What heady times we live in… Notre Dame and Ohio State flipped back and forth for the #1 class ranking all July, with the Irish re-taking the spot right at the end of the month thanks to four-star cornerback Dion Johnson decommitting for the Buckeyes. Ohio State also lost out on a number of guys that they either had just about written into their class in ink or thought they had a very good chance at. To wit:
June 24th Official Visit will go down as the worst visit weekend in Ohio State history. WTF
Justice Haynes: Alabama
Darron Reed: LSU
John Walker: UCF
Olaus Alinen: Bama
Tackett Curtis: USC
Caleb Downs: Bama
Troy Bowles: Georgia— Zeke (@anotherbucksfan) July 27, 2022
I don’t think they were that big a threat to land Haynes or Bowles, and as for top 100 DT Walker to UCF, go ahead and draw your own new-era conclusions on that one. Still, Ohio State has more black eyes than feathers in its cap for July (acknowledging of course that they’ve still caught some very pretty feathers), and that doesn’t even include the prospect of borderline five-star receiver Noah Rogers perhaps wavering on his commitment, or that Carnell Tate is now mulling in-season official visits to Miami and Oregon. There has been some drama around other elite programs too – five-star cornerback Tony Mitchell, a longtime Alabama commit, skipped Alabama’s BBQ to attend Texas A&M’s pool party. Five-star USC QB commit Malachi Nelson, who followed Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma, was also at the pool party. When we tell you “it’s not just us,” this is what we’re talking about. Welcome to the big leagues, kids.
As of today the Buckeyes have actually slipped a bit as they’re now ranked two spots behind the Irish, but unfortunately the Irish have slipped as well – from #1, which we knew they were never going to be able to hold onto all the way anyway, to #4. Notre Dame isn’t far off #2 Texas, less than one point of class score, while Alabama has of course rocketed to a comfortable lead with more elite commits likely coming. So much fun to chase them.
Anyway… The last time we checked in was just before the July dead period started. The final week of July was semi-open – recruits could visit schools but only on unofficial visits. We’re now back in a dead period until the season starts, at which point official visits will spin up again. With some prospects taking the earlier part of the month to digest and decide after taking June visits, some using the light visit period at the end of the month to lock in or reconsider things, and some others wanting to make a decision before their own season started, there has been quite a bit of movement on the board.
The Board
A reminder on how we do this – we’ll include the entire big board table but only review prospects who are above “Cold” status and who have had actual developments of late. Speaking of which, the temperature scale:
- Hot means the prospect is on commit watch.
- Warm means the prospect has Notre Dame in a small final group and/or is a possible Irish lean.
- Mild/Mild+ means the prospect is in regular contact with the staff and has visited or has firm visit plans.
- Cool means the prospect has some level of contact with the staff and/or vague visit plans; also the default temperature for most new offers.
- Cold is a known (or reasonably safely assumed) lack of contact with the staff and/or an elimination.
Also, on the 247 Composite scores: Roughly speaking above .9830 is a five star, above .9500 is a top 100 prospect, above .9200 is a top 200 prospect, and above .8900 is a four star. Those slide around a little within a cycle and from one cycle to the next, but they’re pretty solid ballpark numbers.
Remember that of course we don’t have perfect information on all prospects – we don’t know for sure whether a prospect has or hasn’t talked to the staff outside of what’s reported elsewhere. We don’t know for sure how high prospects are on the staff’s board or on other staffs’ boards. We try to make educated guesses at all of it, but we don’t know.
Position | Name | 247C | Temp |
DL | David Hicks | 0.9958 | Cold |
EDGE | Keon Keeley | 0.9956 | Cool |
LB | Nyckoles Harbor | 0.9950 | Cold |
OT | Samson Okunlola | 0.9913 | Cold |
WR | Hykeem Williams | 0.9884 | Cold |
TE | Duce Robinson | 0.9883 | Cold |
EDGE | Samuel M’Pemba | 0.9862 | Cool |
EDGE | Matayo Uiagalelei | 0.9857 | Cold |
CB | Javien Toviano | 0.9832 | Cold |
WR | Jalen Hale | 0.9708 | Cold |
RB | Jeremiyah Love | 0.9698 | Hot |
EDGE | Caleb Herring | 0.9621 | Cool |
DL | Markis Deal | 0.9490 | Cold |
WR | Tyler Williams | 0.9432 | Cold |
DL | Hunter Osborne | 0.9421 | Cold |
S | Mikal Harrison-Pilot | 0.9378 | Cold |
IOL | TJ Shanahan | 0.9371 | Cold |
S | Isaac Smith | 0.9295 | Cold |
EDGE | Dylan Gooden | 0.9118 | Cold |
CB | Jyaire Hill | 0.9081 | Cold |
CB | Ethan Nation | 0.9060 | Cold |
LB | Jayvant Brown | 0.9052 | Cold |
WR | Taeshaun Lyons | 0.8994 | Hot |
S | Rahmir Stewart | 0.8938 | Cold |
OT | Vysen Lang | 0.8800 | Cold |
DL | Ashton Sanders | 0.8719 | Cold |
New to the Board
- EDGE Keon Keeley, 0.9956, Notre Dame decommit
- EDGE Caleb Herring, 0.9621, new offer / maybe soft Tennessee commit
- QB Austin Novosad, 0.9353, new offer / soft Baylor commit
- RB/WR Dylan Edwards, 0.9156, new offer / Kansas State decommit
- EDGE Blake Purchase, 0.9070, new offer
- QB Kenny Minchey, 0.9010, new offer / firm Pitt commit
- WR Taeshaun Lyons, 0.8994, new offer
- S Ben Minich, 0.8778, new offer / Notre Dame commit
- EDGE Jaeden Moore, 0.8750, new offer
- DL Ashton Sanders, 0.8719, Cal decommit
Off the Board
Deep breath…
- QB Dante Moore, 0.9954, Oregon
- S Caleb Downs, 0.9945, Alabama
- LB Anthony Hill, 0.9906, Texas A&M
- RB Richard Young, 0.9864, Alabama
- DL Peter Woods, 0.9855, Clemson
- S Joenel Aguero, 0.9833, Georgia
- RB Justice Haynes, 0.9822, Alabama
- WR Jalen Brown, 0.9812, LSU
- EDGE Jayden Wayne, 0.9801, Miami
- CB Malik Muhammad, 0.9795, Texas
- RB Cedric Baxter, 0.9782, Texas
- EDGE Chandavian Bradley, 0.9767, Tennessee
- LB Raylen Wilson, 0.9765, Georgia (flipped from Michigan) (lol)
- WR Jaquaize Pettaway, 0.9761, Oklahoma
- LB Troy Bowles, 0.9728, Georgia
- OT Monroe Freeling, 0.9714, Georgia
- OT Chase Bisontis, 0.9700, Texas A&M
- DB Dalton Brooks, 0.9685, Texas A&M
- WR Aidan Mizell, 0.9658, Florida
- OT Cayden Green, 0.9648, Oklahoma
- DL Keldric Faulk, 0.9583, Florida State
- LB Tackett Curtis, 0.9578, USC
- LB Tony Rojas, 0.9539, Penn State
- DL Derrick LeBlanc, 0.9522, Oklahoma
- DL John Walker, 0.9522, UCF
- CB Caleb Presley, 0.9498, Oregon
- WR Jaden Greathouse, 0.9494, Notre Dame
- LB Jaiden Ausberry, 0.9393, Notre Dame
- EDGE Ta’Mere Robinson, 0.9380, Penn State
- EDGE Derion Gullette, 0.9373, Texas
- EDGE Colton Vasek, 0.9356, Oklahoma
- QB Austin Novosad, 0.9353, Baylor (reaffirmed commitment)
- EDGE Desmond Umeozulu, 0.9322, South Carolina
- DL Xzavier McLeod, 0.9303, South Carolina
- DL Jalen Thompson, 0.9234, Michigan State
- CB Jasiah Wagoner, 0.9197, Oklahoma
- RB/WR Dylan Edwards, 0.9156, Notre Dame
- WR Joshua Manning, 0.9111, Missouri
- DL Kendrick Gilbert, 0.9086, Purdue
- EDGE Neeo Avery, 0.9085, Ole Miss
- EDGE Blake Purchase, 0.9070, Oregon
- WR Malik Elzy, 0.9049, Cincinnati
- QB Kenny Minchey, 0.9010, Pitt (reaffirmed commitment)
- S Ben Minich, 0.8975, Notre Dame
- EDGE Jaeden Moore, 0.8750, Oregon
- OT Koby Keenum, 0.8626, Kentucky
- DL Armel Mukam, 0.8578, Notre Dame (off-the-radar flip from Stanford)
- DL Stantavious Smith, 0.8519, FAU
Quarterback
Commits: None
Slots: 1
Still treading water here as new offers Austin Novosad and Kenny Minchey each reaffirmed their commitments to Baylor and Pitt, respectively. Novosad did visit Notre Dame but it wasn’t enough to move him off his pledge. We’re not sure where things will go from here, although remember that the possibility of 2024 five-star QB CJ Carr reclassifying is still out there.
Running Back
Commits: Dylan Edwards, 0.9156, #236 overall/#12 position; Jayden Limar, 0.9016, #315 overall/#20 position
Slots: 2-3
After his summer official visit to Notre Dame, Jeremiyah Love (pictured) said he considered committing on the spot but didn’t because his mother wasn’t with him. Texas A&M has made some inroads in the interim, but Love will be back on at Notre Dame for the home opener this weekend – with Mom along this time. Read into that what you will…
The Irish also quickly flipped speedster Dylan Edwards away from Kansas State, earning a visit and commitment within days of offering. Edwards recently ran an electronic sub-4.4 40 that got a few programs interested in him, but it was Notre Dame that most intrigued him. He’s a back now and will likely get some carries for the Irish too, although he may end up working more out of the slot. He should be a staple in the return game too.
Confirmation that Edwards can indeed move:
Get that man some Gatorade.@dylan_edwards02 shakes loose for a 68-yard TD, his 1st score of his senior season. 🧃 pic.twitter.com/J2vDuE4HS9
— Brandon Zenner KWCH (@KWCHBrandon) September 3, 2022
Wide Receiver
Commits: Braylon James, 0.9493, #107 overall/#16 position; Jaiden Greathouse, 0.9490, #111 overall/#17 position; Rico Flores, 0.9217, #204 overall/#25 position
Slots: 4-5
Nothing much to report here other than the addition of record-setting Texan Jaiden Greathouse, who is one of the most productive players in school history for a program that absolutely cranks out FBS talent. Like Edwards, the fireworks started early for Greathouse this season – he logged a 60 yard touchdown on his first target. I like when our commits do lots of cool stuff…
As noted above, Edwards will likely end up working primarily out of the slot, in large part due to his speed and shiftiness. Another prospect who can move but is significantly bigger than Edwards (6-2/170 vs. 5-9/165) is new offer Taeshaun Lyons out of the Bay Area in California. As 247’s Tom Loy noted in this free update:
Not only did Lyons have a ton of interest in Notre Dame, but he also has a strong family tie in current cornerback Tariq Bracy, his cousin, as well as a close family friend that ran track for the Irish.
In the same piece Loy notes that Lyons will take an official visit for the Cal game on the 17th.
Tight End
Commits: Cooper Flanagan, 0.9143, #239 overall/#13 position
Slots: 1
Offensive Line
Commits: OT Charles Jagusah, 0.9752, #55/#5; OT Sullivan Absher, 0.9232, #191 overall/#19 position; Elijah Paige, 0.8985, #335 overall/#29 position; IOL Sam Pendleton, 0.8933, #378 overall/#20 position; IOL Joe Otting, 0.8752, #591 overall/#42 position
Slots: 5
Defensive Line
Commits: DL Brenan Vernon, 0.9484, #114 overall/#15 position; DL Boubacar Traore, 0.9417, #137 overall/#19 position; DL Devan Houstan, 0.9187, #221 overall/#35 position; EDGE Armel Mukam, 0.8578, NR overall/#90 position
Slots: 4-5
Sigh… In a mega-gut-punch development, top ten overall prospect Keon Keeley decommitted from Notre Dame last month. Despite Notre Dame being on him long before any other major program, despite looking for all the world like a Notre Dame lifer at the Blue-Gold game in April, despite persistent rumors that Keon himself had no interest in decommitting… He’s not part of the class anymore. All I’ll say here is that it’s pretty damn unfortunate that we finally get a staff of ace recruiters together exactly now and not a couple of years sooner. We have no idea if Keeley is still in play or not, but we would imagine the door will be kept ajar in case…
Samuel M’Pemba , who we’ve moved from LB to EDGE in this update, is still out there and still has the Irish on his radar. As of today it looks like he’ll make his scheduled official visit for the Clemson game; Notre Dame likely has ground to make up on Georgia and Miami, maybe very significant ground, but if they can get him back on campus who knows
New offer Jaeden Moore was too close to decision mode to reverse course, and in fact committed to Oregon shortly after the Irish offer… Another new offer, Blake Purchase, was in a similar spot – for a minute it looked like he might schedule a visit to Notre Dame, but then he set an announcement date for yesterday and committed to Oregon…
Armel Mukam flipped from Stanford to Notre Dame seemingly out of nowhere, as there was no known offer to him and no known contact as far as we saw. He profiles as a big end and is essentially a replacement for Jason Moore’s spot. He’s a fascinating prospect in that he’s very new to football – he’s from Canada, where he came up as (we swear we’re not making this up) a hockey player before his high school’s football coach talked him into the game. The same coach told him he had a future as a D1 player in the States, so he started researching US programs, held a virtual visit with Woodberry Forrest (some of you may remember it as the alma mater of CJ Prosise, Greer Martini, and Doug Randolph), and transferred there sight unseen. We don’t know what to make of him yet but he’s interesting. ISD’s Jamie Uyeyama compares him to a higher-ceilinged Ade Ogundeji, which, yes please…
Sort of a wild card in all this is Tennessee top 100 commit Caleb Herring, who recently picked up a Notre Dame offer. We’re not sure what to make of this, as it would seem that the Tennessee native would be a solid Vols commit, but on the other hand the staff wouldn’t make the offer if they didn’t think there was some level of interest. Stay tuned here to see if a visit happens at some point, which would officially make things interesting.
Linebackers
Commits: Drayk Bowen, 0.9549, #94 overall/#6 position; Jaiden Ausberry, 0.9393, #141 overall/#11 position; Preston Zinter, 0.8877, #425 overall/#37 position
Slots: 3
Jaiden Ausberry picked Notre Dame over LSU, where he goes to high school and his father works in the athletic department, Auburn, where his brother goes, Texas A&M, and Michigan (lol). He somewhat inexplicably started getting dinged for being a tweener right before his decision, despite being of similar dimensions as others ranked much higher. Whatever, though – his ranking doesn’t change the fact that he’s a sideline to sideline player who will continue Notre Dame’s recent run of strong linebacker play.
Defensive Backs
Commits: S Peyton Bowen, 0.9763, #51 overall/#4 position; CB Christian Gray, 0.9543, #94 overall/#10 position; CB Micah Bell, 0.9451, #120 overall/#13 position; S Adon Shuler, 0.9179, #221 overall/#16 position; S Ben Minich, 0.8975, #341 overall/#34 position
Slots: 5
With Ben Minich‘s 10.77 100M time this past track season, the staff decided to turn up the heat on him and he committed shortly after. Those same track times led to a nice little boost in his ranking since his commitment, bouncing him from a mid level three star to a low four star. He’s had a good start to his senior season and could see his climb continue. Nobody’s going to pretend he’s the same level of prospect as Caleb Downs, of course, but he’s a good evaluation with speed upside to round out the defensive back group.
Scenario Tracking
Mid close – 4 prospects – 300.77 class score – 0.9299 average:
- QB CJ Carr (reclassified from ’24)
- RB Jeremiyah Love
- WR Taeshaun Lyons
- EDGE Caleb Herring
High close – 4 prospects – 302.95 class score – 0.9308 average:
- QB CJ Carr (reclassified from ’24)
- RB Jeremiyah Love
- WR Taeshaun Lyons
- EDGE Samuel M’Pemba
Low close – 4 prospects – ~292 class score – ~0.9240 average:
- QB – mid-level three star placeholder
- RB Jeremiyah Love
- WR Taeshuan Lyons
- EDGE – low four star placeholder
I changed these scenario names from pessimistic/reasonable/optimistic to low/mid/high, which was really more the intent from the beginning – e.g., this is what we’d have to do for the highest finish at least somewhat realistically in play from here, etc. As you can see, the defection of Keeley had a massive impact on the scenarios. Even so, the current real-life class score of 285.58 is still above Brian Kelly’s best of 284.77 in 2013, the mid-level average rating score is projected just barely behind the internet era high of 0.9301 set by Weis in 2008, and the low average rating score is comfortably ahead of Kelly’s best of 0.9230 also in 2013. I suppose with this staff we shouldn’t rule out any in-season surprises – hell, even Brian Kelly got a five-star quarterback to unexpectedly visit last year – but right now we couldn’t guess as to who might be in play.
I have a subscription to 247 but with the season underway that place is uninhabitable so haven’t gone at all and now don’t get any recruiting updates. so this was a timely update for me.
The keeley decommit is absolutely brutal. The way this class potentially looked in april would have leveled nd up in 1-2 years. Still happy with overall recruiting plus the potential 7!!!! skill guys they’d bring in. the dylan edwards highlights are awesome
It can still level ND up, especially if they stack another good class in 2024 on top of it. Taking that 2015 team as an example – the one that likely would’ve beaten end-of-season #2 Clemson and #3 Stanford if you swapped BVG out for Elko or Lea or Freeman or Golden or a sock puppet – it was built largely on the shoulders of that 2013 class.
The following guys were 2013 signees who became 2015 key contributors (starters marked with an asterisk):
Not all were equally impactful, obviously, but there are some very productive names in there. They key is to put together a class every year that can contribute a similar chunk of high-quality starters to the lineup, and then after a few years you’re not putting a lineup out with a McGlinchey, a Fuller, a Jaylon, etc., you’re putting a lineout out that has three or four of each of them.
Oh yeah I agree, I think stacking classes which i presume marcus will do will help nd level up. I guess I meant an immediate level up. the one difference from 2023 vs 2013 is what upper echelon recruiting looks like. the top 3 is much higher than it was a decade ago
Yea this is where the blue-chip rate of nearly 90% makes a huge difference – even if we are a couple short of the top 10 can’t miss kind of guys.
Also, agree that while 247 retains its value for national coverage and volume of Irish recruiting coverage, the board has increasingly become a cesspool over the last six months or so and it’s incredibly difficult to wade through it to get to the stuff that actually means something. Threads with three or four nuggets from Tom Loy buried in six pages of peeing contests and hair-pulling have become fairly commonplace.
The Keeley decommit is indeed brutal. Of course in the end they’ll be fine and there are bigger problems you could have, but I do in fact very firmly believe that both Keeley and Dante Moore wanted ND and were steered away by those around them, and at some level that’s sad. Could they boomerang back? Highly unlikely but it would be smart to stay in touch with them at least. It has to be frustrating for Freeman too to land two generational talents like that and then lose them over things outside his control.
And finally, on a more positive note, yeah man, Edwards looks like a really fun player – he may end up being the steal of this class. Size is an issue but man, find a way to get him the ball and let’s see what happens. It worked for Isaiah McKenzie.
In the new world of transfers, I just wish there was some way to get ND to allow undergrad transfers. If Keeley and Moore have the academics to get in as freshmen, why not transfers?
Let’s say Oregon implodes under new coaching and (*knocks on wood) Carr gets hurt, and Dante Moore changes his mind?
What is the rationale anyway, given that ND takes grad transfers. Is it something that is common for any undergrad from an outside institution coming to ND? Would they not take my 19 hard-earned IUSB credits? 😉
I did not go to ND and I’m not an expert here, but from what I gather from insider podcasts, it not that they don’t accept your IUSB credits, it’s that most football players at other schools are steered to taking very basic classes and not enough classes in the first year or two to qualify for entrance into ND.
So, perhaps ND requires a junior transfer to have 4 credits of college level math and 2 semesters of a foreign language, but at State U the football players take a lighter load and so only have 3 credits of math and no foreign language classes and so therefore don’t qualify as an undergrad transfer.
This is just what I’ve heard. Clearly once someone has a bachelor’s degree then there are different requirements to be a grad student.
It is very hard for undergrads to transfer into ND. I knew a couple transfers, and one who didn’t get accepted as a transfer (a U of I engineer, not an academic slouch). They said it’s basically the same level of difficulty as initial admission. So in FB players cases, I think goldendomer is exactly correct. You spend one year taking state U football classes, and boom, no transfer.
Amir Carlisle and Alohi Gilman both did it. So it can be done, but it ain’t easy.
Getting into grad school, on the other hand, isn’t that hard. You can get accepted in any program and ND isn’t nearly as elite a graduate university as it is undergrad.
Nice insight juice. I kind of assumed the info about the grad transfer process but of course all the complaints are about undergrad transfers so that is what the podcasts all talk about.
It does seem that the undergrad transfer things is something that will need to change for ND to remain competitive. I don’t know exactly how it would change but the question really needs to be “can this player handle the academic load and are they not too far behind to ensure graduation on time”? This would be reasonable and would remain true to the core academic mission of the school. It seems the rest is just unnecessarily hurting the football program in catching up with the rest of college football.
Thanks Juice. And Domer I totally agree about whether they can handle the load.
It’s a basic assumption that if it’s good for the football program, a player can redshirt and get 5 years to graduate. So what if a player has one basically worthless academic year at State U (or even 2)? Let them catch up.
/0.02c
I don’t know that the school would be on board with the idea of 5 years because typically if a player comes back for his 5th year he needs to be applying for a grad program.
However, one year of State U can’t put you so far behind that a dedicated student couldn’t make it up. Most football players at ND graduate in 3.5 years because of summer classes, so that gives a whole semester of leeway for a transfer to still be able to finish in 4 years.
I believe I’ve read that different people are making the decisions on transfers than are making decisions on freshman enrollees.
This is correct (at least for the general student body, so I would assume for athletes as well).
In almost all situations, ND requires at least 27 credits and 1 full year of completed undergraduate education. This means:
-A player could not transfer before completing their ENTIRE freshman year (no winter break or spring quarter transfers).
-A player could not transfer AFTER their freshman year if they took less than a full courseload (unless they received credits for summer school pre-freshman year or had high school AP Credits). Many athletes at other schools enter immediately on a 5 year graduation path, meaning they may only take 13 or fewer credits per semester, leaving them under ND’s 27 credit requirement after their freshman year.
-So now, you’ve eliminated a huge population of players who can transfer in during or after their freshman year. But that’s just the start. ALL of your credits must be for in-person classes. NO credits are allowed for online courses (except for those during the pandemic in 2020/2021). AND all of your credits MUST be in classes you received a grade of at least “B.” At most schools (even ND), getting almost all C’s would be fine to stay on the Football team. But to transfer in, this wouldn’t even count.
-Finally, if you transferred all of those credits into ND, would you be on pace to graduate in 4 years? Did you take all of the required classes that would have been required if you were a freshman at ND? If not, will you be able to take those in the summer before you start your sophomore year at ND?
Ok, so you have all the required credits AND you got at least a “B” in those courses. How is your overall academic record? For non-athletes, you either need to have great high school records (i.e. you would have gotten into ND if you had applied in high school) or you have a great GPA at your current college (roughly a 3.75). There might be some leeway here for football players, like there is when they apply from high school, but many football players aren’t even going to be at this point due to the 4 bullet points above. It’s definitely not impossible, but it’s extremely difficult. Does the football staff have the time to sift through every player in the portal that they would be interested in, then have someone in compliance go through their transcript? Does the player want to deal with all of that hassle, when there are 100 other schools out there who would take them in a heartbeat?
Classic ND
Sifting through all these grad transfer options…
Second everything that goldendomer and juice said, and to add just a touch more color to it… ND expects students to make steady progress toward a degree with appropriate courses, both in subject matter and difficulty. It’s not just grades, which as noted have to be strong as well.
Lots of schools will let guys mill around in generic courses, so if they tried to transfer in as, say, rising juniors, ND would look at their transcript and say, eh, yes you have 60 credits in the bank already, but nearly all of them are in 100-level courses with no clear focus, so we can’t admit you with the same academic standing you have now.
That Gilman and Joseph could do it only after being very carefully vetted tells you all you need to know.
Grad transfers are indeed a very different animal. Most of the ND fifth-years, certainly the ones with pro aspirations, barely even engage with school as fifth years at this point. Grad transfers aren’t much different.
Dylan Edwards still looks like the fastest human on earth.
Here’s another one featuring an alarming ability to change direction while moving faster than anyone else on the field.