With the season around the corner, it’s time to check in on Notre Dame’s opponents with some advanced stats projections. Which teams pose the biggest threats to the Irish, who are currently favored in 11 of 12 games? Where are the weak points, and what might the computers be missing?

If you want to dive into some of the projections on your own, links below:

Florida State

Pre-season rankings: #77 (FEI), #44 (FPI), #50 (SP+)
Season win total: 5.5 (Over -125 / Under +105)

What the advanced stats like: The rushing attack

Mike Norvell injected some excitement into a struggling offense last season after benching James Blackman for more of a dual-threat in Jordan Travis. While the Irish were solid in limiting Travis’s rushing and scrambling in South Bend last season, he was one of the most explosive runners at QB last season. Paired with improved run-blocking from the line and some talented running backs, the Noles managed to finish 6th in EPA/run and 12th in rushing success rate last season.

As you’ll see below, the FSU offense was very one-dimensional, but that dimension was at least strong against a soft schedule. Whether Travis or UCF legend and transfer Mackenzie Milton wins the starting job, they should provide a dual threat to go with a line returning the majority of starts and two good backs in Jashaun Corbin and Lawrance Toafili.

What the advanced stats don’t like: A shaky defensive roster and passing game performance

Despite the usual blue-chip talent and potential stars at every level, the FSU defense finished last season 85th in Defensive SP+ and 108th in DFEI. The top talent like Asante Samuel Jr., Josh Kaindoh, Marvin Wilson, and Hamsah Nasrildeen left for the draft, and the Seminoles rate 97th nationally in returning defensive production. This was a defense that struggled mightily with consistency and generating any pressure last season (113th in team sack rate). They’ll attempt a turnaround with transfers like former UGA linebacker Jermaine Johnson and hoping some young players emerge, but SP+ projects their defense to improve only to 69th (not so nice relative to expectations).

Last season the Seminoles were also abysmal whenever they had to throw the ball, rankings 100th or worse in overall passing success rate, passing down success rate, sack rate allowed, and 75th in EPA per pass. The offensive line has oscillated over the last few years between one of the worst in the power five to merely bad, although FSU has attempted yet again to patch things up with transfers. While things project to improve with Travis gaining experience or Milton taking over, there’s still a lack of proven receiving threats to work with. Mike Norvell may need to again try to piece things together with shorter passes – the Noles had one of the highest percentages of receiving yards that came after the catch in 2020.

What the advanced stats don’t know: How the QB battle will play out

The Florida State quarterback room presents a ton of challenges for any projection system – do you count Milton’s incredible UCF production from two seasons ago, before his horrific leg injury? Added together with Travis’s production that seems to double count at an important position that is no lock to be a strength in 2021. Typically a grad transfer QB would be the favorite to start Week 1, but so much depends on Milton’s physical recovery, and even if he gets the nod you can bet Travis will see the field too in some rushing situations.

Whether it’s the Milton comeback story or Travis improving enough to start, it’s a dangerous environment for a Notre Dame team that has been rusty early in their opening games against ACC opponents the past two years. The long wait until the game on Sunday night will be difficult on everyone, Doak Campbell will feature a packed house whipped into a frenzy, and the potential upset in the first game after Bobby Bowden’s passing will be an irresistible subplot.

Toledo

Pre-season rankings: #79 (FEI), #66 (FPI), #66 (SP+)
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)

What the advanced stats like: Returning ridiculous amounts from a solid 2020 team

Toledo finished 76th in SP+ in 2020, just ahead of a swath of P5 teams including Texas Tech, Boston College, Oregon State, Cal, and FSU. The Rockets ranked 61st in Offensive SP+ and 79th in Defensive SP+ – really solid for a MAC team – and are projected in a similar range (top 70) on both sides of the ball this year.

While the talent disadvantage against a team like Notre Dame is enormous, the continuity for Toledo will be there. The Rockets return virtually every starter, including 97% of their returning defensive production. They are the preseason MAC favorites for a reason and likely a tougher opponent than a few of the bigger name programs on the schedule.

What the advanced stats don’t like: The ceiling on talent and performance for a MAC team

While there’s a lot to like about Toledo, MAC programs are going to run up against a tough ceiling trying to break much higher than the top 60-70 teams in FBS. There’s simply not enough talent on their rosters, and to demonstrate the ability to compete with decent power five teams they should be dominating the conference. This is a program competing at close to their ceiling right now, and there just isn’t much room for improvement.

What the advanced stats don’t know: How the Irish will bounce back and focus on a short week

While it would take a total disaster for Notre Dame to come close to losing this home opener, it will pose a serious challenge to the staff managing Toledo week. With travel back from Tallahassee after a draining game likely played in 90% humidity, the Irish will quickly need to regroup and turn their focus to the MAC favorite coming to town. While the first game since 2019 in a full Notre Dame Stadium should be plenty of motivation, it’s easy to envision a sleepy start and the temptation to underestimate a team like the Rockets.

Purdue

Pre-season rankings: #73 (FEI), #49 (FPI), #52 (SP+)
Season win total: 5 (Over -125 / Under +105)

What the advanced stats like: A solid 2020 offense remains mostly intact

Despite Rondale Moore battling injuries and not making a major impact, the Purdue offense finished 36th in Offensive SP+ and 45th in OFEI. The Boilers scored at least 20 points in every game despite facing some of the better defenses in the division, including an upset of Iowa. In addition to Moore’s struggles, they achieved this production with some quarterback upheaval, as starter Aidan O’Connell was hurt halfway through the year and replaced by Jack Plummer.

The good news for 2021 is that Jeff Brohm has two experienced options returning at QB, brought in a grad transfer just in case in UCLA’s Austin Burton, and returns most of the skill position production from last fall. The headliners include two native Hoosiers, junior all-Big Ten receiver David Bell and Mishawaka native and bellcow running back Zander Horvath.

What the advanced stats don’t like: A defense in need of a post-Diaco renovation

While Purdue scored at least 20 points in every game last fall, the defense also gave up at least 20 in each contest. This included 34 per game in the four-game losing streak to close the year, against the illustrious offenses of Northwestern, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Nebraska. Bob Diaco was a one-and-done in West Lafayette as a result, and Brohm overhauled the defense by bringing in a couple of experienced hires as co-defensive coordinators. Marshall’s Brad Lambert and former Eastern Michigan head coach and Michigan DC Ron English, who spent the last three years as an assistant at Florida, will try to jumpstart things with a few transfers and returning back to a 4-3 front.

What the advanced stats don’t know: Jeff Brohm is a scary big-game coach


Thankfully, Rondale Moore’s Purdue career intersected with a break from the Irish playing the Boilermakers

While Brohm has lost some of his shine after an incredibly strong first year in West Lafayette, he’s still a top offensive mind in college football and fearless as an underdog. The Boilers will be coming off a warm-up against UConn and have plenty of time to prepare for Notre Dame and find matchups they like for the skill position weapons. Expect plenty of 4th down attempts, trick plays, and probably an onside kick or two after watching film of the 2020 Irish kick return team.

Wisconsin

Pre-season rankings: #6 (FEI), #17 (FPI), #6 (SP+)
Season win total: 9.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)

What the advanced stats like: The defense and track record of success

Under Jim Leonhard the Wisconsin defense has consistently cracked the top-10 defenses nationally, and advanced stats love the Badgers 2020 season. It’s a small sample since UW only played seven games, and the opponents they faced were not good offensively (Minnesota, Indiana without Michael Penix, and Iowa are your choices for the best opposing attack). Still, Wisconsin did not allow an opponent over six yards per play in any contest and finished 4th nationally in both DFEI and Defensive SP+.

In 2021 that defense returns most starters – there are significant losses on the defensive line and all-time name team member Rachad Wildgoose from the secondary, but the linebacking corps and secondary all feature a two-deep with tons of experience. That combination of returning production and 2020 performance leads SP+ to project the Badgers as the #2 defense in FBS heading into 2021, trailing only… Iowa (SP+ may have a problem computing Big Ten West results from the pandemic).

What the advanced stats don’t like: The offense down the stretch in 2020

In a very strange season marred by both a short Big Ten schedule and a COVID outbreak that sidelined the team for weeks, the Badger offense fell apart in their last few conference games. Against some of the better defenses in their division – Indiana, Northwestern, and Iowa – Wisconsin failed to crack double-digit points. The offense wasn’t explosive and couldn’t rely on the program foundation of rushing efficiency, finishing just 53rd in run success rate and 88th in pass success rate.

Somehow between the hot start and limited schedule (with so few games, I believe pre-season projections were still built into some Big Ten team’s ratings), the Wisconsin offense finished 43rd in Offensive SP+. In DFEI they were 98th – did I mention advanced stats systems struggled with 2020? The offense is projected to improve with Graham Mertz and a majority of the offensive line returning, but there were some significant red flags if you believe those pandemic-impacted games are predictive of any 2021 performance.

What the advanced stats don’t know: What to expect from Graham Mertz

Alternative: Notre Dame has never lost a Shamrock Series game

When Mertz debuted with a nearly perfect game against Illinois (20-21 for 248 yards and 5 TDs) Badger fans salivated. Imagine the Paul Chryst running games and defenses with a top quarterback! But Mertz apparently injured his shoulder the next week in a blowout win over Michigan, right as COVID woes hit Wisconsin (including Mertz testing positive) full force. Over the final four Big Ten games Mertz threw five interceptions and one touchdown, failed to break 230 yards passing, and Wisconsin scored a total of 40 points.

What can you take from those performances? It’s impossible to know how Mertz would have fared against tougher defenses pre-shoulder injury, COVID, and his concussion against Minnesota. The former Irish recruiting target brings more talent to the QB position than Wisconsin has had since Jack Coan (just kidding, probably Russell Wilson), but it’s fair to call his weapons solid but unspectacular. Mertz will have to be more of the difference-maker he flashed promise of in his first two starts in order for the Badgers to take out the Irish and compete for the Big Ten title.

Cincinnati

Pre-season rankings: #22 (FEI), #22 (FPI), #17 (SP+)
Season win total: 10 (Over -105 / Under -114)

What the advanced stats like: Another strong defense and Desmond Ridder

After finishing 5th in Defensive SP+ in 2020, the  Bearcats are projected to have another top-10 level defense despite the loss of a few starters. Losing Marcus Freeman is a consequential blow, but Luke Fickell is a top defensive mind in his own right and brings back NFL talent on the defensive line and in the secondary. Cincinnati was 2nd in opponent pass success rate allowed and 22nd in opponent rushing efficiency, and there are few red flags for regression.

Senior QB Desmond Ridder also returns to fuel the offense after making a strong leap in 2020. The dual-threat increased his completion percentage by 11% from 2019 (55% to 66%) while his yards per attempt jumped by 1.5 (6.7 to 8.2). Ridder also added nearly 600 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns on the ground, finishing last season ahead of Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, and Brock Purdy in QBR. His returning production provides a high floor for an offense with question marks on the offensive line.

What the advanced stats don’t like: The talent on hand isn’t on par with other top-20 teams 

Under Luke Fickell the Bearcats have proven to be an excellent developmental program, but Cincinnati simply isn’t working with the raw materials of other top-25 teams. Looking at last year’s 247 Program Talent Composite (not updated yet for 2021), Cincy had just seven blue-chip (4* or higher) players on the roster. Even after an excellent 2020, the best player in Fickell’s 2021 signing class was a three-star ranked #373 nationally.

This dynamic is what makes breaking into the top-10 stratosphere so difficult for a G5 program, even one as well-coached and strong identifying and developing talent as Cincinnati. It’s an achievement that the Bearcats are at a comparable level to P5 programs like Indiana, Boston College (although Jeff Hafley appears to quickly be injecting some fresh blood into recruiting), Virginia, or Syracuse. But they’re still a tier below programs like Pitt, Michigan State, NC State, and others that we can hardly conceive becoming playoff contenders. It makes the margin for error incredibly slim as the staff must continue excelling in finding the right 3* players, developing strong starters and depth, and creating schematic advantages.

What the advanced stats don’t know: Marcus Freeman vs. Luke Fickell

Have you heard these guys know each other? In a game that looks like it could be dominated by two elite defenses, it will be fascinating to see how this mentee-mentor relationship plays out. Freeman has an encyclopedic knowledge of Fickell’s philosophy and the Cincinnati personnel; Fickell will have a strong grasp on the concepts Freeman is installing with fresh talent at Notre Dame. This contest may come down to whether Notre Dame’s potential advantages in the trenches can win out over Cincinnati’s projected edges at QB and CB.

Virginia Tech

Pre-season rankings: #39 (FEI), #26 (FPI), #33 (SP+)
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +120 / Under -140)

What the advanced stats like: An explosive offense returns enough to feel optimistic

The Hokies 2020 offense was a big-play machine with Herndon Hooker and Khalil Herbert on the ground opening up big plays through the air. Virginia Tech finished 20th in Offensive SP+ and 35th in OFEI, with Justin Fuente’s offensive brainpower finally shining through. Herbert and Hooker are both gone – Herbert to the draft, Hooker to Tennessee – but new starter Braxton Burmeister took over down the stretch and is also a dangerous threat on the ground. The offensive line loses Christian Darrisaw but returns four starters with 94 combined starts, and the three leading receivers are all back. The offense is 95th in weighted returning production, factoring in heavily the loss of Hooker, but that could be misleading if Burmeister was the favorite to beat out Hooker anyway.

What the advanced stats don’t like: A long way to go reclaiming the VT defensive identity

Since the end of the Bud Foster-Frank Beamer partnership, the Hokies have struggled to regain their former defensive prowess. Tech finished 94th in opponent success rate allowed in 2020 and is projected 51st for next season in Defensive SP+. They’ll be buoyed by the return of several players in the secondary from injury and suspension, which will help the ailing pass defense. But the run defense and pass rush, where the Hokies finished 93rd last season, still loom as concerns. The advanced stats projections don’t see the old Virginia Tech mystique, just a defense that has struggled recently and doesn’t bring much continuity into 2021 to ensure meaningful improvement.

What the advanced stats don’t know: The state of the Hokies locker room 

The Justin Fuente era has been a rocky one in Blacksburg, with Virginia Tech just 19-18 over the past three seasons. It’s not just the record – there’s been a spike in transfers, with some jarring mid-season dismissals also included. He’s clearly lost the locker room at various points, highlighted by the end of 2018 when several players were hoping to lose to Marshall in order to avoid bowl eligibility that would prolong the season.

Fuente enters 2021 firmly on the hot seat, and while it’s unlikely things are definitive by early October when the Irish visit Lane Stadium, things could spiral quickly with early struggles. The Hokies face UNC at home in a massive, nationally televised game the Friday of Week 1, then travel to West Virginia in Week 3. If Virginia Tech can’t beat the Mountaineers or upset the Heels or Irish at home, they are facing a 2-3 start with a coach that doesn’t seem to deal with adversity well. It will be fascinating to see how the season plays out with this combustible situation but a talented team.

USC

Pre-season rankings: #25 (FEI), #21 (FPI), #14 (SP+)
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

What the advanced stats like: The talented offense led by Kedon Slovis

Slovis was a revelation as a true freshman in 2019, thriving in USC’s new Air Raid under Graham Harrell with a cadre of weapons around him. But it wasn’t all about the weapons – Slovis was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in FBS, ranking first in percentage of on-target attempts. While 2020 was a rockier season, the Trojans still finished 11th in Offense SP+, with Drake London emerging as a top NFL prospect and the WR1 even with veterans Amon Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns still on the roster.

London will be the best wide receiver the Irish face this fall, and Texas transfer Keontay Ingram brings in another experienced back to pair with Vavae Malepeai. There are questions on the offensive line and which blue chip receivers will emerge to complement London, but this should be another strong SC offense led by a first-round talent like Slovis.

What the advanced stats don’t like: A defense still searching for a foothold

The Trojans are projected 33rd in Defensive SP+, but USC will be looking for more in their second year under veteran DC Todd Orlando. SC is just 101st in returning defensive production though, and loses Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Talanoa Hufanga, two starting defensive linemen, and two other starters from the secondary.

The upside is that there’s the usual Southern Cal top-end talent there – edge Drake Jackson, top 2021 signee Korey Foreman, and CB Chris Steele. But there are question marks at every level of the defense, especially in the interior defensive line and linebacker spots. Thanks to some Clay Helton recruiting woes, things are thinner at many positions than you’d expect at SC, and it seems unlikely this can become a top-25 unit.

What the advanced stats don’t know: How Slovis will hold up over the full season

The junior USC quarterback is another talented passer with questions about his 2020 performance. Slovis burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2019, finishing top-10 in QBR and flashing elite accuracy with a talented group of receivers. Last fall, despite the Trojans strong record, Slovis took a step back. He dealt with an early shoulder injury and admitted he never fully regained confidence in his throwing arm, and then was hurt again in the Pac-12 title game loss to Oregon.

The Trojans will again likely have some issues at offensive line, which combined with the Air Raid and a lot of attempts for Slovis puts him at risk for injury again. His health and confidence will be something to monitor throughout the season, as Slovis is being widely projected as a 1st round draft pick on the assumption he can regain his 2019 form.

UNC

Pre-season rankings: #32 (FEI), #14 (FPI), #11 (SP+)
Season win total: 9.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

What the advanced stats like: The 2020 offense was terrific and Sam Howell returns 

The Heels finished 6th in Offensive SP+ last season and will look to repeat that performance in what should be Sam Howell’s final season. With Howell an early Heisman favorite, UNC is projected 6th on offense despite losing two running backs and two receivers to the NFL draft. Transfer running back Ty Chandler and the entire starting offensive line returning will help ease that blow, and Howell does return veteran receiver Beau Corrales from injury to pair with some emerging underclassmen.

Phil Longo seems to float under the radar as an offensive mind as Mack Brown, Howell, and the skill position players get the bulk of the credit. But despite some struggles on offensive line, Longo has engineered an offense tailored to Howell’s strengths that have been extremely effective both rushing and passing. Turnover at wide receiver hurts the projection, but Howell and the entire starting offensive line returning leads the stats systems to predict another really strong year scoring points.

What the advanced stats don’t like: Questions about if the defense is ready to make a leap

There’s a wide range of rankings from 2020 for the UNC defense – FEI had the Tar Heels 90th, while SP+ had them 53rd. Whether they were horrible or merely below average, the defense remains the weakness of this team. Last season the run defense especially struggled in big games, allowing a 50% opponent rushing success rate (108th) and over 200 yards in each of Carolina’s losses.

The other weakness is if the offensive line can’t improve in pass protection. The Tar Heels ranked 106th in sack rate allowed, and Howell was constantly under pressure against good defenses. Returning experience is great, but unless that Achilles heel is patched up it will be challenging for Howell to maintain his consistent production when paired with the talent drain at wide receiver.

What the advanced stats don’t know: If young talent is ready to elevate key positions

Mack Brown has boosted recruiting efforts, but the blue-chip talent is heavily concentrated in underclassmen right now. A lot will depend on whether or not those players are ready to contribute early and break out in 2021, especially at wide receiver and defensive line. Josh Downs was a top-100 recruit at WR who will be counted on to help fill the Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome void, with fellow blue-chip sophomore Khafre Brown also in the mix. UNC has landed five defensive linemen ranked #151 or better in their past two classes, which could bolster a defense that was strong rushing the passer in 2020 (14th in sack rate) but struggled against the run (ranked 90th or worse in line yards allowed, opponent run success rate, and stuff rate – essentially every key advanced stat for run defense).

Navy

Pre-season rankings: #65 (FEI), #116 (FPI), #112 (SP+)
Season win total: 3.5 (Over -110 / Under -100)

What the advanced stats like: If you don’t have nice things to say… 

It was a disaster for Navy in 2020, with the Middies winning three games by a grand total of nine points. The bottom fell out of the offense, as Ken Niumatalolo’s attack finished 102nd in Offensive SP+ and 110th in DFEI. Navy scored seven points in less in half of their ten games. Run efficiency is the name of the game for Navy, and they finished 117th in run success rate while struggling to find a replacement for Malcolm Perry at QB. The Midshipmen didn’t have full-contact practices leading up to the season and were obliterated early on by BYU and Air Force.

The defense wasn’t much better, ranking 83rd in DFEI and 90th in Defensive SP+. The unit improved down the stretch, allowing 14.7 points per game over the final three games. Unfortunately, that coincided with the offense struggling to manufacture any points and resulted in three losses.

What the advanced stats don’t like: See above

What the advanced stats don’t know: As always, it’s hard to project the service academies 

While the Midshipmen may not be strong in 2021, it’s worth noting that the service academies fit poorly in advanced stat systems and nearly always overachieve their projections. The recruiting rankings don’t apply cleanly given both the unique commitment and the option-specific roles for offensive players. Past turnarounds have been rapid when Navy can find a dynamic player like Keenan Reynolds or Malcolm Perry to lead the attack. Defensive coordinator Brian Newberry led an incredible improvement in 2019, and after a COVID layoff last season the defense showed signs of improvement. Always assume the Navy game will be a painful, arduous slog and be pleasantly surprised if it turns comfortable like the last meeting in 2019.

Virginia

Pre-season rankings: #44 (FEI), #37 (FPI), #56 (SP+)
Season win total: 6.5 (Over +105 / Under -125)

What the advanced stats like: The ground game on both sides of the ball

No disrespect intended, but the Cavaliers were a fairly nondescript team in 2020 and look to be similar in 2021. The exception to that overall description is QB Brennan Armstrong, who shouldered an immense burden for the offense. Armstrong averaged nearly 30 attempts per game while also doubling as the teams leading rusher with 552 yards on the ground. UVA struggled on both sides of the ball with the passing game and in coverage, was very solid both running and in run defense.

What the advanced stats don’t like: The defense and lack of upside

The combination of good but not great ground production and passing game struggles all averaged out to a team that had mediocre performance on both sides of the ball. SP+ projects the Hoos 47th on offense and 67th on defense, not too far from last year’s respective finishes of 55th and 57th. There’s upside in the rushing game – in addition to Armstrong’s legs, they’ll use some Wildcat looks and return most of the offensive line this year – but they’ll need a counterpunch in 2021. The defense is 116th in returning production, and while Mendenhall may work some magic, it’s tough to see them rebounding to the top-40 level they’ve been able to achieve early in his tenure.

What the advanced stats don’t know: Is this Notre Dame’s weird ACC game of the year?

This guy has to be in the stadium again in November, right?

It seems like every year there’s a weird ACC game, usually against a mediocre foe, where its a sluggish start, weird conditions, and  suddenly things are tight in the second half. In 2018 it was Pitt at home, then Virginia Tech in 2019, and Louisville in the wind last year. If I had to make a prediction, this game in Charlottesville is my pick for that game if it continues into 2021. Mendenhall’s teams have a history of playing the Irish pretty close, and while there’s no outstanding strengths this team won’t have too many glaring holes either. It’s positioned after the early five-game gauntlet and then a week of preparing for the triple option. Fingers crossed that last second heroics won’t be needed like the last trip to Scott Stadium.

Georgia Tech

Pre-season rankings: #98 (FEI), #57 (FPI), #62 (SP+)
Season win total: 4.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

What the advanced stats like: Jeff Sims and Jahmyr Gibbs as a young foundation

The Yellow Jackets predictably struggled last season as the long rebuild from the triple-option continues. But they stumbled into a promising young nucleus with the freshman duo of QB Jeff Sims and RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Sims provides an explosive running threat at QB, with 25 runs of 10+ yards last season. Gibbs was also electric, rushing for 5.2 yards per carry and averaging 12.6 yards per catch, finishing the season at Tech’s second-leading receiver.

There were bumps in the road, to be sure – the offensive line was shaky, ranking 113th in stuff rate allowed and 89th in sack rate allowed. Tech as a team was 121st in penalties, with tons of false starts. But the offensive line should improve with experience and the now-typical solution of a few transfers that could start, and Sims and Gibbs threat on the ground gives the offense a decent floor. If in Year 2 they can build on their rushing success and add some consistency in the passing game, this is an offense that could make a decent leap.

What the advanced stats don’t like: No passing game and a stagnant defense

The Jackets finished 80th in passing success rate last season, and Sims threw as many interceptions as touchdowns, with some fumbles added in to make matters worse. As explosive as Gibbs and Sims can be together, taking the next step offensively will require a more multi-dimensional attack and the ability to move the chains more often in obvious passing situations.

The defense was projected to take a major leap last season as Collins brought in several big transfers to pair with a young defense that returned the vast majority of two-deep. It didn’t happen, as Georgia Tech finished 58th in Defensive SP+ and 88th in DFEI. There’s more turnover this season, and it feels like Collins may need to continue treading water developing his defense until his recruiting efforts and scheme changes can be fully implemented.

What the advanced stats don’t know: The Yellow Jackets motivation in late November

While Geoff Collins would love to jumpstart his Atlanta-focused rebuild with a bowl appearance, Georgia Tech’s schedule is brutal in 2021. After two easier openers against Northern Illinois and FCS Kennesaw State, they open conference play with Clemson and UNC back-to-back. There’s two easier ACC foes next in Pittsburgh and Duke, but then the six games down the stretch in order are Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College, Notre Dame, and Georgia. That’s a stretch where 3-3 would be a remarkable achievement, and you have to wonder if things could spiral late in the season if the losses have mounted.

Stanford

Pre-season rankings: #52 (FEI), #52 (FPI), #64 (SP+)
Season win total: 4 (Over -120 / Under +100)

What the advanced stats like: Under the radar, the Cardinal offense was solid in 2020

In a small six-game Pac-12 slate, the Stanford offense was in good shape! The Cardinal were 22nd in EPA per play on offense, 17th in success rate, and finished 31st in Offense SP+. Davis Mills played his way into a 3rd round draft pick, and the running game was efficient for the first time since Bryce Love’s incredible 2017.

David Shaw’s group will be forced to reload, as they lose Mills and leading receiver Simi Fehoko. But there are some potential answers between senior Jack West and sophomore Tanner McKee, who was a blue-chip recruit before taking his Mormon mission prior to enrolling. If Shaw can find a more balanced attack after recent years where the identity had shifted towards a pass-heavy attack, this can be a unit that ranks in the top half of the Pac-12.

What the advanced stats don’t like: Recent performance has taken a nosedive

While David Shaw’s agent continues to put his name out for NFL jobs each offseason, things in Palo Alto may finally get uncomfortable this year. The Stanford program has not dealt especially well with internal turnover, with the defense dropping off significantly after Derek Mason’s departure and the offense now sputtering since Mike Bloomgren left for Rice. Despite strong QB recruiting, Shaw has struggled to find stability at the position and seems stuck in a cycle of starting young blue chips that leave before they fully actualize. While a Notre Dame trip to Stanford causes PTSD for many fans, this hasn’t been a good team for a while now, and the returning production for 2021 doesn’t give much hope that this fall will see a big bounceback.

What the advanced stats don’t know: Recruiting depth issues may finally be hitting home for David Shaw

Everyone knows Stanford is selective in recruiting, but in the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes, the Cardinal signed just 38 players combined. The quality of those commitments was solid and consistent, ranking in the top 25 in average commitment rating. Most projection systems use the overall recruiting rankings of each class as a proxy for how easily a program will be able to replace outgoing talent. But what that may overlook is how likely it is on a smaller roster for position groups to get thin very quickly with the lack of experienced upperclassmen. In recent years Shaw has seen historical strengths like offensive line talent and run blocking evaporate with injuries and some misses in talent evaluation. Especially by the end of the season when Notre Dame visits Palo Alto, there may be some position groups that are really struggling.