A Shift in the Landscape

Well, all quiet on all fronts, really… Once again, as has been the case since the early signing period was instituted a few cycles ago, Notre Dame’s recruiting class was all but wrapped up in December. In fact everyone’s recruiting class was more or less wrapped up in December; of the 173 prospects with known Notre Dame offers, only 14 remained uncommitted when the early signing period ended. Coming into this morning, only four the top 100 prospects in the 247 Composite remained uncommitted. I don’t have historical data handy, but you can rest assured that there used to be many, many more kids who announced in February.

The early signing period was designed to take pressure off kids who wanted to be done with the mayhem of recruiting. Stories abound of kids having to use multiple burner phones, getting texts and calls all hours of the day and night, facing high-pressure tactics from multiple coaches. In all sincerity, shielding kids from that is a noble goal and one I think is worth supporting in some way. What we’ve seen happen in reality though is that the pressure has just moved up in a kid’s timeline. Spring used to be a time for kids to get into the recruiting grind, get out on the road and see a few places, and start to feel their way through what might be important for them. Now, spring is what fall used to be – many prospects use their official visits in the spring and not only have a decision made by the summer, but feel substantial pressure to have a decision made by the summer.

We also saw a massive unintended consequence this past season. The decision to fire a head coach is often difficult to distill to a single reason, particularly the timing of that decision. It would  then be an oversimplification to say that the early signing period caused a rash of early terminations, but it was absolutely a factor. Clay Helton was fired two games into the season. Ed Oregon was informed that he wouldn’t be back halfway through the season. Gary Patterson walked after his administration reportedly had a similar conversation with him on Halloween weekend. A couple of weeks later, Jimmy Lake and Justin Fuente got their walking papers. Dan Mullen was unceremoniously dumped a week later. We hadn’t made it to Thanksgiving yet and the USC, Florida, LSU, Washington, and Virginia Tech jobs were all open.

Why does the timing of all those moves have anything to do with the early signing period? Simple – because athletics departments don’t want to be stuck in the situation Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and others were in. With just days to go until the early signing period, the Irish and the Sooners had to replace head coaches lured by those LSU and USC openings. A misstep by either could have been catastrophic for the 2022 class. Both programs made the right kind of headlines, Notre Dame by promoting beloved wunderkind Marcus Freeman and Oklahoma by stealing favorite-son-in-hindsight Brent Venables away from Clemson. Had either school flubbed it, or had their search dragged beyond the early signing period, there was a real probability their 2022 class would fall apart. That’s the fear that drove USC, Florida, LSU, Washington, and Virginia Tech to pull the ripcord midseason.

A few key corners of the college football world have started to discuss the possibility of doing away with or changing the early signing period. This isn’t just about coaches or schools either – the massive upheaval we saw on the coaching carousel this season isn’t good for current college players or recruits. The early signing period that was designed to make recruits’ lives easier may have ultimately made everyone’s life harder, and may be on its way out. It’ll be a very interesting thing to track.

Irish Eyes Are (Mostly) Smiling

And now we turn to more specifically Notre Dame topics… Marcus Freeman made his presence felt as a recruiter immediately when he was hired. He’s the reason the Irish even looked at Jaylen Sneed, let alone landed him – especially notable since Sneed is the first defensive 247 Composite five-star the Irish have landed since signing Jaylon Smith and Max Redfield in the 2013 class. While it didn’t ultimately work out, he’s the reason Notre Dame was even in the discussion as a potential destination for borderline top 100 corner Khamauri Rogers out of Mississippi and as a potential flip for four-star Ohio State corner Jyaire Brown. He’s the reason the Irish signed unquestionably the best linebacker class in the country (#33 overall Sneed, #108 Josh Burnham, #156 Niuafe Tuihalamaka, and #309 Nolan Ziegler, all Butkus Award semifinalists). He’s the reason Tyson Ford reneged on his silent commitment to Oklahoma.

More indirectly, Tommy Rees has talked about how Freeman’s energy as a recruiter makes you want to match him competitively. We definitely saw that in several areas of the Irish staff this cycle and should see it more in the 2023 cycle with a full Freeman-approved staff pulling the strings. For all the talk of how much better the defense recruited in ’22, the offense was actually marginally better in terms of recruit quality. Each side of the ball signed 10 recruits; the average 247 Composite rating for the offense was 0.9247, while for the defense it was 0.9231. Of course there’s a quantity discussion to be had too; the average Composite score is higher with, say, Amorion Walker not in the class, but it’s hard to say it’s a better group without him. Ditto Devin Moore and the defense.

Regardless, this was a very good class – the second highest Composite average post-Weis, just barely behind that 2013 class – and the future looks very bright indeed with Freeman running the show. I think Al Washington and Chansi Stuckey will prove to be substantial upgrades as recruiters, and Deland McCullough will be at least an even trade with his predecessor. Both rumored finalists for the defensive coordinator position – Bengals LB coach Al Golden and Minnesota DC Joe Rossi – have reputations as plus recruiters. Whoever the tight end coach ends up being will be a plus recruiter. (UPDATE: Multiple reports from various reputable sources indicate that West Virginia TE/co-OC Gerad Parker is the guy.) And oh by the way, the 2023 class is currently ranked 2nd nationally, with five top 100 commits out of eight overall. For comparison, that’s just one short of the post-Weis era high for full class, which was set way back in 2011.

Class Rankings by Service

247 Composite: 7th (1 five-star, 16 four-stars, 4 three-stars, .9168 average rating)

247: 6th (17 four-stars, 3 three-stars, 1 two-star, 91.71 average rating)

Rivals: 6th (16 four-stars, 4 three-stars, 1 two-star, 3.71 average stars)

ESPN: ?? (17 four-stars, 3 three-stars, 81.1 average rating)

On3: 6th (1 five-star, 16 four-stars, 4 three-stars, 90.89 average rating)

ESPN, brilliantly, put their team rankings behind a paywall this year, so I have no idea what the ranking is. Bold move to put something behind a paywall that everyone else offers for free, but then they’ve put so little effort into their strategy on recruiting coverage that it’s hardly surprising. Safe to say though that the class is likely 6th to 8th there given how it ranks elsewhere.

On3 is a new service founded by Shannon Terry and currently gobbling up well-known team sites and writers, most notably former ESPN stalwart Ivan Maisel. The Notre Dame site took the Blue & Gold Illustrated name and staff from Rivals, if you’re wondering. I don’t know what they’ll amount to yet, but Terry is the guy who bought Rivals in 2001, built it into what it is, sold it to Yahoo in 2007, founded 247 Sports in 2010, built it into what it is, and sold it to CBS in 2015. Feels like it would be a good idea to bet on On3 finding success.

Also, note that transfer Brandon Joseph – more on him below – is not included in any of these rankings. The 247 Composite has Joseph’s transfer prospect rating at 0.9300, which is roughly equivalent to a “normal” top 175 prospect.

Class Composition

Here are the number of signees by position.

QB – 1
RB – 1
WR – 1
TE – 2
OL – 5
DE – 2
DT – 1
LB – 4
DB – 3+1
P – 1

The +1 at safety is Joseph, an undergrad transfer from Northwestern. Joseph was a two year starter for the Fighting Fitzes and a consensus All-American as a redshirt freshman in 2020. He dropped off a bit last year but still is a tremendous boost for the 2022 season. Either he’ll walk into a starting role or, if he doesn’t, it will mean someone else has taken a huge step forward.

The glaring issue here is obviously the light number at receiver. Notre Dame really needed three receivers in this class; they had those three in Tobias Merriweather, CJ Williams, and Amorion Walker, but lost Williams and Walker late in the cycle and weren’t able to work out a backup plan. The Walker defection was particularly galling as the family outright lied to the Irish staff for months, but on the other hand the staff wasn’t born yesterday. The receiver class being what it is was a big part of why Del Alexander was encouraged to find employment elsewhere.

Otherwise, another edge rusher might’ve been nice, maybe a second running back, but these are pretty good numbers. I would say a game-ready safety too, but the staff addressed that with the Brandon Joseph transfer.

The Super Official 18 Stripes Class Grades

As a reminder, here’s our standard grading scale for this exercise:

95-100: Truly elite prospect with All-American potential
90-94: Multi-year starter with All-conference level potential
85-89: Eventual starter with chance to play as underclassman
80-84: Raw prospect with decent potential but a couple years away from impact
75-79: Likely a backup
70-74: Reach by the coaching staff

Staff Offense Grade Defense Grade Overall Grade
Brendan 90.6 89.8 90.2
Eric 88.6 89.5 88.9
Tyler 88.7 88.6 88.6
Overall 89.3 89.3 89.2

 

I think this is the first time in all the years we’ve done this that Eric wasn’t the low man.

Offense Signees

247C 18S Grade Player City/State Ht/Wt Position Stars
0.9550 92 Aamil Wagner Dayton, OH 6-6/265 OT * * * * *
0.9514 94 Tobias Merriweather Camas, WA 6-4/185 WR * * * * *
0.9405 91 Billy Schrauth Fond Du Lac, WI 6-5/300 IOL * * * * *
0.9380 88 Joey Tanona Zionsville, IN 6-5/295 OT * * * * *
0.9271 95 Eli Raridon West Des Moines, IA 6-6/228 TE * * * * *
0.9210 90 Jadarian Price Denison, TX 5-11/180 RB * * * * *
0.9154 86 Ty Chan Groton, MA 6-6/300 OT * * * * *
0.8962 84 Steve Angeli Oradell, NJ 6-3/215 QB * * * * *
0.8951 87 Holden Staes Atlanta, GA 6-4/230 TE * * * * *
0.8789 86 Ashton Craig Lawrenceburg, IN 6-5/283 OT * * * * *

Defense Signees

247C 18S Grade Player City/State Ht/Wt Position Stars
0.9836 96 Jaylen Sneed Hilton Head Island, SC 6-2/210 LB * * * * *
0.9551 93 Joshua Burnham Traverse City, MI 6-4/225 LB * * * *
0.9520 94 Tyson Ford St. Louis, MO 6-5/260 DL * * * *
0.9377 86 Niuafe Tuihalamaka Misson Hills, CA 6-2/235 LB * * * *
0.9300 90 Brandon Joseph College Station, TX 6-1/185 S * * * *
0.9293 93 Aiden Gobaira Chantilly, VA 6-4.5/230 DL * * * *
0.9164 91 Jaden Mickey Corona, CA 5-11.5/175 CB * * * *
0.8984 87 Nolan Ziegler Grand Rapids, MI 6-4/210 LB * * * *
0.8958 86 Benjamin Morrison Phoenix, AZ 6-0/175 CB * * * *
0.8830 83 Jayden Bellamy Oradell, NJ 5-11/175 CB * * *
0.8796 84 Donovan Hinish Pittsburgh, PA 6-2/275 DL * * *

Specialist Signees

247C 18S Grade Player City/State Ht/Wt Position Stars
0.8041 88 Bryce McFerson Indian Trail, NC 6-1/185 P * * * * *

Grading Out

Addressing Needs: C+

I felt bad giving this class such a low grade, because like I said, overall it’s a very good group that does a good job addressing most needs. The receiver situation is just so, so bad though, and really puts the roster in a bind for at least the upcoming season. It’s analogous to doing well in your AP History class otherwise but missing one test – doesn’t matter how good the rest of your performance was, that zero is going to make the final grade look uglier.

You could make an argument that an edge rusher would’ve helped, and I wouldn’t disagree with you. On the other hand, the linebacker class is more than loaded and we all think there’s a decent chance Burnham could grow into an edge player. Landing elite safety Xavier Nwankpa, who chose to stay home for Iowa, would’ve pushed this class to another level, but the DB class as is has some players.

Home Run Factor: B+

The linebacker group and offensive line group are each among the best in the nation, with a credible argument for being the actual best. Sneed, as noted, is the first defensive five-star the Irish have signed in nine years. Wagner, Schrauth, Merriweather, Raridon, Burnham, Ford, Gobaira all have enormous potential. For me, what’s holding this grade back a bit is more quantity than quality. I can’t give a higher grade than this when there’s one top 100 kid in the class, even if I think several are underrated. If the 2023 class continues the way it started, this will be a different story next year. Hell, even if it just holds on.

Immediate Impact: B-

This is not a knock on this class at all – there are some really good players in it, it’s just going to be hard for most of them to steal reps from the front line guys right now. Merriweather will see time out of necessity, for sure. Price will likely be in the backfield mix, even if it’s just as a late-game finisher to take some load off the veterans. I expect Sneed and Ford to see the field a decent amount; Morrison and Mickey (if he can bulk up a little) could too. There are a lot of really good guys in this class who are going to have to wait their turn, though, which says something about the overall health of the Irish roster.

Class Comments

True, there were some near misses on elite guys – Nwankpa, Miami’s Cyrus Moss, Penn State’s Jaden Saunders and Nicholas Singleton – but it’s worth noting that it’s the highest rank class in the 247 Composite since the 2013 class ranked 3rd. That’s not to say we should be satisfied with 7th, but ranking that highly with a medium-sized class is a data point that is moving in the right direction. The 2023 class could be a huge step further in that direction, especially with the caliber of the recruiters that Freeman has added to the staff. Last year I noted six top 50 prospects in the 2021 class that I thought Notre Dame could’ve landed with better or earlier effort. They landed one of those guys this year in Sneed. They very well could end up with five or more in the 2023 cycle.

I know, we say all the time that next year is the big year. (At heart, we’re apparently all Cubs fans.) This time it feels different though, because of who is running the program and how he has already shown us he intends to run it. Of course having four top 50 level talents in it already inspires confidence too – #22 Keon Keeley, #37 Drayk Bowen, #58 Peyton Bowen, and #101 Justyn Rhett (I’ll eat a shoe if he’s not top 50 by the end of the cycle). Funny how that works.

Back to 2022, I think this is going to be a fun class to watch grow. There are some enormously talented kids here who will either break into the depth chart early or push older guys to raise their game. Or maybe both!

Prop Bets

Because there’s nothing we can’t connect to gambling, we’ll leave you with the staff’s prop bets on a few key questions about this class.

Who will see the field the soonest?

  • Brendan: Tyson Ford
  • Eric: Tobias Merriweather
  • Tyler: Tobias Merriweather

Who has the highest upside?

  • Brendan: Jaylen Sneed
  • Eric: Eli Raridon
  • Tyler: Aamil Wagner

Who’s your favorite offensive player?

  • Brendan: Jadarian Price
  • Eric: Tobias Merriweather
  • Tyler: Tobias Merriweather

Who’s your favorite defensive player?

  • Brendan: Aiden Gobaira
  • Eric: Tyson Ford
  • Tyler: Jaylen Sneed