The last time we got together we witnessed a familiar end to a strange season, as the vaunted Crimson Tide beat up on an overmatched Irish quad in the postseason en route to another national title for Nick Saban. Was it 2012? No, 2020! Whee!
Every fan the next time Notre Dame draws Alabama in the postseason. The football part isn’t working, so…
Still, 2020 was an entertaining season, especially in light of our preseason uncertainty over whether there would be any season at all. Ian Book played his way into the fourth round of the NFL draft and a place in Notre Dame’s record books – in the top three all time in each of passer rating, passing yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rushing yards – that’s etched in Formica at the very least if not in stone. Kyren Williams and Michael Mayer burst onto the national scene as emerging stars. Kyle Hamilton did Kyle Hamilton things, including putting the fear of God into the Alabama offense. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah won the Butkus Award and stole some souls along the way. The Irish recorded eight wins of at least two touchdowns. And, of course, logged their first win over a #1 team since Lou Holtz knocked off the late Bobby Bowden’s Florida State Seminoles in 1993.
The offseason was somewhat eventful too. Beloved defensive coordinator Clark Lea left to take the head coach position at Vanderbilt, his alma mater. Notre Dame got into a dogfight with LSU for by far the hottest name on the coordinator market, Cincinnati’s Marcus Freeman, and actually won. Safeties coach Terry Joseph left for the same job at Texas and was replaced by grad assistant Chris O’Leary. The NFL draft also featured Liam Eichenberg, Aaron Banks, and Robert Hainsey going in the first three rounds, which was the first time three linemen from the same school had all been selected that early in the same year. Notre Dame landed coveted grad transfers in quarterback Jack Coan from Wisconsin and Cain Madden from Marshall, where he was a second team All American; they also missed out on Tulsa cornerback Akayleb Evans, who chose to follow his position coach to Missouri.
There are two major storylines heading into the 2021 season:
- How good is Marcus Freeman between the lines? He has blown everyone out of the water outside the lines, to the point where sotto voce whispers would have the Head-Coach-In-Waiting tag attached to him already. Now it’s time for the actual football piece of his job – he was excellent at Cincinnati and optimism runs high, but you never know until the kids actually take the field.
- How easily will Notre Dame replace its lost production? Gone from last year are the program’s all-time winningest quarterback, the #3 runner (same guy), the top two wideouts, a bone-crushing blocker of a tight end, four offensive linemen who will probably all draw an NFL check this year, the Butkus Award winner, two of the top three in sacks, both starting defensive ends, half of the starting secondary… It’s a lot. There are causes for optimism on all those questions: Coan is a battle-hardened guy, the #1 and #2 runners are pretty damn good, those top two wideouts were only the top two because the guys who are now healthy weren’t last year, the offensive line needs to gel but personnel-wise is actually in pretty good shape, the defensive line is absurdly deep, etc. But they’re still major questions.
If the answers to those are “really good” and “pretty easily,” we could be looking at another special season. The potential is definitely there, and (stop me if you’ve heard this one) the early reports from fall camp are extremely interesting. Some might even say exciting. As they say, though, potential gets coaches fired; nothing that dire is truly on the table for Notre Dame in 2021, with apologies to the billboard market, but it’s an unavoidable fact that potential and reality are two different things. In the diminishing realm of sure things for 2021, we know (a) where we will be on most if not all fall Saturdays, and (b) that we’re likely to heavily self-medicate to varying degrees as a coping mechanism. It’s an Irish football tradition. Let’s get to the predictions on everything else, shall we?
“Age quod agis,” according to my classically trained pops, is essentially “Game on.” Picture this scene as ND as Doc vs. the rest of the CFB world as Johnny.
(Yes, I know this is a bit tortured. But it’s an awesome scene.)
One very minor administrative note: I’ve eschewed decimal places in the percentages for the first time this year. We’re not sequencing the human genome here, the precision is hardly necessary and I think it might actually distract from an easy overview of the viewing public’s temperature.
Big Picture Stuff
What will Notre Dame’s 2020 regular season record be?
- 12-0 – 10%
- 11-1 – 37%
- 10-2 – 45%
- 9-3 – 8%
The exclusion of 8-4 is not accidental – I double-checked the results spreadsheet and, yes, not one single solitary person picked 8-4. Last year, 4% picked 8 wins or fewer; in 2019 it was 1%; in 2018, 9%; in 2017, understandably, it was 33%. We all have some high expectations, which is especially interesting given that Vegas has set the O/U on Notre Dame’s win total at 8.5. I’m not telling you to bet the farm on the over, but I’m also not NOT telling you that. Capisce?
For what it’s worth, SP+ also pegs the line at 8.5, while FPI is moderately more bullish at 9.2. FEI projects 9.0 wins, with the Irish favored in 11 games and the twelfth game (Wisconsin) a toss-up. That means that 92% of you have a higher opinion of Notre Dame’s 2021 fortunes than do the professional odds makers and the advanced stats models. Are we all delusional? Or are we fairly adding fuzzy logic to our own mental algorithms?
The staff is equally as optimistic as you are, for what it’s worth; 92% also tabbed 10-2 or better (17% for 12-0, 8% for 11-1, and 67% for 10-2), with 8% opting for 9-3.
Win or lose, all roads lead to Rome.
What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?
- Offensive line play – 43%
- Cornerbacks – 25%
- Offensive explosiveness – 13%
- Receivers – 10%
- Run game consistency – 4%
- Quarterback play – 2%
- Nothing (added specifically for the Rigneys) – 1%
- Less than 1%:
- Defensive consistency
- Defensive ends
- Traits
- Having to watch that one game on Peacock
The lead concern last year was run game consistency, although it wasn’t as clear cut as this year’s leader. On the one hand I was a little surprised that votes weren’t spread out a bit more for a team that’s (hopefully) very much in reload mode; on the other hand, the offensive line lost four starters to the NFL. Whatever may be going on elsewhere, and however good Irish offensive line recruiting might be, that’s a major loss and concern about its remediation is very reasonable.
50% of the staff also picked offensive line play as their biggest concern, with 25% citing offensive explosiveness and another 8% tapping each of receivers, corners, and nothing. (What can I say? The Rigneys voted.)
Will Notre Dame be in the playoff discussion on Halloween?
- Yes – 61%
- No – 39%
Halloween falls the day after the North Carolina game, which concludes the midseason murderers row of four current top 15 teams in five games. Post Halloween, the Irish face an eminently manageable slate of likely bottom-half-of-FBS teams. It’s not that surprising that 47% of you think Notre Dame will finish 11-1 or 12-0 and 61% of you think they’ll still be in the playoff hunt after the seventh game.
Interestingly, the staff was substantially more bearish, with just 42% feeling rosy. Clearly I have more work to do behind the scenes.
How to handle Halloween zombie attacks.
Superlatives
Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?
- Kyren Williams – 42%
- Michael Mayer – 32%
- Jack Coan – 15%
- Kevin Austin – 11%
- Offensive line – <1%
Not surprisingly, you overwhelmingly favored the two guys who have already proven themselves in an Irish uniform. Even with the 2020 season one game shorter than most Williams put up the second highest rushing total of any back in the Brian Kelly era, trailing only Josh Adams’s 2017 output (1,125 vs. 1,430). Mayer became the second tight end of the Kelly era to co-lead the team in receptions, a feat last accomplished by Tyler Eifert in 2012. Both are very solid bets to be high performers this season.
The staff again voted similarly but more definitively for the St. Louis Shimmier, with 75% taking Williams, 17% Mayer, and 8% Coan.
Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?
- Kyle Hamilton – 77%
- Drew White – 7%
- Marist Liufau – 7% 🙁
- Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa – 6%
- Isaiah Foskey – 3%
As is so often the case for a third-party candidate, all those Liufau votes ended up being wasted. The defense and really all of Irish fandom took a gut punch last week when word leaked out that the beloved Hawaiian had suffered a serious injury; Brian Kelly announced on Monday that it was a broken and dislocated ankle, and that Marist was definitely done for the year. Brutal.
Of the guys who will be on the field on Sunday, you spoke quite clearly in favor of Kyle Hamilton. He’s a preseason All-American basically everywhere and widely expected to be a high first round draft pick, so no surprises here. The staff loves him too to the tune of 84% of their votes; MTA picked up 8% and Kurt Hinish picked up the last 8%.
Which unit will provide the play of the year?
- Offense – 42%
- Defense – 54%
- Special Teams – 4%
This was almost exactly flipped last year, with 52% choosing the offense and 44% choosing the defense. (That other consistent 4% is very likely composed of former kickers and punters – you know we know who you are.)
The staff was even less convinced of potential displays of offensive prowess, with 67% tabbing the defense versus just 25% for the offense and 8% for special teams.
Who will lead the team in touchdowns from scrimmage?
- Kyren Williams – 74%
- Michael Mayer – 11%
- Kevin Austin – 2%
- The field – 13%
Kyren feels like a very safe bet here given that he led the team last year with 14, and that you would think the nine scored by the second place guy (Ian Book) will probably go mostly to running backs. But who knows! The composition of the receiving corps last year is so different from what it seems to be this year, plus of course we have all the offensive line upheaval to factor in. So it’s anyone’s guess, basically.
The staff felt similarly about the two main guys, with 66% picking Williams and 17% picking Mayer. The remaining 17% went to the field, though, so no love for KA4.
Who will lead the team in receiving yards?
- Kevin Austin – 53%
- Michael Mayer – 22%
- The field – 25%
Who will lead the team in receptions?
- Michael Mayer – 74%
- Kevin Austin – 16%
- The field – 10%
You overwhelmingly favor the super soph tight end to pace the team in catches, but the long-waiting-to-break-out senior freak receiver to pace the team in yards. I actually voted for Austin for both, because I think if he’s healthy all season he’s going to nail this down pretty easily. But the reader vote combo is a very reasonable position too.
67% of the staff took Austin to lead in yards with 17% taking Mayer; like you, it flipped with receptions, with 92% for Mayer and 8% for Austin.
Michael Mayer to opposing linebackers
Who will lead the team in sacks?
- Isaiah Foskey – 31%
- Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa – 25%
- Marist Liufau – 19%
- Jordan Botelho – 6%
- Drew White – 2%
- The field – 17%
Foskey is the leading returning sack producer, so a vote for him makes sense. He only had 4.5 though, and two of those came against Duke and South Florida when he was unblocked, so a vote for someone else makes sense too. MTA has some promise and has shifted out to defensive end, which should give him more opportunities. Liufau is… Sigh.
Botelho is arguably the most physically apt player on the roster for rushing the passer – he just needs to put it all together and stay in control. Drew White, man, don’t sleep on him. He had only three fewer tackles for loss in 2019-20 than Khalid Kareem did in 2018-19. He’s deceptively good (lol) at getting through the line of scrimmage.
The staff broke out as 33% for Foskey, 25% for MTA, 8% for Botelho, 8% for Liufau, and 25% for the field.
Who will lead the team in interceptions?
- Kyle Hamilton – 55%
- Clarence Lewis – 16%
- Houston Griffith – 15%
- Cam Hart – 8%
- The field – 6%
The main question here is probably how well other teams will be able to avoid Hamilton. If the answer is “not well,” I would expect him to run away with this. 50% of the staff took Hamilton, 33% took Lewis, 8% Griffith, and 8% the field.
Who will be the most impactful true freshman whose name does not rhyme with Snake Disher?
- WR/PR Lorenzo Styles – 60%
- OG Rocco Spindler – 12%
- RB Logan Diggs – 8%
- WR Deion Colzie – 7%
- K Josh Bryan – 3%
- QB Tyler Buchner – 2%
- The field – 8%
If starting LT Blake Fisher was an option, no doubt 100% of votes would’ve been cast for him. Too easy. Forget this season – if he stays healthy he could be the most impactful true freshman the Irish have had in a very, very long time. Styles feels like a good roll of the dice given his electric ability in the open field and his apparent closeness to actually being on that field – in the season’s first official depth chart he was listed second behind Braden Lenzy at one outside receiver spot.
Spindler also made that depth chart, so good work by all of you. Diggs and Colzie have wowed in practice and could make a dent or at least an appearance or two. Bryan did pretty well in camp and provides some insurance for veteran Jon Doerer. Tyler Buchner… should really redshirt this year. Let’s hope.
The staff again voted similarly, with 67% choosing Styles, 25% Spindler, and 8% the field.
Over/Under
4.5 wins in first 6 games (@ Florida State, Toledo, Purdue, Wisconsin [neutral site], Cincinnati, @ Virginia Tech)
- Readers: 92% over, 8% under
- Staff: 100% over
5.5 wins in final 6 games (USC, North Carolina, Navy, @ Virginia, Georgia Tech, @ Stanford)
- Readers: 36% over, 64% under
- Staff: 25% over, 75% under
Love the confidence early. Less in love with how dramatically it faded… When I was putting this survey together, I had a feeling 10-2 was going to be a very popular season prediction. So how do we get to those 10 wins? Clearly the overwhelming consensus is that the Irish will at least split with Wisconsin and Cincinnati in the first half of the season – which is interesting to me, because I think those are the two toughest teams on our schedule.
By the same token, there’s likely a strong belief that the Irish will at best split with USC and North Carolina. I see both of them as somewhat overhyped (USC more so than North Carolina, but still), so that surprises me a little. Here’s a novel concept: Let’s play some games and see what happens!
Please, please, please let the Stanford game resemble this scene. I would mention other opponents, but I don’t want to tempt fate too much.
+190 point differential (post-2016 average: +187)
- Readers: 54% over, 46% under
- Staff: 33% over, 67% under
Cautious optimism from the readers and decided pessimism from the staff. About half of the schedule features defenses that one might reasonably assume will give the Irish a chance to run it up. Achieving this line will rest heavily on how well the team fares against the other half.
32.5 30+ yard scrimmage plays (post 2016 average: 32.3)
- Readers: 65% over, 35% under
- Staff: 46% over, 55% under
This number would be roughly in the top half nationally in any given year since 2016. So hitting it isn’t necessarily remarkable in a national context, but it would say something about how explosive Notre Dame’s offense is compared to its own recent history. The Irish had 44 such plays in the 2017 season, which ranked 6th nationally; they don’t have to repeat that to be good this year, but if they can get to 35+ it would say very good things about where Toonces has taken the offense.
Braden Lenzy vs. Kevin Stepherson’s pro-rated 2017 production (39 touches, 707 yards)
- Readers: 36% over, 64% under
- Staff: 42% over, 58% under
KJ played 8 games in 2017; he missed the first four on double secret probation for definitely not toking up, sparkled in the next eight, then missed the bowl game after the shoplifting incident. He still logged 19 catches for 359 yards and led the team in receiving touchdowns – in a receiving corps that included Equanimeous St. Brown, Chase Claypool, and Miles Boykin. He would’ve led in receiving yards by a comfortable margin had he played a full season. Dammit, Kevin…
Anyway, where were we? Right. In addition to his receiving production, Stepherson also had 5 carries for 76 yards. When he was on the field, he was a legitimate game-wrecking talent for defensive coordinators to contend with. The 2021 Irish don’t need Lenzy to be that good, but if he’s “we can’t focus on Austin and Mayer and Kyren too much or this guy will kill us” good, watch out. KJ’s what-if 2017 production would be a good benchmark for that type of impact.
For me, the formation of this answer really requires two questions: Do you think Lenzy will stay healthy all season? Do you think he’s good enough to get to the mark? Fun fact: If you take his own 2019 production and pro-rate it for the number of touches KJ would’ve had in a full 2017, you get 738 yards. Hmm.
33% third down conversion defense (last year: 31.4%, 11th in FBS)
- Readers: 56% over, 44% under
- Staff: 67% over, 33% under
Wow, does everyone have faith in Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame lost the Butkus Award winner, both starting defensive ends, a greybeard safety, and their most experienced corner… AND their defensive coordinator. And the majority of the audience expects them to improve on this elite number, which was less than a quarter point behind Clemson. Alright folks. Let’s do it.
3,000 passing yards by Jack Coan (Ian Book last season: 2,830 in 12 games)
- Readers: 63% over, 37% under
- Staff: 42% over, 58% under
Presumably those who took the under here believe the Irish will feature a very conservative, run-heavy attack with “game manager” Jack Coan under center. That’s a reasonable position; in his last full season as a starter at Wisconsin, one of the most run-heavy teams in college football, he threw for 2,727 yards in 14 games. See, the thing is though, they’re one of the most run-heavy teams in college football, and I suspect Tommy Rees will have a run-favored but more balanced attack this year.
If the Wake Forest game hadn’t been canceled last year, Book almost certainly would’ve hit this mark. He did hit it in 2019 (3,034 yards), and he would’ve in 2018 too if he had been the starter for the full season (2,628 yards in 9 starts). I feel pretty good about the over here.
2.5 consensus All-Americans for Notre Dame (first or second team)
- Readers: 49% over, 51% under
- Staff: 42% over, 58% under
So, point of order here first: officially, there is no consensus or unanimous status for anything other than first team. [Stephen A voice] HOWEVER… We’re all able to use our eyes, right? If any of Notre Dame’s players make at least three of the recognized selectors’ second teams, we’ll unofficially consider them consensus second team All Americans. Because we can, that’s why.
Clearly I couldn’t set the line at 1.5 or you would’ve all taken the over, as Kyle Hamilton is an absolute gimme here. There’s a decent chance that Kyren Williams will work his way into the picture too; in fact he made the AP preseason first team as an all-purpose player. The big question here is who else might crash his way into the national consciousness.
Will Cain Madden, a second team All American last year, garner similar accolades on a bigger stage this year? Will Jarrett Patterson, who has also received some preseason All America attention, be there at the end of the year? Will another defender emerge? What about Kevin Austin? If he’s healthy all year and has the impact everyone who has ever seen him practice thinks he can, could he get some votes? Fascinating stuff.
4.5 announcer chuckles over Kyren Williams undressing someone in the open field
- Readers: 62% over, 38% under
- Staff: 83% over, 17% under
If Tony Dungy was still in the booth this line would be at least two points higher.
Yes, Doc. Yes it is.
14.5 mentions of Jack Coan’s lacrosse background
- Readers: 74% over, 26% under
- Staff: 83% over, 17% under
“You know Mike, Coan is more athletic than people give him credit for – he was a highly regarded youth lacrosse player.” “Is that so Drew? Wow.”
You know it’s coming.
19.5 mentions of how Coan always wanted to go to Notre Dame
- Readers: 69% over (nice), 31% under
- Staff: 67% over, 33% under
Hey, did you know that Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett always wanted to go to Notre Dame? How about Northwestern’s current coach and former linebacker Pat Fitzgerald? Or former Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly? Remember that? You know who else wanted to go to Notre Dame, but then he didn’t, but then he did?
10.5 in-game camera shots of an exasperated Brian Kelly
- Readers: 67% over, 33% under
- Staff: 42% over, 58% under
Yoga-Loving BK is a much more chill dude than Purple-Faced BK was, but in a season that will thrust many new faces into prominent roles… Hey, who knows?
BK accepting the media’s challenge on whether he can get purpler
Prop Bets
We’ll see the first Power 5 coach canned in…
- September: Readers 12%, Staff 33%
- October: Readers 55%, Staff 58%
- November: Readers 30%, Staff 8%
- December: Readers 3%, Staff 0%
After Nebraska’s very bad showing against Illinois in the opener, followed by fourth-year head coach Scott Frost saying this:
Frost on the offense at Illinois:
“About half of our game plan was out the window when they lined up how they did.”
— Steve Marik (@Steve_Marik) August 30, 2021
…do any of the 88% of you who took something after September want to re-cast your votes?
That first hot seat ejection will be…
- Scott Frost: Readers 21%, Staff 33%
- Justin Fuente: Readers 18%, Staff 8%
- Herm Edwards: Readers 17%, Staff 8%
- Dino Babers: Readers 12%, Staff 25%
- Clay Helton: Readers 5%, Staff 0%
- Jim Harbaugh: Readers 4%, Staff 8%
- Jeff Brohm: Readers 3%, Staff 0%
- The field: Readers 20%, Staff 17%
To the 79% of you who voted for someone other than Scott Frost: See above.
The first Power 5 COVID-related forefeit will occur in the…
- SEC: Readers 38%, Staff 17%
- Pac 12: Readers 25%, Staff 25%
- Big Ten: Readers 17%, Staff 8%
- Big 12: Readers 12%, Staff 33%
- ACC: Readers 8%, Staff 17%
Y’all are sleeping on the Big 12 biiiiiiig time, and severely underestimating how much value SEC country puts on football. The Big 12 is a train wreck in all kinds of ways, and lest we forget, they had multiple COVID cancellations last year before the season even started. The Pac 12 is right there with them administratively.
I mean it just has to be the Big 12 in this position the way the last month has gone for them.
In what week?
- Week 0: Readers <1%, Staff 0%
- Week 1: Readers 10%, Staff 17%
- Week 2: Readers 40%, Staff 42%
- Week 3: Readers 32%, Staff 8%
- Week 4: Readers 3%, Staff 0%
- Later: Readers 14%, Staff 33%
Roll the die, I guess, although I strongly suspect (as do most of the voters, clearly) that we won’t have to wait too long.
Any Notre Dame player will finish higher in the Heisman voting than Ian Book did last year…
- True: Readers 36%, Staff 36%
- False: Readers 64%, Staff 64%
STOP THE PRESSES! WE ARE PERFECTLY IN SYNC! Ahem… The Heisman futures board at VegasInsider, which does a consensus calculation for the major Vegas books, has Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler as the current Heisman favorite at +650. The first non-quarterback is Texas running back Bijan Robinson at +3000. The first Notre Dame player is Jack Coan at +10000, which is the same as LSU cornerback Derek Stingley, and the only other Notre Dame player is Kyren Williams at +15000, which is the same as Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa.
Soooo… Probably a decent move to bet against this one. Maybe if Kyle Hamilton plays out of his mind all season, or maybe if Kyren goes wild for a 12-0 Irish team. But it’ll be an uphill climb.
More scrimmage yards for…
- Kyren Williams and Braden Lenzy: Readers 51%, Staff 42%
- Kevin Austin and Michael Mayer: Readers 34%, Staff 42%
- Chris Tyree and Kevin Austin: Readers 15%, Staff 16%
Like the Lenzy vs. Stepherson question above, much of this boils down to a mix of health and talent. If Lenzy is healthy all year, he and Kyren seem like a pretty solid bet. Post-2016, the top runner and third receiver have combined for around 1,800 yards on average. Meanwhile, whether you take the top two receivers or the top receiver and second runner, the result is pretty much the same – each combo has averaged around 1,500 yards.
Jon Doerer will overtake Allen Pinkett as Notre Dame’s second all-time leading scorer (needs 111 points, had 93 last year and 108 in 2019).
- Readers: 35% true, 65% false
- Staff: 17% true, 83% false
If you look at Doerer’s 2019 you might think this line is reasonably ambitious. If you consider that his 2019 was a Notre Dame single-season record and that he struggled mightily in the second half of last season (11/14 in the first seven games, 4/9 in the next five), it might feel extremely ambitious. His leg has never been a question; the unknown is whether he will settle back into the consistency that served him so well through the first Clemson game.
I think it’s possible. I also think if Doerer hits this it will likely mean very good things for the season.
The final season stats will include more…
- Pass attempts by Drew Pyne: Readers 47%, Staff 50%
- Rush attempts by Tyler Buchner: Readers 53%, Staff 50%
Post-2016 pass attempts by non-starting QBs by year: 25, 6, 17, 6. With Coan all but certain to leave after this season, Kelly and Rees really, really need to get that number up this season. I do think Buchner will play in at least four games this year, and when he gets in they’ll probably run him. Whether Pyne will outpace those opportunities with his arm, I don’t know.
Notre Dame will have a top 20 SP+ offense and defense (last year: 19th offense, 20th defense).
- True: 56% Readers, 58% Staff
- False: 44% Readers, 42% Staff
A decent majority of us expect the quality of play to more or less hold serve versus last year, despite losing a lot of production on both sides of the ball, the defensive coordinator moving on to a head coaching position, and facing a tougher schedule than last year’s quasi-ACC-member slate. Hmm.
I promise you, I really am the resident optimist here.
Notre Dame’s highest ranked end-of-season opponent per the playoff committee will be…
- #12 Wisconsin: Readers 32%, Staff 25%
- #8 Cincinnati: Readers 28%, Staff 25%
- #10 North Carolina: Readers 24%, Staff 25%
- #15 USC: Readers 17%, Staff 25%
Those are current AP rankings… Interesting that the readers have more faith in Cincinnati than they do in North Carolina, if only marginally. For what it’s worth I do too, but I’ll admit I don’t have a great feel for it. For those of you who voted for USC, I kind of wonder if you’re aware that Clay Helton is still there. No backsies though (for you, or for USC for the Helton hire).
Notre Dame’s highest ranked end-of-season win (not counting a potential bowl game) will be…
- Wisconsin: Readers 29%, Staff 25%
- The field: Readers 71%, Staff 75%
One way to read this is that the 90% of you (and 83% of us) who predict at least one loss overwhelmingly slant towards believing that Wisconsin will be on the wrong side of the Irish ledger this year. Another way to read this is that since 68% of you (and 75% of us) don’t think Wisconsin will be 2021’s highest ranked opponent when all the dust settles, there’s no bright line between this and the season projections.
Anyway, Go Irish, Beat Badgers, is what I say.
Oh, Wisconsin. I don’t think you’re getting the opponent you think you are.
Wrapping Up
Last year, despite losing a game to COVID, Notre Dame logged a fourth consecutive season with 10 wins for the first time in school history. Yes, they didn’t regularly play 12 games a year until the 1990’s, but still, that’s a remarkable run. We’re sports fans, and the nature of sports fandom is that there’s always something wrong. As Lou said, first people complain you’re not winning enough, then that you’re not winning all of them, then that you’re winning all of them but not the right way. We’re a perpetually unsatisfied bunch. And that’s fine, that’s part of being invested in the team’s fortunes and part of the entertainment value to us. Still…
43-8 over the last four seasons – only Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma, in that order, have posted higher win percentages over the last four seasons. Two playoff appearances, joining those same four teams as the only programs ever to make multiple playoff appearances. Big Q and Glinch, Love and Pride, Coney and Tranquill, Book and Wimbush all buddy cop movie casting candidates. Mapletron. Adams. Mayer. Gilman. Wuuuuuuuu. Tyree. BOYKIN IS GOING IN! Tremble, Destroyer of Wills. Avery Davis, the consummate team player. It’s been a really fun ride with a really fun bunch of kids to pull for, and I hope we all can take a step back from the routine lamentations of a sports fan to just appreciate how enjoyable it has been on the vast majority of fall Saturdays to follow this program.
There are a lot of questions for this team, probably as many as I can remember heading into a season for quite some time. On the other hand, there also seems to be a plethora of really fun answers, such that the questions give way more to excitement for what might become than to concern over what might befall. Will I feel the same way in November? Who knows! But for now the sun rises on another college football season, and it is warm and bright and glorious, and it brings with it all the hope and elation of a fresh new day.
GAME. ON.
The majority of us seem to agree that this will not be another perfect regular season. My biggest question is: will we continue to play very few close games? We could always count on Book to pull out the few tight games we did play, but man, the past few years have just been way more relaxed than the earlier BK years. It’s been nice to have the games in cruise control by the 3rd quarter. I’m not as confident we will see that this year, with a new QB, somewhat young O-Line, and questions at DB. I’m still expecting a strong record this year, but perhaps with quite a few nail-biters thrown in.
I think the talent gap at this point is pretty substantial in most of the games. If any of Florida State, Toledo, Purdue, Georgia Tech, Navy, and, yes, Stanford can make the game remotely competitive, something will have gone very, very wrong. Notre Dame is going to be the most talented team in every regular season game it plays this year, but it’s going to be particularly unbalanced in those games. Even Florida State, who is waaaay down from just a few years ago.
There’s a big talent gap with Virginia and Virginia Tech, but both of those are road games and they’ve had a penchant for making things weird with Notre Dame lately. So while we should run away with both of them, I could see either of them getting sticky.
The Big Four loom as significant tests, of course. I like the Irish in all of them but a sweep seems too ambitious, which is why I voted for 11-1. I have a hard time finding many losses beyond that.
Brendan. Brendan, Brendan, Brendan.
It’s September 2nd, we still have three whole days for unbridled off-season optimism. Plus we have to go 12-0 to set up our Orange Bowl showdown with Brock “Noted Notre Dame Killer” Purdy and ISU.
Oh man, a Camping World Bowl rematch would be so sad, lol… Stew Mandel has us meeting Georgia in the Peach Bowl, which would be off the wall bonkers. Sign me up. CBS Sports has us meeting LSU in the Peach, which, eh; I feel like a win over Georgia would bring much more credibility. Sporting News also has us in the Peach against an SEC team, but this time it’s Texas A&M. Could be fun! Yahoo also has us facing LSU but in the Fiesta.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura and USA Today all have us in the Peach – Schlabach against Wisconsin, Bonagura against Cincy, and USA Today against North Carolina. Which kind of makes me wonder if they understand how any of this works?
Athlon has us in the Cheez-It Bowl vs. Texas, which would be even sadder than the Camping World rematch.
That’s how I thought of it too. We can/should beat everyone but it’s just likely we’ll lose a good game to someone in the top 4 opponents, so 11-1.
I am in the 10-2 record camp.
Optimistic but not blind to the games we could lose.
As I think it has been said before, consistently stay in the 10+ win area and then we will catch our breaks (dogs & cats living together, Saban taking a “me-year” to go golf in Maui, ND O and D achieve a simultaneous outrageous year) and break through.
I said the defense would have over 33% 3rd down conversion percentage, meaning a higher percentage, say 38%. So actually worse than last year, as opposed to over performing last year. People might not be as optimistic as it looks.
Right, that’s the same way I’m thinking of it. I’m surprised that 44% of the readers think we’ll post a better mark this year. Perhaps “less pessimistic” is a better way to put it than “more optimistic.”
I mean, if we do it, great. I don’t remember my vote here but I think I took the over, because it seems like a lot to ask with several new faces on D and a new DC, even if he does have a custom two-piece pool cue.
Ok, so I did interpret it correctly. You being surprised at the optimism made me think you thought the larger portion of people picked “better.” But now it all makes sense that you are just surprised 44% think the D will be better.
i’m glad you asked and got it clarified. I had the same confusion.
One of the interesting things about ND’s schedule this year is that the Big Four opponents all have ridiculously easy schedules themselves outside of their tilt with ND.
Since we’re going to beat all four of those teams I took 11-1 UNC to be the highest ranked opponent at the end of the season, ahead of one loss UC, and assuming the other teams would stumble again in deeper conferences.
I still think USC is the most dangerous team on the schedule. Explosiveness at WR can be a great equalizer in a game against an otherwise over-matched opponent. Even when those WR are coached by Clay Helton.
I think USC *can* be the most dangerous team on the schedule, but I don’t think they *will* be. Without looking it up, I feel pretty confident that Drake London is the best WR we’ll face all year. UNC’s Josh Downs could be in the conversation too, but man, London is a beast. Slovis is who he is – he’ll pick you apart if he has time. That “if he has time” is their fatal flaw though – they’re 2007 ND bad on the OL. Also their interior DL is made of chewing gum and tumbleweeds.
Chewing gum can be pretty fierce when it’s minty and you drink some really cold water while chewing.
I’ll agree with that. USC seems like a random event generator, putting a scare into some teams but never really running away from the ones they should, and ending up with a meh record. Last season they made the conference title game, but they barely eked out those six wins. Almost like they have some talented players but really bad coaching and end up playing up or down to every team they face.
Ahem..
Eventus stultorum magister. The gif has it wrong.
Experience is the teacher of fools, which makes more sense than juventus (youth).
Yes, I came across that very discussion online, and I definitely agree that eventus makes more sense. In fact in that context juventus doesn’t make any sense at all, so it’s kind of odd that it’s even a discussion. Actually I think most of the translations there are kinda clumsy, but it’s the only version of that gif that has them so it’s better than nothing.
I would do more of a dynamic translation like so:
Doc: In vino veritas. In wine there is truth.
Johnny: Age quod agis. Game on, lunger.
Doc: Credat Judaeus Appela, non ego. Well bless your heart, you can pretend to be intelligent.
Johnny: Eventus stultorum magister. You want to find out the hard way?
Doc: Requeiscat in pace. OK, but it’s your funeral buddy.
I always loved Doc’s sudden fixed stare on the “age quod agis” line. The real Doc definitely knew Latin and some Greek; the real Johnny almost certainly knew none of either, but the dramatic license to make them intellectual foils makes that part of the story so much better.
Also, I had to look this up, but Apella was a character created by Horace who was extremely gullible. So in a way that line is a triple challenge to Johnny – (1) it’s more Latin, (2) it’s mocking his professed sophistication – sure, that dummy Apella might believe you know something, but I don’t, and (3) it’s a deeper cultural cut because not only does Johnny have to know Latin to get it, he has to be familiar enough with the works of Horace to know who Apella is.
I also love that they didn’t subtitle the scene. If you understand all of it yourself, great. If you don’t, you get the same experience everyone else in the room had – “I don’t know what they’re saying but I 100% understand that the tension level is going way up.” Biehn and Kilmer were excellent there.
I really like the movie, in case you couldn’t tell.
It was a great scene where the literal and symbolic conversation play off each other perfectly.
I had to dig and find the Horace quote to understand out why everyone was dissing this poor guy Apella. Ringo volleying it back with The Livy quote was a good answer to the literary challenge while still upping the insult.
The final cherry op top for me is the “We don’t want trouble in any language” isolating Ringo and Doc from all the other characters assembled at the table and setting them up as the most interesting protagonist-antagonist pair in the story.
100% agree. That scene sets them on a different plane from everyone else. You got a little bit of that earlier with Johnny correcting the Mexican guy on what the priest said, and with all of Doc’s witticisms, but that scene sets them together with each other and well apart from everyone else.
As the resident pessimist I’ll say it: the people who think this team is going 12-0 are, in fact, delusional. I was very pleased when we got Coan, but even I don’t think he’s that good.
To be clear, I voted for the over on 8.5 too… but 8-4 or worse is *way* more likely than 12-0 with this team. In terms of talent, this team is very has strong 2014/2019 vibes (which were each closer to 8-4 than 12-0), and this is a year where the average team is going to be better than most years thanks to covid eligibility, which we didn’t benefit all that much from overall.
What I’m saying is folks who think this is a playoff team should probably temper expectations a lot bit.
I don’t think playoffs are very likely, but either end of that (8-4/worse or 12-0) feels very extreme right now. Given inertia that Notre Dame: A) doesn’t lose to unranked teams and B) also doesn’t lose at home, I can see why undefeated is a more popular choice at this point. If those areas hold it’s at least 11-1. Won’t be that easy of course, because one or both of those streaks will have to end eventually. But we’re talking a program with undefeated regular seasons 2 out of the last 3 years, so general fan optimism is understandable, IMO.
For the more defined pessimistic take, I would have framed it that 9-3 (only 8% of respondents) is statistically a lot more likely than the polling results for 11-1 (a whopping 37%). A lot still has to go right for an 11-1 year.
I don’t really see the extreme of 8-4 or 12-0 coming into play. We know what this team is, they’re reliable and stable enough to figure that with this schedule is almost certainly 10-2, plus or minus a game. More are going to the sunnier side of that right now, but for reasonable enough logic.
Yeah I voted 9-3. In order of likelihood, I’d say: 9-3, 10-2, 11-1 … [huge dropoff] 8-4… [huge dropoff], 7-5 or worse (all it could take are early Coan and Hamilton season-ending injuries), 12-0.
I’ll be happy to eat these words later, but it seems pretty obvious to me that this just isn’t a 12-0 team. We’re playing too many games with a 60-80% probability of winning. It makes sense that the computer simulations show 8.5-10 wins.
Yeah, I try not to get too worked up over the advanced stats projected wins. If you project a 90% win probability in every game – for reference, FPI has ND’s win probability against Toledo at 89.2% – you get 10.8 projected wins over a 12-game season, even though losing any of those games would be a stunning upset. For the most part it’s simple probability math that’s pulling those numbers down.
I do think there’s something wrong with how SP+ sees Notre Dame for whatever reason – something in the factor weights seems to devalue ND’s play relative to other teams and other models. That 0.5ish projected win bearishness versus other models is not unusual for them; in fact they’re often pessimistic in strange places.
All of that said, a probability-based projected win number is very different from an O/U line at a sportsbook. I would be beyond shocked, even with a couple of catastrophic injuries, if we’re under 9 wins. We have 5-6 opponents where the talent advantage is so big that I would feel pretty good about rolling out our entire second unit on both sides of the ball and still winning.
Consider this: There are five players starting for Power 5 schools this year who transferred out of Notre Dame, one because he didn’t win a starting job, four because they couldn’t crack the two deep:
Granted, Grunhard’s situation is a little different, but still… Also, Michael Young is starting for Cincinnati and Jonathan Jones is starting for Toledo. There are a number of other recent transfers who are in the two deep for Power 5 programs. The talent level at Notre Dame at this point is such that guys who are third or fourth string here leave and end up starting at legitimate FBS programs. And Kansas.
Does that mean we’ll roll over everyone? No. And if the O/U was set at 9.5 I would probably stay away from it, because weird stuff can happen. But 8.5? If I was a betting man I would hammer that.
Yes, I have actually put some money on the ND over. It’s a weird line. And I agree we could sustain some front-seven defensive injuries or injuries plural at RB, but we’re paper-thin in the defensive backfield and, IMO, at quarterback.
We’ve had fairly good injury luck over the last few years, and at some point that will run out. If this is the year that turns, we could have a pretty rough 5 game stretch through the end of October and then have a team that truly has little to play for in November.
Fair. I think we could take one or two injuries in the secondary to someone other than Hamilton, but nothing more than that. I know you don’t trust Pyne much; I think he’d be serviceable, but who knows. Certainly sophomore Pyne would be a significant step down from grad student Coan.
I’m not saying 8-4 is impossible, just that I think a *lot* of stuff would have to go wrong for us to get there.
I assume Bama will be 12-0 every year until I see a clock hit 0 with them behind. But that said, with their schedule, that will be pretty tough. Clemson/tOSU are the only teams where 12-0 looks likely.
That said 12-0 isn’t really delusional given our schedule. In a vacuum, we should be the more talented and better coached team in every game. At least one sports book has us as favorites in all but UNC, which is a pick-em. I think 12-0 is extremely unlikely, but it is far from delusional.
I am firmly in the 10-2 camp this year. With 9-3 and 11-1 being equally likely. But I think 12-0 is just as likely as 8-4. Without having anything to do with ND. When considering the variance, you have to consider the variance of the other factors contributing to the outcome.
Every year there are hyped up pre-season teams that end up mediocre. I think it is more likely that at least one of the top 4 teams on our schedule won’t live up to their hype, than all of those teams living up to it (and not getting unlucky against us). There will be some surprise teams, but I think the talent level of the rest of our schedule will keep anyone from being threats even with great seasons.
Now picking ISU to go 12-0, that would be delusional…
I think Clemson is going to lose to Georgia. Betting the under on their 11.5 wins line seems like a fun bet that might pay off immediately (and if it doesn’t you can cheer against them all season in hopes they blow one).
Rumors swirling that there will be COVID losses for both teams – kind of moves that line into “untouchable” status if true.
Ha. Forgot about Clemson’s first game. Definitely would not have put them at likely to go undefeated if I remembered they were playing Georgia (although I did think they would win it, and thought they were possibly the better team during the game, despite their OL being trash). Hope you bet that under.
Following up on this… ISD put out their staff predictions today. Friend of the Stripes Jamie Uyeyama called 11-1 with a loss to UNC. Matt Freeman said 11-1 with a loss to Virginia. Christian McCollum said 11-1 with a loss to Wisconsin. John Brice and noted optimist (lol) Mike Frank said 12-0.
I can’t let myself believe 12-0 yet. Not doing it. But…
Yeah after this weekend’s results I’m thinking our schedule, particularly the 5-game stretch, may not quite be what I thought it was… I’d now say 12-0 feels more likely than 7-5 or worse.
And I really wish I had actually bet that Clemson under 11.5 wins.
And then last night happened, and I’m kind of right back where I was. There was a nice 12 hour stretch where I had really high hopes for the season. Now I am right back where I started. Law of averages I guess. Some will be better, some will be worse.
This is all overreaction to one week. But it pains me so much that USC looks like they might be the toughest team on our schedule.