It’s that time of year where the college football season is winding down and we have data points on the coaches who are Doing Good Things. It’s been a weird year where a large group of coaches don’t have many data points to begin with so there’s a lot of questions about just how good or bad some of these men are doing in 2020. This could be potentially a hilarious article to look back on in a few years.
Nevertheless, we will push forward with our list of the best (and worst) for 2020 with the usual caveat that we’re not covering the super obvious coaches (Harbaugh, Fickell, Campbell, Herman, etc.) in most instances.
DOING GOOD THINGS
Philip Montgomery – Tulsa
Entering year 6 with the Golden Hurricane this ship didn’t look to be going anywhere. Despite a 10-3 record in his 2nd year with Tulsa they’ve lost at least 7 games in the 4 other seasons. Montgomery was consider a pretty good hire out of Baylor but kind of fell off the radar recently. Now, Tulsa is 6-1 overall in 2020, unbeaten in league play, and will face Cincinnati for the AAC Championship this weekend.
Jeff Hafley – Boston College
Maybe the least impressive submission on our list but not much was expected from Boston College this year and they finished their season 6-5 (they are declining a bowl bid) and transformed their offense into something far better than watching paint dry. Things are looking up!
Tom Allen – Indiana
National coach of the year, Tom Allen perhaps? The Hoosiers were knocking on the door last year (8-5) and have been maybe the biggest surprise of the season sitting at 6-1 with wins over Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They are locked out of the Big Ten Championship but should play in a very tasty bowl game.
Doc Holliday – Marshall
Holliday is one of the longest tenured coaches at a school right now and had things rolling for the Herd in the 2013-15 seasons going 33-8 before slumping down to 3-9 and 14 more losses from 2017-19. It sucks that Marshall is just coming off an embarrassing shutout loss to Rice but they’ve had a heck of a season so far.
Hugh Freeze – Liberty
I didn’t want to include him, but I have to do it as a respected journalist. Freeze has won 1o out of his last 11 games and would be unbeaten over that stretch if not for a 1-point loss to NC State a couple weeks ago. It’s too bad we didn’t get to see Liberty play Coastal Carolina two weekends ago.
Kalani Sitake – BYU
The BYU program felt like it was trending downward after hiring Sitake, now they’ve come out of nowhere and have become one of the top teams in the country with an entertaining quarterback. Their loss to Coastal Carolina was a set back but the Cougars are once again on the national scene in a big way.
Lance Leipold – BuffaloÂ
UB had quietly put together a nice 2-year run (18-9) leading into this season and while good things were expected in 2020 no one could’ve predicted this breakout. Leipold and the Bulls just finished a 5-0 undefeated regular season with an impressive +154 scoring differential. They’ll head into the MAC Championship Game as the highest scoring offense in the country.
Brent Brennan – San Jose State
Things weren’t easy for Brennan when he was hired in San Jose. The Spartans started 3-22 under his regime before improving to a much more respectable 5-7 last year. All of a sudden, SJSU became one of the best teams in the Mountain West completing a 6-0 season with every win by at least 10 points. You have to think Brennan is going to be an awfully attractive candidate for a lot of the larger West Coast programs.
Jamey Chadwell – Coastal Carolina
Coastal completed a thrilling last-second win this weekend to avoid the let down upset at the hands of Troy. They’re now 11-0 and set to play Louisiana in the Sun Belt title game. Chadwell had been pretty much an unknown prior to this year (besides a 2019 win at Kansas) and is reportedly ready to sign a huge extension to stay in Myrtle Beach.
Billy Napier – Louisiana
Napier’s success was a lot easier to see coming this year. In 2019, the Ragin’ Cajuns went 11-3 but were unable to beat Appalachian State for the Sun Belt crown. They’ll get that chance again when they face Coastal this upcoming weekend mentioned above. Last year, Louisiana beat Coastal by 41 points but this year that is their only defeat.
NOT DOING GOOD THINGS
Scott Satterfield – Louisville
Things have gone very poorly for Satterfield culminating in his weird handling of an interview with South Carolina last week. The Cardinals got back on track with a win at Wake Forest this past weekend but finished 2020 with a super disappointing 4-8 record. This should set up a very weird off-season in Louisville.
Dino Babers – Syracuse
Once upon a time, Babers was a hot coaching name. That now looks like one of the most bizarre memories of the past decade. Syracuse finished last in the ACC with a terrible 1-10 record that included a 30-0 loss to Satterfield’s Louisville team above. The team we saw in South Bend a couple weekends ago should be a lot better in 2021, but man, Babers seems to have lost the plot recently.
Dave Aranda – Baylor
Aranda picked a good time to bolt Baton Rouge. However, his new digs in Waco haven’t been treating him too well. The first-year head coach beat both Kansas schools in 2020 and…no one else. Some thought Baylor was poised to make some noise in the Big 12 and at least prior to the weekend the best you could say was that they lost a bunch of competitive games. Then, they finished their season with a 42-3 massacre at home by Oklahoma State.
Thomas Hammock – Northern Illinois
It feels like Northern Illinois has been solid to very good for as long as I can remember and then all of a sudden you look up and they’re terrible. I can’t believe Hammock will be long for this place. They just finished their season 0-6 and maybe weren’t quite as bad as Bowling Green but even being in that conversation is incredibly damning.
Mike Leach – Miss State
Florida couldn’t even beat LSU like Leach did in the opener. Things started so well for the Bulldogs! It’s blown up entirely since their first game my goodness. Their offense is a hot mess and they’ve scored 14 or fewer points in 5 games this season while only Vanderbilt has averaged fewer points overall in the SEC for 2020. Mississippi State finishes their season this weekend versus Missouri and will be favored to go 2-8 on the year.
Kevin Sumlin – Arizona [no longer employed]
When we added Sumlin to this list this past Friday afternoon he was a cool pick based on a very under-the-radar terrible job he was doing at Arizona. Then, he went out and suffered maybe the worst loss in school history as Arizona State crushed the Wildcats 70-7 on Friday night and Sumlin woke up without a job. He finished his career in the desert with 12 straight losses!
“Respected journalist?” Citation needed. /s
Jeff Hafley impressed this year. BC looked a lot better.
🙂
It was not a great year for potential future Nd head coaches. Brohm has struggled again, satterfield has struggled on the field and seems like he’d be a disaster off of it, fleck hasn’t had a great years but how he bounces back could be a good indicator. He has certainly handled this season off the field so much better than most of these coaches (who all seem so bad at that off the field stuff and would get swallowed up at Nd). Obviously the one exception is Matt Campbell.
Campbell has been great, even from playing him in the bowl and paying attention to him, he seems very impressive and an outside coach I respect. Fleck, I dunno, maybe you can write everything off this year as being zany, but it feels like his team isn’t getting better next year. Also his shtick kinda feels Harbaugh-y to me in a weird way. Not saying he can’t coach, just that his gimmick might grow stale quickly.
My eyes have been open to Napier, who has been under the Dabo and Saban learning tree. Not sure if he’s a total fit for Notre Dame or if ND would be a fit for him, but I’m excited to see what happens next for him. IMO, if anyone can blow through the current recruiting ceiling, it would likely be an energetic, young guy with ties to the southeast. Napier fits that bill, if nothing else.
I like Campbell l, a lot. I will say the bowl prep and seeing/hearing up close, ND would be a big jump up, and that spotlight would get a helluva lot brighter. He said some things after game criticizing his own players that you would never get away with at Nd. I think there would be a learning curve there and I would worry a bit about a recruiting ceiling, not sure he’d have the dawg on him.
Man, that Napier intentional safety was absolutely egregious. So much worse than the Tulsa int Kelly’s first year. His postgame handling felt like kelly that year too. I guess regardless hopefully kelly can help coach the next guy, whoever it may be, through some of this.
I have to think Kelly will be replaced by someone in his coaching tree when he retires — most likely Lea, in my opinion. Obviously that will depend on where Lea’s career takes him in the near future.
I see Aranda and the Bears up close just about every week(thank goodness I didn’t go down there last week) and I think they just need some more time. Rhule had built up a team built on grit and power and Aranda is instilling a speed system. All practice long, their players are required to jog from station to station. He and the coaches are always yelling “game speed” and calling for more hustle. It’s also less of a business approach than the previous staff. The on-field results are going to be what they are but I think with the right players and some time they’ll get something worked out.
Part of it, too, I don’t really see Charlie Brewer as a real game changing player. He’s just kind of “meh.” There’s a underclassman, though, who’s electric. I can’t wait to see him start there. During arm, but big and fast too
Yeah, I think you’ve nailed this one. I thought whoever came in this year was in a no win situation. Rhule was able to grind out wins in games that he had no business winning, with a quarterback who has no business being a P5 QB. While things have gone poorly for Aranda this year, I think a big step back had to be expected. Additionally, this past weekend’s performance can’t really be held against them, as they just had so many members of the team and staff out due to covid. I think year 3 (assuming a normal-ish offseason the next 2 years) will really be when we can get a good sense of where his team is headed. Of course, that’s a long time to wait for results at this level.
And now Charlie Brewer is transferring. I’m really not shocked by it. He never really seemed happy there to me. I’ve never seen him jumping up and down, smiling, having a good time. He just does his work and moves on. As I think about it now, the signs were all there that he was miserable so this transfer makes sense. If I’m a Baylor fan, I’m real excited about RS Frosh Jake Zeno. Kid is fast, quick release, affable personality. He will be a lot of fun to watch play.
Leipold is putting together a Kelly-like career arc. A bunch of D-III national titles followed by steady improvement at a MAC school. He needs to be careful not to take a dead-end P5 job like Illinois or Vandy, but I think he’s going to do well.
Campbell, man, I dunno. I get it; Iowa State is a very tough job and he’s outperforming historical standards significantly. But he’s winless against Iowa, and I just can’t get the taste of the Camping World Bowl out of my mouth. That was a complete nothingburger in one of the few games Iowa State gets national attention.
One thing about Leipold is that he’s only 3 years younger than Brian Kelly right now.
In your arc, Kelly was in his early 40’s wrapping up his time in the MAC and Leipold will turn 57 in May. If he was younger, I think his stock would be super high.
Huh, didn’t know that. Well, I guess it’s now or never if he’s gonna jump up then.
Might need a “Defensive Coordinators Doing Good Things” piece
Context: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30518914/vanderbilt-commodores-zero-notre-dame-fighting-irish-dc-clark-lea-coach
I would think too, if possible, we’d want to promote from within, but is there anybody on the staff that is a mike elko/clark lea disciple (Maybe even by becoming one here at ND the last couple of years) that could take over?
I would think that Mike Elston is the first in line to have a chance at the job. He might not be in the Elko/Lea line but he has worked with Lea for a few years now and I’m sure he’s had his hand in shaping the overall look of the defense over the last few years anyways.
I’ve heard it said that it was really Elston who finished the year for BVG so he has a little bit of experience and based on his work with the DL the past few years I’d love for him to get a serious look.
That said, I would really like Kelly to at least shake the leaves on a national search similar to before he hired Rees. However, continuity and maintaining the system in place seem to lean towards promoting Elston and then going out and getting a great teacher/recruiter to coach DL.
Yea considering he passed over Elston before, I would not be particularly excited about that kind of continuity. Our best option would probably be to get someone that had a similar philosophy but just is the best guy at the job.
It wouldn’t be an inspiring hire, much the way Tommy Rees wasn’t. But that doesn’t mean Rees wasn’t a good hire either, that decision looks to be really smart as of now.
I think I’d prefer Elston to some newcomer with a different philosophy. The 4-2-5 works really well. Elston is by all accounts a smart guy and good coach, IMO he should be able to implement a good defense. Possibly not great like Lea, but let’s be real — there’s gonna be a drop-off no matter who the new ND DC is.
Yea, but Rees was never passed over for the job before, and he’s super young so you figure he had a kind of high-upside potential. Elston is not that kind of prospect – it would seem to be settling for average.
I mean in the end I have no idea of the quality of these coaches. I’m just suggesting what it would seem like given Kelly’s past choice to not offer Elston the job before even though Elston had a ton of experience.
Well that’s why I suggested trying to find the best guy that’s closest to Lea’s philosophy.
Why is it a big deal Elston got passed over for the job in 2016? He wasn’t as good of a candidate as Clark Lea, but that doesn’t mean he necessarily is not a good candidate to be a DC, period.
Elston is also important enough and seen as enough of a leader to be the associate head coach, so his duties and responsibility are pretty wide. Stepping up to coordinator level shouldn’t be daunting.
I do agree with your earlier comment to hire the best person for the job. I’m just not ready to declare that isn’t Elston just because of past hiring decisions.
If Kelly thought he was a great candidate we probably would not have run such a national search – like with Rees as OC. So even running the national search was a judgment about the current coaches that we had vis a vis DC.
In that case, let’s just see how national of a search actually plays out. Are you saying the last DC search was a national one where they just hired their own LB coach?
Kelly also said it was going to be an “exhaustive” process for OC last year and they didn’t even talk to Moorhead or interview anyone else seriously and just hired Rees after being comfortable with what he did in the bowl game.
I wouldn’t mind bringing in more voices just to see if any rising star really makes a connection or gives that Lea/Rees young rising star vibe. It would probably be negligent not to cast a wide net to attempt to find the best candidate.
And all of that still doesn’t say Elston wouldn’t be a good DC choice.
Now is definitely the time to cast that wide net. This is a job that is going to be desirable. Lots of depth and talent on defense next year and in the coming years. I like the idea of at least talking to some guys but I’m also comfortable hiring internally.
Great point goldendomer. Don’t settle for a “good” choice. Let’s find a great one.
No i was thinking with Elko was the national search and when Elston was passed over (in a national search), then passed over again (clearly not a national search but more of like a continuation of the decision made the prior year or two) when Elko left after (was it only 1 year?).
Yea I’m all for the national search. Maybe Elston would be a fine DC. I’m just doubtful given Kelly’s past decisions. That’s all I’m saying.
Gotcha. Perhaps so. I’m open to wait, it doesn’t mean much to me, personally, that Elston has been passed over.
(Also in play: is he going to stay at ND now if passed over again? Kelly might have to weigh if it’s more important to take a chance on Elston as DC or risk the downside of having him leave for a bigger opportunity somewhere else).
I wouldn’t think or hope he gets hired as DC just for those reasons, but there will be a lot to consider for all parties now.
That’s true. We don’t know what was said or promised to Elston before. Didn’t he almost leave for a DC job before? Maybe that’s also why he got the title bump?
https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-defensive-coordinator-candidates
Interesting other candidates.
These all seem like pretty good options but both the Cincy guy and the Iowa St. guy I would wonder about how long they would be around. I get that coming to ND is a step up but if you are a successful coordinator at a P5 school already are you looking to make the jump to a HC job?
But I guess if we have great defenses for the next two years and have to find a new hire again then that is the price you pay.
Yea there’s no other way. Coordinators who excel are going to try to find a HC gig.
I don’t want anyone associated with Big XII “defenses” to even be considered
Sure but defensive rankings are nationwide. So if you put together a top 20 defense in the Big 12 its still impressive considering all that conference tries to do is score.
..and on top of that, Rees’ boss is also an offensive coach who could really shape and guide him. That’s a big benefit. Whomever is chosen to replace Lea will need to be completely independent as well as excellent.
I would agree that with the idea of recruiting to the 4-2-5 and creating a system in which guys can grow and develop I would really want there to be continuity. Even if Elston is a small step down just staying in the flow could elevate him to a similar level.
Did he pass over Elston before. I suppose in a way but we don’t really know what the conversations were behind closed doors. Also, I know that it is only a title, but technically Elston is DL coach and associate head coach. He got that title the same year Lea was promoted to D coordinator.
Point being he might be way more involved in the decisions on defense than we know and probably was a form of a mentor to Lea so perhaps it wasn’t really being passed by in a negative way.
I think the associate head coach title is an acknowledgment that he was passed over for DC. That is, it’s like I know you have experience to be in line for the DC job but you aren’t good enough for the job but we want to give you a title bump anyway because you are super important for our program and want to keep you.
Oh I get it. But it could also be similar to the role that Lance Taylor and Quinn have with Rees. They are very important to the implementing of the offense and just because they don’t call the plays on game day doesn’t mean that they aren’t hugely influential on a day to day basis.
That is the idea that I am envisioning with Elston and why I’m in favor of giving him a long look.
But being influential is one thing, and making the final decisions, calling plays on the fly, making final adjustments, etc. is another thing.
If Elston was responsible for all that, then our D would have been great before Lea unless you think he somehow got way better in the last couple of years. Which maybe, but I doubt it.
During the hated BVG years Elston just had the title either Recruiting coordinator and LB coach or DL coach.
Again, I get that it is a title but under BVG I’m not sure how much influence he had. It’s also a good sign that he is one of the holdovers from the 2016 season when Kelly cleaned house.
You need great coaches in your program that are not coordinator material, and you need to value those guys highly for what they do. That’s what I think Elston is for Kelly. A right-hand man who does a ton for the program even if he is not quite coordinator material.
This is good point. His value could be higher as a non-coordinator.
I just don’t want to be changing defensive structures and philosophies in the midst of a great run. But, I guess every guy, even Elston, would bring his own tweaks and small changes but I agree with you that if we find an outside guy they need to have a similar idea of what the defense should look like.
And that’s just how runs are continued by continually hiring good new coordinators which require them to keep some continuity while bringing their own style.
Wonder if he’ll stick around for the ACC game and possible playoffs? It would be good to have him for this/these game(s) because he’s Lea and he’s an awesome DC, but would he be distracted by recruiting and staffing for his new job?
I read that Kelly mentioned that Lea would be sticking around for the ACC champ game and the playoff even if he is hired. He would just be doubling up for a couple of weeks and Kelly said that he didn’t expect it to be an issue or distraction if Lea did get hired somewhere.
Couldn’t imagine that he would leave before these big games. These opportunities don’t come along very often and in all reality what is he really going to accomplish in 3 weeks at Vandy that can’t be pushed off for a bit?
That’s tough to do double-duty. This is a big hit for finishing out this season with a top D against some great offensives. We needed Lea at his best and most focused.
I get what you are saying but if I was in his position it is clear where the priority stills lies. His credibility and cache is tied to his job at ND and while yes he may be putting some work in at the Vandy job over the next couple of weeks he is going to want to put an exclamation point on his time at ND.
yea i think you are right, except for the fact that signing day is when? It’s happening in the next 10 days or so no? So he’s pressed with deadlines that kind of prevent him from doing too little for Vandy.
I don’t blame him at all btw, it’s just unfortunate that during the one season we have national championship aspirations that we will lose our DC to double-duty and weaken a great chance at a Natty. We just need everything to go well for that to happen or have extremely slim margin for error. And this is eating into that very slim margin.
And while making ND a priority there is still just not enough time in the day. While maybe he spent 14 hours a day on ND football now it’s gotta be like 8 hours ND + 8 hours vandy (with less sleep which doesn’t help one be focused and on top of your game). [This is the pessimistic argument anyway.]
I’ll not disagree. This is just the price you pay for being an elite program (yes, I used that term because I’m hopeful that is what we have finally become).
Agreed. Clemson has gotten very lucky to have venebles – who doesn’t want to be a HC apparently.
His son or sons are at Clemson so we will see what happens once they graduate.
even so they’ve gotten a great run out of one DC even if he leaves in a few years. He’ll have been there for what, about 10+ years?
Early signing day is this Wednesday, 12/16. Considering Lea doesn’t officially have the job right now, not like there’s much he’s going to be able to do for this cycle no matter what happens.
Jeff Hafley did the same thing splitting a new gig and DC of a playoff team last year between tOSU and BC for a bit. So it can be done, and if anyone can compartmentalize and devote an honest effort to both, I’d think it would be Clark Lea.
I’m not really worried at all about his performance or effort for the rest of the season.
actually that’s good news that it is in two days and there’s not much he can do for that. That’s makes it so he doesn’t have a close deadline on it.
I’m not worried about an honest effort. It’s just about the time. But if he doesn’t have to focus so much on recruiting immediately that helps with the time crunch.
I believe I read with Hafley that Day’s deal with him was Hafley had to do his normal tOSU DC duties as he normally would, then once his tasks were completed he was free to do the BC work as basically his own overtime.
I’d assume that will be a similar arrangement with Lea. Lea has already told the team his focus is on ND and the next 3 weeks, and I’m inclined to believe him.
https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1338543701484851202
Ok, so that’s a different story. That’s *not* pulling double-duty which is the typical way these things happen.
I wonder if the recruiting deadline being 12/16 actually makes that far easier to do because there is no way to take responsibility for the new incoming class. Maybe a great outcome of moving the signing day up.
Two quick comments:
(1) Unless everyone is totally misreading the man, Lea is a straight up serious and good guy. If he told the defense he is all in for the next three weeks, I think we should believe him.
(2) Re: Mike Elston, I do think we should give him a ton of credit for doing one hell of a job with the D-line. On the face of it, he ought to be able to fleet up to the DC job.
(1) I agree. I do.
(2) No argument here with the 1st half. I just simply don’t know about the 2nd sentence. Maybe, maybe not.
I mean, how much work do you REALLY need to put in to turn around the worst program in the SEC? That’s why this move stinks so much.
This is just crummy not only because he’s leaving but WHERE he chose to go. I know he’s an alum and all but come on. There were some really SOLID options he could have taken his pick of. Auburn absolutely can compete at the top, Illinois has an opportunity with the current state of the Integer. Vandy is just a joke of a program. I dont want to see him die in Nashville and lose his luster.
Any chance we can maybe get Diaco back?
I can understand the thought about waiting and trying for a better job but Diaco? Sure, he did just fine here at ND and I’ve got nothing against him but his system that he ran was completely different and while our defenses then were great I just don’t think I’d like Diaco to return.
For Clark Lea, not sure there’s many better jobs than Vanderbilt. It’s his alma mater. Hometown. Place that shaped him, place where he doesn’t have a lot of pressure and can build. He’s a man who likes challenges and won’t be uncomfortable with the position they’re in.
James Franklin beat all of 1 ranked team in his three years at Vandy and parlayed it into a big step forward.
Life is all about managing expectations and it’s a good opportunity there. If he goes 4-8 the next 3 years he probably won’t be fired (if the track record of Derek Mason is any indicator, who got seven years without a winning record season). Lea doesn’t have to beat Florida to be considered a success. He’s just got to flirt with bowl contention and stay competitive with Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss St, Missouri type tier of the conference. If he can find 1-2 SEC wins there plus win 3-4 OOC games, he’s perceived as genius.
Looks pretty attainable, and there’s something to be said when really he can only impress and exceed expectations. Maybe they get better or lucky and he makes them 7-5 and will get Franklin level praise and a king’s reception when Kelly is done at ND.
Yeah, but James Franklin is the ONLY “successful” Vandy coach. Before him, you have to go back to Bill Edwards to find someone who had a winning record. He coached from 1949-1952 and was 21-19-2. I have not heard of a single coach in their list before Franklin, so I’m thinking none of them moved on to succeed elsewhere.
Lea’s resume looks VERY similar to Derek Mason’s. Both came from a high academic school. They joined after a year of awful defense as a position coach. The D improved in their first year, then they became DC for 3 years, leading very strong Ds. Not sure about recruiting reputation.
Stanford FEI Defensive Ratings
2009 – #99
2010 (Mason joined as DB coach) – #10
2011 (Mason moved to DC) -#25
2012 – #8
2013 – #13
2014 (Mason starts at Vandy) – #8
2015 – #51
ND FEI Defensive Ratings
2016 – #54
2017 (Elko/Lea join) – #11
2018 – #16
2019 – #5
2020 – #10
Lea has lead slightly better defenses, but the similarities are very strong. Weirdly, Franklin was the OC at Maryland for 3 years and didn’t have particularly good offenses, or even improve their offense from before him or during his time. Mason and Lea both have MUCH better resumes than Franklin.
I think history suggests Lea is not likely to succeed at Vandy (i.e. a winning record), but who knows. If he gets 7 years as an SEC coach, he will certainly make enough money to be set for life.
That seems to be only if you tie “success” pretty tightly to needing “winning record”, which I don’t necessarily believe is true.
Mason had Vandy winning 5-6 games per year from 2016-18. Franklin was in that range too with the one outlier 9 win season. That’s the area Lea needs to get in to be successful. He should be trying to qualify for bowls regularly — like Vandy did 5 times in 8 years from 2011-18. He should try to win bowl games too (like Franklin did twice, but Mason failed to do).
If Lea goes like 4-8, 6-7, 7-6 and the ND job opens up, he won’t have a winning record but he’s still probably successful enough to have shown an aptitude as an HC to where he’s ready for a step up in competition and quality.
Franklin went 6-7, 9-4, 9-4 at Vandy.
Would you have wanted us to hire Mason after his 13-24 run? Is 17-21 a big enough difference? Otherwise, their resumes are basically the same.
Well, I wouldn’t have wanted to hire Mason specifically, because he has no history and no background at Notre Dame, so that’s a different matter. But if the question is more about what if Lea matches the 3-9, 4-8, 6-7 path that Mason did in his first three years at Vandy, is that good enough for Lea to get the ND job?
As usual, the answer is “it depends”. Maybe that’s enough to show a decent enough turnaround. If Lea is 6-7 by his third year in Vandy that’s probably the sign of a coach who has turned around and stabilized that program.
Not a slam dunk must-hire by any means, but I think he’d be on the map since everyone at ND knows what kind of coach and leader and person Lea is.
But if Lea is closer to James Franklin than Derek Mason, the choice becomes easy. Which is why I was talking about why Vandy is a great opportunity for Lea. Expectations are low, and odds are the narrative/perception is going to be that Lea is DGT if/when he gets Vandy to about .500. And if by hook or crook they somehow have an 8-9 season, Lea will be praised as a miracle worker.
But it is very very hard to win 7 games at Vanderbilt. It has happened 8 times in the past 70 years (2013, 2012, 2008, 1982, 1975, 1974, 1955, 1950). The only 6 win seasons they even had in that time were 2018, 2016, 2011.
Lea is not any better of a DC than Mason was. Diaco’s first 3 years were even better than Lea’s time here.
Also, the bar is much higher there than it once was. Since 1975, Mason has the 3rd best winning % of any coach, behind Franklin (.615) and DiNardo (.432), and he was fired.
If you remove your fondness for Lea, there is nothing suggesting he will likely succeed at Vandy. The odds of any new HC succeeding at any school are slim, but there, they are especially poor.
Again, it depends on what the word “succeed” means, which also needs to be tempered based on this program. Mason, I would say, was succeeding for the first 5 years at Vandy. 2 year grace period to get up to speed, then they went 6-7, 5-6, 6-7 with 2 bowl bids. Relatively speaking, that’s a good place for Vandy to be. (Then it goes off the rails with 3-17 in the last 2 years and he gets canned. I don’t think the bar is high at Vandy, but you just can’t go 0-8 in year 7, needless to say).
If you tie “odds of any new HC succeeding” as winning record, sure, odds are impossible for Lea. He’s not going to be the conventional idea of a success. But this isn’t a conventional place.
If you look at is as there is no expectations, and he gets the opportunity to build something at a place that went to a bowl game 5/8 years earlier this decade before the wheels fell off, then that’s something. I’d say what’s happened in the last decade means a lot more than what happened 40-70 years ago, so that history is what it is.
Even if Lea gets the same results as Mason (which will be even more impressive for Lea, Mason got to start in a better spot), but if Lea goes 6-7 and 5-6 in years 3+4, he should be in a good position for a bigger job if he wants it.
Lea also won 4 games as a player at Vandy in his whole career and loved the experience and what it meant, so I wouldn’t be shocked if his plan is more long-term to see just how far he can push his program towards, rather than jump back to ND at first opportunity.
I hope this is Lea’s dream job. And financially this is definitely a smart move. I personally would make this move.
I think he can definitely make this a positive for him personally. If it’s to move back home and live a great life, then he can coach a long time at Vandy without a ton of pressure and make more money than he could spend.
Of course it remains to be seen if this will come to fruition but it seems that Vandy is committed to spending some money to improve facilities, hire more behind the scenes staff for recruiting, nutrition, and strength training so maybe with those improvements Lea can recruit a bit better and get Vandy to be a .500 program.
If he achieves that in 5 years and is able to maybe win 7 or 8 games even once then he would have to be viewed as pretty attractive to bigger programs, including ND.
Isn’t that kind of crazy to think of? When he left, we collectively screamed like we are with Lea leaving. We almost would have done anything to keep him and now the shine is completely off. Sad to see that happen and I really don’t want to see the second coming of that.
Diaco’s career collapsed the minute he went to UConn. He’s at Purdue now and is, uh, not doing well.