What heady times we live in… Notre Dame and Ohio State flipped back and forth for the #1 class ranking all July, with the Irish re-taking the spot right at the end of the month thanks to four-star cornerback Dion Johnson decommitting for the Buckeyes. Ohio State also lost out on a number of guys that they either had just about written into their class in ink or thought they had a very good chance at. To wit:

I don’t think they were that big a threat to land Haynes or Bowles, and as for top 100 DT Walker to UCF, go ahead and draw your own new-era conclusions on that one. Still, Ohio State has more black eyes than feathers in its cap for July (acknowledging of course that they’ve still caught some very pretty feathers), and that doesn’t even include the prospect of borderline five-star receiver Noah Rogers perhaps wavering on his commitment, or that Carnell Tate is now mulling in-season official visits to Miami and Oregon. There has been some drama around other elite programs too – five-star cornerback Tony Mitchell, a longtime Alabama commit, skipped Alabama’s BBQ to attend Texas A&M’s pool party. Five-star USC QB commit Malachi Nelson, who followed Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma, was also at the pool party. When we tell you “it’s not just us,” this is what we’re talking about. Welcome to the big leagues, kids.

As of today the Buckeyes have actually slipped a bit as they’re now ranked two spots behind the Irish, but unfortunately the Irish have slipped as well – from #1, which we knew they were never going to be able to hold onto all the way anyway, to #4. Notre Dame isn’t far off #2 Texas, less than one point of class score, while Alabama has of course rocketed to a comfortable lead with more elite commits likely coming. So much fun to chase them.

Anyway… The last time we checked in was just before the July dead period started. The final week of July was semi-open – recruits could visit schools but only on unofficial visits. We’re now back in a dead period until the season starts, at which point official visits will spin up again. With some prospects taking the earlier part of the month to digest and decide after taking June visits, some using the light visit period at the end of the month to lock in or reconsider things, and some others wanting to make a decision before their own season started, there has been quite a bit of movement on the board.

The Board

A reminder on how we do this – we’ll include the entire big board table but only review prospects who are above “Cold” status and who have had actual developments of late. Speaking of which, the temperature scale:

  • Hot means the prospect is on commit watch.
  • Warm means the prospect has Notre Dame in a small final group and/or is a possible Irish lean.
  • Mild/Mild+ means the prospect is in regular contact with the staff and has visited or has firm visit plans.
  • Cool means the prospect has some level of contact with the staff and/or vague visit plans; also the default temperature for most new offers.
  • Cold is a known (or reasonably safely assumed) lack of contact with the staff and/or an elimination.

Also, on the 247 Composite scores: Roughly speaking above .9830 is a five star, above .9500 is a top 100 prospect, above .9200 is a top 200 prospect, and above .8900 is a four star. Those slide around a little within a cycle and from one cycle to the next, but they’re pretty solid ballpark numbers.

Remember that of course we don’t have perfect information on all prospects – we don’t know for sure whether a prospect has or hasn’t talked to the staff outside of what’s reported elsewhere. We don’t know for sure how high prospects are on the staff’s board or on other staffs’ boards. We try to make educated guesses at all of it, but we don’t know.

Position Name 247C Temp
DL David Hicks 0.9958 Cold
EDGE Keon Keeley 0.9956 Cool
LB Nyckoles Harbor 0.9950 Cold
OT Samson Okunlola 0.9913 Cold
WR Hykeem Williams 0.9884 Cold
TE Duce Robinson 0.9883 Cold
EDGE Samuel M’Pemba 0.9862 Cool
EDGE Matayo Uiagalelei 0.9857 Cold
CB Javien Toviano 0.9832 Cold
WR Jalen Hale 0.9708 Cold
RB Jeremiyah Love 0.9698 Hot
EDGE Caleb Herring 0.9621 Cool
DL Markis Deal 0.9490 Cold
WR Tyler Williams 0.9432 Cold
DL Hunter Osborne 0.9421 Cold
S Mikal Harrison-Pilot 0.9378 Cold
IOL TJ Shanahan 0.9371 Cold
S Isaac Smith 0.9295 Cold
EDGE Dylan Gooden 0.9118 Cold
CB Jyaire Hill 0.9081 Cold
CB Ethan Nation 0.9060 Cold
LB Jayvant Brown 0.9052 Cold
WR Taeshaun Lyons 0.8994 Hot
S Rahmir Stewart 0.8938 Cold
OT Vysen Lang 0.8800 Cold
DL Ashton Sanders 0.8719 Cold

New to the Board

  • EDGE Keon Keeley, 0.9956, Notre Dame decommit
  • EDGE Caleb Herring, 0.9621, new offer / maybe soft Tennessee commit
  • QB Austin Novosad, 0.9353, new offer / soft Baylor commit
  • RB/WR Dylan Edwards, 0.9156, new offer / Kansas State decommit
  • EDGE Blake Purchase, 0.9070, new offer
  • QB Kenny Minchey, 0.9010, new offer / firm Pitt commit
  • WR Taeshaun Lyons, 0.8994, new offer
  • S Ben Minich, 0.8778, new offer / Notre Dame commit
  • EDGE Jaeden Moore, 0.8750, new offer
  • DL Ashton Sanders, 0.8719, Cal decommit

Off the Board

Deep breath…

  • QB Dante Moore, 0.9954, Oregon
  • S Caleb Downs, 0.9945, Alabama
  • LB Anthony Hill, 0.9906, Texas A&M
  • RB Richard Young, 0.9864, Alabama
  • DL Peter Woods, 0.9855, Clemson
  • S Joenel Aguero, 0.9833, Georgia
  • RB Justice Haynes, 0.9822, Alabama
  • WR Jalen Brown, 0.9812, LSU
  • EDGE Jayden Wayne, 0.9801, Miami
  • CB Malik Muhammad, 0.9795, Texas
  • RB Cedric Baxter, 0.9782, Texas
  • EDGE Chandavian Bradley, 0.9767, Tennessee
  • LB Raylen Wilson, 0.9765, Georgia (flipped from Michigan) (lol)
  • WR Jaquaize Pettaway, 0.9761, Oklahoma
  • LB Troy Bowles, 0.9728, Georgia
  • OT Monroe Freeling, 0.9714, Georgia
  • OT Chase Bisontis, 0.9700, Texas A&M
  • DB Dalton Brooks, 0.9685, Texas A&M
  • WR Aidan Mizell, 0.9658, Florida
  • OT Cayden Green, 0.9648, Oklahoma
  • DL Keldric Faulk, 0.9583, Florida State
  • LB Tackett Curtis, 0.9578, USC
  • LB Tony Rojas, 0.9539, Penn State
  • DL Derrick LeBlanc, 0.9522, Oklahoma
  • DL John Walker, 0.9522, UCF
  • CB Caleb Presley, 0.9498, Oregon
  • WR Jaden Greathouse, 0.9494, Notre Dame
  • LB Jaiden Ausberry, 0.9393, Notre Dame
  • EDGE Ta’Mere Robinson, 0.9380, Penn State
  • EDGE Derion Gullette, 0.9373, Texas
  • EDGE Colton Vasek, 0.9356, Oklahoma
  • QB Austin Novosad, 0.9353, Baylor (reaffirmed commitment)
  • EDGE Desmond Umeozulu, 0.9322, South Carolina
  • DL Xzavier McLeod, 0.9303, South Carolina
  • DL Jalen Thompson, 0.9234, Michigan State
  • CB Jasiah Wagoner, 0.9197, Oklahoma
  • RB/WR Dylan Edwards, 0.9156, Notre Dame
  • WR Joshua Manning, 0.9111, Missouri
  • DL Kendrick Gilbert, 0.9086, Purdue
  • EDGE Neeo Avery, 0.9085, Ole Miss
  • EDGE Blake Purchase, 0.9070, Oregon
  • WR Malik Elzy, 0.9049, Cincinnati
  • QB Kenny Minchey, 0.9010, Pitt (reaffirmed commitment)
  • S Ben Minich, 0.8975, Notre Dame
  • EDGE Jaeden Moore, 0.8750, Oregon
  • OT Koby Keenum, 0.8626, Kentucky
  • DL Armel Mukam, 0.8578, Notre Dame (off-the-radar flip from Stanford)
  • DL Stantavious Smith, 0.8519, FAU

Quarterback

Commits: None
Slots: 1

Still treading water here as new offers Austin Novosad and Kenny Minchey each reaffirmed their commitments to Baylor and Pitt, respectively. Novosad did visit Notre Dame but it wasn’t enough to move him off his pledge. We’re not sure where things will go from here, although remember that the possibility of 2024 five-star QB CJ Carr reclassifying is still out there.

Running Back

Commits: Dylan Edwards, 0.9156, #236 overall/#12 position; Jayden Limar, 0.9016, #315 overall/#20 position
Slots: 2-3

After his summer official visit to Notre Dame, Jeremiyah Love (pictured) said he considered committing on the spot but didn’t because his mother wasn’t with him. Texas A&M has made some inroads in the interim, but Love will be back on at Notre Dame for the home opener this weekend – with Mom along this time. Read into that what you will…

The Irish also quickly flipped speedster Dylan Edwards away from Kansas State, earning a visit and commitment within days of offering. Edwards recently ran an electronic sub-4.4 40 that got a few programs interested in him, but it was Notre Dame that most intrigued him. He’s a back now and will likely get some carries for the Irish too, although he may end up working more out of the slot. He should be a staple in the return game too.

Confirmation that Edwards can indeed move:

Wide Receiver

Commits: Braylon James, 0.9493, #107 overall/#16 position; Jaiden Greathouse, 0.9490, #111 overall/#17 position; Rico Flores, 0.9217, #204 overall/#25 position
Slots: 4-5

Nothing much to report here other than the addition of record-setting Texan Jaiden Greathouse, who is one of the most productive players in school history for a program that absolutely cranks out FBS talent. Like Edwards, the fireworks started early for Greathouse this season – he logged a 60 yard touchdown on his first target. I like when our commits do lots of cool stuff…

As noted above, Edwards will likely end up working primarily out of the slot, in large part due to his speed and shiftiness. Another prospect who can move but is significantly bigger than Edwards (6-2/170 vs. 5-9/165) is new offer Taeshaun Lyons out of the Bay Area in California. As 247’s Tom Loy noted in this free update:

Not only did Lyons have a ton of interest in Notre Dame, but he also has a strong family tie in current cornerback Tariq Bracy, his cousin, as well as a close family friend that ran track for the Irish.

In the same piece Loy notes that Lyons will take an official visit for the Cal game on the 17th.

Tight End

Commits: Cooper Flanagan, 0.9143, #239 overall/#13 position
Slots: 1

Offensive Line

Commits: OT Charles Jagusah, 0.9752, #55/#5; OT Sullivan Absher, 0.9232, #191 overall/#19 position; Elijah Paige, 0.8985, #335 overall/#29 position; IOL Sam Pendleton, 0.8933, #378 overall/#20 position; IOL Joe Otting, 0.8752, #591 overall/#42 position
Slots: 5

Defensive Line

Commits: DL Brenan Vernon, 0.9484, #114 overall/#15 position; DL Boubacar Traore, 0.9417, #137 overall/#19 position; DL Devan Houstan, 0.9187, #221 overall/#35 position; EDGE Armel Mukam, 0.8578, NR overall/#90 position
Slots: 4-5

Sigh… In a mega-gut-punch development, top ten overall prospect Keon Keeley decommitted from Notre Dame last month. Despite Notre Dame being on him long before any other major program, despite looking for all the world like a Notre Dame lifer at the Blue-Gold game in April, despite persistent rumors that Keon himself had no interest in decommitting… He’s not part of the class anymore. All I’ll say here is that it’s pretty damn unfortunate that we finally get a staff of ace recruiters together exactly now and not a couple of years sooner. We have no idea if Keeley is still in play or not, but we would imagine the door will be kept ajar in case…

Samuel M’Pemba , who we’ve moved from LB to EDGE in this update, is still out there and still has the Irish on his radar. As of today it looks like he’ll make his scheduled official visit for the Clemson game; Notre Dame likely has ground to make up on Georgia and Miami, maybe very significant ground, but if they can get him back on campus who knows

New offer Jaeden Moore was too close to decision mode to reverse course, and in fact committed to Oregon shortly after the Irish offer… Another new offer, Blake Purchase, was in a similar spot – for a minute it looked like he might schedule a visit to Notre Dame, but then he set an announcement date for yesterday and committed to Oregon…

Armel Mukam flipped from Stanford to Notre Dame seemingly out of nowhere, as there was no known offer to him and no known contact as far as we saw. He profiles as a big end and is essentially a replacement for Jason Moore’s spot. He’s a fascinating prospect in that he’s very new to football – he’s from Canada, where he came up as (we swear we’re not making this up) a hockey player before his high school’s football coach talked him into the game. The same coach told him he had a future as a D1 player in the States, so he started researching US programs, held a virtual visit with Woodberry Forrest (some of you may remember it as the alma mater of CJ Prosise, Greer Martini, and Doug Randolph), and transferred there sight unseen. We don’t know what to make of him yet but he’s interesting. ISD’s Jamie Uyeyama compares him to a higher-ceilinged Ade Ogundeji, which, yes please…

Sort of a wild card in all this is Tennessee top 100 commit Caleb Herring, who recently picked up a Notre Dame offer. We’re not sure what to make of this, as it would seem that the Tennessee native would be a solid Vols commit, but on the other hand the staff wouldn’t make the offer if they didn’t think there was some level of interest. Stay tuned here to see if a visit happens at some point, which would officially make things interesting.

Linebackers

Commits: Drayk Bowen, 0.9549, #94 overall/#6 position; Jaiden Ausberry, 0.9393, #141 overall/#11 position; Preston Zinter, 0.8877, #425 overall/#37 position
Slots: 3

Jaiden Ausberry picked Notre Dame over LSU, where he goes to high school and his father works in the athletic department, Auburn, where his brother goes, Texas A&M, and Michigan (lol). He somewhat inexplicably started getting dinged for being a tweener right before his decision, despite being of similar dimensions as others ranked much higher. Whatever, though – his ranking doesn’t change the fact that he’s a sideline to sideline player who will continue Notre Dame’s recent run of strong linebacker play.

Defensive Backs

Commits: S Peyton Bowen, 0.9763, #51 overall/#4 position; CB Christian Gray, 0.9543, #94 overall/#10 position; CB Micah Bell, 0.9451, #120 overall/#13 position; S Adon Shuler, 0.9179, #221 overall/#16 position; S Ben Minich, 0.8975, #341 overall/#34 position
Slots: 5

With Ben Minich‘s 10.77 100M time this past track season, the staff decided to turn up the heat on him and he committed shortly after. Those same track times led to a nice little boost in his ranking since his commitment, bouncing him from a mid level three star to a low four star. He’s had a good start to his senior season and could see his climb continue. Nobody’s going to pretend he’s the same level of prospect as Caleb Downs, of course, but he’s a good evaluation with speed upside to round out the defensive back group.

Scenario Tracking

Mid close – 4 prospects – 300.77 class score – 0.9299 average:

  • QB CJ Carr (reclassified from ’24)
  • RB Jeremiyah Love
  • WR Taeshaun Lyons
  • EDGE Caleb Herring

High close – 4 prospects – 302.95 class score – 0.9308 average:

  • QB CJ Carr (reclassified from ’24)
  • RB Jeremiyah Love
  • WR Taeshaun Lyons
  • EDGE Samuel M’Pemba

Low close – 4 prospects – ~292 class score – ~0.9240 average:

  • QB – mid-level three star placeholder
  • RB Jeremiyah Love
  • WR Taeshuan Lyons
  • EDGE – low four star placeholder

I changed these scenario names from pessimistic/reasonable/optimistic to low/mid/high, which was really more the intent from the beginning – e.g., this is what we’d have to do for the highest finish at least somewhat realistically in play from here, etc. As you can see, the defection of Keeley had a massive impact on the scenarios. Even so, the current real-life class score of 285.58 is still above Brian Kelly’s best of 284.77 in 2013, the mid-level average rating score is projected just barely behind the internet era high of 0.9301 set by Weis in 2008, and the low average rating score is comfortably ahead of Kelly’s best of 0.9230 also in 2013. I suppose with this staff we shouldn’t rule out any in-season surprises – hell, even Brian Kelly got a five-star quarterback to unexpectedly visit last year – but right now we couldn’t guess as to who might be in play.