Does LSU’s resounding win over Alabama truly signal the end of a dynasty, as ESPN’s Ivan Maisel wrote? That feels a little hyperbolic for a Tide team that’s still averaging almost a 30 point margin per game this year, but it gives some sense of the impact LSU’s win had on the college football landscape. [Psst… Alabama has now given up 162 points in its last four games against top ten teams.] [And yes, that’s from the 2018 SEC Championship game forward and they shut out #6 LSU midseason last year. Don’t mess with my narrative.] The Baton Rouge Tigers clearly have the strongest resume in the country to this point, and we’re starting to get some clarity on the rest of the board too.

Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and now include potential conference championship game participation. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s predictions over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.

Undefeated Teams

An undefeated Power 5 team will always control its own destiny. All these teams are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today.

#1 LSU

This week: at Ole Miss

Resume wins to date: at #19 Texas, vs. #11 Florida, vs. #12 Auburn, #5 Alabama

Possible resume wins: vs. #4 Georgia (SEC title game)

538 table-running probability: 45%

A late cosmetic score by Alabama – which sounds crazy – made the score closer than the game was. LSU didn’t quite run away with it, but they were certainly in firm control for the entire game. And in Tuscaloosa, no less. They have three soft opponents left in Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M, and even if they somehow drop one of those they’re guaranteed to make it into the SEC title game. They’re as firmly in the driver’s seat for the playoff as a team can be.

#2 Ohio State

This week: at Rutgers

Resume wins to date: vs. #17 Cincinnati, vs. #14 Wisconsin

Possible resume wins: vs. #9 Penn State, at #15 Michigan, vs. #8 Minnesota (Big Ten title game)

538 table-running probability: 51%

The Buckeyes continued their obliteration tour of overmatched opponents by absolutely burying Maryland 73-14. With ten minutes gone in the first quarter, Ohio State scored, recovered a surprise onside kick, and scored again to make it 21-0 just before the end of the period. In a game in which they were favored by 42, they tried an onside kick in the first quarter. Why the apparent desire to run it up? Rumor has it that Maryland reported the “family friend loan” that resulted in star DE Chase Young’s four-game suspension. Karma can sometimes be quite cruel.

Hopefully Rutgers was smart enough to keep their mouth shut about anything they might know; otherwise we might see a re-enactment of Georgia Tech vs. Cumberland this week.

#3 Clemson

This week: at Wake Forest

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. Virginia (ACC title game)

538 table-running probability: 77%

Clemson smoked NC State, as expected, and will likely smoke Wake Forest this week before smoking South Carolina in Rivalry Week to close out the regular season. I sort of feel for them because they did schedule Texas A&M out of conference and nobody could predict the ACC would be s0 extraordinarily bad. But I sort of don’t feel for them because their other OOC games are FBS also-ran Charlotte and FCS Wofford. Unlike LSU they have no safety net but they’re likely to be 20+ point favorites in all their remaining games, including the conference title game.

#8 Minnesota

This week: at #20 Iowa

Resume wins to date: vs. #9 Penn State

Possible resume wins: at #20 Iowa, vs. #14 Wisconsin, vs. #2 Ohio State (Big Ten title game)

538 table-running probability: 5%

PJ Fleck rowed the damn boat for the biggest win of his coaching career last weekend, jumping all over and then holding off Penn State. Despite the big win and the relative rankings, they’re three-point underdogs to Iowa this week. Iowa is 0-3 against currently ranked teams. Quite the slap in the face for the Gophers. If Fleck can keep his kids focused and playing like they did last week I think they’ll cruise, even though it’s a road game. If they win, they’ll essentially guarantee their spot in the Big Ten title game – getting past Northwestern next week would then make it official.

#13 Baylor

This week: vs. #10 Oklahoma

Resume wins to date: at #24 Kansas State, at #22 Oklahoma State

Possible resume wins: vs. #10 Oklahoma, vs. #19 Texas, vs. #10 Oklahoma (Big 12 title game)

538 table-running probability: 10%

Baylor kept their playoff dreams alive by eking out a road win against TCU. So is the real Baylor the team that snuck past Rice, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and TCU? Or is it the team that hammered Kansas State and Oklahoma State? We’ll get a huge data point this week when they take on Oklahoma, quite probably for the first of two times.

Group of 5 Teams

One Loss Teams

These teams aren’t out of it but will need some breaks to fall their way. The good news for them is that every college football season contains a looooot of breaks.

#4 Georgia

This week: at #12 Auburn

Resume wins to date: vs. #16 Notre Dame, vs. #11 Florida (neutral site)

Possible resume wins: at #12 Auburn, vs. #1 LSU (SEC title game)

The one loss: at South Carolina

538 table-running probability: 20%

I believe Georgia is the only one-loss team that completely controls its destiny – you could make an argument for Oregon and Utah, but their situation is murkier. Georgia has two quality wins and, if they win out, will definitely be in. If they get past Auburn on the road this week they have two very winnable games against Texas A&M and Georgia Tech before heading to the SEC title game. They have a one-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida, so as long as they at least split between Auburn and A&M they’ll make it to Atlanta.

#5 Alabama

This week: at Mississippi State

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: at #12 Auburn

538 table-running probability: 53%

The one loss: vs. #1 LSU

Alabama suffered a huge blow with the loss to LSU because their schedule is just so week this year. They’ll get a chance for a marquee win in the Iron Bowl, but that’s going to be it. They’re just about frozen out of the SEC title game, as LSU would have to drop two games against three bad opponents to get the Tide back in. There are paths for them into the playoff, but they’ll need a lot of help. They’re in Starkville this week before “testing” themselves against Western Carolina, and will close out the regular season at Auburn.

#6 Oregon

This week: vs. Arizona

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #7 Utah (Pac 12 title game)

The one loss: vs. #12 Auburn (neutral site)

538 table-running probability: 45%

Oregon has a magic number of 1 to clinch the Pac 12 North, with Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon State left on the schedule. So you can pretty much write them into that slot in ink. They don’t have any quality wins but they do have a quality loss, and they’ll likely get a shot at a quality win in the Pac 12 title game (although they’re not guaranteed of it, as we’ll see below). Despite their positioning at #6, I think they’re in pretty good shape for the final playoff spot if they can win out – a one-loss Big 12 champ would likely get past them, and a one-loss SEC runner-up LSU probably would as well, but otherwise they’d probably get in.

# Utah

This week: vs. UCLA

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #6 Oregon (Pac 12 title game)

The one loss: at USC

538 table-running probability: %

Utah is in slightly worse shape than Oregon because of the nature of their respective losses, but ultimately I think they’d be in as well if they win out, the Big 12 champ finishes with two losses, and everything else goes to chalk. The intrigue with Utah centers more around the Pac 12 South race, which they haven’t remotely locked up yet; they’re 5-1 in conference while USC is 5-2 and UCLA is 4-2. USC holds the tiebreaker over them and UCLA, if they pull off the upset this week, will as well. If the Los Angelenes win all other games, that would mean that four-loss USC and five-loss UCLA would play each other in Rivalry Week for a berth in the Pac 12 title game. That’s a nightmare scenario for Oregon, who really needs Utah to come out of the division.

#10 Oklahoma

This week: at #13 Baylor

Resume wins to date: vs. #19 Texas (neutral site)

Possible resume wins: at #13 Baylor, at #22 Oklahoma State, vs. #13 Baylor (Big 12 title game)

The one loss: at #24 Kansas State

538 table-running probability: 29%

Oklahoma has a chance to jump right back into the thick of the playoff race this week with a marquee road game against Baylor. That’s the good news. The bad news is that I’m not sure how much faith anyone should have in them right now given their last two games. Kansas State jumped all over them and then held them off, but hey, road games can be weird, right? They followed that up by just barely escaping Iowa State at home, on the strength of a questionable non-PI call on the Cyclones’ go-ahead two point conversion attempt. In fact, they’ve played three decent teams – those two and Texas – and are 2-1 with a net margin of +1 in those games. So how good are they, really? This week should go at least some of the way towards answering that question. They have TCU and Bedlam in Stillwater to close out the regular season.

Off the Board

NR Wake Forest went into Blacksburg 7-1 and with big dreams in hand. They fought gamely for a while, then watched the Hokies go on a 24-0 run to turn a close game into a laugher. They weren’t going to beat Clemson anyway absent a miracle, but with a 3-2 conference record to Clemson’s 7-0 any hope of winning their division is dead. Thanks for playing, Deacs.