The much anticipated ACC 10-game schedule was released yesterday, with the expected news finalized that Notre Dame will be included in the 10-game conference schedule and be eligible for the conference championship game (and Orange Bowl berth). It appears to be a perfect interim solution for fall football, if it can happen, in an insane year, with the only real Irish concession coming in the agreement to share all TV revenue for this season, including home NBC games.

 

The key details

Divisions will be scrapped for this season, with the two teams with the highest winning percentage advancing to the conference title game. This is the only sensible solution but is still full of holes – what is the tiebreaker if two teams are tied but didn’t play, for example, Notre Dame and Miami? What if Notre Dame is 8-2 in conference play, Miami has to cancel the Clemson game due to COVID-related impact, but then is 8-1? If this schedule ends up being played it’s likely there’s a result where teams have an unequal number of games played, so using winning percentage makes sense, but doesn’t at all promise to be fair.

The ACC announcement also includes a “plus one” non-conference game for each team. The tricky stipulation with this additional game is it must be played in the home state of the ACC school, ruling out neutral site games that had been scheduled or interstate rivalries. The obvious intent here is to keep historic rivalries like Florida-FSU, Georgia Tech-Georgia, Clemson-South Carolina, and Louisville-Kentucky on the table, pending the SEC agreeing to a similar structure.

For Notre Dame, these requirements complicate the plan for the Navy game, which has already changed locations once from Ireland to Annapolis. The ACC announcement seems to indicate the game would need to be played in South Bend, but some beat writers have implied having the game in any ACC home state would work – a group which Maryland no longer falls into. Possibilities here include the Midshipmen coming to South Bend and flipping a future game from home to away, getting an exception to move to a neutral ACC home site (borrow FedEx field or Virginia’s stadium?)

The new faces

The net effect for Notre Dame is a swap of Wisconsin, USC, Stanford, and Arkansas (and losing the Western Michigan game) for North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, and Syracuse. This is, without a doubt, an easier schedule – given the ACC’s history of fun scheduling and giving everyone a bye before facing the Irish, bracing for UNC, FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech was a reasonable expectation.

Very briefly –  let’s learn the lesson from the preseason brain space devoted to USC, Wisconsin, Stanford, and the rest – let’s look at these new opponents:

  • UNC (#17 SP+, #29 FPI) will likely be the toughest new opponent and Brian Kelly now gets to face Mack Brown three straight years as he begins assembling far more talented teams that the Heels have had in recent history. SP+ has almost exactly the same projections for Carolina as USC – a top-10 offense with only a top-50ish defense. Both have 1st round caliber QBs returning and extremely talented wide receivers, but the Trojans likely have more defensive upside and talented depth. Neither is a particularly awesome matchup for Notre Dame considering the uncertainty at non-Kyle Hamilton positions in the secondary, but consider this a small downgrade for the Irish schedule.
  • Florida State (#26 SP+, #26 FPI) will have a wide range of outcomes this year, but their ceiling may not be quite high enough to really threaten the Irish. Mike Norvell should provide an instant offensive upgrade and inherits an experienced starter in James Blackman and stud receiver Tamorrion Terry. The defense returns nearly everyone and as you’d expect from the Noles, there’s some elite talent in there highlighted by preseason All-American DT Marvin Wilson. But the weakness remaining at offensive line, switching schemes on both sides of the ball, and questions about Blackman’s upside mean this is probably only a top-25ish team even with significant improvement.
  • Boston College (71st SP+, 54th FPI) also is in transition, moving from the dudes of Steve Addazio to the Jeff Hafley era. Our old friend Phil Jurkovec could get the start, pending an NCAA waiver, and Hafley has managed to infuse some quick talent via transfers. But again there are major scheme changes, and the Eagles defense was abysmal last season (110th in SP+). This is a cushy addition to the schedule – maybe slightly better than Arkansas, but still, a very high probability win.
  • Syracuse (95th SP+, 88th FPI) absolutely fell off a cliff after a very nice 2018 (supported by an extremely kind schedule). The Orange offense was awful and loses most of their receiving production. The defense was also very bad and is 91st in returning defensive production per our friend Bill Connelly. It’s mean but fair to point out this game projects to be about as close as Western Michigan would have been.
Are the odds great or small?

Behold our beautiful new schedule that will definitely not change again! The Irish, as anticipated, should be favored in every game except Clemson. Each of these projections assumes no home-field advantage because there will likely be few if any fans present. Preseason projections should always be taken with some grains of salt, but this year, in particular, will be a challenge. What if projected 1st round picks opt out to go pro, as Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley announced yesterday? What if Tutu Atwell tests positive the week before the Notre Dame game?

Talented depth and flexibility will be a premium resource, which figures to benefit the most talented teams like Notre Dame and Clemson. Having a QB with any experience at all (hi Brendon Clark!) is also a luxury. Early oddsmakers have the Irish at about +700 to win the league, with Clemson a -550 favorite.

Overall SP+ projects an average of 8.33 wins in the 11 games for the Irish, or a projected winning percentage of about 75.7%. In the pre-pandemic schedule, SP+ had Notre Dame down for an average of 8.92 wins (win percentage 74.3%) so it sees things looking slightly up for the Irish. Again, if we want to assume nice things like a full season and a playoff, the big catch is that if ND is in playoff contention Dabo Swinney is likely to appear on the schedule for a second time, which complicates things. It could set up an ACC title game that’s all upside for the Irish or one where if there wasn’t a conference title game our lads would have already sewn up a playoff spot.