Aaaaaand… We’re back, folks! It’s been a loooong [checks calendar] eight months without college football. We’re maybe not better than ever after the schlock-fest that opened the season this past weekend. (Can we really consider what Florida and Miami did “football”? And how on earth did Hawaii go -4 on turnover margin and still beat Arizona?) But we most definitely are back, and that’s worth celebrating. The last we saw our plucky Irish lads, they took their 12-0 record into the national semifinal game, played gamely for about 20 minutes, Julian Love got hurt, and three months of work unraveled in ten minutes of game clock. That’s the bad news. Well, we lost some key guys, including Love, which is a little more bad news. Oh, and this is probably our toughest road schedule since… 1989, maybe? That year included trips to Ann Arbor, State College, and Coral Gables, with mixed results. This year includes trips to Athens, Ann Arbor, and Palo Alto, with considerable potential for mixed results.

Animal House Lets GIF by swerk
How’s that for a pep talk, fellas?

Before you jump of the ledge, though, consider this: There’s plenty of cause for optimism too. One of the top QBs in the country returns. Almost the entire offensive line returns, and the one new guy is probably a substantial upgrade athletically. The skill positions are loaded with athletes. The defense boasts arguably the best defensive end tandem and best safety tandem in the country, and there’s a freshman safety who’s so good he’s going to force his way on the field anyway. The top corner is coming off a season where people went after him and he gave up one score, on the final drive of the regular season, and will probably run around or under a 4.3 40 at the NFL combine next spring. By all accounts the roster is faster and more athletic top to bottom since the Vinny Cerrato days. Hope survives!

So, with all that said, let’s get into the predictions. I promise nobody here has his finger on the scale; in fact we banished nd-atl to the timeout room once again, just to be safe. Last we saw of him he was holding a crayon in his toes and writing “CLOUSEAU” on the wall over and over, which is kind of weird, but anyway.

Big Picture Stuff

What will Notre Dame’s 2018 regular season record be?

  • 12-0 – 4%
  • 11-1 – 29%
  • 10-2 – 50%
  • 9-3 – 16%
  • 8-4 – 1%
  • 7-5 or worse – Blutarski

In 2017, 28% of you picked 10-2 or better. Last year, it was 62%. This year, a whopping 83% of you picked a (likely) top-ten quality season as your predicted outcome. Wow. The bar has been raised, it would seem. Of course, that means the bar for what it would take to lose our collective [censored] has been lowered as well. Drama!

The staff is similarly bullish, for what it’s worth, with 90% of us choosing 10-2 or better and 35% calling 11-1 or 12-0.

furst GIF
Everybody liked Flounder, right? Right??

What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?

  • Challenging road slate – 30%
  • Inside linebackers – 26%
  • Run game consistency – 11%
  • Run game explosiveness – 10%
  • Interior defensive line – 8%
  • Passing game explosiveness – 5%
  • Whoever plays opposite Troy Pride – 4%
  • Offensive line play – 4%
  • Placekicking – 2%
  • Brian Kelly – 1%
  • Stopping the run – < 1%

Not surprisingly, the staff’s two main concerns – the road slate (30%) and the inside linebackers (20%) – mirrored yours. This is as tough a road schedule as the Irish have faced in a long time, and we have precious little clarity on the second level of the defense. Those are the kinds of things that make people worry. Interestingly, the staff was far more concerned about CB2 than you (which is what “whoever plays opposite Troy Pride” means – my apologies to anyone who thought it was the opposing WR), with 15% of staff votes to make it our third highest concern.

You provided only one write-in, stopping the run, but I’m willing to guess most of the people who voted for interior DL or inside LBs were of the same mind. The staff provided two write-ins – facing so many teams coming off a bye, and game snacks. I can’t see who put individual votes in, but I’m pretty sure “game snacks” came from a Rigney.

Finally, Kelly has indeed rehabbed his reputation over the last couple of seasons; in 2017 10% of you listed him as your main concern, and last year 3% of you did the same. Saints be praised.

booze hounds GIF
Talk of concern invites stress. The Irish deal with stress by… Well, you’ve been there. You know.

Superlatives

Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?

  • Ian Book – 77%
  • Chase Claypool – 15%
  • Offensive line – 4%
  • Chris Finke – 3%
  • Jafar Armstrong – 1%
  • Tony Jones, Kyren Williams – < 1%

So, interesting vote for Kyren Williams here. I won’t be dismissive of it because I thought the 3% who tabbed Ian Book last year were nuts, but I’ll just note that it’s interesting. Book dominated this year’s vote and rightfully so, as the Irish offensive fortunes will likely be determined at his hand to a significant extent. 85% of the staff chose Book and the other 15% chose Claypool. Sorry, other dudes.

Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?

  • Julian Okwara – 61%
  • Alohi Gilman – 24%
  • Khalid Kareem – 12%
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – 1%
  • Kyle Hamilton – 1%
  • Troy Pride, Jalen Elliott, Shaun Crawford – < 1%

A little less decisive than the last item, but Okwara still runs away with this one. And again the staff is of a similar mind, with 60% picking Swaggy J and 25% taking Gilman. And one vote for Jay Bramblett, which I’m pretty sure again is a Rigney. Those guys.

We discussed this briefly in the writers’ room, but it’s also very interesting to me that Owusu-Koramoah and Hamilton, two guys who haven’t seen a single snap of live action yet, garnered more votes than two highly-regarded entrenched starters and one star-crossed but gamebreaking vet. Like with Kyren Williams, I’m not going to say those are bad votes, it’s just interesting.

Which unit will provide the play of the year?

  • Defense – 48%
  • Offense – 48%
  • Special Teams – 3%

Balance any coach would be envious of. I lean towards the offense myself, as I expect some pyrotechnics, but who knows. It’s worth noting here that a few different perspectives bubbled up last year about how to answer this question. I meant it then and now in the sense of “most exciting play,” while some voters reasonably considered it in the sense of “most impactful play.” For example, one of our readers – I can’t remember who, my apologies – said at the end of the year that his choice for play of the year was Jalen Elliott’s fourth down PBU against Vandy to secure that game. Didn’t seem like much at the time, but in hindsight it was huge in preserving the 12-0 regular season. One thing that this vote brings to the forefront is that the units themselves are very balanced; I think the offense and defense have a chance to be equally excellent this year if just a few small things fall into place for each.

animal house wink GIF
Vegas loves the action here.

Who will lead the team in receptions?

  • Chase Claypool – 66%
  • Chris Finke – 31%
  • ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ – 3%

I really should’ve put the shruggy guy on the next question, because the odds of the team receptions leader being someone other than these two (assuming health) are close to nil. Claypool beat Finke by a single reception last year, but seems poised to assume a Boykin-plus role in the offense this year. Practice reports have specifically highlighted the chemistry that he and Book have developed on back-shoulder throws, and even some of the more phlegmatic Irish observers have noted a certain Floydian look to Claypool’s play. So my money’s on the Canuck.

The staff once again split similarly, with 55% choosing Claypool and 40% Finke.

Who will lead the team in touchdowns?

  • Claypool – 49%
  • Armstrong – 37%
  • Jones – 8%
  • Finke – 5%
  • Kmet, Book, Hamilton – < 1%

This is a tough call. In Chip Long’s two seasons at the helm of the Irish offense, a runner has rather decisively held this lead – Wimbush and Dexter were each +5 over the next guy, and in Wimbush’s case the next guy was a runner too. (Josh Adams, if you were wondering.) That would perhaps lead you to lean toward RB1, but there isn’t really an RB1 this year, and Claypool looks dominant. But Long likes to lean on a lead RB. So… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (See?? Totally screwed that one up.)

I voted for Armstrong but I can’t argue with Claypool here. The staff’s top four choices again mirrored yours, with no write-in on our side.

Who will have the third-most RB carries?

  • Kyren Williams – 56%
  • Jahmir Smith – 39%
  • C’Bo Flemister – 5%

You have to think that Armstrong and Jones will be the clear 1-2 guys in the backfield. Who is 1 and who is 2 will probably be fluid, but they seem to be heavy favorites to be the top two. Whither RB3 plaudits, then? A month ago I would’ve said Smith, but then he broke his hand and Williams came on strong to build on an impressive spring debut. Folks, we have a true battle on our hands.

If you haven’t kept up with practice reports, btw, perhaps one of the most fun notes is that we’ve run some plays with Armstrong, Jones, and Williams all on the field at the same time, with Armstrong and Williams moving around between the slot and the backfield.

The staff voted, boringly, the same here again, with 60% tabbing the frosh, 25% the soph, and 15% the All-Time All-Name Team member.

Who will have the second-most CB snaps?

  • Donte Vaughn – 45%
  • Shaun Crawford – 31%
  • Houston Griffith – 13%
  • Tariq Bracy – 11%

A little bit of fuzziness introduced here by Crawford’s appearance at safety in camp – note that I only intended the question to refer to snaps taken at CB. Stupid coaches and their creativity… Vaughn’s early setback with some kind of quad issue clouded things, but later in camp a pecking order seemed to emerge. If I had to lay money now, it would be on Vaughn as a CB2A to Bracy’s CB2B, with Griffith filling out the back end of the two deep outside. I think Crawford will get plenty of time, but mostly at FS2 and nickel. Maybe!

We had Vaughn in the lead with 45% too, but we finally diverged from you a bit here. The staff has far more faith in Bracy than you do, it would seem, as in our vote he tied with Crawford at 25%.

Which freshman will make the biggest immediate impact?

  • Kyle Hamilton – 95%
  • I haven’t been reading camp reports so I don’t know how awesome Hamilton is – 5%

Well, if we can take nothing else away from this exercise, it’s that at least 5% of you are honest. Kudos.

Seriously, though… According to various reports, Hamilton had 17 interceptions and a few forced fumbles in camp, including one of fifth-year senior captain Finke that would’ve been an in-stride scoop and score. Regardless of who they came off or how, that’s incredible. He’s all over the field all the time and will certainly play an important role this fall.

There have been rumors of a dime package with Hamilton and Elliott at safety and Gilman as a sort of roving MLB with Owusu-Koromoah at rover. Separately, there has also been discussion of a dime package with a DL of Okwara, Kareem, Ogundeji, and Hayes. I’m getting excited, folks.

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Still too reserved to accurately reflect my feelings.

Over/Under

4.5 wins in first 6 games (@ Louisville, New Mexico, @ Georgia, Virginia, Bowling Green, USC)

  • Readers: 92% over, 8% under
  • Staff: 95% over, 5% under

4.5 wins in final 6 games (@ Michigan, Virginia Tech, @ Duke, Navy, Boston College, @ Stanford)

  • Readers: 82% over, 18% under
  • Staff: 89% over, 11% under

Yes, I learned from setting this line at 5.0 last year. ARE YOU HAPPY NOW?!?!?!?

Anyway… Interesting that both you and we are marginally more confident on a front end that features Georgia and USC than a back end that features Michigan and Stanford. Certainly USC’s recent foibles plus that game being at home help lessen the fear factor, but I still thought the Georgia half would engender less confidence.

Mark it down now in pen, Sharpie, paint, whatever you want, because I’m not worried about it coming back to bite me in the posterior: We’re going to obliterate Stanford this year.

animal house parade GIF
The douchy Stanford band finally gets its comeuppance.

32 team sacks (Last season: 34)

  • Readers: 85% over, 15% under
  • Staff: 95% over, 5% under

75 tackles for loss (last season: 78)

  • Readers: 64% over, 36% under
  • Staff: 50% over, 50% under

10 interceptions gained (last season: 12)

  • Readers: 64% over, 36% under
  • Staff: 70% over, 30% under

I decided to group these disruption stats together because they more or less tell the same story. I used BK-era averages for the last two surveys, but it’s quite clear that those are silly for the Elko/Lea defense – this new, um, competent approach blew the previous Kelly-era averages out of the water in both seasons. So now I’m comparing it to itself. Sui generis, indeed.

I set slightly conservative lines compared to last year’s performance for a reason. Given the heavy action on the over here, we all seem fairly confident that this year’s defense will be at least as productive in these areas as last year’s, despite losing four excellent players and one very solid one (Tillery, Love, Coney, Tranquill, and Bonner). In years past even I would find that overly rosy, but I agree that things feel different now. The roster has far more depth and especially athleticism than I can remember in the Kelly era at least. The transitions this year aren’t of the Te’o-to-Calabrese nature.

1.5 non-offense touchdowns (BK avg: 2.2)

  • Readers: 83% over, 17% under
  • Staff: 84% over, 16% under

I actually took the under here, as conservative as the line may seem. The BK average is somewhat inflated by performance earlier in his tenure, particularly regarding kick return success. There have been just four non-offense touchdowns in the last three seasons combined, and all of them came courtesy of players who are no longer here – two by Julian Love and two by CJ Sanders. So while I’d love to be wrong on this one, I suspect we’ll hit the under this year. Still, I respect your optimism, dear readers.

Long field goal of 44.5 yards

  • Readers: 35% over, 65% under
  • Staff:55% over, 45% under

Divergence! Jon Doerer’s consistency is probably one of the most enigmatic topics of the offseason. I think it’s very safe to say that we’ll see a decline in field goal percentage from Justin Yoon, who is the program’s all-time record holder by a large margin. We’ll probably also see Kelly go for it on fourth down more often. At the same time, Doerer does have a very strong leg and he’ll probably get a shot from this distance at some point. We shall see.

Image result for animal house golf gifPolian as Otter: “Don’t think of it as work. The whole point is just to enjoy yourself.”

Long punt of 54.5 yards

  • Readers: 34% over, 66% under
  • Staff: 45% over, 55% under

This is another one that I think could happen, and in fact I took the over here. Bramblett has a pretty good leg and really started to settle in late in fall camp. All it takes is one boomer with a bit of a roll and he’ll get it.

3.5 kickoff returns past own 40 (last season: 2, with one called back for penalty)

  • Readers: 24% over, 76% under
  • Staff: 10% over, 90% under

😢

5.5 punt returns of 10+ yards (last season: 5)

  • Readers: 51% over, 49% under
  • Staff: 30% over, 70% under

Finke was responsible for all five last year and he’s back this year. I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll see a bit of an uptick this year, but, as we’ve highlighted before, with rules changes the days of a Tim-Brown-like punt return game are all but gone.

10.5 offensive possessions vs. Navy (11+ generally indicates a blowout)

  • Readers: 71% over, 29% under
  • Staff: 85% over, 15% under

An experienced, efficient offense against a rice-paper defense, and a hyper-athletic defense against the worst Navy passing offense in my recollection. Good call, folks.

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Coach Sweep-the-Leg pleading with his charges. (A double insult, because this is an Army guy. Savage!)

3,500 passing yards by Ian Book (last season: 2,615 in his 9 starts)

  • Readers: 57% over, 43% under
  • Staff: 65% over, 35% under

Another one that’s perhaps a bit misleading prima facie, but many of you saw past it… At first glance, the gap between 3,500 and 2,615 seems rather large, which may have led some of you to instinctively choose the under. However, when you do the math, last season’s performance works out to about 290 yards per start; if you assume 13 starts for Book this year at an equivalent effectiveness level, that would result in 3,770 yards. So the heart of this question is two-fold: (a) Do you think Book will be as good as he was last year? (b) Do you think he’ll start 13 games? I think the answer to (a) is no, he’ll be better. The answer to (b) is… man, I hope so.

800 total yards by Jafar Armstrong (last season: 542 in 10 games)

  • Readers: 67% over, 33% under
  • Staff: 90% over, 10% under

Armstrong’s usage faded last season after his knee infection; he came back and was of course a significant part of the offense, but not to the degree he had been earlier in the season. So this is again partly a health projection, partly a backfield time-share projection, and partly a versatility projection. Camp reports have Armstrong moving into the slot frequently, and in fact in the last open practice he caught two deep post touchdowns from there. If you believe he can hold up, the over seems very much within reach.

70 receptions by Chase Claypool (last season: 50)

  • Readers: 53% over, 47% under
  • Staff: 55% over, 45% under

60 receptions by Chris Finke (last season: 49)

  • Readers: 63% over, 37% under
  • Staff: 70% over, 30% under

40 receptions by running backs (last season: 37)

  • Readers: 85% over, 15% under
  • Staff: 90% over, 10% under

I was a little surprised by the results here; even if you think we’re going to pass more often this year this is still a bit of a zero-sum game, especially if you think Cole Kmet is going to end up a bigger factor in the offense than Alize Mack was last year. So I guess the takeaway is that the vast majority of you think we’re going to chuck it all over the place this season.

That should go over well with everyone in the fan base, I’m sure.

13.5 sacks by Julian Okwara (last season: 8.0; his stated goal: 18.5; school record: 13.5, Justin Tuck, 2003)

  • Readers: 52% over, 48% under
  • Staff: 55% over, 45% under

I think he’s going to pull off the school record. Not sure about his own goal, but he had those 8 last year and supposedly he and Elston identified at least half of his 21 pressures that “should” have been sacks. He’s absolutely convinced that he can pull it off. And, hey, who of us is ready to argue with him?

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Trust us, you don’t want to annoy Julian. It never ends well.

13.5 havoc plays generated by Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah (Elko-Lea FBS average: 12.2)

  • Readers: 44% over, 56% under
  • Staff: 40% over, 60% under

“Havoc” is an S&P+ term that I’ve fudged a bit for these purposes. The estimable Bill Connelly counts passes defensed (broken up + interceptions), tackles for loss, and forced fumbles as havoc. He then calculates a havoc rate per defensive level – so how much of a team’s havoc is caused by the DL, the LBs, and the DBs. That gives a sense of a team’s defensive personality.

Connelly doesn’t include QB pressures because, in his words, “there is far too much inconsistency in how they are recorded.” For our purposes here, I did included pressures. So that’s what we’re talking about. In the two years of the Elko/Lea defense at Notre Dame, Drue Tranquill had 18.5 havoc plays as 2017’s rover and Asmar Bilal had 6.0 as 2018’s rover (with very different responsibilities). I think Wu is going to be more Tranquill than Bilal, but we’ll see.

1.5 interceptions by Kyle Hamilton

  • Readers: 59% over, 41% under
  •  Staff: 70% over, 30% under

The more camp reports I read, the more I thought I set this line too low. Wait, I’m not supposed to say that… I mean, we’re just hoping all the freshmen can get acclimated, nothing really to report there, nothing remarkable or generational happening, honest…

3.5 single-score margin games

  • Readers: 65% over, 35% under
  • Staff: 68% over, 32% under

S&P+ expects this to be even more lopsided. According to its preseason projections, only two games are expected to be within a single score: It favors Michigan by 5 and has Stanford as a 6.6 point dog. It favors Georgia by 14, while the rest of its projections favor the Irish by anywhere from 11 (USC) to 41 (Navy). The average margin for all games is +16, which if it holds would lead to comfortably the most positive differential of the Kelly era, but the expected record is 9-3. Weird year.

2.5 meaningful appearances by Phil Jurkovec

  • Readers: 17% over, 83% under
  • Staff: 25% over, 75% under

Let’s hope.

3.5 games played by Kevin Austin

  • Readers: 82% over, 18% under
  • Staff: 50% over, 50% under

Yeah, we’re a little more down on this one… Very, very few people know what the full story is here (which is fine with us, for the record), but by all accounts Austin is genuinely a good kid who has done some dumb things.  As opposed to a guy like, say, KJ, who couldn’t stop running afoul of the criminal justice system. We’ve heard some vague indications that if this was 15 years ago Austin would no longer be enrolled, so let’s all thank our lucky stars that it’s not 15 years ago. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’ll be happy to see any meaningful contribution from him this year.

UPDATE: Welp… News broke yesterday that Austin will miss the entire season, which unfortunately is in keeping with the less-vague of those indications that we had heard. So those of you who bet the under, well done. Rumor has it that Austin knew about this impending season-long suspension before fall camp started, so if you’re into prophesying that would seem to be a good sign that he intends to ride it out.

animal house dean GIF
Sigh.

3.5 penalties for kickoffs out of bounds

  • Readers: 59% over, 41 % under
  • Staff: 44% over, 56% under

I’m in the camp that thinks that, at worst, Doerer won’t get the chance to put this many out of bounds. Damning with faint praise.

∞ times Irish fans will mutter “Shut up, Doug”

  • Readers: 82% over, 18% under
  • Staff: 95% over, 5% under

Some of you show an awful lot of faith in the coherence and insight of Doug Flutie. I find your lack of lack of faith… disturbing. Either that or you’re professional mathematicians with a penchant for following the rules.

0.5 viral memes featuring Brian Kelly

  • Readers: 73% over, 27% under
  • Staff: 70% over, 30% under

I rather suspect that nothing will shine so brightly as BK Homeboy, but… If one of the lead stories of your season is something like a viral meme of the head coach throwing deuces, you’ve had a good year. Plus, we really need to make sure ND Twitter has enough to talk about. Fingers crossed.


I mean, how do you follow this?

Prop Bets

Notre Dame will have a 1,000 yard rusher in 2019.

  • Readers: 16% true, 84% false
  • Staff: 20% true, 80% false

Notre Dame will have a 1,000 yard receiver in 2019.

  • Readers: 74% true, 26% false
  • Staff: 80% true, 20% false

Reinforcing again the apparent belief noted above that we’re going to try to make Ian Book’s arm fall off this year. Josh Adams led the 2017 team with 1,430 yards rushing, while Dexter Williams logged 995 yards in just nine games last year. So I don’t think a 1,000 yard rushing season is totally out of the question, but I agree that the RB-by-committee combined with the potential dominance of Claypool and Finke and the receiving ability of all the backs makes it less likely.

The Notre Dame defense will record its first shutout since September 6, 2014.

  • Readers: 39% true, 61% false
  • Staff: 30% true, 70% false

Why is it that date significant? I just… I don’t know, I don’t quite seem to be able to put my finger on it… Oh yeah:

Image result for nd 37 michigan 0

h/t to the Rakes Report podcast for highlighting this point!

Back to the question at hand… Sure, shutouts are hard. If you truly think it’s too hard to shut anyone out this year, though, I ask you to consider this: Scot Loeffler, OC of the triple-digit-ranked Boston College offense, was hired as Bowling Green’s head coach in the offseason. He hired former colleague Brian VanGorder as his defensive coordinator. Where were they colleagues? Well, I’m glad you asked! For one magical year at Auburn in 2012, when the Tigers went 3-9 in Gene Chizik’s last year and could neither score nor stop anyone from scoring. In fact, they lost to top-ten Georgia and Alabama teams by a combined score of 87-0. This is the same Auburn program that, one year later under Gus Malzahn, went 12-2 and lost in the national championship game by 3 points. That’s a remarkable level of coaching ineptitude. What I’m saying is, I like our chances.

Jon Doerer will be less accurate than Justin Yoon (80.8% career) but top Yoon’s career long (52 yards).

  • Readers: 23% true, 77% false
  • Staff: 20% true, 80% false

Seems unlikely, sure. But if you’re looking for a flyer, you should be able to get pretty long money line odds on this one.

Notre Dame will have a top 20 S&P+ offense and defense (last year: 33rd offense, 10th defense).

  • Readers: 55% true, 45% false
  • Staff: 75% true, 25% false

Despite the defensive losses, I think there’s an excellent chance that this will hold true. The pre-Book-as-QB1 segment of 2018 dragged the offensive ranking down substantially; Connelly posted a Book-only rank late in the season and I believe it was 8th. That probably slid a bit after a sluggish performance against USC and the throttling by Clemson, but still, this seems very much within reach.

Notre Dame will head to Palo Alto in playoff contention.

  • Readers: 57% true, 43% false
  • Staff: 50% true, 50% false

Get on the train, folks. I don’t see us getting past Georgia, but I think we’re going to handle everyone else. And you read above what I think will happen in Palo Alto this year. A ritual bloodletting. Will that be enough to get in the playoff? I don’t know. But I do think we’ll be in the conversation.

Notre Dame’s highest-ranked end-of-season win (not counting a potential bowl game) will be…

  • Readers: 33% Michigan, 67% the field
  • Staff: 20% Michigan, 80% the field

Michigan is currently the second-highest ranked Irish opponent per the AP and coaches polls, behind Georgia in both cases. There are a few ways to take this question, of course. Perhaps you thought that:

  • Notre Dame will lose to Michigan, or…
  • Notre Dame will beat Michigan but the Wolverines will slide behind someone else, or…
  • Notre Dame will beat Michigan and Georgia, but Georgia will stay ahead of Michigan.

#1 is the only incorrect answer. You’re not welcome at our postgame party if that was your thought process here. Otherwise, have at it.

animal house satan GIF
“Michigan.” He was looking for “Michigan.” The confusion is understandable though.

Wrapping Up

It’s not at all hyperbole to say we sit at an unusual point for the Notre Dame football program. The Irish have an opportunity to win 10 games in three consecutive years for just the second time in school history, with the first such stretch ending 36 years ago. The 2017-18 seasons are the first back-to-back 10-win seasons since then, as well (my God, have we been wandering in the desert). A firmly entrenched starting QB returns for the first time since Jimmy Clausen in 2009. The backup defensive ends would probably start for nearly all of the Irish teams of the last 25 years. The backups! A current point of contention among Irish fans is how ready some reserve OL may be to play a bigger role in 2020. There are legitimate concerns for 2019, certainly, as we saw above. But it definitely feels like Notre Dame football is in a much healthier place than it has been since the peak of the Holtz era, before the scholarship limit was trimmed to 85 and the administration ushered Cerrato out the door.

So where does that leave us when projecting 2019? It leaves me, the eternal optimist, determined to project conservatively because as a long-suffering Irish fan I just can’t believe the high side of what I think is possible. I think this program is right on the doorstep of elite status, and if just a couple of things break the right way this season it could storm through. I think this offense can execute at a higher level than we’ve seen since Kevin McDougal was under center, and has the potential to lay waste to ten or eleven regular season opponents. (Seriously.) I think this defense is inexperienced in some key spots that make me worry, but also more athletic than we’ve seen since… maybe ever? (Again, seriously.) And it has the potential to strangle, again, ten or eleven regular season opponents. Michigan is the hedge in both cases; I don’t think they’ll be terrible but I also don’t think they’re in our class. That’s fun to say.

So that’s what I think might be possible. Think. Might. Possible. All words carefully chosen to curb my natural enthusiasm. What do I believe? Honestly, I’m not sure yet, other than that this year is going to be a hell of a fun ride with a bunch of kids who make it easy to pull for them. Go Irish.

Related image
Time to have some fun, folks. Let’s do this.