The Pac 12 is dangerously close to being eliminated after a momentous upset, and the Big 12 is alive thanks to a witches’ brew of good fortune and home cooking. It’s November, folks. Time to get weird… There were a bunch of stinker match-ups in the last couple of weeks, but with Rivalry Week upon us we’re going to get a much better slate this time around. I have a feeling that this could be a big week for movement on the big board.
Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and now include potential conference championship game participation. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s predictions over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.
Undefeated Teams
An undefeated Power 5 team will always control its own destiny. All these teams are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today.
#1 Ohio State
This week: at #13 Michigan
Resume wins to date: vs. #19 Cincinnati, vs. #12 Wisconsin, vs. #10 Penn State
Possible resume wins: at #13 Michigan, vs. #8 Minnesota/#12 Wisconsin (Big Ten title game)
538 table-running probability: 56%
Ohio State did not play well at all, and they beat a top ten team by 11 points. Yikes. LSU has a more top-heavy resume, but nobody in college football has been as dominant as the Buckeyes this year. They’ll look to reassert that dominance this week against Michigan in one of the week’s biggest games; the big question is whether their lackluster performance against Penn State was a result of looking ahead to this game or if there’s a late-season slide happening. I’m not sure I’ve ever wanted Ohio State to blow someone out as much as I do this week, which makes me feel dirty, but that’s what showers and offseasons are for.
#2 LSU
This week: vs. Texas A&M
Resume wins to date: vs. #11 Florida, vs. #15 Auburn, #5 Alabama
Possible resume wins: vs. #4 Georgia (SEC title game)
538 table-running probability: 47%
LSU hammered Arkansas and then Coach O drove a stake through the heart of the barely-quivering corpse in his post-game press conference:
There wasn’t going to be a celebration for beating Arkansas, they haven’t beaten anyone in a long time.
Damn, Ed. That’s cold… They host Texas A&M this week with almost nothing on the line – if they lose they’ll still go to the SEC title game, and if they win that they’ll still be in the playoff. The only thing that would change is their seeding.
#3 Clemson
This week: at South Carolina
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #24 Virginia/NR Virginia (ACC title game)
538 table-running probability: 81%
Clemson was off last weekend, which was slightly more riveting than their recent slate of opponents. Or their entire slate of opponents, really. They can only play who’s in front of them, granted, but who’s in front of them has been pretty bad. Whether they knock off a moribund South Carolina this week or not, they’ll face the winner of the Virginia/Virginia Tech game for the ACC title the following week. Either team will be 9-3 and probably just barely ranked headed into that game, which would be Clemson’s first shot at a quality win this season. Ironically, the impending immolation would also likely push that team out of the rankings.
One Loss Teams
These teams aren’t out of it but (most) will need some breaks to fall their way. The time is getting short to get those breaks, though.
#4 Georgia
This week: at Georgia Tech
Resume wins to date: vs. #16 Notre Dame, vs. #11 Florida (neutral site), at #15 Auburn
Possible resume wins: vs. #2 LSU (SEC title game)
The one loss: at South Carolina
538 table-running probability: 43%
Another woefully mismatched SEC-ACC “rivalry” game. Georgia, like LSU and Clemson, will in the conference title game no matter what. So perhaps there’s some small chance of a letdown performance here, but Georgia Tech is so bad that I kind of doubt it. Georgia controls its destiny despite the loss and will cruise into conference championship weekend.
#5 Alabama
This week: at #15 Auburn
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #15 Auburn
538 table-running probability: 63%
The one loss: vs. #2 LSU
Yada yada, beat Western Carolina, whatever. Alabama has a glimmer of playoff hope alive. They would need help from some conference championship upsets – I expect the Pac 12 and Big 12 champs to jump them if all goes to chalk – but they’re not dead, so expect them to come into the Iron Bowl fully focused. However, with Tua out, Auburn has a golden opportunity to give Alabama their second Tiger-sourced loss of the season, and third of the calendar year. War Damn Eagle, folks.
#6 Utah
This week: at Arizona
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #14 Oregon (Pac 12 title game)
The one loss: at #22 USC
538 table-running probability: 49%
Arizona got throttled for the second straight week, first by Oregon, and even more convincingly this past weekend by Utah. I thought the Ducks were the true contender out west, but Utah is the team that looks like it’s on the rise right now. In fact, they’re one of only four teams in the country to rank in the top ten in SP+ offense (10th) and defense (7th). The other three? Ohio State (5th/1st), Alabama (3rd/6th), and Clemson (6th/3rd). Pretty good company. The Utes’ regular season is done and they already know they’ll face Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. Cheeseburger time.
#7 Oklahoma
This week: at #21 Oklahoma State
Resume wins to date: vs. #23 Iowa State, at #9 Baylor
Possible resume wins: at #21 Oklahoma State, vs. #9 Baylor (Big 12 title game)
The one loss: at Kansas State
538 table-running probability: 47%
A week after staging a furious rally to get past Baylor, the Sooners futzed around with a bad TCU team; they couldn’t ice it until the refs gifted them one of the worst spots I’ve ever seen and then held it up on replay. They’ve now won their last three games by a total – TOTAL – of 8 points, have played to a single-score result in five of their last six games, and are 4-1 in those five games.
This week they have Bedlam. In Stillwater. I’m not telling you to put money on it or anything, but an Okie State win would be one of the least surprising results of the weekend.
#8 Minnesota
This week: vs. #12 Wisconsin
Resume wins to date: vs. #10 Penn State
Possible resume wins: vs. #12 Wisconsin, vs. #1 Ohio State (Big Ten title game)
The one loss: at #17 Iowa
538 table-running probability: 8%
Quite a fortnight for the Gophers; they Rowed The Boat™ right up the back of Penn State, fell to a so-so Iowa team, then waxed the Fighting Fitzgeralds, who were spunky and hard-working but in a non-endearingly anachronistic kind of way. They host Wisconsin this week, with the winner earning the privilege (?) of facing Ohio State in Indianapolis for the conference title. I was surprised by their victory over Penn State, unsurprised by their falter against Iowa, and impressed by their workmanlike dispatching of Northwestern. They’re a slight underdog at home this week, which feels appropriate for how they’ve been viewed all season. Should be a good one.
#9 Baylor
This week: at Kansas
Resume wins to date: vs. #23 Iowa State, at #21 Oklahoma State
Possible resume wins: vs. #7 Oklahoma (Big 12 title game)
The one loss: vs. #7 Oklahoma
538 table-running probability: 30%
Baylor sent the Texas fan base into an existential crisis this week (not sure how being 6-4 heading into the weekend didn’t already do that, but whatevs). They have an extremely uphill climb to make the playoff at this point given where they’re ranked and that they have one last chance at a quality win, but they’re not dead yet. Could Alabama lose to Auburn and Utah lose to Oregon and Georgia lose to LSU? Sure! I think that’s the scenario they’d need to get in. We’ve seen wackier things. They head to a maybe-resurgent-but-maybe-not Kansas this week before their Big 12 title game rematch (so dumb) with Oklahoma.
Off the Board
#14 Oregon suffered a catastrophic loss to unranked Arizona State. They’ll still win the Pac 12 North and get a chance to go to the Rose Bowl, but their playoff dreams are as dead as Notre Dame’s now.
Don’t be too hard on yourself, rooting for a Ryan day coached team is Infinitely more palatable than rooting for a Meyer or tressel team
“Alabama has a glimmer of playoff hope alive. They would need help from some conference championship upsets – I expect the Pac 12 and Big 12 champs to jump them if all goes to chalk ”
Really think the committee is moving a 12-1 Utah over an 11-1 Bama? I don’t. I guess maybe we’ll see. I’m expecting Oklahoma to lose again, they’ve been playing with fire and between turnovers and bad defense just feel ripe for a fall in the next two against decent competition.
Kind of feel like the only way Bama is out of playoffs is if UGA beats LSU and that way the SEC will send UGA+LSU to join Clemson and tOSU. Otherwise I get the sneaky suspicion this is 2017 all over again where Bama doesn’t really beat anyone good in the reg. season, doesn’t win division, but still gets in playoff.
I do think they’ll move Utah up, honestly. Alabama’s resume will be 11-1, SEC West runner-up, one quality win over #18-ish Auburn. Utah’s resume will be 12-1, Pac 12 champ, one quality win over #15-ish Oregon. If they put in Alabama as a non-division winner against a P5 conference champ with the same number of losses and a better top win, they’re going to get absolutely eviscerated in the court of national opinion as Defenders of Tuscaloosa. I don’t think they want that.
Plus, remember that 11-1 Alabama team would be getting in over *two* P5 champs. If Utah and Oklahoma win out, there’s just no way that Alabama is getting ahead of them. None. The Big 12 and Pac 12 would raise holy hell. I think they need each of three things to happen to get back in: LSU winning out, Utah losing, and Oklahoma losing. Those aren’t absurdly unlikely on their own, but to hit on all of them? 538 has that probability at 12.5%.
Perhaps so, but seemingly 2 of the Big10, Big12 and Pac12 raise hell every year, just about. The point you’re making stands that Alabama hopping over a 1-loss P5 champ wouldn’t quite parallel 2017 but I guess I’ll believe it when I see it that the committee isn’t going to reward them based on their seek “choosing the best teams” and disregarding actual resumes when convenient for them.
Alabama would IMO also need to beat Auburn convincingly. Remember, they are without Tua, so a lot of the domination displayed early in the year would have an * next to it. Not sure that the committee should think that way, but it could play a factor and hurt the whole “best teams” narrative. I mean does anyone really think that Alabama, without Tua, is one of the 4 best teams. That is a really tough argument to make, but with him it could easily be made.
Unfortunately yes. If I had to put money on theoretical h2h matchups (neutral site), even without Tua I put my money on Bama against all but 2 or 3 teams.
I get what you are saying, but it’s a much harder argument to make, especially knowing that they maybe barely beat Auburn without him, and even with him (injured, but still playing) lost to LSU at home.
What teams would you favor over them without Tua, just out of curiosity?
It would be nice to see Utah/Alabama as a 4/5 game to find out ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Other than that I do think you both make good points. Though Bama’s defense is young, hurt and not that great. Their whole calling card this year post-LSU loss as to why they belonged was Tua and 3 really beast WRs (and to a lesser extent the RBs). Without Tua no doubt that argument takes a huge hit.
It probably does matter a lot for perception if they win something like 35-10 or say 21-17 this weekend as to what the post-Tua strength of team looks like. (Or they could just lose and make it really easy, but when does Saban ever cooperate?)
LSU and tOSU. Clemson I’d have to think long and hard about. I think I’d take Mac Jones Alabama over anyone else. (Though who knows, maybe Auburn will prove me wrong.)
I do not understand how Florida, Oregon, and Auburn are ranked ahead of Notre Dame.
So I assume that many readers here have seen the Mike Heuerman articles out there this week, and it’s a nice wrap to the story that Notre Dame is honoring his scholarship even after the drug addiction problems and related academic suspension and helping him get his life back on track. There are also cases like David Adams who had to medically retire from football after his freshman season who continues to be on scholarship and is currently in school.
Related to just the 2019 season I’ve now heard from parents of both a player at Michigan and one at MSU who have had their scholarships pulled after injuries suffered during football related activities. The Michigan player was awarded the scholarship once on campus and the MSU player drank alcohol at a party, which allowed both scholarships to be pulled despite the supposedly “guaranteed” nature of athletic scholarships now.
Does anyone have insight into how much this happens at P5 schools and if it happens at Notre Dame? If ND actually does treat student athletes better how much does this work into recruiting pitches?