Staff: 58% over, 42% under

Once again the staff is a touch more bullish here. This line is, to steal one of Kelly’s favorite terms, very intentional: In Kelly-era games with Navy, 11+ possessions indicate a blowout win and 10 or fewer indicate a dogfight. Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry is much more of a home run threat than they typically have, and option-wrecker Greer Martini is gone. Are the staff’s positive vibes misplaced?

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Bob Diaco’s fishing trip, c. 2010.

4.5 non-offense touchdowns (BK average: 4.0)

  • Readers: 64% over, 36% under
  • Staff: 58% over, 42% under

So, uh, problem here… 4.0 sounded high, so I checked my math and yes indeed, it’s dramatically high. The actual average under Kelly is 2.4 non-offense touchdowns per year. I have no idea where I got 4.0 from, but I’ll take this as a sign that I should lay off the cannonballs.


Dammit Rigney, I said no mas!

0.5 interceptions by safeties (Last season: 0)

  • Readers: 99% over, 1% under
  • Staff: 100% over

This is a bit tongue-in-cheek, of course, as it’s nearly impossible to go through an entire season without a pick by a safety. Nearly impossible, but the Irish pulled it off in 2017. Congrats! You would think that the guys could beat this line even by accident. Personally, I’m pulling for Alohi Gilman to put it to bed in the first quarter on Saturday.

800 rushing yards by Brandon Wimbush, not including sacks (Last season: 914; BK best by non-Wimbush: 2015 Deshone Kizer, 657)

  • Readers: 56% over, 44% under
  • Staff: 50% over, 50% under

In a sense this question is a proxy for whether you think Wimbush will hold onto his starting job. Kelly and Long have said things lately that hint they’re willing to run Wimbush more because they know Book is a capable player. If that’s the case, Wimbush could well surpass last season’s total and Tony Rice’s school record.

120 tackles by Te’Von Coney (Last season: 116; BK best: 2010 Manti Te’o, 129)

  • Readers: 48% over, 52% under
  • Staff: 58% over, 42% under

We mentioned that Coney got “starter-level” run in just eight games last year. More specifically, he played 57% of defensive snaps, compared to 86% for Drue Tranquill, 78% for Nyles Morgan, and 45% for Greer Martini. It’s reasonable to expect his usage to spike to somewhere around Morgan’s, if not a bit higher. On the flip side, we don’t know if the move from Buck to Mike will adversely affect his tackle totals, or if Tranquill’s move to Buck will steal some opportunities from him.

Even so, given his productivity last year in fairly limited usage, I really like his chances to hit this mark. If he does, he’ll become just the fourth Irish player to log 120 tackles since Bob Crable left campus after the 1981 season. The other three are Tony Furjanic (1985, 147), Demetrius Dubose (1991, 127), and Manti Te’o (2010, 129; 2011, 128). Pretty solid company.


Live shot of Clay Helton asking God why He sent Coney in to regulate.

8 sacks by Khalid Kareem (Last season: 3.0; BK best: 2012 Stephon Tuitt, 11.0)

  • Readers: 21% over, 79% under
  • Staff: 25% over, 75% under

The more I think about this one, the more I think the line might be conservative. Seriously. Kareem came on late last season, continued to trend upwards in the spring, reportedly had a great summer in workouts, then was nearly unblockable in fall camp. He has a blend of power and speed that he applies with long arms and a tenacious attitude. There’s a very good chance he’ll be not just the best pass rusher on this team, but perhaps the best since Romeo Okwara in 2015 or, perish the thought, big Steph himself.

Yeah, three-quarters of everyone disagrees. Come at me, bro.

52.5 yards as longest field goal made by Justin Yoon (Career long: 52, 2015)

  • Readers: 41% over, 59% under
  • Staff: 58% over, 42% under

Many of you may have been victims of timing here; a lot of votes came in before the official ND Football twitter account posted a video of Yoon nailing a 62-yarder with room to spare. The house will still gladly take your money, though. Them’s the breaks.


Yoon laughing at you all as he nails another 60-yarder with ease.

1.5 games won by Justin Yoon

  • Readers: 44% over, 56% under
  •  Staff: 42% over, 58% under

Much like the Wimbush rushing yards line, this is a proxy for a different question: How many close wins do you think Notre Dame will log this year? You and we were most in step on this one. There’s a pretty good chance, given the relatively even tale of the tape, that he might get a good way to this line on Saturday.

4 meaningful appearances by Ian Book and/or Phil Jurkovec

  • Readers: 49% over, 51% under
  • Staff: 50% over, 50% under

Once again, a proxy for how consistent Wimbush can be – the QB1 job is clearly his, but how firm a hold he can maintain on it is an open question. I’d actually be surprised if Jurkovec takes a meaningful snap this year; it’s an awful lot to ask of a true freshman fall enrollee, no matter how talented he is. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Book with the game in doubt, though, either to replace a shaky Wimbush or, as Kelly alluded, to give him a rest when he’s been running a lot.

4.5 games before Dexter Williams’s “traits” allow him to get 10+ carries in a game

  • Readers: 61% over, 39% under
  • Staff: 75% over, 25% under

Kevin Stepherson provided what is likely a very good template for this last year. He missed the first four games, then got 10, 13, and 18 snaps in the next three before returning essentially to full-time status in game 8. It’s not a perfect template, as Dexter could potentially provide a bigger part of the answer at running back than KJ did at receiver. But I can give you 420 reasons why it’s a good template. And I’ll leave it at that.


Stay away from blondes in visors, Dex. Just a suggestion.

1.5 Nicco Fertitta ejections

  • Readers: 8% over, 92% under
  • Staff: 25% over, 75% under

Go ahead and underestimate the Human Cruise Missile. But don’t forget to watch your six.

Also, this:

He’s watching, people. Beware.

0.5 Red Sox references by Kelly during Shamrock Series week

  • Readers: 81% over, 19% under
  • Staff: 100% over

Obviously I should’ve set this line higher. I don’t remember if Kelly got any digs in the last time the Irish played in Yankee Stadium, but regardless, it’s hard to imagine him not taking a shot this year. Maybe it’ll depend on how the MLB playoffs go. But he’s clearly a proud Mass****, so…

Prop Bets

Who will start at running back against Michigan?

  • Readers: 89% Tony Jones, 11% the field
  • Staff: 100% Tony Jones

Who will start at running back against USC?

  • Readers: 46% Dexter Williams, 54% the field
  • Staff: 17% Dexter Williams, 83% the field

As the only back with any experience, Jones seems like an extremely safe bet to start against what will probably be the toughest defense the Irish face all year. The rest of the picture is significantly muddied. Will one of the newbies emerge before Dexter’s super-secret suspension is over? Will Jones do enough to hold them off? Even if someone does become a clear RB1, will he be able to hold off Dexter in the second half of the season?

I hate to disappoint our readers who are rightly infatuated with Dex’s athleticism, but I think the staff vote is probably pretty reflective of his chances of seizing the starting job. It’s not just the pass blocking; he has also shown a tendency to tap out fairly quickly and to not know the playbook very well, either running or passing. Those kinds of things don’t get coaches to name you a starter. Maybe he had a great awakening – camp reports were pretty positive about his attitude and work ethic, and I hope they’re right. But it’s tough to bet on that right now.

The Irish will have a 1,000 yard rusher in 2018.

  • Readers: 32% true, 68% false
  • Staff: 25% true, 75% false

Dovetailing with the above, the muddied backfield situation makes this seem like a safe “no” bet. A wild card here is Wimbush; if he can maintain his hold on the QB1 job, he might crack the mark himself (excluding sacks). If a running back does it, that will probably mean that the offense had a great year.

The Irish will have a 1,000 yard receiver in 2018.

  • Readers: 30% true, 70% false
  • Staff: 50% true, 50% false

I voted yes here because I think Claypool has an excellent shot to top this number, assuming moderately consistent delivery of the ball. It would be Notre Dame’s first 1,000-yard season since ESPLOSIVA shredded 2015 opponents for 1,258 yards. On the “reasons for pessimism” side, it would be Notre Dame’s first 1,000-yard season since 2015…

Sometimes something looks like poo and isn’t poo. Just saying.

Who will lead the team in touchdowns scored?

  • Readers: Brandon Wimbush 73%, the field 27%
  • Staff: Brandon Wimbush 83%, the field 17%

Wimbush ran away with this last year, finding the end zone 14 times compared to Josh Adams’s nine scores and a three way tie for third at five scores with Kevin Stepherson, Deon McIntosh, and Dexter Williams. Given his red zone prowess, and assuming health and effectiveness in the passing game, it’s hard to see anyone else leading the team this year. Those are pretty big assumptions, though, so I don’t fault anyone who chose the field.

Who will lead the team in sacks?

  • Readers: Khalid Kareem 34%, the field 66%
  • Staff: Khalid Kareem 42%, the field 58%

I’m telling you, don’t sleep on this guy. He’s going to have a monster year. He’s Tuitt Lite. Can he become the second player of the Kelly era to record double-digit sacks in a season, as Tuitt did in 2012? I believe he can. Recording three or so on Saturday would be a deluxe way to begin the season.

Who will lead the team in interceptions?

  • Readers: Troy Pride 17%, the field 83%
  • Staff: Troy Pride 33%, the field 67%

Julian Love is really good, as evidenced by his 3 interceptions and school-record 20 passes broken up in 2017. In fall camp, he looked like he’s taken a step up from last year. Also in fall camp, Troy Pride looked much better than him. They could be our best secondary tandem since… Well… The beat guys have mentioned Shane Walton and Vontez Duff, or Bobby Taylor and Jeff Burris. Seriously. We’re having a hard time not dipping into the Kool Aid in our staff discussions, because man, this defense has every indication of being exceptional. 2012 good? Too early to say, but it’s also not crazy to ask. Anyway, all of that is a long way of saying that while the field is always a smart choice on questions like this, don’t sleep on Troy Pride either.

Wrapping Up

We’re all slightly more optimistic about this year than last year, but we still have significant reservations. The defense has a floor of “very good” and a ceiling of “excellent.” The offense, on the other hand, probably has a ceiling of “very good” and a floor of “let’s not go there.” I don’t think a terrible offense is on the table, but it’s not out of the room either. It’s hiding among the dust bunnies under the table, waiting to pounce on the unprepared. There are plenty of athletes on both sides of the ball, so at worst I expect the entertainment value this season to be pretty high. This feels like yet another opportunity for the program to take a big step forward, with back-to-back “good” seasons for the first time in seemingly forever (really 25 years, but who’s counting?). Can Kelly continue the momentum from the thrilling Citrus Bowl win with a signature effort on Saturday against a top-15 Michigan team? If he does, can he keep it rolling through November?

So many questions. One thing we can all agree on is that it’s great to have college football back in our lives. Given the forecast for Saturday evening in South Bend, which calls for scattered thunderstorms, we’ll leave you with one final thought – GET THIS GAME IN.

You didn’t really think we’d leave this one out, did you?