We got one moderate upset (is it really an upset if the winning, lower-ranked team was favored?) and were sooooo close to a big one, but you know what they say about being close – it only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Most of this week went very boringly to chalk and most of the upcoming games probably will too, but hey, you never know. All hail Lord Chaos!
Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and now include potential conference championship game participation. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s predictions over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.
Undefeated Teams
An undefeated Power 5 team will always control its own destiny. All these teams are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today.
#1 LSU
This week: vs. Arkansas
Resume wins to date: vs. #11 Florida, vs. #15 Auburn, #5 Alabama
Possible resume wins: vs. #4 Georgia (SEC title game)
538 table-running probability: 48%
LSU jumped all over Ole Miss in the first half last week and then swatted away a couple of attempts to make it interesting in the second half. They’re favored by 44 (not a typo) against Arkansas this week and can clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win. I’m guessing they’ll be favored by 20+ against Texas A&M the next week to close out the regular season, so they’re on cruise control heading into the SEC title game, just as Joe Burrow is in the Heisman race. They’re in such good shape for the playoff that I think they’ll get in even if they lose the SEC title game – I think a one-loss LSU with wins over top 10 Alabama and Florida, top 15 Auburn, and semi-respectable OOC opponent Texas will have a stronger resume than a one-loss Big 12 or Pac 12 champ.
#2 Ohio State
This week: vs. #8 Penn State
Resume wins to date: vs. #19 Cincinnati, vs. #12 Wisconsin
Possible resume wins: vs. #8 Penn State, at #13 Michigan, vs. #10 Minnesota/#12 Wisconsin (Big Ten title game)
538 table-running probability: 48%
Perhaps the biggest news of the week is that Ohio State gave up 21 points to Rutgers, a mark the Scarlet Knights have exceeded only once this season (vs. Liberty). Worry not though, intrepid travelers, for Chase Young returns from his honesty-shortened two-game suspension just in time to bolster the defense against Penn State. What a coincidence, eh? The Buckeyes have been so dominant that they’re favored by 18 over a top ten team. They’ll head to Michigan the next week and will probably be favored by three scores again in that game.
#3 Clemson
This week: Off
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. Virginia/Virginia Tech/Pitt (ACC title game)
538 table-running probability: 83%
Clemson blasted Wake Forest 52-3 and seems to be rounding into a fully operational Death Star again. They get a much-needed (LOL) rest this week before closing out the regular season with their OOC rivalry game against 4-7 South Carolina. They’re going to face at best a three-loss team and quite possibly a four-loss team in the ACC title game, where they’ll probably be 30+ point favorites. Yawn.
One Loss Teams
These teams aren’t out of it but (most) will need some breaks to fall their way. The time is getting short to get those breaks, though.
#4 Georgia
This week: vs. Texas A&M
Resume wins to date: vs. #16 Notre Dame, vs. #11 Florida (neutral site), at #15 Auburn
Possible resume wins: vs. #1 LSU (SEC title game)
The one loss: at South Carolina
538 table-running probability: 35%
The only one-loss team that fully controls their destiny. The Bulldogs added yet another quality win this week, this time on the road against Auburn; the Tigers made it interesting late and then Georgia’s defense just brutally stepped on their necks on their final two possessions, to the tune of 14 plays, 33 yards, and two turnovers on downs. They host an overmatched Texas A&M this week and will close out the regular season next week at an even more overmatched Georgia Tech. They’ve already clinched the SEC East no matter what happens with the Aggies.
#5 Alabama
This week: vs. Western Carolina
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #15 Auburn
538 table-running probability: 65%
The one loss: vs. #1 LSU
Losing to LSU at home in Week 11 was a big blow; what happened last weekend against Mississippi State was much, much bigger. With the Tide up 35-7 late in the second quarter, Tua Tagovailoa dislocated and fractured his hip – the same injury that ended Bo Jackson’s career. That doesn’t mean Tua’s career is over necessarily but it does mean his year is, and it also means Alabama’s hopes of sneaking into the playoff took a nosedive. Just a brutal injury for a good kid who, for all his talent, has had a little bit of trouble staying healthy. It won’t matter this week against yet another FCS opponent, of course, but winning at Auburn without Tua is a much different proposition. The Tide need LSU to lose to Arkansas and Texas A&M to sneak back into the SEC title game. They would arguably have a weaker resume than even a two-loss SEC runner-up Georgia, and would certainly have a weaker resume than the Pac 12 and Big 12 winners. Their playoff hopes are on life support.
#6 Oregon
This week: at Arizona State
Resume wins to date:Â at #21 USC
Possible resume wins: vs. #7 Utah (Pac 12 title game)
The one loss: vs. #15 Auburn (neutral site)
538 table-running probability: 45%
Oregon might just be good, folks. They’re in SP+’s top 20 in offense and defense – yes, defense! – after holding an offensively-competent Arizona team to just six points. They have arguably the best loss of any contender other than Alabama and they seem to be getting better as the year goes on. They might need a little help to make the playoff – like no Georgia upset in the SEC title game, which would almost assuredly put LSU in – but they’re in relatively good position. They long ago locked up the Pac 12 North division and will be in the conference title game no matter what happens in the next couple of weeks.
#8 Utah
This week: at Arizona
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #6 Oregon (Pac 12 title game)
The one loss: at #21 USC
538 table-running probability: 39%
That same Arizona team that got stomped by Oregon gets another chance to play spoiler this week. Which they probably won’t, but the interesting thing here is that the Pac 12 South is very much up in the air still – Utah likely needs to win out against Arizona and Colorado to take it. USC has just one game left, a winnable home matchup with UCLA, and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Utah if the Utes stub a toe in the next couple of weeks. With a squishier resume than Oregon it’s much easier to see Utah winning the conference and getting frozen out of the playoff, but they have a decent shot if there’s a little bit of mess elsewhere, particularly in the Big 12.
#8 Oklahoma
This week: vs. TCU
Resume wins to date:Â vs. #22 Iowa State, at #14 Baylor
Possible resume wins: at #21 Oklahoma State, vs. #14 Baylor (Big 12 title game)
The one loss:Â at Kansas State
538 table-running probability: 44%
Oklahoma was down 28-3 in the second quarter and 31-10 at halftime against Baylor. They stormed back with 24 unanswered in the second half and survived a last-second scare as Baylor was in Sooner territory with less than a minute left when they threw the game-clinching pick. Kudos for the grit and all, but… Loyal readers may remember that last week I pointed out Oklahoma had played three decent opponents – Texas, Kansas State, and Iowa State – and was 2-1 and +1 in scoring margin in those three games. Well, add Baylor to the list now, and the Sooners are 3-1 and +4 in scoring margin. They’re clearly a good team but it really feels like they’re living on borrowed time. TCU has plenty of their own problems and might not pose a threat in Norman this week, but Bedlam in Stillwater is a significant obstacle. And then they’ll probably get a rematch with Baylor in the Big 12 title game.
# Minnesota
This week: at Northwestern
Resume wins to date: vs. #8 Penn State
Possible resume wins: vs. #12 Wisconsin, vs. #2 Ohio State (Big Ten title game)
The one loss: at #17 Iowa
538 table-running probability: 7%
Fortune is a fickle mistress indeed… A week after the biggest win of his career, Fleck flubbed it at Iowa with some very questionable clock management and an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for running onto the field when one of his players was hit late. Iowa was favored by 3 in this game, by the way, which is why I pondered above if it was really an upset. The Gophers lost close but they still lost, and now are back on the outside looking in to the playoff picture. They do remain in control of the Big Ten West, so that’s something, but that visit from Wisconsin looms large. The winner will head to Indianapolis. They have a better chance than Baylor to climb back in based on who they have left to play.
#14 Baylor
This week: vs. Texas
Resume wins to date:Â vs. #22 Iowa State, at #21 Oklahoma State
Possible resume wins:Â vs. #8 Oklahoma (Big 12 title game)
The one loss: vs. #8 Oklahoma
538 table-running probability: 18%
Baylor, like Oklahoma, had been living on borrowed time recently. An impressive win over Oklahoma State was sandwiched by escapes over mediocre Texas Tech, West Virginia, and TCU teams. Turns out Oklahoma was too good for them to pull off another escape and now, like Minnesota, they’re in bad shape for the playoff. Even if they win out I can’t see them jumping the Pac 12 champ, who will also have just vanquished a top ten opponent. And that presupposes they can get past Texas at home this week and Kansas on the road the following week, which I wouldn’t write in ink just yet.
Off the Board
Technically nobody, but with where they sit now you could make a pretty convincing case that Baylor and Minnesota are dead. If either somehow pulls off the unlikely and ends up winning their conference, it feels like the result will not be to bump them into the playoff but to bump their conference out of it.
BTW – vis a vis the bowl scenario discussions here recently – I’m much more bearish on our chances of getting into the Cotton after tonight’s committee rankings came out. I expected Minnesota to drop farther and, while I do think there’s an argument for it, I’m a little surprised to see Auburn ahead of us with three losses. Doesn’t say great things about the committee’s opinion of ND.
I think the committee gave the double bird to Notre Dame last night. They vaporized a ranked team and got no credit for it.
Agreed, not that it matters too, too much. I’d rather them be sour on Notre Dame this year when there’s no playoff hunt anyways and maybe save being sweet for later on. Hopefully Navy bounces back against SMU this week that would be a good win for them and go to show even further ND’s destruction of Navy holds some value. Obviously though the NY6 ship has sailed though barring major carnage (which would be fun but I’m not really counting on FSU to beat UF).
ND deserves this ranking after not showing up at all at Michigan. Yes, they have beaten the teams they should have beaten, but they got destroyed by Michigan (who is not even a top 10 team)
I don’t disagree, but the rankings are defensible. To wit:
#10 Minnesota – 9-1, win over #8 Penn State, loss to #17 Iowa (close)
#11 Florida – 9-2, win over #15 Auburn, losses to #1 LSU (comfortably) and #4 Georgia (close)
#12 Wisconsin – 8-2, wins over #13 Michigan and #17 Iowa, losses to #2 Ohio State (blowout) and Illinois (close)
#13 Michigan – 8-2, wins over #16 ND and #17 Iowa, losses to #8 Penn State (close) and #12 Wisconsin (blowout)
#14 Baylor – 9-1, wins over #21 Oklahoma State and #22 Iowa State, loss to #9 Oklahoma (close)
#15 Auburn – 7-3, win over #6 Oregon, losses to #1 LSU (close), #4 Georgia (close), and #11 Florida (close-ish)
#16 Notre Dame – 8-2, win over #23 USC, losses to #4 Georgia (close) and #13 Michigan (blowout)
I don’t even think it’s unreasonable to put Auburn ahead of us, given the quality of that win over Oregon – the same Oregon team that obliterated our only ranked win. I would rank us ahead of them because of the loss count, but I don’t think it’s crazy that the committee flipped it. Every team above us either has a better best win, more good wins, or fewer losses, or some combination of the three.
That’s a good breakdown, and I think the key metrics regarding ND seem to be lack of quality wins and that blowout to a non-top 10 team. At least with Wisconsin, they got blown out by a likely playoff team.
Assuming all games go chalk the rest of the way, which is a 100% safe assumption (#collegefootball) – there’s a lot of losses out there still for teams ahead of ND. OSU can give 3 B1G teams ahead of ND an additional loss (Michigan, PSU & Minnesota). Minnesota itself could give Wisconsin a 3rd loss. Alabama would give Auburn a 4th loss, the Oregon/Utah loser might have a less impressive 2 loss schedule, and OU would hand Baylor its 2nd loss (though a 2-loss Baylor with both losses coming from OU still looks decent).
Obviously, lots of moving parts still, but there are still a lot of ranked/ranked games in the last 3-ish weeks to the season. Either way, I’d like to see ND on a 6 game win streak heading into 2020.
I disagree regarding Minnesota being dead. I think they more or less control their own destiny to the playoff, still. If they beat Wisconsin and Ohio State or Penn State (again) to win the Big Ten, they will have an unquestionably better resume than Alabama and, if the Big10CG was Ohio State, I’d say they unquestionably had a better resume than any potential Pac-12 or Big-12 champion (if it’s Penn State, then it’s debatable). FiveThirtyEight gives them a 73% chance of making it if they win out, but I think that’s understating it.
Of course, that almost certainly is not happening (so, I guess if that’s what you mean by “dead”, then we agree after all). I’m just saying they’re hardly out at this point.
Oh, I think Alabama is super dead. I chuckle at the persistent inclusion of them in the national discussion – they’re going to have one ranked win at most (if their backup QB can get them past Auburn on the road), and no conference title. Resumes I would put ahead of them, listed in what I think would be the committee’s descending order of quality:
– 13-0 SEC champ LSU (4 very high quality wins plus a good OOC road win)
– 13-0 Big Ten champ Ohio State (5 nearly-as-high-quality wins)
– 12-1 SEC champ Georgia (4 very high quality wins)
– 13-0 ACC champ Clemson (zero quality wins)
– 12-1 Big Ten champ Minnesota (three quality wins)
– 12-1 Big 12 champ Oklahoma (three quality wins)
– 12-1 Pac 12 champ Oregon (two quality wins, but could flip them with Oklahoma and I wouldn’t argue)
– 12-1 SEC runner-up LSU (3 high quality wins)
– 12-1 Big Ten runner-up Ohio State (4 quality wins)
– 12-1 Big 12 champ Baylor (3 quality wins)
– 12-1 Pac 12 champ Utah (1 quality win)
– maybe 11-2 Big Ten champ Wisconsin (4 quality wins)
Basically any one-loss conference champ would for sure be ahead of them, which is a bad spot to be in with two weeks left in the regular season. Chaos happens, but not *that* much chaos.
As to Minnesota, I agree with you now. I wrote the draft of this article before the rankings came out last night and should’ve re-written that section, as I really expected them to fall farther than they did. Getting from 10 to 4 in the next few weeks is far more plausible than getting from 13/14 to 4.