You guys know I’m a little obsessive about basketball coaching. In-game operations and the X’s and O’s of the game fascinate me. I love taking something as beautiful and chaotic as basketball and breaking it down. Pile on love for my dear alma mater, any you have a recipe for obsessiveness.
Let’s apply that obsessiveness for good by breaking down Mike Brey’s press conference following the Wake Forest game Tuesday. If you want to re-live the skid-breaking win, check out Paddy’s excellent recap here. Brey provided a treasure trove of program insights in his postgame comments.
Let’s go through his message in order…
Opener
The emphatic opener is part and parcel with his foray into the Lep Legion after the final buzzer. The weight of losses often hang heaviest on the coach, and Brey wanted everyone to feel that weight coming off the program. His traditional praise of the opponent is always wise, and stumping to get Manning’s team in to the tournament is just plain good karma.
We move to 7-5 in @accmbb…
Have to believe @NDMikeBrey was pumped up about it!!! pic.twitter.com/vogGBBzJII— Notre Dame MBB (@NDmbb) February 8, 2017
The fact Brey takes so much pleasure in seeing “88 on the board,” is indicative of the kind of basketball he loves. Flowing offense with healthy pace is Brey’s natural inclination. Seeing his team find some flow and put up their most efficient performance since December 4th was a great relief.
Brey also admitted that his desire to find some flow and putting up 52 points in a half comes at a cost. He’s perfectly willing to trade out rebounding deficits for offensive efficiency. Brey designed his program to out-score you, not out-leap you.
The fatigue he and his team feels is real. Brey lives and dies on the sideline every possession. He plays his top guys over than 80% of the minutes in conference play. It was a big deal that the ACC wouldn’t accommodate the Irish and push this game back to Wednesday. Of course, as Brey notes later, by winning Tuesday, he buys an extra day of happy rest before facing FSU. You can’t overestimate the fatigue of losing. To their credit, this group expects greatness. They assume their going to win. Four in a row and five of six had to be wearing on them.
Strategy Insights
Brey indicates he’s falling in love with his small-ball lineup. For the vast majority of the second half in Greensboro, and throughout most of Tuesday evening, Brey played a single big man. By moving Martinas Geben and Austin Torres out of the starting line-up, Brey is defaulting to his “downshift” group. Throughout the night, Geben and Torres played a combined total of six minutes. Four of those minutes were with Bonzie Colson off the court. Only 2 of them coincided with Colson in a two-big look.
When the Irish go with Colson at the 5 and either Beachem or Vasturia at the 4, things start to look more like the ACC Championship team. However, instead of 6’10” Zach Auguste playing the lone big, 6’5″ Bonzie Colson is called upon.
I know Brey loves offense, but let’s start with the defensive impact of this shift. First, you’re asking Colson to guard a traditional 5-man, as he had to Tuesday. While it isn’t ideal, Bonzie’s prolific wingspan allows him to bother shots around the rim. He came up with five blocks Tuesday. You’d love to see Colson with a little bulkier lower body (sand in the pants) to be able to bump for position down low, but he makes it work. For all the amazing things Colson does, defensive footwork is not his jam. Keeping him around the rim where his reach can bother shots and he can collect misses is wise.
Speaking of defensive footwork, Brey also talks about how his smaller line-up puts VJ Beachem closer to the rim. Brey went to this defensive look against Syracuse, and did again Tuesday. By putting Beachem around the rim and asking him to alter/block shots, he’s doing two critical things. First, he’s keeping VJ from getting worked on the perimeter. He’s struggled throughout his career to keep agile wings in front of him. That job can be left to Rex or Steve Vasturia. Second, he’s making it much easier to get VJ involved on the defensive glass. When closing down shooters or working on the perimeter, Beachem tends to be less engaged in defensive rebounding. He only grabbed one on Tuesday, but he did keep some critical balls alive and at least gave a second body in the mix to fight for the ball.
Let’s be honest. These are secondary considerations in the Irish basketball program. The first and foremost priority is offensive efficiency, and the 5-out lineup with Colson is almost impossible to defend. Unlike Auguste, who was most dangerous when going downhill towards the rim, Colson is at his best when he gets to bounce the ball a little. When Bonzie catches the ball on the perimeter, you can try to play him straight up with your 5 man, but he best be comfortable away from the rim. Wake’s bigs struggled with Bonzie all night. The obvious solution is to hedge some help towards Colson when he puts it on the floor. However, where do you bring that help from when ND has 4 other guys shooting 40% from deep? If you help off him, you give up 1.2ppp, but if he’s abusing you, he’s easily good for 1.5ppp or better against your big. If Bonzie starts stroking the three himself, God help you.
Before you start going all Charles Barkley on me and saying jumpshooting teams can’t win consistently, let’s talk. If you have 1-2 guys on your roster capable of going off from deep, that’s probably true. If, somehow, you amass 5-6 of those kind of guys, different story. The Irish aren’t dependent on one hot hand. This season, Vasturia, Farrell, Ryan, Beachem, Gibbs, and Pflueger all shoot better than 38% from deep. They can truck guys out there until they find the one ready to fire at will. With six legitimate options, you’re bound to find one or two that work any given night.
You are going to see a heavy dose of the 5-out look the balance of this season. Brey is going to challenge opponents to figure out how to stop Bonzie while still covering up four shooters on the floor. Whether they use a pick and pop motion to get Bonzie the ball or make a straight entry pass to the block or high post, Bonzie is going to drag his man away from the rim. Once he has you out there, the full array of moves go on display. In particular, the ball fake and step-thru he scored on Tuesday sent my heart pitter-pattering.
The other thing this opens up, as it did Tuesday, is the 4/5 PnR. If you insist on putting 2 bigs on the floor vs. ND, they’re going to put you in a very uncomfortable position. Everyone practices defending PnR with a big setting for a small. Your bigs learn to hedge and recover or blitz ball screens all the time. What they don’t work on, however, is how to play the ball when their guy is receiving the screen. This is a fantastic way to free up Beachem for clean looks or getting him attacking the rim downhill. We saw this a few times Tuesday, and I hope we see more of it going forward. It could be particularly useful against teams like FSU and NC State, who leverage multiple bigs.
Nothing in this world is free, and the cost of this dangerous offensive combination is size and rebounding. The numbers from Tuesday night bear this out perfectly. If you look at the four factors, the Irish had a slight advantage in the turnovers, and the teams were dead-even from the charity stripe. Wake Forest rebounded a whopping 38% of their misses, leading to 70 field-goal attempts. Notre Dame only attempted 59 field-goals on the evening. That’s a massive disparity. You better be a well-above-average shooting team to survive a minus-eleven difference. Thankfully, Tuesday, Notre Dame was. By shooting an effective 60% from the floor to Wake’s 46%, Brey’s team closed that gap, and then some.
In Notre Dame’s five ACC losses, the opponent has grabbed over a third of their misses. North Carolina snared nearly half in Greensboro. While the smaller line-up is necessary to drive the ND offense, Brey needs to find a way to shore up the boards. Keeping Beachem around the rim could help this. Moreso, he needs to ask his guards to scrape back and rebound. I know we want to leak out and run, but if we could keep the OREB percentages down to a third or less, we’ll be in much better shape. We’re good enough in the half-court, that I think the trade is worth it.
Aside from X’s and O’s, the downshift line-up impacts game management. With the heavy minutes Colson has to log up front, rest becomes an issue. Brey is forced to use his time outs to get second half rest for his critical guys. This could be costly in a game where you need a timeout to save a late possession or get things organized. Those of us who like to see Brey keep 1-2 TO’s in his pocket for late game situations have to accept the trade-off of keeping Colson fresh and rested down the stretch.
Program Insights
Brey provided another peek behind the curtain of his program Tuesday night. When asked about John Mooney and Elijah Burns, Brey heaped praise on his young bigs. He said they were both good with the ball. He praised Mooney’s shooting and ability to stretch the floor. Along with NDN’s Kayo, I figured the thing keeping Brey’s young bigs off the floor was defense. I presumed they were struggling with help rotations and communication. Brey said it was actually the offensive movement keeping them strapped to the pine.
Brey likes how they’re coming along and he’s leveraging his upperclassmen to reinforce his plans for both young men. The barrier for them is understanding how to maintain spacing on the offensive end.
I’m curious how our readers feel about this whole thing. Alstein and I have had a running dialog about it. Both of us feel like Mooney gives you spacing with his shooting and another big body to bang around on defense. Unless he’s awful with the ball, which Brey says is false, I can’t see the downside of giving him some run. I also wonder how much this indicates that Brey is ready to move on from Geben and Torres. Their lack of minutes in a very critical game, against a team with size, is telling. Matt Ryan got another chance to impact a game on Tuesday and struggled to do so.
Looking at the ND roster, you have these options up front:
- Colson – Junkyard Bonz is putting up All-ACC performances night in and night out
- Torres – Good energy, but that energy needs to deliver some output. He hurts offensive flow because you don’t have to defend him with the ball. Needs to pull down big-time defensive rebounding numbers to get on the floor.
- Geben – He’s made some big leaps forward and looks good from time to time, but he also clogs the offensive flow. He’s an underrated passer and ND could run offense through him on the block, but it seems they’ve moved away from that option.
- Ryan – I’m not sure what to say any more. Matt Ryan has tremendous potential to stretch the floor, but to do that, he’s got to cut hard on offense. He’s got potential to deform the opponent’s defensive scheme, but hasn’t. Defensively, he’s struggled at both the 3 and the 4.
- Mooney – Here’s a guy that seems like he could help with both spacing and defensive rebounding. I’m not sure what’s keeping him on the bench. His eligibility is burnt, so a little bit of ACC seasoning could be helpful.
- Burns – Another guy who looks like he has the bulk and athleticism to be helpful on the glass. If he truly is good with the ball in his hands, Ryan Humphrey should be spending a lot of time with the red-shirt freshman getting spacing right. That’s a coachable thing, and he’s another one who isn’t saving any more eligibility.
Brey has certainly earned the fans’ trust, but I’m struggling to explain the downside of giving these guys a few minutes here and there. The closest I can come is guessing that he wants to preserve his messaging around “the plan” while keeping Torres and Geben engaged. What do you think?
Tuesday also revealed an endearing program insight. The “Loosest Coach in America” is anything but. Brey is a fiery competitor who cares deeply about his program and his guys. The losses tear at the fabric of his soul. In a moment of lovable candor, he admitted this has been ripping him apart. While feeling his insides tightening and churning, Brey put on a calm, loose, happy face for his squad.
I don’t know Mike Brey personally, so I shouldn’t pretend to be in his head, but I admire his ability to fake it until he makes it. To me, it isn’t surprising that the most successful post-seasons of his time in South Bend correspond with Steve Vasturia’s presence on campus. Onions has to be one of the most calm and chill personalities to come through Notre Dame, and that vibe helps his coach. I’m not sure you could get Vasturia wound up if you tried. He exudes confidence and calm all the time. That’s a good thing for Brey and has been a great thing for the Irish program. That Felix and Oscar pairing has delivered consecutive Elite Eight appearances. Let’s hope Brey can find the right levers to pull and strings to pluck to keep the success rolling for the Irish.
Great write-up!
I was wondering why Brey took a seemingly random timeout with 5 minutes left on Tuesday; now I get it.
I’m glad he’s going to commit to the small lineup. Geben just hasn’t looked useful at all lately, and if Torres isn’t getting offensive putbacks, he’s a waste on offensive. Brey’s good teams have always been able to outscore you; let’s just get back to that.
Offensively, I’m disappointed in Matt Ryan’s season. I never expected him to be good defensively, but he refuses to move without the ball. If he isn’t cutting and working off screens constantly, there’s really no reason to have him on the floor. I hope we see a healthy dose of Pflueger and Gibbs Saturday, with some Geben mixed in. I don’t expect to see Ryan or Torres on the court for more than just 2 or 3 minutes, even against a team with such incredible depth.
As for Burns and Mooney, I think I’ll just have to trust Brey’s judgment. I have no idea if they are worthwhile players at this point since he refused to give them any run against the weak nonconference teams. I still don’t really understand the point of scheduling so poorly outside of conference if we aren’t going to use those games against the really really atrocious teams to test out our depth.
Really good point on Ryan’s offense. He always seems to be looking for the ball on the perimeter, and he rarely makes intelligent cuts. ACC opponents know he’s a shooter, so they just get right in his grill when he receives it. He hasn’t shown the ability to take anyone off the dribble like Vasturia can, so he usually just ends up swinging the ball and not offering much. The only times he has really looked effective have been against lower-tier opponents who leave him wide open looks. I hope he can figure this stuff out next year with more minutes, as he is undeniably skilled. I just doubt he offers much this year.
The Mooney thing is just frustrating because Brey spent all last week talking about getting him in there. If he doesn’t have the feel of the offense, then why even bring it up? It’s not like that changed in the last week. I’ve pretty much given up playing the “why doesn’t Brey extend his bench/try this guy?” game, but when he brings it up, you’re damn right I want to see the new guy!
Just for fun, in the last game against FSU, the Bonzie/Farrell/Vasturia/Beachem+Gibbs lineup was +8 and the +Rex lineup was +3. If that’s our primary configuration, maybe we’ll have some more success against them on Saturday and get the win.
I’m so foolish, I’m kinda hoping we might even neutralize out some of the bad breaks that went against ND in Tallahassee. That was the game that really sent me off the deep end on ACC conspiracy theory madness.
FSU has had a much easier time against teams that play traditional bigs, so if we could get a few friendly bounces, soft rims, and neutralize the 5v8 impact, we might have a pretty good chance.
One thing that I’m shocked hasn’t come up with Brey (or on here) is the apparent abandonment of the 2-3. Earlier in the year, it was mildly effective as a change-up defense. It helped keep poor shooting teams off balance and was pretty prominent in the hot start.
I think we might have seen 10 total possessions of zone in the last 5 or 6 games.
That’s fine by me. I’ve hated our zone for a while. I actually think it makes rebounding more complicated and we get a little static in it sometimes. I’m just curious how/why it disappeared so completely.
I could see it coming back Saturday. With their size, there are going to be streaks where they absolutely abuse us in the post for 4 or 5 straight possessions. I could see Brey tossing it in there to try to mix things up (although I hope he doesn’t). I agree with you, I think we get incredibly lazy (or maybe complacent is the more correct term) in the zone, so I hope we stay far away from it other than maybe 1 or 2 possessions per half, max.
Great job on this, Joe.
The front court situation is fascinating, as it is commonly cited as our weakness, yet we have so many guys that we have to figure out how to piece together over the next few years.
I think Geben and Torres have been cemented as role players. Torres has always been the energy guy, and Brey has praised him for understanding and accepting that role. If Geben was ever going to become a 20+ minute big man, it felt like it had to be this year. He wasn’t a colossal failure by any stretch, but you just get the feeling that Brey’s heart is with the downshift lineup, and Geben doesn’t offer enough to justify big minutes.
Ryan remains frustrating, and while I don’t think he’ll work his way into the main rotation this late in the season, his skill set may be much less redundant next year. Losing Steve and VJ will put a slight damper on our 3-point shooting. We’ll still have Farrell and Gibbs, and while Pflueger has a good percentage this year, he doesn’t seem like he’ll ever be a high-volume bomber. I’m not sure how proficient DJ Harvey will be from 3, so it looks like Ryan might be our biggest shooting weapon if he can figure the rest of his game out.
I definitely agree that Mooney is the most intriguing. His spacing and rebounding would be beautiful to introduce to this lineup. I suppose we haven’t seen him defend much, but as you said, that doesn’t seem to be Brey’s primary concern. I’m excited for his future regardless.
Burns has the cloudiest future to me, just because I feel like we haven’t had a player like him for some time. He doesn’t have the size of a true 5, but he also doesn’t space the floor as a stretch 4. I guess he occupies a somewhat similar space to Bonzie Colson as a power forward, but obviously with less offensive polish. Will we be able to play lineups with 2 bigs when Burns enters the rotations? Seems like spacing could suffer a bit, but I guess we haven’t seen enough of him to decide either way.
It’ll be fun to see how it all plays out, but for the rest of this year, it looks like we’ll probably just continue with the downshift.
The 2 big lineup with Burns might be able to work, as long as he’s paired with Bonzie or Mooney. Most teams have at least 1 guy who can’t shoot from outside; usually it’s just their 5, not their 4. I doubt we ever see him on the floor with Geben or Torres, but hopefully he can play well alongside Mooney or Colson next year.
Let’s not assume he can’t shoot just because he wasn’t the three point shooter Mooney was in high school. Burns was a good midrange shooter in high school. Not sure if he’s been able to extend it out to the arc in these last two years, but he can step out and make a shot, which is plenty good enough to space the floor.
Listened to Brey’s radio show. He said he hasn’t spent any time on recruiting, he’s been focusing on this squad. That’s highly concerning to me after just pulling in a 1 man 2017 class. Unless he thinks there a surprise commitment coming here for the 2017 class (which seems unlikely since they already said Torres is coming back for a 5th year), it would seem his staff should be putting in extra time on 2018 recruiting, not completely ignoring it.
That’s not all that unusual for him in the meat of the conference schedule. Are the assistants out/making calls? That would be bad if they aren’t keeping up with prospects, but I imagine that they are. I know Ryan Ayers just visited Jalen Carey last week.
We’ll see where they are in April. Spring/summer is go-time for recruiting. Obviously, you have to set yourself up for success when that time comes, but just because Brey isn’t doing much about it or we don’t get much reporting on who they are keeping up with doesn’t mean they aren’t in good position privately.
I’m not saying they’re in good/bad position, but I feel like this happens every year. Everyone is freaking out during the season, then the season ends and all of a sudden we are the clear leader for TJ Gibbs or whoever. Who knows? Maybe he feels good about a transfer to help level out numbers. I guess we’ll see.