See? I told you Alabama wasn’t going to be in the playoff… The board cleared up considerably this week, and with only a handful of true contenders left we can now get a lot more serious about projecting playoff scenarios. Without the Tide. Heh.

The “538 conference championship win probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s predictions over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.

The Board

#1 Ohio State

This week: vs. #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten championship game)

Resume wins to date: vs. #20 Cincinnati, vs. #8 Wisconsin, vs. #10 Penn State, at #14 Michigan

538 conference championship win probability: 76%

Ohio State thoroughly dominated Michigan in Ann Arbor – wonder what that feels like – and will play in the Big Ten title game for the fifth time in the last seven years. They get a neutral-site rematch with Wisconsin, who they pummeled mercilessly in Columbus back in October. There’s no reason to expect this game to be any different from that one. LSU gets a higher-quality opponent in their conference title game, but even so, expect the Buckeyes to hold onto the #1 spot heading into the playoff.

#2 LSU

This week: vs. #4 Georgia (SEC championship game)

Resume wins to date: vs. #9 Florida, vs. #11 Auburn, #12 Alabama

538 conference championship win probability: 57%

LSU obliterated Texas A&M 50-7, despite Heisman favorite Joe Burrow having an “off” day (23/33 for 352 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs, which incredibly is in the lower third of single-game passer ratings he’s produced this season). Auburn, ranked 4th in SP+ defense, is the only opponent to hold them under 36 points this season. Georgia, who they’ll face in the SEC championship game in Atlanta, ranks 1st in SP+ defense. Intriguing.

#3 Clemson

This week: vs. #23 Virginia (ACC championship game)

Resume wins to date: None

538 conference championship win probability: 91%

Dabo Swinney went off on a bizarre postgame rant about how the playoff committee doesn’t want Clemson in the playoff. The same committee that has them ranked #3 and has placed them in the previous four playoffs. So, uh, yeah. Maybe he’s just reaching for something, anything, to motivate a team that has been truly challenged once all season and won’t face much of an obstacle in the ACC championship game either. With apologies to Virginia, who is a nice story this year. They’re on cruise control into the playoff, no matter how much Dabo splutters.

#4 Georgia

This week: vs. #2 LSU (SEC championship game)

Resume wins to date: vs. #15 Notre Dame, vs. #9 Florida (neutral site), at #11 Auburn

The one loss: at South Carolina

538 conference championship win probability: 43%

Georgia’s loss to South Carolina was at the heart of Swinney’s rant. He took issue with chatter from some corners – not from the committee as far as I know – that Georgia has been more tested and should be ahead of them, given that Georgia lost to a team Clemson destroyed. Georgia has indeed been more tested but has also looked far less dominant than Clemson has, which, you know, is why Clemson is ranked ahead of them. I do think Georgia will jump them if they beat LSU, which would make for some great TV headed into the playoff. This game sets up as strength on strength and weakness on weakness – one of the top offenses against arguably the top defense, and a decent defense against a decent offense. LSU will be favored but I could see it going either way.

#5 Utah

This week: vs. #13 Oregon (Pac 12 championship game)

Resume wins to date: None

The one loss: at #22 USC

538 conference championship win probability: 55%

Utah is in solid shape here, but I’d be very wary of Oklahoma if I was them – they have arguably a better resume now (if we don’t look at margin of victory) and will have a chance to add a better win than the Utes can. Nonetheless, sitting at the first spot out of the playoff now, they’re poised to possibly spring past the SEC runner-up for the final playoff spot.

#6 Oklahoma

This week: vs. #7 Baylor (Big 12 championship game)

Resume wins to date: at #7 Baylor, at #25 Oklahoma State

The one loss: at Kansas State

538 conference championship win probability: 64%

The Sooners are still looking up at Utah for that catbird’s seat, but I have a hunch they’ll jump the Utes if both teams win this week. Oklahoma will have a better top win (probably) and more quality wins, while Oregon will only have a marginally better loss. So they’re likely still well in control of their own destiny.

#7 Baylor

This week: vs. #6 Oklahoma (Big 12 championship game)

Resume wins to date: at #25 Oklahoma State

The one loss: vs. #6 Oklahoma

538 conference championship win probability: 36%

I think Baylor still has a very real shot at the playoff. If they beat Oklahoma and LSU beats Georgia, they’re going to have a very attractive resume for that fourth spot – arguably more attractive than Utah, who will have fewer quality wins and a considerably lower quality loss. They would then get utterly destroyed by Ohio State, but hey, can’t win if you don’t play.

Off the Board

#12 Alabama fell at Auburn, which means they’ll finish a regular season with two losses for the first time since 2010 (!) and that they don’t have a win over a ranked team this year. Good times.

#18 Minnesota crashed with a thud, as they got pounded at home by #12 Wisconsin and lost their shot at the Big Ten title game. PJ Fleck, to his credit, remained upbeat in his postgame press conference, rightly noting that the Gophers shouldn’t hang their heads about the full season because of what happened in the last game.

Scenario Fun

Now that we’re down to just seven contenders, we can have a little fun with the different ways the endgame can go.

  1. Everything goes to chalk: Boooooooooring. In this scenario the favorites win everything. Our guess would be that Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson all stay where they are, and Oklahoma vaults into the fourth spot. I’m not entirely sure how the committee would set up the semifinal games – the Fiesta and Peach can each host either the 1/4 or 2/3 game, depending basically on what the committee thinks would be most advantageous to the higher seed. I’m guessing though that it would be Ohio State and Oklahoma in the Peach and LSU and Clemson in the Fiesta, mostly because it would be extremely easy for Clemson fans to get to Atlanta.
  2. Only an SEC upset: Here, Georgia beats LSU in the SEC title game but everything else goes as expected. Ohio State stays #1, Clemson slides up to #2, Georgia goes to #3, and I think LSU falls only to #4, keeping the Big 12 and Pac 12 champs out of the playoff. Even with the conference championship point working against them, LSU’s resume is much better than Oklahoma or Baylor’s. Maybe if Georgia wins big LSU will be left out, but Georgia winning big seems fairly unlikely. In this scenario, Ohio State and LSU would probably land in the Peach and Clemson and Georgia in the Fiesta.
  3. Only a Big Ten upset: Now, if we want to talk about unlikely things… I can’t see Wisconsin even coming close to Ohio State, let alone upsetting them, but if they do it could get interesting. LSU would reclaim #1 and Clemson would slide up to #2. No question on those. Would Ohio State fall below Oklahoma? I don’t see any way they’d fall below Oklahoma and Utah, so I think they’d still be in the playoff. Like LSU, their overall resume is just too good. But whether they’d get matched up with LSU or Clemson, harder call. I think they’d stay at #3, putting LSU and Oklahoma in the Peach and Clemson and Ohio State in the Fiesta.
  4. Only a Big 12 upset: I think if Baylor beats Oklahoma and all the other favorites win, they’ll get that final playoff spot. Yes, even jumping over a Utah team that beats Oregon – that will be Utah’s only quality win, while Baylor will have a better quality win, a better loss, and more quality wins.
  5. Only an ACC upset: So if Virginia upsets Clemson, we… BWA HA HA HA HA HA. Anyway…
  6. Only a Pac 12 upset: Probably no real effect beyond locking the Pac 12 out of the playoff.
  7. More than one but not all upsets: Lots of scenarios possible here, but you have to figure that the pecking order of eventual one-loss resumes would be Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, Baylor, Utah, Clemson.
  8. Maximum chaos: If, somehow, every underdog loses… Man, stuff would get wacky. In that scenario, Georgia would be the new #1 for sure; after that it’s anyone’s guess. Gun to my head, I’d say LSU would be #2, Baylor #3, Ohio State #4, and who knows after that. I could be talked into Ohio State and Baylor flipping too. Georgia would face one in the Peach and LSU would get the other in the Fiesta.