The season is literally hours away and Notre Dame’s opponents have mostly picked their quarterbacks or narrowed down their choices considerably. There were a fair deal of off-season battles and before the games are played not all of these competitions are over.
For now, as we enter the first full week of kickoff I wanted to re-visit the quarterback situations for our 2016 schedule. Most of these situations played out as expected although there was a surprise or two.
Texas
Tyrone Swoopes or Shane Buechele
Seeking whatever advantage possible, Charlie Strong has refused to name a starter prior to Sunday night. The Horns officially shifted 2 quarterbacks over to wide receiver this fall–including last year’s most experienced starter Jerrod Heard–and are laying down all their chips for a resurgent Tyrone Swoopes or prodigal season from true freshman Shane Buechele.
We’ll have more in the Texas game preview but it would be a ballsy move to start Buechele against Notre Dame, although stranger things have happened. Both are expected to play a lot, though.
Nevada
Tyler Stewart
There was a thought that Nevada might have a QB competition this off-season but that didn’t play out at all. Stewart (6-4, 220) is a nice athlete who rushed for 322 yards and 4 scores a year ago but was really pedestrian throwing the ball with 57.1% accuracy, 6.6 YPA, and just 164.5 yards per game. He did have slightly higher than a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Still, don’t expect Stewart to be that good.
Michigan State
Tyler O’Connor
Coming out of spring it looked like O’Connor could be a co-starter with Damion Terry but the former solidified himself quite nicely during fall camp. There was some rumbling that the Spartans would rotate guys during the first few games but O’Connor gets the full nod from Dantonio with Terry in a battle against Brian Lewerke for 2nd-string reps.
O’Connor is largely unproven as a 5th-year senior coming into the season with 54 passing attempts. He did start in the upset of Ohio State last year but managed just 114 total yards.
Duke
Daniel Jones
A few months ago during our summer Duke preview it was still unclear whether returning starter Thomas Sirk would be healthy in time for the Notre Dame game. That question was answered recently as Sirk injured his Achilles for the third time and will miss the 2016 season.
Want another look at a #DukeGang practice? @Duke_BDN follows @Daniel_Jones10 for a workout. Video here https://t.co/xGbHs3VGs5
— Duke Football (@Duke_FB) August 27, 2016
Most thought the more experienced Parker Boehme would win the job without Sirk available but it’s been redshirt freshman Daniel Jones who vaulted himself into the No. 1 spot this fall. The former walk-on from Charlotte Latin School hit a late growth spurt and now stands 6-4 with good athleticism. The media positively fawns over David Cutcliffe so take this with a few pinches of salt, but Bruce Feldman has Jones as a major surprise this year with a 1st round ceiling.
Syracuse
Eric Dungey
The Orange had two quarterbacks pretty much split snaps last year and new head coach Dino Babers has decided to go with the much more athletic Dungey who is a true sophomore. There are whispers that Dungey could really blow up this year under Babers’ tutelage if he can stay healthy. Last year, Dungey missed 5 games with a pair of concussions and other ailments. His 162 passing yards and 43 rushing yards per game were solid in 2015 as were his 16 total touchdowns to just 5 interceptions.
NC State
Jalan McClendon or Ryan Finley
In our summer preview we had McClendon winning this job basically by default but Finley transferred in from Boise State and has reunited with his OC from last year. Now, both will play in the opener. McClendon has virtually zero experience having sat behind Jacoby Brissette in recent years. Finley won the starting gig with Boise State last year but had his season ended with an ankle injury in the third game.
Things weren’t going well up to that point anyway. Finley completed just 16 passes and no touchdowns against Washington and then threw 3 picks against BYU. He’s a redshirt junior who graduated early and will have 2 more years left to play in Raleigh.
Stanford
Ryan Burns
In a small upset the Cardinal will roll with redshirt junior Ryan Burns over the more highly touted redshirt sophomore Keller Chryst. Although this doesn’t look like a completely done deal as David Shaw has said Chryst will get some action, too.
Neither one has much experience but Burns really doesn’t at all and Chryst was the backup last year and got 9 measly pass attempts all season. The last time Stanford went through a quarterback switch their initial choice out of fall camp didn’t end up holding on to the job.
Miami
Brady Kaaya
No surprise here, Kaaya is a dark horse Heisman candidate.
Navy
Tago Smith
Also another job that was never in doubt. We can breath a sigh of relief that Keenan Reynolds is gone but Tago Smith might be pretty good.
Army
Ahmad Bradshaw
From our summer preview Cris Carter had a ton of momentum going into this off-season having played in the last two games of 2015 and performing really well. I guess it wasn’t enough as the year older Bradshaw wins the job for the second year in a row. His numbers were really weak across the board last year and I’m not sure if he’s the guy behind center by the time Notre Dame faces them in San Antonio.
Virginia Tech
Jerod Evans
If you’re afraid of Va Tech being an upset special their ceiling just got a little higher as highly touted JUCO quarterback Jerod Evans won the job in Blacksburg. Justin Fuente talked a lot about protecting the football as his primary concern and Evans carried that ability over from his sensational season at Trinity Valley C.C. last year.
JEROD EVANS = @VT_Football STARTING QB 💪🏼🏈@CoachFuente talks outcomes, execution, & the QB decision #Hokieshttps://t.co/UJiS5MlxSG
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) August 26, 2016
In 2015, Evans totaled 3,578 yards of offense and just 3 interceptions in 8 games. He’s big and he can move. Evans is definitely someone who could become a star out of nowhere this year.
USC
Max Browne
Our rivals named redshirt junior and former 5-star Max Browne their starter. Yet, it might not be a completely 100% type of deal. Clay Helton has both stated he’d like to have just one starter but the Trojans are also open to using redshirt freshman Sam Darnold–a much more mobile option–in short-yardage situations.
It’s been a long wait for Browne who has thrown only 19 passes in a Trojan uniform. I heard he has to play a pretty talented defense on Saturday night.
Recap
These things never seem to go the way everyone predicts. Still, at this juncture the selection of quarterbacks above is eminently manageable. Kaaya sits way atop the heap and then there’s a large divide below him. I think both Michigan State and Stanford are going to see decent regression from this position, which in and of itself, could severely soften this schedule.
Anything could happen at USC, who knows. I suppose Browne could blossom into the 5-star everyone thought he’d be but their schedule is brutal and I’m telling you he’s going to be abused this weekend by Alabama.
That leaves young players with decent potential at Duke, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech who quite possibly could fill the second, third, or fourth best quarterbacks on this schedule. In reality, maybe only one out of that group (likely Evans) develops into a legit good quarterback this year. I also wouldn’t sleep on Tago Smith as he’s a good fit at Navy and we know how that goes.
While I’m typically a rather pessimistic fan, I’m full of confidence heading into this season-opening showdown with Texas because of the likelihood the ‘Horns start a true freshman in Shane Buechele. Unless you have the services of an extremely rare talent at quarterback (thinking Andrew Luck, Josh Rosen, etc. here), starting a true freshman usually doesn’t end well. I think we all remember how Jimmy Clausen’s maiden voyage in ’07 went, and he might as well have been the second coming of Jesus Christ coming out of high school. I’m no fan of Brian VanGorder like most, but I don’t see the Texas offense doing much with Buechele running the show.
Plus didn’t his dad have a 2B arm?
ndmspaint!!! I’m a big fan of your work.
Great summary Eric – feels very much like 2012, when MSU was replacing Cousins, Stanford replacing Luck, and Barkley ended up injured and out so we got Max Wittek for USC. Similarly I think one of the incumbents on the schedule, Kaaya, may be a little overrated a la Landry Jones in 2012. Hopefully the matchups against inexperienced quarterbacks can help our potential coverage weaknesses at safety instead of the “wow, what a breakout game for Devin Gardner!”-type games that’s happened sometimes in the past.
Sounds like someone needs a lesson on how beautifully Denard Robinson placed his deep balls! (mind out of the gutter gents)
…and Tate Forcier never was given a fair shake!
Kind of seems unfair that Army gets 2 former NFL stars to compete for their QB job. I guess that’s a bit offset by the fact that neither played QB in the NFL.
At least we know they will have a fall man
Is Eric Dungey related to Tony Dungey? Or to Maurice Stovall?