The proximity of another NCAA dead period – from June 26th to August 28th, prospects can’t meet staff on or off campus – feels like a natural time for us to review the Big Board again. When we last got together we touted the possibility of 2023 being arguably the best class of the internet era for Notre Dame as measured by average 247 Composite score for the class’s commits. The outlook is slightly foggier now that we’re farther along in the cycle, somewhat counterintuitively, but it’s still quite good. Our “reasonable” closing scenario puts the class average at 0.9377, comfortably ahead of 2008’s high water mark of 0.9310; our “pessimistic” scenario puts the class average at 0.9294, a little behind 2008 but well above Brian Kelly’s peak of 0.9230 in the 2013 class. To fall behind the 2013 class, the staff would need to surprisingly whiff on a number of prospects and lose a batch of the highest rated recruits in the class without replacing them.
If we pivot to 247 Composite class score, the reasonable scenario yields a score of 307.43 – that would’ve ranked between second and fourth in any of the past ten cycles. The scenario includes 11 additional members of the 2023 class; we just upgraded six of those 11 to “Hot” on the Big Board, and a seventh is already in the 2024 class and considering reclassifying. Three more prospects are currently “Warm.” Big things are afoot, my friends.
The Board
A reminder on how we do this – we’ll include the entire big board table but only review prospects who are above “Cold” status and who have had actual developments of late. Speaking of which, the temperature scale:
- Hot means the prospect is on commit watch.
- Warm means the prospect has Notre Dame in a small final group and/or is a possible Irish lean.
- Mild/Mild+ means the prospect is in regular contact with the staff and has visited or has firm visit plans.
- Cool means the prospect has some level of contact with the staff and/or vague visit plans; also the default temperature for most new offers.
- Cold is a known (or reasonably safely assumed) lack of contact with the staff and/or an elimination.
Also, on the 247 Composite scores: Roughly speaking above .9830 is a five star, above .9500 is a top 100 prospect, above .9200 is a top 200 prospect, and above .8900 is a four star. Those slide around a little within a cycle and from one cycle to the next, but they’re pretty solid ballpark numbers.
Remember that of course we don’t have perfect information on all prospects – we don’t know for sure whether a prospect has or hasn’t talked to the staff outside of what’s reported elsewhere. We don’t know for sure how high prospects are on the staff’s board or on other staffs’ boards. We try to make educated guesses at all of it, but we don’t know.
Unit | Position | Name | 247C | Temp |
O | IOL | Harris Sewell | 0.9646 | Cold |
O | IOL | Markis Deal | 0.9521 | Cold |
O | IOL | TJ Shanahan | 0.9381 | Cold |
O | OT | Kadyn Proctor | 0.9952 | Cold |
O | OT | Samson Okunlola | 0.9887 | Cold |
O | OT | Charles Jagusah | 0.9752 | Hot |
O | OT | Chase Bisontis | 0.9723 | Cold |
O | OT | Monroe Freeling | 0.9699 | Mild+ |
O | OT | Cayden Green | 0.9552 | Cold |
O | OT | Vysen Lang | 0.8767 | Cold |
O | OT | Koby Keenum | 0.8626 | Cold |
O | QB | Arch Manning | 1.0000 | Cold |
O | QB | Dante Moore | 0.9942 | Mild |
O | QB | Avery Johnson | 0.9194 | Cold |
O | RB | Richard Young | 0.9874 | Mild |
O | RB | Cedric Baxter | 0.9791 | Cold |
O | RB | Justice Haynes | 0.9759 | Cold |
O | RB | Jeremiyah Love | 0.9646 | Warm |
O | RB | Treyaun Webb | 0.9324 | Cold |
O | RB | Sedrick Irvin | 0.8900 | Cold |
O | TE | Duce Robinson | 0.9902 | Cold |
O | TE | Jaxon Howard | 0.9540 | Cold |
O | WR | Brandon Inniss | 0.9897 | Cold |
O | WR | Carnell Tate | 0.9858 | Cold |
O | WR | Jalen Brown | 0.9857 | Cold |
O | WR | Johntay Cook | 0.9839 | Cold |
O | WR | Hykeem Williams | 0.9799 | Cold |
O | WR | Jaquaize Pettaway | 0.9790 | Cold |
O | WR | Noah Rogers | 0.9769 | Cold |
O | WR | Jalen Hale | 0.9717 | Cold |
O | WR | Dalton Brooks | 0.9691 | Cold |
O | WR | Nathaniel Joseph | 0.9506 | Cool |
O | WR | Jaden Greathouse | 0.9478 | Hot |
O | WR | Aidan Mizell | 0.9471 | Cold |
O | WR | Tyler Williams | 0.9354 | Cold |
O | WR | Micah Tease | 0.9345 | Mild+ |
O | WR | Rico Flores | 0.9246 | Hot |
O | WR | Christian Hamilton | 0.9196 | Cold |
O | WR | Joshua Manning | 0.9074 | Cool |
O | WR | Malik Elzy | 0.9049 | Cool |
O | WR | Ronan Hanafin | 0.8967 | Hot |
D | CB | Tony Mitchell | 0.9903 | Cold |
D | CB | Javien Toviano | 0.9876 | Cold |
D | CB | Malik Muhammad | 0.9833 | Cold |
D | CB | Caleb Presley | 0.9633 | Cold |
D | CB | Christian Gray | 0.9543 | Hot |
D | CB | Micah Bell | 0.9451 | Hot |
D | CB | Kayin Lee | 0.9373 | Cold |
D | CB | Calvin Simpson-Hunt | 0.9289 | Cold |
D | CB | Jasiah Wagoner | 0.9255 | Warm |
D | CB | Sharif Denson | 0.9204 | Cold |
D | CB | Ethan Nation | 0.9135 | Cold |
D | CB | Jyaire Hill | 0.9033 | Cold |
D | DL | David Hicks | 0.9965 | Cold |
D | DL | Peter Woods | 0.9875 | Cold |
D | DL | Jason Moore | 0.9761 | Warm |
D | DL | Derrick LeBlanc | 0.9634 | Cold |
D | DL | Keldric Faulk | 0.9604 | Cold |
D | DL | John Walker | 0.9537 | Cold |
D | DL | Hunter Osborne | 0.9482 | Cold |
D | DL | Xzavier McLeod | 0.9323 | Cold |
D | DL | Jalen Thompson | 0.9208 | Cold |
D | DL | Stephiylan Green | 0.9194 | Cold |
D | DL | Kendrick Gilbert | 0.9035 | Cold |
D | DL | Ashton Sanders | 0.8719 | Cold |
D | DL | Stantavious Smith | 0.8519 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Matayo Uiagalelei | 0.9878 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Samuel M’Pemba | 0.9864 | Mild+ |
D | EDGE | Chandavian Bradley | 0.9836 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Jayden Wayne | 0.9815 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Ta’Mere Robinson | 0.9394 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Desmond Umeozulu | 0.9392 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Derion Gullette | 0.9382 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Dylan Gooden | 0.9319 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Colton Vasek | 0.9283 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Neeo Avery | 0.9203 | Cold |
D | EDGE | Kennedy McDowell | 0.0000 | Cold |
D | LB | Nyckoles Harbor | 0.9956 | Cold |
D | LB | Anthony Hill | 0.9905 | Cold |
D | LB | Troy Bowles | 0.9797 | Cold |
D | LB | Malik Bryant | 0.9778 | Cold |
D | LB | Jaiden Ausberry | 0.9659 | Warm |
D | LB | Raylen Wilson | 0.9645 | Cold |
D | LB | Tackett Curtis | 0.9619 | Cold |
D | LB | Tony Rojas | 0.9382 | Cold |
D | LB | Jayvant Brown | 0.9195 | Cold |
D | LB | Jaden Robinson | 0.8933 | Cold |
D | LB | Phil Picciotti | 0.8858 | Cold |
D | S | Caleb Downs | 0.9950 | Mild+ |
D | S | Joenel Aguero | 0.9840 | Cold |
D | S | Derek Williams | 0.9835 | Cold |
D | S | Mikal Harrison-Pilot | 0.9414 | Cold |
D | S | Isaac Smith | 0.9339 | Cold |
D | S | Rahmir Stewart | 0.9128 | Cold |
D | S | Daemon Fagan | 0.9112 | Cold |
D | S | King Mack | 0.8964 | Cold |
New to the Board
- WR Nathaniel Joseph, 0.9506, decommitted from Clemson
- IOL Joe Otting, 0.8752, new offer
Off the Board
- RB Rueben Owens, 0.9902, Louisville
- WR Carnell Tate, 0.9858, Ohio State
- DL Vic Burley, 0.9816, Clemson
- WR DeAndre Moore, 0.9720, Louisville
- WR Rodney Gallagher, 0.9453, West Virginia
- DL Avion Carter, 0.9324, TCU
- LB Jordan Hall, 0.9216, Michigan… State (lololol, Skunkbears stink)
- RB Jayden Limar, 0.9015, Notre Dame
- OT Elijah Paige, 0.8985, Notre Dame
- LB Tre Edwards, 0.8950, UCLA
- CB Amare Snowden, 0.8947, Cincinnati
- RB Marquese Williams, 0.8819, Minnesota
- IOL Joe Otting, 0.8752, Notre Dame
Quarterback
Commits: None
Slots: 1
The epic saga of ’23 QB recruiting continues… Since we last met, 2024 five-star QB and, I dunno, like octuple Michigan legacy CJ Carr committed to Notre Dame in an announcement ceremony that featured an adorable photo op of him putting a Notre Dame hat on his grandpa’s head. Aww. (Heh.)
But I digress. Well, sort of… Landing a 2024 QB before a 2023 QB seems a bit unorthodox, but then little if any of top ’23 target Dante Moore‘s recruitment has played out in an orthodox manner. Moore’s recruitment has gone on longer than the Irish staff expected it would and they apparently weren’t willing to tell Carr to hold off on committing, which if you’ve checked out his film (sophomore film!) is hardly surprising. Moore and Carr are both from Michigan – Moore from Detroit and Carr from Saline, literally minutes from Ann Arbor – and have played on the same 7-on-7 team for a while. There were early rumors that they wouldn’t want to land at the same school, then rumors that they didn’t care, then rumors that taking Carr may have upset the apple cart with Moore, then more rumors about the veracity of those rumors.
Moore, who Florida at one point more or less gave up on because they didn’t believe he wanted to leave the Midwest, just took an unofficial visit to Texas A&M and is headed to Oregon for an unofficial this weekend. Despite all his travels and a professed exhaustion with the recruiting process back in March, most of his visits have been unofficials – he has only used two official visits, one to Oregon and one to LSU – which suggests we’re not that close to the end of the process after all. Depending on who you ask, maybe Oregon leads, maybe LSU leads, maybe A&M leads, maybe ND leads, maybe nobody leads. In March it seemed like things would be over in a matter of weeks, in April his camp started talking about using all his OVs in the spring so he could have some fun, in May things shifted to a decision in late fall after seeing how everyone looked on the field, and more recently Dante himself has suggested a late summer decision may come as he’s getting tired of the process again.
As with so many of the details of Moore’s recruitment, we think everyone up to and including the recruiting services and maybe even the various coaching staffs involved don’t have a clear picture of exactly what the key factors are or what direction it’s headed in. What is clear though is that the Notre Dame staff very much wanted Carr in the fold and wanted to wrap that up as soon as they could. Complicating any projection is the recent development of the possibility for Carr to reclassify to 2023; counter to Notre Dame precedent, there are conversations happening about that and we believe it may be on the table if Carr wants to do it. If he does (which we still believe is a big if at this point), that would most definitely close down ’23 QB recruiting and of course simultaneously re-open ’24 QB recruiting. If Moore goes elsewhere and Carr stays in the 2024 class, it’s anyone’s guess where ’23 QB recruiting goes but we’re sure the staff will try to take someone.
So where would we suggest you lay your money in this race? Easy. Nowhere! Everything about this still feels extremely fluid to us and we suspect we won’t have more clarity on it until later in the summer, possibly even into the season. Stay tuned.
Running Back
Commits: Jayden Limar, 0.9015, #317 overall/#19 position
Slots: 2-3
Jayden Limar, as expected, committed to Notre Dame shortly after our initial Big Board update. He invites comparisons to Kyren Williams, although he comes in a little taller and a little leaner than Kyren did. He just took his official visit for the June 10th mega recruiting event and seems very much locked in with the Irish… Jeremiyah Love is now the #72 overall prospect in the 247 Composite. When the staff first offered him in February, he was ranked #526 overall; almost like they know what they’re doing… The usual heavy hitters are after Love, who boasts Chris Tyree level speed with more shiftiness; helping the Irish, he’s very much a high academic student who understands the value of the full package that Notre Dame is uniquely positioned to offer in the current college football landscape…
Five-star Richard Young dropped in for a midweek official visit last week and, while he’ll no doubt be a tremendously difficult pull from the South, we do believe the Irish are more than a hat on the table here. Since he was in town by himself he got a ton of one-on-one time with Marcus Freeman and Deland McCullough, even catching a ride in Freeman’s new Ferrari to scope out the Bend and get lined up by Julio. Freeman is a crafty, crafty dude, man. Watch for whether Young schedules a return visit for a game.
Wide Receiver
Commits: Braylon James, 0.9454, #117/#19 position
Slots: 4-5
Braylon James was part of the big June 10th weekend as well, essentially acting as an extra staff member. He was everywhere and was mentioned by several uncommitted prospects as a guy they really connected with. He also took a big tumble in the Composite rankings when 247 included the On3 rankings, which have him #245 overall, and the latest Rivals update, which dropped him from #77 to #205 in their rankings. LOL…
Nathaniel Joseph technically returns to the board after decommitting from Clemson, and we’ll keep him as “Cool” as we usually do with decommits until we have firm reason to do otherwise, but we’d be stunned if he gets out of Florida… Jaden Greathouse was part of the smaller but still impactful June 17th weekend. He has held Notre Dame and Chansi Stuckey in high regard for a long time, and we have no reason to believe that’s different after his visit. He was supposed to visit Texas this upcoming weekend, but word just came out that he won’t make that visit after all. Hmm…
Micah Tease and Rico Flores were also in town on June 10th. Tease is a tough one to read, in large part because it’s hard to know which side of the ball is pushing for him. He definitely has potential at corner but has stated a preference for offense, where he would likely be in the slot. There were positive vibes about his experience on campus but, again, the final position throws some clouds over things…
Flores, meanwhile, posted a final three of Notre Dame, Georgia, and Ohio State before visiting – and then canceled his Georgia visit after visiting. He’s set to visit Ohio State this weekend, which is a big one as landing him may be dependent on Ohio State missing a guy. Nonetheless, for now we really like Notre Dame’s chances. He set an announcement date of July 3rd…
Ronan Hanafin was, again, in town for the big June 10th weekend. He had an official visit to Clemson the weekend before, just finished an official to Alabama, and has an official to Boston College coming up this weekend. We expect he’ll be in decision mode shortly after and we see no reason to change the optimism we’ve had here since the Irish offered.
Tight End
Commits: Cooper Flanagan, 0.9143, #239 overall/#13 position
Slots: 1
Offensive Line
Commits: OT Sullivan Absher, 0.9232, #191 overall/#19 position; Elijah Paige, 0.8985, #335 overall/#29 position; IOL Sam Pendleton, 0.8933, #378 overall/#20 position; IOL Joe Otting, 0.8752, #591 overall/#42 position
Slots: 5-6
Last time we met, we said this:
We think that Elijah Paige, who will take an official on June 3rd (subversive!), and Joe Otting, who has drawn from interest from Hiestand and will camp in hopes of an offer this summer, may have to wait on other guys.
Which shows you how much you should listen to us… It would seem that the staff holds Paige in very high regard. In 247’s own rankings he’s now almost 400 spots higher than he was a month ago and expected to keep rising, so it’s likely that our previous opinion will look further afield as time goes on… Otting projects as a center and a guy that again Harry Hiestand really likes.
We know six offensive linemen in one class sounds like a lot (to everyone except Murtaugh, anyway), but it seems that the staff would still be willing to take top 100 tackles Charles Jagusah and Monroe Freeling. Jagusah just finished a round of official visits, the last one to Notre Dame just a few days ago, and could be ready to decide at sometime in the next few weeks. He has kept his entire recruitment very close to his vest but we feel good here… Freeling has connected with Absher and Pendleton, all Carolina kids, and made a big impression on his official on June 10th. His decision seems farther off though, and pulling him away from Clemson and Georgia may prove difficult.
Defensive Line
Commits: EDGE Keon Keeley, 0.9955, #8 overall/#1 position; DL Brenan Vernon, 0.9532, #99 overall/#12 position; DL Boubacar Traore, 0.9440, #123 overall/#18 position; DL Devan Houstan, 0.9187, #216 overall/#32 position
Slots: 4-5
The final target here is near-top-50 prospect Jason Moore, who also visited on June 10th. Like Jagusah, he has been fairly hard to read throughout; also like Jagusah, the tea leaves seem to point in Notre Dame’s direction right now. He just took an official visit to Michigan and has one to Ohio State lined up this weekend, but neither of those is the real competition – Penn State is the program to keep an eye on. We do think the Irish are in good shape here for a possible summer decision, but it’s likely very close with the Nittany Lions. For some reason.
Linebackers
Commits: Drayk Bowen, 0.9635, #76 overall/#6 position; Preston Zinter, 0.8877, #425 overall/#37 position
Slots: 3-4
Notre Dame is still on five-star Samuel M’Pemba‘s radar and likely will be well into the fall. I don’t think there’s a clear picture of who leads for the St. Louis product and current IMG student, but it’s safe to assume at this point that Alabama, Georgia, and Miami will be the main competition for him. He’s a take no matter who else is in the boat and no matter when he wants to decide, so expect the staff to stay on him…
Jaiden Ausberry was also on campus for the big June 10th event; 247 national analyst Steve Wiltfong put in a “crystal ball” prediction for him to Notre Dame shortly after that visit ended. Ausberry just finished an official visit to Texas A&M and has one to Michigan coming up this weekend. He has talked about announcing in December.
Defensive Backs
Commits: S Peyton Bowen, 0.9763, #51 overall/#4 position; S Adon Shuler, 0.9179, #221 overall/#16 position
We’ve skipped over current commits for the most part, but it’s worth noting here that Peyton Bowen, who visited on June 10th and very much looked like a locked-in member of the class, was rumored to be considering visits to Michigan and Oregon last weekend and made neither…
Caleb Downs was part of that same weekend and by all accounts things went well. Like Jagusah and Moore, though, he’s been a very difficult read. Unlike them, there’s no cause today to believe Notre Dame leads although they are legitimately in the race. His official was his fourth visit to Notre Dame, which clearly tells us there’s some level of interest there. Ohio State, where he will official this weekend, is likely the main competitor, with no clear decision timeline as of today…
Christian Gray‘s recruitment shifted a bit when LSU hired his former high school coach and mentor Robert Steeples, but after his official on (guess when – go ahead, guess!) it looks like Notre Dame is firmly in the driver’s seat. He was supposed to take an official visit to USC this past weekend but never made it. He’s also supposed to visit Ohio State this weekend ahead of his Independence Day announcement. If he also doesn’t make it there, well, feel free to connect the dots… Micah Bell, bucking the trend, visited on June 17th. He hasn’t visited anyone else and has an announcement scheduled for July 1st. Again, enjoy the dots…
Jasiah Wagoner also visited last weekend and things reportedly went very well. He’s earlier in the process than Gray and Bell; that was his first official, with a second scheduled this weekend to Washington. He has talked about targeting a fall decision; if July opens the way we think it will for the Irish, it’ll be interesting to watch whether there’s room in the class for this four-star corner. Again, crazy times.
Scenario Tracking
Reasonable close – 11 prospects:
- QB CJ Carr (reclassified from ’24)
- RB/WR Jeremiyah Love
- WR Jaden Greathouse
- WR/CB Micah Tease
- WR Rico Flores
- WR Ronan Hanafin
- OT Charles Jagusah
- DL Jason Moore
- LB Jaiden Ausberry
- CB Christian Gray
- CB Micah Bell
Optimistic close – 14 prospects:
- QB Dante Moore
- RB Richard Young
- RB/WR Jeremiyah Love
- WR Jaden Greathouse
- WR Rico Flores
- WR Ronan Hanafin
- OT Charles Jagusah
- OT Monroe Freeling
- DL Jason Moore
- LB Samuel M’Pemba
- LB Jaiden Ausberry
- CB Christian Gray
- CB Micah Bell
- S Caleb Downs
Pessimistic close – 7 prospects:
- QB Brock Glenn (or similar)
- WR Jaden Greathouse
- WR Rico Flores
- WR Ronan Hanafin
- OT Charles Jagusah
- CB Christian Gray
- CB Micah Bell
Wow, that was a lot of work. Thanks for putting this all together. The pessimistic close was depressing considering what is potentially out there. I know the pessimist in me had asked a few times “what does nd record need to be this fall to keep optimism running, 9-3?”, but I think an interesting aspect is “what if freeman goes out and wins 11 games”.
As an aside I had been a member at 247 for several years and cancelled around 16/17, had kids, recruiting seemed stagnant, etc. but really couldn’t remember why I cancelled. With the uptick in recruiting, freeman factor, dante saga, I signed back up. I remember now, it’s the posters. man the message boards are the absolute worst. I never post but pretty much every thread is hijacked and it just sucks. Anyways this place has always been chill. thanks for that
The pessimist in you belongs on the Michigan boards – their entire strategy for recruiting improvement is “hope Marcus Freeman faceplants.” Almost entirely absent from their ponderings is “what if he doesn’t?”
There are a handful of people who constantly run amok at 247 and make it unreadable. The team there churns out the most content and that has some value, but yeah, the boards are rough. And believe it or not they’re far from the worst message boards in the 247 network.
Thanks for the kind words about here, we aspire to be chill!
I was actually thinking, man that pessimistic class would be awesome. Does that make me an optimist or a pessimist?
It is truly wild that while the full optimistic class isn’t going to happen, we are legitimately in it for all those guys. I personally am very cautiously optimistic about M’Pemba more so than the others. Freeman gets his LBs.
Honestly nobody has any idea what’s going on with Dante. It would not be a prudent use of resources to lay anything on him committing to ND eventually, but on the other hand I wouldn’t not lay anything on it yet either. If you know what I mean.
Between Dante, Downs, M’Pemba, and Young, I’d be happy to land one and mildly surprised to land two. But as the old lotto commercials said, you gotta be in it to win it, and we’re in it.
Assuming Moore doesn’t commit to ND and Carr doesn’t reclassify where does ND pivot to? Do you go to some other relatively highly committed prospect out there that we had been in with at some point or is it going to be one of those mid-high 3 stars where ND is by far and away their best offer?
OSU is in the same boat as us. So whoever we go after, we might be competing with them.
I would think OSU would have a better chance to grab one of the relatively higher rated guys than we would – unless it’s a particular guy that we were in with at one point.
The two other guys we were in on and made wait were Vizzina, who has publicly committed to Clemson, and Avery Johnson, who is CBed to Kansas State, but hasn’t committed yet and has only taken 3 official visits, KSU, Oregon, and Washington.
Flipping Vizzina strikes me like a lot to hope for, but if we knew to turn it up with Johnson before he commits we could have a pretty good shot if we can get him to campus. Academic kid who was seemingly enamored with ND early in his process, #12 QB in the class. That’d be a pretty good late get if Moore is off the table.
That sounds right about who we’d have a chance with. Wonder what other upper-level schools were in on Johnson and who missing out on a top target would go after Johnson too.
Johnson’s father just told the local paper that he’ll likely announce within the next couple of weeks. A lot of momentum for K State there. I think once he commits he’ll be solid too, just as Arnold and Vizzina are.
I don’t know where ND will pivot if they don’t land Dante and Carr stays in ‘24. They may kick the tires on Purdue commit and Baton Rouge native Rickie Collins, but Collins is likely going to be super popular with everyone who missed out on Arch, Dante, Jaden Rashada, etc. Beyond that I really don’t know who’s on the radar, but then none of us knew that Rees had been talking to Walker Howard for months last cycle either.
Good point about Howard.
I just turned 37. My first real college football memory is the florida state boston college sequence in 93. It’s not my fault. I was born in the darkness
Same for me man, the first ND game I watched was ND-FSU in ’93. We didn’t even bother to watch the BC game the next week, figured it would be too uninteresting. Whoops.
Btw, one thing I forgot to point out – I think the pessimistic close is exceedingly unlikely. It includes whiffing on several guys that we’re highly confident ND will land. Could it happen? Sure, ‘crootin, anything can happen. But we doubt it.
I’m sorry Cardinal Baseball for your tortured past.
I’m 47, so I remember the ’82/’84/’87 Whiteyball Cards!
And although my first ND memory is Miami pasting the 1985 Fightin’ Gerry Fausts 58-7, I was 12 when they won the Natty and remember that season much better. I read that Sports Illustrated article about the USC win that year over, and over, and over again…
’twas great to see The Athletic’s Michigan writer recently have this line: “It’s also true that Marcus Freeman and Tommy Rees are recruiting as well as any head coach/offensive coordinator tandem in college football right now”
I’m sure there is much gnashing of teeth up north over that.
The Big Boards are enjoyable these days.
There is so much going on in this gif. I’m happier for having seen it
Looking at the class itself though, the “reasonable” class front 7 haul would be insane. 5 top 100 guys and 4 are really top 50. The secondary would have to be easily the best backfield haul we can remember for ND. WR would be pretty darn good (just don’t compare it to osu).
Weirdly, and I think eric alluded to this in his article, the ND o line class would be weighing the class down a lot. 3 of them are probably the bottom 3 in our class and absher won’t crack top 12. not that o line is. a huge need but would be cool to have them at a high level just to increase chance of top 2 class
Bonus data! Current commits in descending order of 247C score:
EDGE – Keon Keeley – 0.9955
S – Peyton Bowen – 0.9763
LB – Drayk Bowen – 0.9635
DL – Brenan Vernon – 0.9532
WR – Braylon James – 0.9454
DL – Boubacar Traore – 0.9440
OT – Sullivan Absher – 0.9232
DL – Devan Houstan – 0.9187
S – Adon Shuler – 0.9179
TE – Cooper Flanagan – 0.9143
RB – Jayden Limar – 0.9015
OT – Elijah Paige – 0.8985
IOL – Sam Pendleton – 0.8933
LB – Preston Zinter – 0.8877
IOL – Joe Otting – 0.8752
You are correct that the OL is dragging the score down somewhat. [Stephen A. Smith voice] HOWEVER… Adding Jagusah would obviously boost the OL score quite a bit. Absher is already ranked 114 spots higher than his nadir in March. Paige, as noted, just got a huge bump from 247 and should be in line for significant bumps from the other services too; it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him end up inside the top 200 in the Composite, maybe even the top 150. Pendleton and Otting are more likely to stay where they are, maybe make slight improvements.
Also, the OL score dragging down the class is indeed a good sign for the overall class, given that a group led by Jagusah/Absher will be pretty much in line with our standard OL recruiting and our standard OL recruiting is pretty good.
Regarding Paige. Jamie U said that he doesn’t even have JR year highlights on huddle. Jamie was only able to find it on his twitter. So maybe 247 was the only site to notice that and many are grading off his sophomore and wondering if he was injured or something his JR year.
I think he just doesn’t care about promoting himself. Hiestand visited him during the May eval period I think to check him out, and was 110% in on him after seeing him in person. USC, UCLA (and OL coach Justin Frye, who many ND fans wanted instead of Quinn), Washington, and MSU really wanted him too.
When Paige committed one of the services had him at #33 OT….that’s absurdly low. I watched his and Freeling’s Jr. film back to back and can see why Heistand was all in.
@Follow the trends!@
That OL is the thing dragging down the score (if it also ends up that way) is a *great* sign considering with a couple top 100 guys will be in line with what we’ve gotten before because that means basically every other position is now being recruited better than our typically best recruited position.
Where did this Louisville recruiting come from?
Satterfield’s ’20-’22 (mid 30s/low 40s) classes had been at about the same level under him as they were in ’15-’18 (mid 30s).
Did they hire some new, absurdly dynamic personality at OC? There’s no way they are out NILing schools for a 5* RB from Texas and a top 60 WR from CA.
There class is 1 kid from the ‘ville, 5 from CA (3 from St John Bosco), and 1 from TX, FL, and GA.
I do not understand what is happening.
Oh, I think they definitely out-NILed everyone for Owens and Moore. No question in my mind. They have 170K alums, some of whom have of course been extremely successful, and they are likely more than capable of concentrating NIL dollars on a couple of prospects at a level that will beat out what higher-tier
schoolscollectives have to spread around to those same prospects.Hypothetically speaking.
Weird. I just feel like UT, aTm, USC, and others, would have been able to out bid them. But if they concentrate everything on just a few, then clearly they could land a couple top guys. I guess everyone chooses who they want to prioritize and the really big dogs have other or more priorities for a finite amount of money.
Exactly. In some cases second-tier programs will have more budget available for a particular prospect than first-tier programs will. I suspect we’ve been on the wrong end of that once or twice this cycle but I don’t know that for sure.
I was all prepared to make jokes about how those must have been to PSU or UM, but looking at their classes, I don’t think either has anyone who ever even visited ND.
Related fun note about Michigan. Their best prospect by far, Raylen Wilson from FL, committed to them in December. He has since visited Florida 3 times (including an official and camp), UGA twice (including an official), and has been offered by MSU and UK. He has only visited UM once, for his official, prior to 2 of the UF visits.
I certainly do not feel bad for michigan but man it would suck to have their best year 25 years only to have the head coach/chosen son look for the first possible exit, OC make a lateral move if not half a step down, and have your 3 biggest rivals all have big recruiting years.
Having said that I still have that pessimism and worry about them snagging jagasah and one of those front 7 guys from ND.
Any guesses about with who? Tate comes to mind.
Well, Ohio State isn’t exactly a second tier program, lol… Staying at the position though, I could see it being a factor with Louisville’s DeAndre Moore (who they flipped from Oklahoma) or a guy like West Virginia’s Rodney Gallagher or uncommitted top 60 OT Chase Bisontis. If you can go down the list and say “huh” about a high-rated guy being committed to a particular school, there’s a decent chance NIL is involved. Just the way it is now.
Haha my bad. I was thinking more about this line:
And at a quick glance wasn’t reading it as only applying to the 2nd tier programs but to all programs. And I was thinking about guys who maybe we were really in on (or led) at first but then cooled and is going somewhere else.
yea I was wondering about Louisville too with 2(!) 5 stars committed. I figured it was NIL. But wasn’t sure how that would work. This makes sense.
I don’t know if you’re joking about the OC thing and already knew this, but their OC is our old friend, former RBs coach Lance Taylor. It’ll be interesting to see what he does with a guy the caliber of Reuben Owens.
I had totally forgotten that. I good UL coaching staff and other than Satterfield was hard to find good info (I didn’t look super hard). A nice start to his new gig.
I’ve neither read the books nor seen the movies, but this is 100% the character’s name in 50 Shades of Gray, is it not?
a) Yes.
b) Methinks thou doth protest too much.
(Pet peeve: Everyone, including me here, uses that line with the wrong intent – in Hamlet, the queen says it to describe the play-within-the-play character who is supposed to make her feel guilty by showing her how permissive she has been to her usurping brother-in-law, completely missing the point and saying that she thinks the character is overly resistant to said usurper. She doesn’t use it the way it has come to be meant, which is that the target hints at their own guilt by protesting something.)
(And don’t get me started on “a custom more honored in the breach than the observance.”)
Just making sure – not related to Mr. “Look for the Damn Ball” Gary Gray
Need to properly set my expectations if he does, in fact, commit to ND. This has been a worry of mine, in a time of few recruiting worries.
As always, thank you Brendan for another wonderful recruiting update! I feel bad for the 18S readers who don’t have access to these platinum level members-only articles.
BTW, is 18S going to become a collective for ND (with the site being so rich from all of our membership fees)?
We’ll sponsor the third string scholarship long snapper
Obligatory YCNHTMKLSLSTQ
That in combination with our stipend for walk-on punters will truly be the NIL deals that put us over the top on our journey to a Natty.
Thanks for this as always, Brendan. One of the best pieces around here (high praise!) and even more fun now with Freeman to boost it.
Question, there’s 15 commits now for 2023 if my math is right. How does your reasonable and optimistic outlooks handle going over 25 total for this class? Is that allowable? Or do you presume others might get pushed out like Irvin?
Some will enroll early, those wouldn’t count against the ’23 25. The NCAA also removed the 25 player cap this year. My understanding is there is still an 85 player cap, but no longer 25 in a given class (which there functionally hasn’t been for at least a decade).
7 out of the top 10 classes last year took 30+ players.
Now that transfer rules have eased up there’s not a ton of reason to not over recruit IMO. One thing to screw a kid over and make him go JuCo or sit a year some place else, now that’s not a problem.
Agreed. I would assume there will just naturally be more transfers because it is easier. I do think it’ll calm down a bit after people realize the grass is not always greener; thought I saw a stat that there are way more people in the portal than there are spots on rosters.
But I don’t think it’ll calm down for ND since guys will always have an option to move down a slight level (whereas at other lesser levels those prospects might not always have space and will start to think twice about transferring).
As a result, I think we should be overrecruiting positions since we know more and more guys who don’t quite make it will likely transfer.
Thanks, that’s the part I didn’t know if was in effect yet or not. I remember hearing they at least were discussing or considering removing the 25 limit (while sticking with 85 total scholarships) but that would be the missing piece for me if that change has happened already.
Feels weird now that the NCAA takes action on items like this so quickly now, but they don’t have much of a choice considering how far behind they are on so many issues, or just holding on as best they can at this point.
Plus, ND has more difficulty accepting undergrad transfers than other schools, so there will be more players leaving than coming back in the transfer portal. They’ll have to make up that difference with slightly larger recruiting classes
Good point, and I totally agree. The attrition is one-sided, so they might as well load up when and where they can before it starts to whittle away with transfers out. My initial question was more along the lines of “is it even possible to get 25+ commits for 2023” more than “idk if that is necessary”.
And, in the future, more 5-stars probably means more three-and-outs as well. Mayer will be gone and some are already saying that Alt and Fisher will be short timers, which seems just a little premature to me, but oh well. So that’s another reason to take more now, if as the average recruit gets better, could be more future first rounders that dip out early.
I’m thinking Carr reclassifying is not going to happen and Love is maybe more in the optimistic close but the rest are definitely reasonable.
One thing not mentioned around here is that with some kind of reasonable close our blue-chip rating could easily be north of 90%(!!!!) with only 2 3 stars and likely 25+ for the total class. And coupled with last year’s 82% blue-chip rate, that’s a core of a championship type roster. If we keep stacking classes like that – that blue-chip ratio seems to be better than even Alabama and others (even though of course they have gotten some more elite talent among those blue-chips).
Speaking of Carr reclassifying, would that even be good for him or the program? It’s a genuine question for me.
Maybe much of it depends on Buchner and whether he’ll be around for 2 or 3 more years. I would think if Buchner is going to be gone after 2 years you’d want Carr (assuming we get no 5 star type QB in 2023) around as early as possible. However, would it be better for his development to play another year of high school? Or is that experience overrated?
Also, would him staying in the 2024 class have a better effect on recruiting since he could help build the class from the beginning rather than jumping into the 2023 class at the end? He seems the kind of kid that would be recruiting hard.
From his perspective, you’d think he’d want to come in 2024 with another year of talent that Freeman would be recruiting. All things being equal it’s nicer to play with a bunch of more talented guys. And whenever he comes, he might only be here 3 years so coming a year later would give him a better supporting cast most likely (esp. at WR).
Reclassifying makes a lot sense for all parties in this situation. Carr is 17 years old and I forget the circumstances but I think it was said he was held back in 8th grade, so physically he was in the 2023 HS class for a while. I believe he is a few weeks/months older than Dante Moore.
For the team, it’s a no-brainer that getting a 2023 five star QB is preferable than 2024 five star. I don’t really think it matters to lose Carr as a 2024 recruiter, kids are going to do what they need to do…I’d say it’s much more important that Notre Dame has Carr as a great QB prospect coming in rather than the timing of it to help the recruiting.
For the player, I guess it’s debatable what is better: tearing up Michigan HS football in 2023, or getting college coaching and potentially even competing for playing time.
But to me the player’s age and apparent physical readiness from how he plays makes this a case where re-classifying actually has a lot of validity to it.
Yea, so you are thinking because of his “advanced” age, it’s not really a case of pushing someone ahead of the curve and getting them a little early and with less experience.
As far as college coaching versus high school playing: I guess I was thinking that especially for QBs playing experience is very important. And so sitting an extra year behind Buchner might be less helpful then getting another season’s worth of playing games. Though I suppose some of that does really depend on the kind of offense he is running and whether he has to make a lot of decisions or not.
Jamie U has discussed starting a whole HS season vs college practices on a couple of the Hit&Hustle podcasts. He specifically spoke about Buchner enrolling early vs playing his SR season (which was pushed to the ’21 spring in CA), which is basically the same question for Carr.
Overall, he feels that one isn’t clearly better than the other. Everybody is different, and every situation is different, so there’s really no saying who would benefit more from which. And in the end, you never know if it was the best decision (unless he comes early, plays 3 years, and is the #1 pick).
I don’t think ND would push him to re-classify unless they think he’s ready to step in and potentially start games. If they think he will back up Buchner, he has to be ready to start a game. If they think he’s going to back up Angeli in ’23 (i.e. 3rd string), that seems like a pretty clear waste of a year of both eligibility and development.
Yea this sounds about right (that it depends on the player and situation). And I would think coming in earlier would make it harder to be ready to start games, but of course I don’t know specifically with Carr.
And it would make sense that being 3rd string would not entail one to have that many practice reps I would think. So as you say if he were backing up Angeli in ’23 that would seem more like a waste of a year than getting more high school playing experience.
Carr is a few days older than Dante, but it doesn’t really change your point. Co-sign everything else here.
Carr will be playing another season of HS FB this fall. I hardly think another year of HS FB (at least his 3rd?) in 2023 will be all that beneficial to him…. Not really a reply to you Brendan, just getting in line.
Yeah, for sure. Especially to get him up to speed to potentially start in 2024, getting to college ASAP makes a lot of sense to get in the door a year early. Of course, I don’t know if that would be possible or in his own best interests, but from a distance it seems like a good option.
And thank you Brendan for the clarification and specifics!
Expecting Buchner not to be around for 3 years strikes me as…generous. I guess the assumption is that he’s going to leave early for the NFL because he’ll be such a high draft pick? I’m not seeing that at all, given his particular skill set and our recent track record. The only reason not to anticipate him being at ND in 2024 is if he’s overtaken by a younger QB.
I’m not expecting anything. I was just considering the logical possibilities.
This is a pretty cool article about NIL car deals for players. It does in depth on the specific deals and the tax implications. Interviews with the dealerships that have deals with Stroud, Jurkovec, and Flowers.
The short of it: Players get new car every 45 days. Taxes for the player could be $10,000+ depending on the value of the car. Dealerships see it as marketing and expect to benefit. Very different than a collective recruiting fund type setup.
https://www.on3.com/nil/news/cj-stroud-ohio-state-football-nil-car-deal-g-wagon-phil-jurkovec-zay-flowers-boston-college/
And of course this has been going on in some college towns (cough Columbus cough cough) forever, now with NIL it’s just above board. There’s also a very good (unassailable?) case to be made that this fits within the by-the-book intent of NIL.
I don’t think you have to cough anymore. Despite that being against the rules, the SCOTUS unanimously agreed that they were behaving justly.