Some people are really mad about the way the playoff teams were selected this year, namely that Notre Dame grabbed the 4th seed over the likes of Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, or even Coastal Carolina. Let me see if I can break down the biggest issues with college football and its handling of the post-season.

Is the Sport Too Stale?

Yes, absolutely it is!

The question is whether things were different pre-playoffs and that answer isn’t very clear to me. For example, here are the programs who gained entry to the last 7 BCS National Championship Games as we compare to the 7th annual playoffs coming this weekend:

Alabama (3x), LSU (2x), Auburn (2x), Ohio State (1x), Florida (1x), Oklahoma (1x), Texas (1x), Oregon (1x), Notre Dame (1x), and Florida State (1x).

I mean, is that really all that different than the game today?

College football’s problem (from this point of view at least) is that the more it has moved away from the wild west of major bowl games deciding a mythical national champion the more stale the sport has gotten. For certain, I don’t think some people care for this and I think we’re seeing a confluence of an older generation–who preferred the old system–and a much younger generation–who has an almost rabid determination to make things as fair as possible–coming together in protest.

I’d argue the sport is getting much better at pitting the best team’s against each other (the stated goal of the playoffs) except doing so has been too boring for many college football fans.

Forgiving Losses

One of the criticisms of the playoffs is that we’re seeing less reliance on going undefeated while Power 5 losses are occasionally forgiven by the committee, depending on the circumstances. Here’s a walk through of each team who made the playoffs so far without being unbeaten:

*Denotes conference champion

2014

Alabama* loss at #17 Ole Miss by 6 points
Ohio State* loss vs. unranked Virginia Tech by 14 points
Oregon* loss vs. #19 Arizona by 7 points

Joined by defending champion and undefeated Florida State. The Big 12 gets left out as 1-loss Baylor loses to unranked West Virginia by 14 points and 1-loss TCU loses at Baylor by 3 points and loses the Big 12 title via tie-breaker.

2015

Oklahoma* loss vs. unranked Texas by 7 points
Alabama* loss vs. #10 Miss State by 6 points
Michigan State* loss at unranked Nebraska by 1 point

Joined by undefeated Clemson. One-loss Iowa gets left out after losing a close game to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship while Ohio State’s close loss to Michigan State shut them out of winning the Big Ten.

2016

Washington* loss vs. #9 USC by 13 points
Clemson* loss vs. #22 Pitt by 1 point
Ohio State loss vs. #5 Penn State by 3 points

Joined by undefeated Alabama. We witness Ohio State unable to win the division over Penn State but a previous 2nd loss for the Nittany Lions to Pitt keeps them out of the playoffs.

2017

Clemson* loss at unranked Syracuse by 3 points
Alabama loss at #10 Auburn by 12 points
Oklahoma* loss vs. unranked Iowa State by 7 points
Georgia* loss vs. #10 Auburn by 23 points (beat Auburn in rematch)

No undefeated Power 5 teams. Auburn locked Alabama out of the SEC Championship but suffered defeats to Clemson and LSU before losing to Georgia in the conference title game. The Tide get in over 1-loss Wisconsin who lost by 7 points to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes didn’t make it thanks to a close loss to Oklahoma and a blowout defeat to Iowa.

2018

Oklahoma* loss vs. #9 Texas by 3 points (beat Texas in rematch)

Joined by undefeated Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame. The Sooners beat Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game to secure a spot. An ugly blowout loss to Purdue keeps 1-loss Ohio State out.

2019

Oklahoma* loss at unranked K-State by 7 points

Joined by undefeated LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. The Sooners beat Baylor in the Big 12 Championship and there are no other 1-loss Power 5 teams in the mix.

2020

Clemson* loss at #4 Notre Dame by 7 points (beat Notre Dame in rematch)
Notre Dame loss vs. #2 Clemson by 24 points

Joined by undefeated Alabama and Ohio State. One-loss Texas A&M loses by 28 to Alabama and is shut out from winning their division. One-loss Indiana loses by 7 to Ohio State and is shut out from winning their division. One-loss USC loses the Pac-12 Championship Game by 7 points.

I’m of the mind that the playoff committee has done a pretty good job and there hasn’t been any egregious or indefensible decisions over the past 7 seasons. I’ve always said we romanticized undefeated teams in the past and while 17 out of 28 playoff participants have suffered at least 1-loss prior to being picked we did see 7 out of the previous 14 BCS National Championship Game participants get in with 1-loss, too.

Maybe we’re not quite seeing the “1 loss and your season is over” drama from the past but I do believe schedules are tougher nowadays and we’re seeing a lot more bigger games in aggregate instead of teams hiding in their league and hoping to go unbeaten.

G5 Isn’t Taken Seriously

So, it seems like as people have become bored of the same teams (relatively speaking) making the playoffs they want to see things mixed up. It’s just really difficult for the playoff committee to do something like that without being super controversial.

Let’s take a look at the Group of 5 or independent teams who have had a case in the past or have been ranked by the committee since 2014:

F/+ rankings in parentheses

2014 1-loss Marshall not ranked (17)
2015 1-loss Houston #18 (26)
2016 Undefeated WMU #15 (24)
2017 Undefeated UCF #12 (8)
2018 Undefeated UCF #8 (10)
2019 1-loss Memphis #17 (17)
2019 1-loss App State #18 (27)
2019 1-loss Boise State #19 (30)
2019 3-loss Cincinnati #21 (31)
2019 2-loss Navy #23 (25)
2020 Undefeated Cincinnati #8 (7)
2020 Undefeated Coastal Carolina #12 (13)
2020 1-Loss BYU #16 (4)
2020 1-Loss Louisiana #19 (27)
2020 Undefeated San Jose State #22 (42)
2020 2-loss Tulsa #24 (33)
2020 1-loss Buffalo not ranked (35)
2020 1-loss Ball State not ranked (72)
2020 1-loss Liberty not ranked (49)

This is arguably a good trend for the smaller teams! I was expecting the committee rankings to be way out of whack in comparison to F/+ but that’s really not the case. When you look at things this way it would seem like the committee is becoming far more open to the non-Power 5 programs than they get credit for from fans.

We really have 2 questions to determine the future:

Are we okay with smaller teams ‘getting a shot’?

In other words, should the committee throw in a Group of 5 team that they normally wouldn’t to keep the game more fresh and exciting? Should they throw their standards aside in a case or two in the future to allow smaller teams a chance at the big stage? Should the ACC Championship Game have effectively been a playoff game this year with the loser making way for a G5 team in the playoffs? Do we want to see the likelihood of an even bigger Alabama blowout in the semifinals because we’re already certain a blowout will happen for Notre Dame who, it is argued, already got their shot?

I don’t think the committee will ever do this.

Will the committee ever pick a non-Power 5 team?

This is the big issue, obviously. I don’t think it will ever happen in a 4-team playoff and at some point this will be something the sport will have to address. For example, Cincinnati has a solid case this year while being unbeaten and got close but in many ways they were still so far away.

We brought it up several times throughout the season that 3-loss Florida’s ranking and then ultimately finishing ahead of unbeaten Cincinnati is egregious. The sport shouldn’t be doing this to G5 teams, although this is a little different than the committee placing Cincinnati in or out of the playoffs. It’s one thing to keep the Gators ahead of Cincinnati if their only loss was a competitive one to Alabama. But not with 2 other losses on their resume. This is pure greed from the committee to reward a big program.

Eventually, this cronyism within the Power 5 will drive change for an expanded playoff to 8 teams. The question then becomes will the committee shift things so the G5 teams get shut out of that, too? In 2020, would anyone be surprised if #9 Georgia or #10 Iowa State made it to an 8-team playoff over Cincinnati? I feel like they would’ve anticipated this scenario and been working on slipping the Bulldogs or Hawkeyes in weeks before the final vote.

I’m sure if they expand to 8 teams there will be an auto-bid for a Group of 5 team. I don’t think the sport can ever find complete fairness because there are way too many teams–and while it’s becoming cool to support the plucky G5 underdogs while a few Power 5 teams have such a hegemony over the sport–there’s really nothing to do except drop the standards adopted for inclusion into the playoffs which likely makes the sport so much worse in the long run.