Following a spring of positive development at a number of positions–and a returning quarterback (no jinx) well regarded across the country–the hype and expectations are growing considerably for the Notre Dame offense. As I’ve scanned the landscape I have witnessed certain words beginning to be tossed around, including “elite”, “dominant”, and “unstoppable.”
Before we dig in further let’s first try to agree upon what those words would mean in context for Notre Dame. First, here are the S&P offense rankings in the recent past for the Irish:
2018 – 34
2017 – 19
2016 – 18
2015 – 6
2014 – 23
2013 – 35
2012 – 35
2011 – 25
2010 – 35
It seems like we have a floor of expectations, at the very least. These numbers by themselves aren’t perfect by any means. Even with the defensive struggles it’s hard to imagine 2016’s offense being the second best of the Kelly era but perhaps that’s a good debate. Last year’s offense didn’t always feel like the 4th worst of the bunch although the start with Wimbush and being smashed by Clemson didn’t help the cause.
Let’s say something around the Top 10 of S&P would be elite, that feels about right. The Irish defense finished 10th last year and most would say it was an elite defense in most respects. If you want something more traditional let’s target 35 points per game as a goal in 2019. The Kelly-era high is 34.2 points achieved twice in 2015 and 2017.
Why the 2019 Offense Will Dominate
1) Ian Book
I think the masses have done a 180-degree turn on Ian Book 4 times since last September. Most didn’t want to see him instead of Wimbush, then he quickly won over people, then he bombed in the Cotton Bowl, then he’s calmly solidified himself as the starter through the end of spring practice. The real question is if another 180 is coming during the 2019 season.
Of course, Ian Book has limitations. He’s short and doesn’t have a huge arm. Yet, he checks a ton of boxes that make up a great college quarterback. And really, when you look back Brady Quinn (spotty accuracy, relied on tall receivers/tight ends) and Jimmy Clausen (incredibly immobile) they had some obvious flaws too which are some of Book’s biggest strengths.
To put it bluntly, as we mentioned in the Notre Dame Hall of Fame Pyramid introduction post if you average out Book’s 9 starts from 2018 to a full 13-game season he will produce one of the top 2 or 3 passing seasons in school history. It’s difficult to think that could happen and the Irish wouldn’t have a potent offense to one degree or another.
2) Speed at Receiver
It’s weird bringing this up after Miles Boykin obliterated the NFL Combine but I will go to my grave believing he didn’t flash that speed and quickness for the Irish. For me, this is more about Chase Claypool hopefully reaching his potential, Chris Finke gaining even more confidence, and any combination of Michael Young, Kevin Austin, Lawrence Keys, or Braden Lenzy providing more speed that wasn’t there in any great abundance last year.
It will be crucial for the receivers to be great at picking up yards after catch. If we assume Book becomes modestly productive at completing deeper passes, he’ll still need to make his living in the short-to-medium throws and have his receivers turn 8 yards gains into 27 yard gains. History would suggest at least one receiver needs to have a big, big year for the Irish offense to be elite.
3) The Most Cohesion of the Kelly Era
Despite his critics claiming Notre Dame’s offense has been a Waste Management dumpster engulfed in flames that lucked its way into a 22-4 record over the last 2 seasons the S&P rankings tell a different story that the Irish have been cruising (Wimbush games 1-3 for 2018 aside) as a comfortably successful offense for several years now.
Coming into 2019, the offensive coordinator is back for the 3rd straight year (a first for the Kelly era), a nice veteran mix of starters return (7 in total) in combination with promising new blood, and perhaps the best quarterback of the Kelly era is coming back to give the program a level of continuity its been starving for over the last decade.
This amount of cohesiveness for a coaching staff and players working with a burgeoning star at quarterback could portend big things during the fall.
Why the 2019 Offense Won’t Dominate
1) Offensive Line Questions
I remember we had some lively discussions prior to 2018 about the offensive line. I remained skeptical as a new coach + losses of Glinch/Nelson + lots of off-season shuffling of positions + a lack of blue-chip NFL prospects felt like too much to overcome. A downward turn seemed inevitable it was only a question of how much.
On the bright side, the 2018 offensive line gave up 5 fewer sacks on 66 more pass attempts than the 2017 unit. They allowed 13 fewer quarterback hurries. Power success rate dropped only from 23rd to 38th which isn’t too bad considering the generational talent that was lost. Yet, we know the 2018 offense rushed for 1,127 fewer yards, 8 fewer touchdowns, and the overall rushing average dropped by a sickening 1.82 yards per carry.
Overall rushing success rate finished up at 48.8% just barely avoiding 2010 (by o.1%) for the worst of the Kelly era, too. As such, the advanced stats savaged Notre Dame’s offensive line. Adjusted line yards fell from 5th to 106th, opportunity rate from 11th to 112th, and stuff rate from 22nd to 121st. As we’ve discusses previously, the amount of stuffs (defined either by carries for 0 or fewer yards or 2 yards or fewer, take your pick) killed the Irish ground game when they couldn’t make up for it with explosiveness like 2017. For instance, runs of 20+ yards were cut in half from 42 to 21 carries in 2018.
2) Stars vs. Depth
Following a productive spring and Blue-Gold Game I do fear we’re being seduced a little bit by the depth on offense. Or should I say supposed depth on offense. There are encouraging signs in many places but we really can’t hang our hat on many proven players offensively besides Book, Armstrong, Claypool, and Finke.
That’s a nice group, although if you told me 10 months ago Notre Dame’s offense would dominate in 2019 off the backs of those 4 players I wouldn’t have laughed in your face but been extremely skeptical. When looking to the future I like to pretend I’m speaking to a fan of an opponent and convincing them about Notre Dame’s players. I couldn’t in good conscience hype up Michael Young or Jahmir Smith right now.
In off-season exuberance we sometimes run away with thoughts that there will be a handful of great players backed up by a handful of almost great players–basically a cascading flow of talent. In reality, it’s never that pretty.
Major stars are needed. I’d say all of Book, Armstrong, Claypool, and one tight end all have to reach their ceilings quickly for the Irish offense to be truly dominant. That kind of stardom sometimes gets ignored when good things are happening at one position like running back where 3 or 4 quality options could be used.
3) Lack of Explosiveness
It may be safe to assume the Irish running game will get at least a little more successful and a more experienced Ian Book should see at least a small increase in passing efficiency for someone who finished 17th nationally in passer rating. Quality ten percent bumps in each alone won’t be enough to create a dominant offense. The Irish finished 46th in success rate last year according to S&P and even if that was closer to 30th in Ian Book’s 9 games it’s always hard to rely so much on efficiency.
The top 5 offenses last year all finished in the top 16 in S&P’s explosiveness metric with the exception of Ohio State who led the entire country in passing yardage. Notre Dame was 37th last year down from 10th the year prior. That actually is better than it felt sometimes last year but can the Irish make a 20 to 25 spot jump in these rankings?
Recap
Last spring I was predicting we could see the worst offense of the Kelly era in 2018. For a few games at least, it seemed well on its way before the page was turned at quarterback. In terms of yards per play I predicted 5.82 for the 2018 offense. They started at 5.09 through the first 3 games (yikes indeed) but improved under Book to finish at 6.00 for the season.
Normally cautious, I’m surprisingly optimistic about the 2019 offense. I’m seeing 40 points per game being bandied about but I’m not quite that optimistic. That would take about 130 combined points against New Mexico and Bowling Green, averaging 20 points in the 3 difficult road games (Georgia, Michigan, Stanford), and then average 42 per game against the rest of the schedule.
40 points per game is super hard, especially with so few breathers on Notre Dame’s schedule. It would be a modern school record for a reason!
I’m really high on Book being able to become one of the upper-echelon quarterbacks in the country who’s good enough to carry the Irish in most games but who may never be a complete superstar. I’m also buying stock in the offensive line with one caveat:
The running backs have to be difference makers and help out their fair share. I’ve always gone against the grain on this topic as most pin nearly all the blame on the line when rushing isn’t up to par. Sure, up front things should’ve been better but there was a shocking lack of making tacklers miss and picking up additional yardage in 2018.
A lot of people like to look back at the 2017 team and envision McGlinchey and Nelson opening up huge holes. While true on occasion, running back Josh Adams was great at yards after contact. Not only did he lead the country in 2017 in yards after contact (4.95) Adams’ final season is the best from a Power 5 back over the last 5 years. You can’t block every single defender all the time and I thought 2018’s backs were atrocious at times creating their own yardage–a hallmark of the best running backs.
Notre Dame’s offensive line should perform at a B/B+ level in 2019 and you can have a very, very good offense with that protection and blocking, especially with a quarterback like Ian Book. So much of my focus is on the running backs–can Jafar Armstrong stay healthy and truly blossom into a star? Will the younger backs really push Tony Jones Jr. for carries and help drive down the awful stuff rate from last year? This unit has enough questions where there should be healthy skepticism about a truly dominant offense in 2019. Or maybe the passing game will be so fantastic the run game won’t matter as much.
Scoring 130 points against Bob Davie and BVG.
Too low?
“Wow, the 2019 offense had 50 runs of 20+ yards.”
“True, but 35 of them came against Bowling Green.”
I would enjoy the schadenfreude of putting up 60+ in both of those games. Especially against BVG an offensive explosion would be hilarious.
I have some lingering doubts about ND football being able to do that to teams that they’re better than, you know, because of all of modern ND football history, but it would definitely be fun.
Thoughtful ape is best ape.
To me, it breaks down to the long ball. If they can stretch the field vertically, or at least consistently threaten it, that should open up all of that short and intermediate stuff. Then it’s just a matter of punching it into the endzone.
Yep, loved the spring practice 40+ yard pitch and catch to Claypool. Everything you want to see.
They also had one with Kmet running up the seam and it was too high a throw. If Book puts that on the money it’s a huge gain and really stretches what the defense has to worry about for the underneath crossing routes they love so much. I think Simms even mentioned that’s a play on tape he was confident they could adjust to a more accurate throw which, uh, we’ll see I guess.
I’m pretty bullish on it, Book was solid last year and has more experience and time to study. I also believe the pace of the offense will continue to improve. Hoping it leads to exceeding Eric’s 35ish point average prediction. (I.E. they put 38 up on Stanford at home, should raise the average of the tough games with also Michigan’s defense in 2018 > 2019, no? They’re losing an awful lot).
So I’m hoping they play to potential and can be solidly a top-10 offense next year. If Book and Armstrong stay healthy I like the odds.
The seam pass to the TEs has to be there this year. We desperately need somebody to pull the LBs back a bit to open up the ground game, because we don’t have backs that are in that upper echelon who can make guys miss on their own.
YES moar TE seems please. That should be totally money to Kmet, which should open up the box significantly. Kmet needs to own the seam. And Book needs to throw it.
Last year, I was someone in favor of replacing Wimbush with Book. However, after (approximately) a season of watching Book, I question the hype-train about him (I have seen articles about him possibly leaving early for the draft next year). Don’t get me wrong — I like him — but I think that he has a ceiling that was so clearly evident against a great defense. I think that he will put up excellent numbers on the BVG quality defenses as well as the middling teams, but I see him struggling against a defense like Georgia (or even Michigan).
To be fair, 98% of quarterbacks struggle against the best defenses in the country.
That’s why I said he’s probably unlikely to become a true superstar. And that’s not all on him, either. I don’t think the Irish have the horses (so it appears right now) where we should expect Book to be a Heisman front-runner. If the hype train is referencing that then I agree, he’s probably not a talent who will carry the team on his back against Georgia. But, otherwise he should be one of the better players at his position in the country which you can’t say about many Notre Dame players.
So who else could you say is one of the best players at their position?
Okwara and Haynes? Could anyone on the On-line have a breakout season? Kmet or Claypool? Either safety or Pride? Those players probably have as much to do with the number of wins this season as anything else.
It’s kind of like giving the top of the Top 25 players we do every August!
1. Okwara
2. Book
3. Gilman
4. Kareem
5. Pride
6. Elliott
7. Banks
8. Claypool
9. Armstrong
10. Finke
That’s my list real quick off the top of my head. I’d say the top 4 have the chance to be All-Americans. I wouldn’t expect it from anyone else.
How many QBs do it all on their own though? Justin Ross is the best freshmen WR I’ve ever seen. If you switch QBs for the Cotton Bowl is the result any different?
People are seriously predicting 40+ ppg? That seems insane. There were only 4 Power5 teams that did that last year. Oklahoma, Clemson, tOSU, Alabama. We are nowhere near any of those offenses, and I just don’t see how we make that jump. That is the top 2 most efficient QB seasons in CFB history, the 34th, and Trevor Lawrence.
Even your why we WILL dominate doesn’t really make it seem like we could dominate anywhere near that level.
I expect us to be right in the 25 range. Mostly due to improved efficiency having Book play for a year, and some improvement in explosiveness, partially from the improved efficiency and partially from dumb luck.
Here is my gauge of expectations for the offence:
Top 10: Shocked beyond belief. I just don’t see this happening.
10-15: Pretty shocked. I think this would get us to 11-1 almost easily.
15-20: Surprised, but feels within reach if your 1-3 play out. I think this would be the minimum needed for 12-0, assuming some regression defensively.
20-25: Not surprised and pleased.
25-30: Not surprised, not quite pleased, minimally disappointed.
30-35: Surprised, decidedly not pleased.
35+: Quite surprised.
I’m predicting #25 as well. Book will likely be better, but he’ll be missing his security blanket in Boykin. Armstrong will likely be better, but I don’t think he’ll be better than Dex. The O-Line will likely be better, but they were pretty bad last year. And the receiver group will potentially be better, but again, losing Boykin may (or may not) be a big loss. There is so much depth, that I don’t see us having a bad offense. But there aren’t enough stars for us to become an elite offense, unless 1 or 2 WRs come from out of nowhere (i.e. putting up basically 0 stats last season) to be special (which would be an anomaly for the Irish under BK).
Pretty much exactly how I feel about each position.
What we’re they 22 and 4? That’s some pottery good football.
2017 they lost Glinch, Nelson (My favorite all time On-lineman), Josh Adams, Stephersen, St Brown, Smythe, and several others. They had a pretty good year.
This year they lose Terry Jillery, Bars, Tranquil, Coney, Mustipher, Love, Bonner, and Boykin. I’m sure that’s not all of them, or that they’re all spelled right.
We will see I guess. It doesn’t seem like that big of a drop of from one year to the next.
This is the season that will define whether Kelly is a good at developing QB’s. There is no excuse for this offense not to be better.
The O-line should be better. (experience & maturity making them more cohesive)
The WRs and TEs should be as good or better. (much like Boykin last year I see Claypool, Finke & Kmet making jumps as well as Young and Austin. That’s a lot of talent)
The RB position if not better, should be more consistent.( yards after contact being part of it. I like what I saw in the spring game with the RBs in tight quarters)
I don’t see a slow start from this offense this year. Book will have enough familiarity with his play makers that they should hit the ground running. His biggest improvements need to be with his eyes pre snap and gaining confidence in his decision making and his play makers. I think early on defenses are going to learn they have to cover the deep ball vs. ND in 2019.
40 pts. a game? Unlikely. An offense that will be a bitch to stop and can beat you in multiple ways? Absolutely.
Counterpoint: The offense loses its #1 WR, #1 TE, and #1 RB (who rushed for more than all of our other RBs combined). I’m not saying the offense won’t be better, but I wouldn’t say there’s no excuse. That’s a lot of talent that will need to be replaced. Just an improvement at QB and O Line might not make the offense better on its own.
Counter counter. Claypool looks primed to be a legit no 1 WR. Mack really had very little production to go with his recruiting hype and measurables. I would take any ND TE from the past 20 years excluding Koyack over Mack. Fair point on DeX, but Jafar was out most of the season hurt.
Counterx3: Mack had twice as many receiving yards in 2018 than the rest of our returning TEs have in their entire careers combined. And Dex missed 4 games due to suspension. And I’m an ND fan, so I’m not sure if full-on optimism is even legal.
I think we’ll be better at both WR & TE and deeper if not as explosive at RB.
The potential is absolutely there at WR & TE to blow 2018’s production away. And I’m hopeful. At the same time, I’m looking at Kmet/Wright/Young/Austin as a group of guys with 400 career receiving yards, plus a bunch of dudes who have never seen the field. Makes me nervous.
And I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to bet that we do not get more rushing yardage from this year’s group of RBs than we did last year, unless the O Line makes some absolutely enormous strides. (Basically, in summation, I’m just really really sad Dex is gone)
I don’t think any RB will be as good as Dex, or particularly close. But I think it would be pretty easy for them to out produce the RBs from last year, mostly because Dex missed 1/3 of the season, and Armstrong missed a lot of time.
Basically, the backups this year look like they could easily match 600 yds (TJJ 230 + JA 380), and Armstrong could surpass 1,000 (DW 995).
So the peak/talent won’t be as high, but if health is good, it shouldn’t be too difficult to surpass the production.
They might be able to match the overall production but will they do it with the same kind of explosiveness that DW gave us. That’s going to be likely the biggest downgrade. If we can increase explosiveness with Book’s passing then it may be just fine. But DW seemed to provide most of the explosive plays (next to Boykin I suppose who is also gone).
This is a good point. It’s also been talked about all spring as one of ND’s main concerns.. More explosive plays. I think it will be addressed. I think you will see more pays down field with the WRs and TE. Armstrong will add some too.