Eight scant days until the season starts! We’ll keep this short and simple – like last year, we’re doing a staff preseason prediction poll, and like last year, we want your opinions too. Those of you with better memories than us will recognize a lot of the same questions, with several tweaks and additions. Please take a minute to go through your thoughts here, and next week we’ll publish a summary of both polls. And then we can all resume laughing at Meatchicken.
UPDATE: We’ve shut down the survey so I can start writing the article. Thanks to everyone who participated, both in the survey and in the comments below. Oh yeah, and… IT’S GAME WEEK!
Other than 2nd half wins, Coney, Yoon, I think I took the over on everything else. Life’s too short to bet the under, folks!
Great survey, can’t wait for the season.
Gotta put a .5 on those Games Won Over/Unders. I’m thinking exactly 5 in the final 6.
Yeah, “push” should be an option.
I actually talked about this with the guys the other day when I was putting this together. I was on the fence about using 4.5 or 5.5 for one or both of those questions, ultimately went with the integer to force people to make a bigger call. But there’s a very reasonable case to be made for the 0.5.
But you’re eliminating one of the prime options (5-pun intended). If you think we’re going to go 10-2, which seems to be a popular choice, you can’t also pick an early season loss and a late season loss. You’re forcing people not to make a bigger call, but to make calls inconsistent with their overall record choice because of how it’s broken up. I chose 9-3, but I don’t think we’re going to lose 3 games in either the first or the last half, so I’m stuck, since I can’t pick 5 wins in either half.
Also true. I wanted the two halves to stand independently, which in real life I know they don’t, but here… For my part, btw, I picked 11-1, with “over” for the first half and “under” for the second half. I’m hedging.
So 5 wins is “under”? Then I guess I did it right by picking under for both.
No, I meant I’m hedging my own bets by picking 11-1 in the record question but, effectively, 10-2 in the pair of season halves question.
To be honest 10-2 is turning out to be a much more popular answer than I thought it would be (hovering around 45%); I thought 9-3 would win going away.
Well, I’m one of the resident “pessimists” and I picked 9-3, so…
I mean, I can SEE 8-4, or even a non-crazy 7-5. But I think 9-3 is the most likely outcome, and of course I could be pleasantly surprised with better.
Choosing the optimistic route: Winbush has a breakout year due to his year of experience, familiarity with Long’s system, and growth in mental toughness/resilience. He passes for 55% plus which opens up more lanes for running backs. The backs a very impressive but unspectacular year: not many 50+ yard runs, but lots of 4 – 12 yard runs. ND gets some breaks with turnovers, allowing them to win a couple of games (Stanford, Michigan, FSU) that they would otherwise may have lost. It is the anti-2016 season and they make it to the playoff.
I’m not drunk. At least I don’t think I am.
I’m with Mike Bryan – I don’t actually think the RBs are going to be a major weakness. Yes, there’s little proven production, and yes, the best athletes there are either unavailable for a third of the season or fresh off a position switch. But if the OL plays well and Wimbush can fall out of a boat and hit the water, this set of backs should be good enough to be effective.
I think we could see something like 2012 with a somewhat less conservative offense. I’m not calling 12-0, mind you, rather that I expect a lot of stylistic similarities between 2012 and 2018.
2012 had a returning 1,000 yard rusher, a returning 38 catch RB, and the 3rd RB was the fastest player on the team (and averaged 7.1 YPC).
2018 has less than 600 TOTAL returning RB rushing/receiving yardage (after rushing behind perhaps the greatest LT/LG run blocking combo in ND history). 1 of those RBs is likely suspended for the first 4 games. The remaining RBs are converted from other positions and true freshmen (which you acknowledged). I wish I had your optimism for the position!
Conventional wisdom holds that running back is the easiest position for a true freshman to make an immediate impact, followed by cornerback, because it’s relatively plug and play. That’s what’s holding down my concern. For example:
– George Atkinson had 9 career carries coming into 2012, all against academies in 2011.
– CJ Prosise had 10 career carries coming into 2015, and was on his second position switch.
– Tarean Folston ran for 470 yards (5.34 ypc) as a true freshman in 2013.
– Josh Adams ran for 838 yards (7.22 ypc) as a true freshman in 2015.
– Deon McIntosh came out of nowhere to run for 368 yards (5.66 ypc) and 5 TDs last year.
Of course I’d rather have an Adrian Peterson or a senior Theo Riddick back there, but if the OL play is good enough to open the holes and Wimbush/Book can pass well enough to keep defenses honest, I think one of or some combination of the guys we have will be good enough to churn out yards. Freshman Adams and McIntosh are perfect examples – the 2015 offense was super-talented aside from Adams, and the 2017 OL was the best in the country.
* benches freshman who would run for 1,000 yards because he can’t pass block *
And who may have led to 1000 yards in sacks, fumbles, and getting one or more QBs killed.😏
Seriously, if ND can’t pass, it kills the running game (see, eg, Miami). It can’t pass if it’s RBs can’t block. Hopefully, he will be better at that this season.
I’m not saying you shouldn’t limit a kid who can’t pass block.
I am commenting, however, that we seem to recruit a lot of talented backs who have problems seeing the field for the express reason of “they can’t pass block.” Dexter is hardly the first back we’ve heard that excuse about. At some point, one must ask why A. we don’t recruit kids who can pass block and B. if they can’t coming in, why aren’t we teaching them enough pass blocking to get on the field? Granted we focus on ND, but I cannot remember the last time I heard “well, the kid’s got talent and man can he run, but he’s not seeing the field because he can’t pass block” at another school. RB is one of the easiest positions to come in and contribute as a freshman is something we hear the talking head types say a lot–but apparently, ND’s pass blocking schemes are much harder to learn than literally anywhere else.
Hey, I just posted the same thing about 2012 before reading your comment. I think that’s what we should expect. Regarding Mikey’s comments, I think this will be a match in terms of game-planning…not necessarily results. Although I do suspect that the defense might be as good as 2012’s.
I would’ve liked an Other for Team leader in receptions. I’m gambling big that Kevin Austin starts blowing everyone else away by the Stanford game.
Interesting. I considered even Mack and Kmet to be longshots – Austin never even entered my mind. He’ll play meaningful snaps for sure this year, and probably a good number of them, but I don’t know about overtaking the upperclassmen. If he does, that’s a very good sign.
Also, auto-rec for an awesome handle.
I’ve never quite been on board with Boykin or Claypool breaking out. And if there’s an opening in the Alpha spot, I’d like to see Austin have the audacity to reach for it. An maybe he gets it, but yeah, more likely that he’d have a solid year for a freshman and that’s it.
From what I’ve read I think Austin has the alpha mentality, and he’ll definitely get a shot. It’s just so much to ask of a true, non-early-enrollee freshman to get the playbook down and all that stuff. Physically, he looks like a junior. That’s not a problem. Mentally, maybe he’ll grab it immediately but who knows.
Floyd, btw, had 48 catches for 719 yards and 7 TDs as a freshman – exceptional production for his age, but sadly also all numbers that would’ve led the team last season (33/515 by ESB, 5 TDs by Stepherson).
As long as we’re making predictions, I’m calling Claypool/Austin as one of the most undefendable duos in the country in 2019. Very few teams will have 2 corners who will be able to match up with them. I just think it’s going to take Austin a year to get the normal freshmen things taken care of (route running, reading defenses, handling physical coverage, etc.).
You’re assuming Claypool will be back next season. If he has a monster year I think he could jump. 6-4/235/4.5 guys don’t come around too often.
If Claypool has a good enough year to jump, I’ll be ecstatic and wish him well, because it means Wimbush found a way to get him the ball. He’s got great size, but generally only QBs get the massive benefit of the doubt when they’re physical freaks with mediocre college stats (looking at you, Josh Allen).
I apparently must have accidentally fast forwarded and/or skipped every podcast/article that talked about Kevin Austin during the recruiting cycle and spring (don’t know if he was early enroll or not). All the WR freshman hype I’ve heard until like this week was Braden Lenzy vs. Lawrence Keys, who’s going to be better. Then I started hearing and seeing people talk about Kevin Austin and I had to doublecheck I was hearing it right.
None of the receivers were early enrollees. Lenzy is faster than anyone we have now and Keys is possibly more agile, but both showed up really skinny and probably aren’t realistic contributors this season. I think both are 170-175.
Austin has been drawing Baby Floyd comparisons for the past year. He’s at a different level physically than the other guys, which is why he’ll probably get on the field much sooner.
Micah Jones enrolled early. But I haven’t heard much, if anything, about him, unfortunately. But he’s another big guy, and he was a four-star. Hopefully he catches up to the other four and can make an impact some time.
Damn, good catch, you’re absolutely right. I literally don’t think about him when I think about the freshman receivers – it’s Austin, Lenzy, Keys, and now Wilkins mentally for me. Jones has some potential as a red zone target but probably needs a couple of years to get ready. Reminds me some of Boykin, actually, but I think Boykin was more athletic coming out.
Speaking of preseason polls, but not this preseason poll, is there a way to bet that MSU finishes the season lower in the AP poll than they start because their last two recruiting classes have each been outside the top 30. Granted they play a garbage schedule this year, but it won’t be enough to save them.
Yeah, I was a little puzzled by the MSU love. Can’t imagine they’ll stay there, but then again, if they split home games with OSU and Michigan, and steal one from PSU on the road… They have six games that either are or are really close to gimmes – Utah State, ASU, Indiana, CMU, Maryland, and Rutgers. Even if they split the remaining six – OSU, Michigan, PSU, Northwestern, Purdue, and Nebraska – that translates to 9-3 which is probably a top 15-ish ranking.
So yeah, schedule, probably.
It’s a pet peeve of mine that preseason rankers rank based on projected W-L (i.e. schedule), rather than who they think is the better team. And then everyone else takes these rankings and uses them to define good/bad wins/losses which is just further idiocy. (If team #20 is actually better than #12, but ranked 20 because of a hard schedule… then shouldn’t a win against #20 be worth more than against #12?!)
coughWISCONSINcough
I see them at 8.5 for over/under on wins for the season in most of the Vegas places, so I guess an under bet there gets you to what you’re looking for. But like Brendan mentions, schedule-wise you can paint a picture of them getting to 9 wins unless something goes off the rails.
I thought the Offensive MVP question was interesting given that it was only QBs and Receivers. If any receiver puts up crazy good numbers, I only see it happening if a QB is playing very well, which would mean likely the QB would actually be the MVP. And if the QB play is poor, no receiver will be able to do enough to be MVP. So… as I looked at the question, it could only be “Wimbush,” “Book” or “Other.”
With the current RB field, I doubt anyone will emerge and beat everyone else out quickly enough to stand alone for consideration. So, in my mind anyway, they’re all out. Someone at OL or TE could be very good, but their contributions are much harder to quantify, assuming their name doesn’t rhyme with Fenton Belson.
More specifically to your point, I think it’s very possible that a receiver – say, Claypool – could be an absolute monster while Wimbush (or Book, if you prefer) plays well enough. There’s a large middle ground between “very well” and “poor” – I think the likely QB performance, from whoever, is more likely to be in there.
I am inclined to agree with Scarponi the WRs are totally dependent on Wimbush/Book. The only way a WR wins is (i) if Wimbush and Book split time and both are mediocre and (ii) there is no running game. If that is the case, the offensive MVP is likely to be Yoon. If (i) happens but there is a running game, perhaps the OL as a unit would be MVP.
I voted for Armstrong for MVP. To get to MVP, Wimbush will have to hit swing passes, but I am going off of the coaches praise.
Apparently more people think we are more likely to go to the playoff than going 8-4 or 7-5 which is… optimistic.
A game in either direction of 9-3 seems most likely…But if there’s going to be a swing away from that bell curve it’s a lot more fun to imagine 11-1 than 7-5.
It seems like the comments are pretty well in agreement that 9-3 is the middle of the bell curve, but the voters have very much placed the mid-point at 10-2. Returning basically 16 starters (plus Yoon) coming off a 10 win season it seems to me that there are more reasons to be optimistic.
Plus Team Brendan has more fun than Team Eric (which should have been a poll question).
Yes, everyone on Team Brendan receives cupcakes, a puppy and a customary smiley face certificate and we all have special, elaborate handshakes for each other like baseball players in the dugout after a home run. It’s really the only way to be.
Team Eric gets to run up-downs! And stadium stairs! And ladder drills until we puke!
(He’s still no DJ Durkin though)
Whoa, whoa, whoa.
I like to think I serve a funky looking steak that ultimately tastes okay and provides necessary protein, a stunning looking cat that won’t let you touch it, a Russian novel recommendation, and a firm handshake.
Can I do the up-downs instead of read the Russian novel?
I completely agree that 9-3 is the most likely result. Then 10-2 may be marginally more likely than 8-4, but 11-1 is no more likely than 7-5, nor is 12-0 more likely than 6-6 or worse. But, in any case, 10-2 very very likely isn’t getting us in the playoff either. I’d give us a 5-10% of making the playoff, and a ~30-40% chance of going 8-4 or worse. In any case, the latter seems orders of magnitude more likely than making the playoff. But hope springs eternal, I suppose.
I wouldn’t agree that 11-1 and 7-5 have equal probability. I think neither is overly likely, even though I noted that I picked 11-1; I just like to gamble big. From a probability standpoint, I think 9-3 is clearly the most likely outcome, but I don’t think it’s a smooth bell curve from there.
I think the (potential) quality of the defense significantly raises the floor for the season. I actually think we’d have to try a little to get to 8-4, and a lot to get to 7-5. Conversely, if we can get past Michigan I think an 11-1 season is very much in play – in fact, there’s a pretty decent chance we’d be favored in the rest of our games barring some spectacular emergence by someone. Obviously being favored doesn’t always translate to winning, but it’s better than the alternative.
>I wouldn’t agree that 11-1 and 7-5 have equal probability. I think neither is overly likely, even though I noted that I picked 11-1; I just like to gamble big.
This confused me to no end. You predict 11-1, but you don’t think it’s overly likely? I…am I missing something in the definition of the word “predict” here?
Let’s see what Merriam-Webster has to say:
“transitive verb
: to declare or indicate in advance; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason”
Does that not imply that what you predict is what you believe is likely to happen? You might bet something different, if you want to “gamble big” because generally lower odds come with a greater return. But just because I might bet on 11-1 because I want a bigger payout doesn’t mean I’m predicting it.
Well, if we’re getting all into semantics, I didn’t say I “predicted” 11-1, I said I “picked” 11-1. But let’s dig into your definition anyway, because personally the distinction between “predicted” and “picked” is so fuzzy that it doesn’t really matter.
A large group of factors go into determining the team’s record. Some are relatively known, some are relatively uncertain, some are completely unknown, and some are decided by dumb luck. An analysis of these factors by most people would, I would imagine, lead to a consensus of 9-3 as the most probable record. However, after doing my own personal analysis of these factors and coming to my own conclusion, I believe they’ll fall out in such a way that they’ll calculate out to an 11-1 record.
In other words, I’m declaring in advance on the basis of my observation and experience that I believe this particular outcome, 11-1, is the one that will come to fruition.
So. That explanation is more consistent with Mssrs. Merriam and Webster, but it’s not quite as snappy for a blog comment. I hope you’ll indulge my condensation.
You should really get a towel for all that condensation 🙂
The title of the article is “2018 Preseason Prediction Poll Time!”–you yourself named the article, I presume, as you wrote it. So each of these questions is, presumably, a prediction. In this response, you clearly lay out that, given an analysis of factors, you “predict” 11-1. No issues there.
The confusion is that above you say that you think 11-1 is not “overly likely.” Whereas here you believe that 11-1 “will come to fruition.” The only way I can reconcile that is to assume that you believe an unlikely outcome will result DESPITE it being unlikely. Which hurts my brain, but a lot of things do that these days.
Dude, you’re putting too much effort into this. I don’t put that much effort into choosing my wording, at least.
We really need football to get here already.
…I think you’re reading more seriousness into it than I intend. Your “condensation” line had me laughing. Mea culpa. Please note my smiley face? Please??
In my defense, I’m a stressed out PhD student. Semantic arguments on the internet are all I have these days.
Haha, no worries man. Plus, Michigan sucks. QED.
On that, there can be no argument.
If somebody gave me even odds and said “7-5 or 11-1”, I *guess* I’d maybe take 11-1, but I’d have to think about it for a while. If that person gave me better odds for one over the other, I’d definitely take the one with better odds. I have a very hard time imagining this team winning 11 given all the questions with the offense (two new starting tackles, no apparent elite skill talent at least among upperclassmen, short passes in the dirt, etc.).
But that’s because you’re focused on ND and it’s warts. EVERY college team has weak spots. I think what Brendan is saying is that after looking at ND’s weak spots, he doesn’t see them as that bad, particularly when compared to other teams.
I agree with him that RB is a spot where you don’t have to be great to be productive. 1/2 of last year’s Right Tackle is back and the other is now playing guard, where some people think is a better position for him. All reports last year were that Eichenberg was in the mix to start at R tackle last year and has really stepped up his game this year. I am really not too worried about the line. It won’t be last year, but it will be very good.
So, for me, it all comes down to QB play. Wimbush’s problems from last year were all fixable. IF they are fixed, we have a very good offense to go along with a top notch defense. 11-1 is the floor!! Pass the Koolaid!
FWIW, FPI says that 10-2 is the most likely outcome, followed by 11-1 and then 9-3. It thinks ND is roughly three times more likely to go 12-0 than 7-5.
That certainly seems very off to me, but I hope not.
I guess this is what separates me from many of you. It might be more fun to imagine 11-1, but I can’t. Part of it is my former career, where projecting most likely and worst case scenarios was my job–NEVER be optimistic. Part of it is that it’s easier to handle the 7-5 if I’ve predicted that’s what we’ll be, but if I’m set on 11-1 then 7-5 seems like the end of the world. I’d always rather expect the worst and be thrilled when it doesn’t happen.
Hello, fellow lawyer?
Intelligence analysis.
You went to the dictionary in a comment above, so you are an honorary(?) lawyer.
Don’t you put that evil on me.
I’m now an “academic,” which is its own brand of evil.
“Don’t you put that evil on me.”
Go easy on the lawyers thing. Without lawyers, there would be no society, beyond hunter/gatherer groups (so says the retired attorney).
I didn’t say it wasn’t a necessary evil.
Just not my particular brand.
Updated S&P+. ND fell from 7 to 9 in the overall rankings – https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/24/17768218/2018-college-football-rankings-projections-strength-schedule. I presume that is at least partially a result of losing Watkins and Hayes, which impacts the returning production input.
Big news from our opponents is VaTech dropped from 21 to 34 because of losing two returning starters from their secondary since the spring. Also, we have opponents #10 (UM), 16 (USC), 19 (FSU), and 20 (Stanford). Four other more top-50 opponents (VaTech, NW, Wake, Pitt just barely at #50).
I think 2018 may be a weird replay of 2012 in terms of game planning (Hopefully results, too!).
In 2012 BK had a stout defense and a gifted, yet unpredictable QB. Result: A very boring offense and a clear reliance on the defense to win games.
2018 seems very similar to me.
According to yesterday’s press conference, it sounds like there will be more QB by committee than we had hoped for, so it could end up looking more similar to 2012 than anything else.
I wouldn’t read it that way, and neither would some very reputable paysite mods that I’ve seen. I would read it as Wimbush is the clear #1, they’re going to be less afraid to run him this year because they know Book can play, and if he’s ineffective they know Book can take over. It’s not another Kizer/Zaire situation.
Yeah, it sounded to me like Kelly was basically saying (without coming out and directly saying it) that he’s going to let Wimbush run free forever, because if he gets his bell rung and has to come out, Book isn’t a major step down. And also if the team needs to pass to move down field in an end-of-the-half situation, Book could get the call.
Especially since he obliquely referenced how badly he handled said Kizer/Zaire situation, without actually using those words.
That’s exactly how I took his remark. The BK haters seem to like to insist that he never acknowledges fault, which is not true, IMO, but he does often soften the admission. One exception was Miami last year where he has said straight up he wishes he had a do-over because he did the game prep badly. In his defense the Zaire-Kizer situation was an extremely tough one in terms of loyalty and the emotions associated with that.