The 2016 Notre Dame defense is missing some multi-year stalwarts from last year’s team. It’s a bit more difficult to be as bullish as we were for the offense review yesterday, but take heart folks, there’s still hope. Honest. We’ll take a look at each new starter and what the future might hold for his replacement.
2015 DT: Sheldon Day
2016 DT: Jerry Tillery
Sheldon Day was a four-year starter, a leader, and a disruptive force – he logged 33 tackles last year, which is respectable for a defensive tackle, but more importantly he also recorded 15.5 tackles for loss and 13 quarterback hurries. Jerry Tillery, meanwhile, was the rarest of rarities at Notre Dame as a true freshman defensive tackle who actually contributed. Even so, he faded somewhat down the stretch and was sent home during bowl preparation for a violation of team rules. It’s a lot to ask of any true sophomore defensive lineman to replace Day’s production, of course, so it’s no shame to Tillery here to say that it would be a big bonus if he can even get close to that level. Practice reports have him playing with his hair on fire so far, which gives some cause for optimism.
2015 NG: Daniel Cage
2016 NG: Jarron Jones
I almost didn’t include this position, since Jarron Jones is hardly your garden variety new starter. However, he did miss all of last season, so here he is. Daniel Cage performed admirably in his stead last year but isn’t cut out to do the kind of game-wrecking we saw from Jones in Tallahassee in 2014. If Jones can stay healthy all season, adding that disruptive force back while allowing Cage to move into a rotation role for both interior spots should make the defensive line much stronger overall. If.
2015 WDE: Romeo Okwara
2016 WDE: Andrew Trumbetti/Jay Hayes/Daelin Hayes
Many Irish fans will no doubt point to the next position in our review as the biggest question mark/concern, but for me, it’s weak side defensive end. Romeo Okwara made tremendous strides in 2016, logging 43% of his career tackles (49), 66% of his career tackles for loss (13.5), and 72% of his career sacks (9). Those nine sacks placed Okwara 27th nationally in 2015 and were the most for an Irish player since Stephon Tuitt’s 11 in 2012. Adding to the natural difficulty of replacing that production is the fact that there isn’t a clear-cut choice to replace him, as the position likely be manned by a committee in 2016. Andrew Trumbetti seems likely to draw most of the snaps against passing teams, while Jay Hayes will take the lead against running teams. True freshman Daelin Hayes, who is the most naturally gifted pass rusher of the three, will be deployed situationally in an effort to ease him into play at the next level and protect his surgically-repaired shoulder.
Matching Okwara’s 2015 production would be a tremendous win here, and a sizable feather in defensive line coach Keith Gilmore’s cap. The 18 Stripes magic eight ball says: “Outlook is cloudy.”
2015 WILL: Jaylon Smith
2016 WILL: Greer Martini/Te’Von Coney
There’s no sugar-coating this one – for the second time in four years, Notre Dame has to replace a generational talent at linebacker. Jaylon Smith, who like Manti Te’o before him claimed the Butkus Award, would’ve been a sure-fire top ten draft pick without his bowl game injury; more importantly for the Irish, he was a three year starter, a leader, and served as The Great Eraser of Mistakes last year at the second level. Greer Martin and Te’Von Coney need to forget about trying to be Jaylon, because it’s not going to happen. The good news is that the 2016 Notre Dame defense shouldn’t need them to be Jaylon – if they can produce solid play at WILL, that should be enough to hold down the fort. Both players have looked promising in small sample sizes.
2015 MLB: Joe Schmidt
2016 MLB: Nyles Morgan
Poor Joe Schmidt, like Tommy Rees on the other side of the ball, was thrust into a situation beyond his control, performed as well as he could, and was savaged by large portions of the fan base for it. You can’t win for trying, it would seem… There’s no question that Nyles Morgan is a tremendous upgrade on Schmidt athletically (sorry, Joe). In his third year in the program and under Brian VanGorder’s tutelage, can Morgan bring the same level of mental acuity to the defense that Schmidt did? There are reasons to believe that other changes in personnel will lesson the load on the Mike to handle the brainwork for the entire defense this season, which should make Morgan’s job somewhat easier. I’ll predict significantly improved play from this position, and slightly improved play from the linebacker corps as a whole as a result.
2015 CB: Keivarae Russell
2016 CB: Shaun Crawford/Nick Coleman
Keivarae Russell was a revelation as a true freshman converted running back on Notre Dame’s surprise championship contender in 2012. His play dipped a bit as a sophomore when his responsibilities expanded, and then he developed considerable rust when he missed all of his junior season in the Frozen Five academic fiasco. Last year, it took him a while to shake that rust off and he had some moments where it seemed his head wasn’t quite in the game. He was a senior and a tremendous athlete, and he’s right on the edge of catching on with the Kansas City Chiefs after being drafted in the third round, so I don’t mean to downplay his loss. But I’m not as convinced as many others are that Russell’s 2016 production will be hard to replace; in fact, I think we might actually see an improvement from more consistent play there. Shaun Crawford, and Nick Coleman when Crawford slides inside to the nickel, have all the physical tools and have each looked excellent in camp. Crawford in particular has been a nightmare for Irish receivers.
2015 NB: Matthias Farley
2016 NB: Shaun Crawford
Matthias Farley was the ultimate team player, shuffling from wide receiver to safety to cornerback to nickel back, where as a fifth year senior he lost the starting role to true freshman Shaun Crawford and still didn’t complain. That Farley was named a captain as a reserve nickel back should speak volumes about his demeanor, work ethic, and leadership value. That leadership presence in the secondary will have to come from senior captain Cole Luke in 2016, but Farley’s on-field contributions will most likely be succeeded by Crawford’s. Farley reclaimed the starter spot here when Crawford went down with an ACL injury in fall camp last year; while somewhat limited in coverage, he was excellent in run support, particularly against the option teams. Crawford, meanwhile, has reversed strengths, excelling in coverage but not quite so effective in run support due to his size. The Irish likely will get better pass defense out of this spot from Crawford and use different packages against the more physical teams, such as placing Drue Tranquill in the box more regularly or sliding a bigger corner like Nick Coleman or Donte Vaughn inside.
2015 SS: Elijah Shumate
2016 SS: Drue Tranquill
Elijah Shumate is yet another multi-year starter, who despite somewhat mixed results had been a steady presence in the Irish defensive backfield. He also had arguably the most glorious touchdown that will never count… #RememberThe6. Shumate was a physical force but was less effective in coverage; at 6’1″ and 220 pounds, he was very nearly a borderline linebacker playing safety. Drue Tranquill might be a little sharper in coverage but won’t make anyone confuse him with a corner, and is similarly physical at the point of attack. He might be slightly more versatile, but you can safely expect replacement level play from Tranquill in 2016. Anything more is gravy.
2015 FS: Max Redfield
2016 FS: Avery Sebastian/Devin Studstill
Oh, Max. Max, Max, Max… The star-crossed career of Max Redfield came to what perhaps should be a predictably early conclusion recently when he was arrested for gun and drug possession on a – something – mission, an hour from campus. As talented as Redfield was he could never quite piece a consistent season together, as summarized quite nicely in the last 12 months – a nice play here and there (pick against USC), a boneheaded play here and there (vacating the center of the field against BC), getting sent home during bowl prep, making strides during the summer leadership camp, and then blowing it all to kingdom come with a mind-bogglingly poor late-night decision. Enter sixth year senior Avery Sebastian and true freshman Devin Studstill, who made waves in the spring as an early enrollee and even threatened Redfield’s hold on the starting job. For all the talk about how Brian VanGorder obviously needed to simplify his defense to take the shackles off an uber-athlete like Redfield, Studstill seemed to get up to speed with it very quickly.
The official depth chart released yesterday listed Sebastian as the starter at free safety, but I’m covering both him and Studstill here because (a) I think Studstill will play, and play a lot, and (b) unfortunately, given his history, I’d be surprised if Sebastian can make it through an entire season unscathed. While depth at the position is now an enormous concern with Redfield gone, I think we’ll actually benefit from more consistent play if one of Sebastian and Studstill stays healthy. In fact, following a prop bet laid down by Scout’s Tim O’Malley, I’ll take the over on whether 2016 free safety production can top Redfield’s career production in interceptions (2) and passes broken up (4).
We’re only playing nine people on defense this season? FIRE VANGORDER.
SO AGGRESSIVE!
It’s the dreaded Cover -2 Blitz, a staple of defensive guys in the Rex Ryan coaching tree.
“We’ll take a look at each new starter and what the future might hold for his replacement.”
Stil concerning, we’re only returning 2 starters FIRE VANGORDER (but more like 3 with Jones)
Crap maybe he’s in on the joke…I need sarcasm font
Actually, we seem to be returning THREE starters, since one of those listed is the Nickel position and therefore technically not the starter.
So, Onwualu at Sam, Rochell at SDE, and Luke at CB.
You could also make quasi-starter cases for Cage (started seven of the first nine games last year before a concussion against Pitt set him back) and Trumbetti and Tillery (each started three games and played 12). Also, Morgan and Coleman played in all 13 games and Coney played in 12 of 13, and of course Morgan started four games in 2014 after Schmidt went down. Not the same as being The Guy, of course, and for Morgan and Coleman most of that time was probably on special teams, but they’re not completely green. So there’s that, at least.
I’d say you’re sure right that it’s going to be difficult to replace the production (mainly tackles for losses) that Day+Okwara had on the d-line, but I’m not worried too much there due to the talent and depth there. And there’s the hope that they can find a pass rush specialist somewhere from a younger guy to maybe even bring more sacks than last year as well.
The LB’s and safeties seem a lot more problematic. Schmidt’s bad moments may stand out and be memorable but there was a reason he never left the field and not just for the mental and pre-snap stuff. He was a mostly good linebacker. Jaylon was a total stud. Big shoes to feel at that second level and beyond at safety. It will be a challenge but also an opportunity that hopefully guys like Morgan and Coney can rise to the occasion.
I’ve been a defender of Schmidt, just like I was a defender of Rees. Do people really believe that the coaches, whose job security, whose family’s ability to eat, relies on winning games, will play a guy who is dramatically worse than another guy because they think he’s a good dude? That said… Pro Football Focus, the same guys who ranked our offensive line #1 preseason this year, ranked Joe Schmidt as the fourth-worst linebacker in FBS last year. And, statistically speaking, he did miss a ton of tackles and make a bunch more further downfield than he should’ve.
I think he was a “mostly good” linebacker in 2014. I think he was really dinged up in 2015 and, thanks to the ankle injury, lost just enough agility to outweigh his ability to compensate mentally for lesser athleticism. I’m fairly confident that Morgan, in his third year in the system, will do just fine mentally, and of course he’ll be a big upgrade athletically. How the corps as a whole replaces Jaylon is obviously the biggest question mark on defense. I don’t know how that one will shake out yet, but I’m not ready to flush it either.
“Do people really believe that the coaches, whose job security, whose family’s ability to eat, relies on winning games, will play a guy who is dramatically worse than another guy because they think he’s a good dude?”
No, of course not. Not just because he’s a “good dude.” They obviously play him because they think he’s the best choice at LB.
That does not mean, however, that they can’t be wrong in their assessment of the situation. The world is full of people who make poor decisions, thinking that they are making the right decision. Hence why I don’t fault Schmidt–I fault the LB coach and DC. If Schmidt really was the best choice for Mike last year, then how am I supposed to be excited for Morgan this year? But if Morgan is as good as his hype has been this off-season, how could he have been worse than Schmidt last year? No matter which way the logic loop closes, it doesn’t reflect well on the coaching in my opinion. I have a very had time constructing a logical scenario where Morgan didn’t deserve to see the field at least a little bit behind a struggling Schmidt, yet is talented and smart enough to replace him this year and be great. The only one that fits is that for some reason the coaches didn’t feel Morgan could “get” the system and spell Schmidt, even a little bit, but once they no longer had Schmidt they realized they had to get Morgan up to speed and make adjustments for him to work, and at least in practice it has worked. So my conclusion is that the big mistake was not getting Morgan worked in, even somewhat, last year, thereby limiting Schmidt’s workload and probably making him a better player as well.
Of course, they’re smarter than me, I don’t see practices, etc., etc. But it still doesn’t track cleanly that Morgan couldn’t take any snaps from the fourth worst linebacker in FBS last year, but will be a star this year.
I hang it on Morgan that he was not on the field more. Maybe he is overrated (blasphemy), maybe as a younger player (2nd year in the system last year vs. Joe’s 5th) he wasn’t in a position to understand the entire defense, which is noted for it’s complexity. I don’t know what they problem was, but the things I saw from him on the field in the last two seasons never really made me wonder why Schmidt was out there most snaps.
I hope (and think) that he will improve drastically this year (insert “light will finally come on for Max Redfield this season” joke here), but that doesn’t mean as a true sophomore he was at all capable of making up for his inability to lead and direct the defense with just athletic talent alone. Would Joe Montana have started a game if football were about athletic talent alone?
My understanding is that it wasn’t that Morgan couldn’t pick up the defense enough to play, but he couldn’t pick it up enough to keep the rest of the team together as well as Schmidt. If Morgan was great, but everybody else was in disarray on many snaps, opposing offenses could have easily worked around Morgan’s superior athleticism and achieved even better results. (That’s scary, and let’s never speak of it again.)
Hell, we don’t even know if Morgan would have missed those same tackles that everybody blames Schmidt for missing. I guess we’re gonna find out.
See, in my mind that means the coaching staff is implementing a system that isn’t suited to college. “Too complicated” or whatever you want to call if, if it requires one and only one player to run and keep everyone together, then you’ve got a built-in fail button. Even in the pros you wouldn’t want to place everything on one guy who could get injured. So I don’t buy the idea that no one else would have had a clue what they were doing if Joe was out of the game. If BVG’s system is that structurally flawed, we’ve got major problems.
Another point here, by the way – one of the complicating factors in the Schmidt/Morgan conundrum last year was that Schmidt had to do even more than a Mike would typically do. They’ve only done it very obliquely, because duh, but Kelly and VanGorder have referenced a couple of times between last year and this that in 2015, Schmidt had to get the entire defense lined up, not just the front seven. Kelly made the most direct comment on it in camp this year when he said that “communication in the secondary is better this year, which will lighten the burden on Nyles because he won’t have to worry about that” (paraphrasing but very close).
Essentially, they couldn’t trust Max to make the right pre-snap calls for the secondary last year, so Schmidt had to do that as well as align the front seven. That’s a lot to ask of a true sophomore in any defensive scheme.
I don’t think that VanGorder’s defense was so hyper-complicated that you needed a PhD in mechanical engineering to understand it. I also don’t think Redfield and Morgan were so far off the reservation that everything was their fault. I think, as usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle, with Redfield’s space cadettishness, Schmidt’s athletic deficiencies, and Morgan’s rawness combining with VanGorder’s complex scheme to make a perfect (poop)storm of inevitable ineffectiveness.
I’m optimistic that we’ll see steadier play at safety out of Sebastian and/or Studstill, with either of them fully taking the reins of the secondary. Until Sunday night, at least, I’m taking at face value VanGorder’s pledge to reduce the load on safeties and move to more single-high looks. If both of those happen, I think we’ll be fine and we could even move to “good.”
One thing we can agree on: a game pitting the 2015 ND Defense vs. the 2016 ND Defense would likely be the lowest point totals given up by either team.
Would this be the 2016 ND Defense on offense v the 2015 ND Defense on defense and vice versa? Who’s doing special teams?
Well, I guess the lights did finally turn on for Redfield this season…in the rear window of the car he was in.
Appropriately, only one of them did.
I suspect he means the cop’s lights, Brendan
@Don’t ruin my joke man.@
Upon further consideration…
Appropriately, those lights were on again, off again.
Ha! Delayed vindication, sort of! Reminds me of a passage from Travels with Charley where Steinbeck says he thought of a perfect comeback for a rude toll booth attendant, but two days later.
I thought I was the only one that does that.
I have the same question, KG. How does Morgan go from can’t cut it to star, in one fell swoop?
Either Kelly is hyping him like he was Redfield each year, and hoping the light switched on, or The safety’s inability to set the dbacks made it too much for Morgan. We’ll see how he does this year. If he plays like he has before, that will be pretty conclusive. I hope not, I hope he kills it.
By the way, you’re a language guy, what’s a “fell swoop”?
No idea–now, if it was in 12th century Japanese, I could help you there.
And that’s exactly my question–how does he go from can’t see the field, to leading the D? I don’t buy that kids just have the light “turn on”–not that dramatically.
Archaic use of “fell” is evil or cruel i.e. a fell demon. Swoop is a blow or a sudden descent. Put all that together to get one cruel blow or one fell swoop. We’re possibly using “one fell swoop” incorrectly since we’re discussing Morgan’s ascent to stardom, but I wouldn’t know for sure…
I stand in awe of you, Sir!
I have high hopes for Hayes on that weakside, that he could be the most dynamic young d-lineman ND has had since…well, that one guy we don’t talk about anymore.
But this unit seems to have plenty of talent, but more along the steady type of talent rather than being filled with gamechangers. I think that’ll be something that gets Hayes on the field more than we might initially expect.
Good call on Lynch. Hayes isn’t as powerful as Lynch was, which is why he’ll probably be pretty close to strictly a 3rd-and-long guy, but he’s quicker. He’s definitely the purest weakside end we’ve had since Lynch. I think BK talked about a passing-down defensive line of Jones and Rochell on the inside and Hayes and Trumbetti on the outside – that’s a group that could cause some serious disruption.
Minutia affects every organization. KG makes a great point about Schmidt and Morgan. The thing we need to keep in mind though, is we don’t know the entire situation. Morgan could have gotten into some kind of trouble and there was a disciplinary aspect to it. I absolutely see your point about Schmidt not being very good last year and Morgan should have been getting some work in KG. I just don’t think we are close enough to know.
I could buy the “we aren’t close enough to know” viewpoint if I trusted the D coaches. I don’t though.
Good points. I just want to jump in here and say that from everything I’ve read, there was definitely not a disciplinary issue with Morgan – the coaches have always been impressed with his work ethic and his dedication. He’s a film junkie and he has spent a ton of time one-on-one with VanGorder learning the defense. The NDInsider preview mag had a great piece with him where he talked about that. BVG speaks in glowing terms about him, and Morgan requites the affection.
I know you were just posing a hypothetical, and it’s generically possible, but to be fair to Nyles I wanted to call out that he hasn’t had anything like that.
Those comments are great to hear, but again have me scratching my head. Did Schmidt have compromising photos of BVG?
Sans mustache?
Off topic: How do you post a picture? The instructions on the Site Rules section do not seem to work. Or else I have posted the same picture several times without it ever showing up on my screen.
Just post the URL in the body, and the program does the rest. Like this:
Either this doesn’t work when I try it, or everybody can see one or two posts from me above that say “One fell Swoopes” and then have a picture of Tyrone being chased down by Jaylon Smith. I can’t see those posts, but I guess we all have our blind spots.
I don’t see those pics from you. Weird.
Or are you just saying that to make me post them again and again and again?
I don’t see your posts either. You don’t have to add images that way anymore – I really have to edit that page – you can just paste the link to the image. Just make sure it’s a direct link to the actual image, meaning it ends in .jpg, .gif, or .png. Otherwise the site won’t recognize it as an image.
In no way was I trying to imply that NM was in some kind of trouble. That was meant purely as an example of possibilities we don’t know about. Hell, I come here for insider information.
Oh, I know, I definitely took it that way. No worries. I could just see someone reading that and thinking, “you know, maybe he was in trouble,” and it becoming a thing.