Some people are really mad about the way the playoff teams were selected this year, namely that Notre Dame grabbed the 4th seed over the likes of Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, or even Coastal Carolina. Let me see if I can break down the biggest issues with college football and its handling of the post-season.
Is the Sport Too Stale?
Yes, absolutely it is!
The question is whether things were different pre-playoffs and that answer isn’t very clear to me. For example, here are the programs who gained entry to the last 7 BCS National Championship Games as we compare to the 7th annual playoffs coming this weekend:
Alabama (3x), LSU (2x), Auburn (2x), Ohio State (1x), Florida (1x), Oklahoma (1x), Texas (1x), Oregon (1x), Notre Dame (1x), and Florida State (1x).
I mean, is that really all that different than the game today?
College football’s problem (from this point of view at least) is that the more it has moved away from the wild west of major bowl games deciding a mythical national champion the more stale the sport has gotten. For certain, I don’t think some people care for this and I think we’re seeing a confluence of an older generation–who preferred the old system–and a much younger generation–who has an almost rabid determination to make things as fair as possible–coming together in protest.
I’d argue the sport is getting much better at pitting the best team’s against each other (the stated goal of the playoffs) except doing so has been too boring for many college football fans.
Forgiving Losses
One of the criticisms of the playoffs is that we’re seeing less reliance on going undefeated while Power 5 losses are occasionally forgiven by the committee, depending on the circumstances. Here’s a walk through of each team who made the playoffs so far without being unbeaten:
*Denotes conference champion
2014
Alabama* loss at #17 Ole Miss by 6 points
Ohio State* loss vs. unranked Virginia Tech by 14 points
Oregon* loss vs. #19 Arizona by 7 points
Joined by defending champion and undefeated Florida State. The Big 12 gets left out as 1-loss Baylor loses to unranked West Virginia by 14 points and 1-loss TCU loses at Baylor by 3 points and loses the Big 12 title via tie-breaker.
2015
Oklahoma* loss vs. unranked Texas by 7 points
Alabama* loss vs. #10 Miss State by 6 points
Michigan State* loss at unranked Nebraska by 1 point
Joined by undefeated Clemson. One-loss Iowa gets left out after losing a close game to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship while Ohio State’s close loss to Michigan State shut them out of winning the Big Ten.
2016
Washington* loss vs. #9 USC by 13 points
Clemson* loss vs. #22 Pitt by 1 point
Ohio State loss vs. #5 Penn State by 3 points
Joined by undefeated Alabama. We witness Ohio State unable to win the division over Penn State but a previous 2nd loss for the Nittany Lions to Pitt keeps them out of the playoffs.
Forget Notre Dame and Texas A&M. The fourth and final playoff spot should have gone to undefeated Cincinnati. The committee’s dismissal of the Bearcats defies football logic—and reveals how far this system will go to ensure the same old outcome.@rodger: https://t.co/qFV1eTrT6N
— The Ringer (@ringer) December 20, 2020
2017
Clemson* loss at unranked Syracuse by 3 points
Alabama loss at #10 Auburn by 12 points
Oklahoma* loss vs. unranked Iowa State by 7 points
Georgia* loss vs. #10 Auburn by 23 points (beat Auburn in rematch)
No undefeated Power 5 teams. Auburn locked Alabama out of the SEC Championship but suffered defeats to Clemson and LSU before losing to Georgia in the conference title game. The Tide get in over 1-loss Wisconsin who lost by 7 points to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes didn’t make it thanks to a close loss to Oklahoma and a blowout defeat to Iowa.
2018
Oklahoma* loss vs. #9 Texas by 3 points (beat Texas in rematch)
Joined by undefeated Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame. The Sooners beat Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game to secure a spot. An ugly blowout loss to Purdue keeps 1-loss Ohio State out.
2019
Oklahoma* loss at unranked K-State by 7 points
Joined by undefeated LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. The Sooners beat Baylor in the Big 12 Championship and there are no other 1-loss Power 5 teams in the mix.
2020
Clemson* loss at #4 Notre Dame by 7 points (beat Notre Dame in rematch)
Notre Dame loss vs. #2 Clemson by 24 points
Joined by undefeated Alabama and Ohio State. One-loss Texas A&M loses by 28 to Alabama and is shut out from winning their division. One-loss Indiana loses by 7 to Ohio State and is shut out from winning their division. One-loss USC loses the Pac-12 Championship Game by 7 points.
I’m of the mind that the playoff committee has done a pretty good job and there hasn’t been any egregious or indefensible decisions over the past 7 seasons. I’ve always said we romanticized undefeated teams in the past and while 17 out of 28 playoff participants have suffered at least 1-loss prior to being picked we did see 7 out of the previous 14 BCS National Championship Game participants get in with 1-loss, too.
Maybe we’re not quite seeing the “1 loss and your season is over” drama from the past but I do believe schedules are tougher nowadays and we’re seeing a lot more bigger games in aggregate instead of teams hiding in their league and hoping to go unbeaten.
G5 Isn’t Taken Seriously
So, it seems like as people have become bored of the same teams (relatively speaking) making the playoffs they want to see things mixed up. It’s just really difficult for the playoff committee to do something like that without being super controversial.
Let’s take a look at the Group of 5 or independent teams who have had a case in the past or have been ranked by the committee since 2014:
F/+ rankings in parentheses
2014 1-loss Marshall not ranked (17)
2015 1-loss Houston #18 (26)
2016 Undefeated WMU #15 (24)
2017 Undefeated UCF #12 (8)
2018 Undefeated UCF #8 (10)
2019 1-loss Memphis #17 (17)
2019 1-loss App State #18 (27)
2019 1-loss Boise State #19 (30)
2019 3-loss Cincinnati #21 (31)
2019 2-loss Navy #23 (25)
2020 Undefeated Cincinnati #8 (7)
2020 Undefeated Coastal Carolina #12 (13)
2020 1-Loss BYU #16 (4)
2020 1-Loss Louisiana #19 (27)
2020 Undefeated San Jose State #22 (42)
2020 2-loss Tulsa #24 (33)
2020 1-loss Buffalo not ranked (35)
2020 1-loss Ball State not ranked (72)
2020 1-loss Liberty not ranked (49)
This is arguably a good trend for the smaller teams! I was expecting the committee rankings to be way out of whack in comparison to F/+ but that’s really not the case. When you look at things this way it would seem like the committee is becoming far more open to the non-Power 5 programs than they get credit for from fans.
We really have 2 questions to determine the future:
Are we okay with smaller teams ‘getting a shot’?
In other words, should the committee throw in a Group of 5 team that they normally wouldn’t to keep the game more fresh and exciting? Should they throw their standards aside in a case or two in the future to allow smaller teams a chance at the big stage? Should the ACC Championship Game have effectively been a playoff game this year with the loser making way for a G5 team in the playoffs? Do we want to see the likelihood of an even bigger Alabama blowout in the semifinals because we’re already certain a blowout will happen for Notre Dame who, it is argued, already got their shot?
I don’t think the committee will ever do this.
Will the committee ever pick a non-Power 5 team?
This is the big issue, obviously. I don’t think it will ever happen in a 4-team playoff and at some point this will be something the sport will have to address. For example, Cincinnati has a solid case this year while being unbeaten and got close but in many ways they were still so far away.
We brought it up several times throughout the season that 3-loss Florida’s ranking and then ultimately finishing ahead of unbeaten Cincinnati is egregious. The sport shouldn’t be doing this to G5 teams, although this is a little different than the committee placing Cincinnati in or out of the playoffs. It’s one thing to keep the Gators ahead of Cincinnati if their only loss was a competitive one to Alabama. But not with 2 other losses on their resume. This is pure greed from the committee to reward a big program.
Eventually, this cronyism within the Power 5 will drive change for an expanded playoff to 8 teams. The question then becomes will the committee shift things so the G5 teams get shut out of that, too? In 2020, would anyone be surprised if #9 Georgia or #10 Iowa State made it to an 8-team playoff over Cincinnati? I feel like they would’ve anticipated this scenario and been working on slipping the Bulldogs or Hawkeyes in weeks before the final vote.
I’m sure if they expand to 8 teams there will be an auto-bid for a Group of 5 team. I don’t think the sport can ever find complete fairness because there are way too many teams–and while it’s becoming cool to support the plucky G5 underdogs while a few Power 5 teams have such a hegemony over the sport–there’s really nothing to do except drop the standards adopted for inclusion into the playoffs which likely makes the sport so much worse in the long run.
I’m totally fine with and I don’t care that G5 teams “don’t get a shot.” the game is so much more intense at the P5 level compared to that so it doesn’t make sense to waste such a valuable position on them. It would end up with all the P5 teams scheduling the weakest OOC imaginable and that’s bad for the game. I don’t WANT to see teams that beat Tulsa, SMU, Marshall, and ULL in the playoff
I don’t care much whether G5 teams get in the playoff. It’s not like these schools came in blind; they had to know they weren’t going to get in as soon as the P5 went the selection committee route instead of just sticking with the BCS and adding 2 more teams.
I do care a lot that the committee is nakedly boning them over in the rankings. There’s no reason Iowa State, with 3 losses, needs to be in an NY6 game and not Coastal Carolina (who beat the team that beat Iowa State), and especially not when selling tickets isn’t really a factor. It’s that kind of garbage that’s going to drive change, maybe more so than the lack of access to a 4-team playoff.
(1) I don’t understand why people are outraged that these lesser teams aren’t getting in. What data are there to show that these teams deserve a shot? Being undefeated is not enough.
(2) Is there a way for scheduling to change? Doesn’t Basketball happen much closer to each season and so if you are a mid-major and think you have a pretty good squad in a particular year you then go out and try to add some big name teams to your schedule?
Would that EVER be possible in football? Or is it hard for even lesser teams to know they’ll be good this year (let alone that football is schedule years in advance)?
Because the only way I see these lower teams getting in is if they regularly played big-name out of conference games. Why doesn’t Cinci schedule ND (they are next year) + another big name or even 3 total every year – if they have dreams of making it to the playoffs. Is 8-4 really that bad in a given year if they go like 7-1 in their conference and win their conference? Then in a year where they may turn out to be really good they’d have a chance to show that they are legit by beating a few quality teams during the year.
I realize one other obstacle is who would want to play these teams? The very elite probably do not want to regularly play these middle of the pack teams that may be good once in a while. It’s the whole if we lose it looks really bad, and if we win we get little credit for it.
We’re losing to Cincy next year, aren’t we?
I guess that depends on a) how good they really are, b) how much they are bringing back (everyone can bring back everyone but that’s obviously not going to happen), and c) how well we recover from losing Lea and Book.
But I’d be pretty confident in an ND win in most scenarios.
Yeah, I’d like to see who each team’s quarterbacks are before making any determination there. They might also lose their DC to a bigger job, including maybe even to Notre Dame, so that would be another key point still to be determined.
On that note, I think I’d rather have Desmond Ridder as a transfer. If ND can’t do much better than a journeyman/average QB they might as well stick with the young guys they have. Ridder seems like a guy who could need ND to improve his competition for the draft radar. Not sure if either side would have interest in each other, but in a perfect world I would hope they did. Or ND tries to explore adding an actually talented QB instead of some broken down one that probably isn’t going to work out.
Rodger’s article does point out that Cincy is ahead of Notre Dame in SP+, Simple Ratings System, Colley Matrix, and the Billingsly Report had them one spot behind the Irish.
Cincy is also 2 spots ahead of Notre Dame in F/+ as well.
I mean, I’m not sure I 100% agree with him but I definitely see his point.
The old, “if you don’t like your job, just get a better job” argument
To the last point of the article, I’d even be fine with a Georgia or Iowa State making it over Cincinnati this year. If the goal is to put the “best” teams in the playoff, dem da breaks.
Also, another point not really mentioned is that no out of conference just totally cripples Cincy’s case this year. Last year they beat UCLA (and also lost 42-0 to tOSU). But at least they got P5 data points.
Next year Cincy plays Notre Dame and Indiana. Go undefeated in 2021 and Cincy has a case to make the playoffs. If they went undefeated in 2019 and somehow beat tOSU, they’re probably making the playoffs. 2020 was crazy and weird and bad but also an eliminator of G5 teams to not get the chance to beat P5 teams in the regular season and make some semblance of a case.
Iowa State isn’t good. I feel confident Cincinnati would beat them easily. If you lose to a Sun Belt team, you don’t deserve to be considered one of the 10 best teams in the country.
The controversy should be about OSU, not ND. Playing only 6 games in a crappy conference and making the playoff is stupid. Fewer games equals fewer chances to lose and fear injuries. OSU didn’t look overpowering vs Northwestern, and barely held off Indiana, neither of which would beat A&M.
id really like our chances vs OSU this year. Instead, we get the Death Star. I pity our DBs trying to chase Smith or tackle Harris.
For this season, I don’t have a problem with it. The odds of Ohio State losing to Maryland or Michigan this year are pretty much close to zero. I don’t see why those 2 games against poor opponents really tell us anything or prove OSU should get in because they played more games.
Well but even two more games doesn’t get them to the number of games that ACC or SEC teams had to navigate.
True, but I don’t think x amount of games is really a disqualifying factor by itself. What you do in the games matters. Obviously, playing 2 games is different than 6, 8 or 10 games.
But, I don’t think USC should get in if they beat Oregon. Not enough games + not looking that great. I think OSU proved enough that they deserved one of the 4 spots even with 6 games.
But should the lack of games really not be a disqualifying factor? tOSU wasn’t that impressive overall against Indiana or NW, the two best teams they played. They were undefeated in regular season of 2019, but not 2017 or 2018. Sometimes they lose! So I think that’s a valid point, if they had 12 data points this year, maybe they wouldn’t be 12-0.
I’m not going to waste time wondering if tOSU is deserving, since they have the team quality and skill to be rightfully considered one of the four best in the country. But I don’t think what they showed on the field actually demonstrates that. If they were in the SEC and played UF/A&M/Bama would tOSU be undefeated? If they were in the ACC and played ND/Clemson? Ehh.
So I guess we’ll see. Really, I think tOSU/A&M/UF/ND are all about the same strength this year. Some of them have to be left out since that’s like the #3-6 tier, but it’s all closely bunched.
I think OSU showed they are better than A&M. The Aggies had tons of close games! The Buckeyes are like 10 spots higher than A&M in the advanced stats rankings, etc.
Does playing 3 fewer games mean enough to me that I’d put in a team with a worse resume who lost and didn’t win their division or conference? Not for me.
Oh well, advanced stats.
why not just declare winners based on advanced stats?
What Kiwi is trying to say is, us old guys aren’t big fans of advanced stats….. Now get off my lawn!
I think that’s fair. I just see more the flip side of the coin that tOSU played five regular season games. With missing half the data points, that’s very imperfect and beneficial for them to not actually have to play half of their games.
Also, take out the Alabama game and the average A&M game was 33-17, playing an SEC schedule with a win over #7 UF.
Ohio State’s average score is 42-21 against four trash teams and two decent/good ones.
I’m not really sure tOSU’s getting there on resume. Though I don’t disagree that the advanced stats can confirm the human bias by the committee about perceiving them to be playoff worthy.
If UF somehow upset Bama, tOSU would be SOL for the playoff..They played half a season and IMO are very fortunate that enough breaks went their way to make it
For sure, there are no great options this year with this discussion.
I’d be willing to accept that the SEC is better than the Big Ten so maybe that tilts things in A&M’s favor. But, they beat 3-loss Florida, 4-loss Auburn, and 5-loss LSU with the rest of the wins over teams that were a combined 11-38.
In normal years, that’s a pretty poor resume for a team that got blown out once and didn’t win their division/conference.
Gotta play the games. You would have said the same thing about their vatech, Purdue and Iowa games you mentioned above. None of those were good teams but the buckeyes have shown they’re a notch below the bama god team that never loses to unranked teams.
If ND had the Duke, Ga Tech, and Syracuse games cancelled this year would Irish fans accept that we shouldn’t be in the playoffs?
I seriously doubt it!
I would, especially if we got squashed by Clemson.
id prefer they’d be in, but would see the logic and accept it. Maybe the Patterson injury doomed us in the ACC championship. Injuries happen the more games a team plays.
If ND had the Duke, GA Tech, and Cuse games canceled, we still would have beaten Clem and UNC. tOSU has nothing even close to either of those in addition to playing half the games. UNC would wipe the floor with Indy or NW.
They lost to Purdue 2 years ago.
Florida lost to LSU 3 weeks ago.
We lost to Tulsa.
it happens commonly. So make them play the games and prove they’re good enough, not to mention potential injuries no matter who wins.
The 4-game playoff system is both “correct” in that I think they generally select the best teams with the highest likelihood of winning it all based on talent, performance, and resume, and also unfair in that half the teams (all G5 teams) have essentially no way of actually playing for the championship of the division of NCAAF to which they ostensibly belong. There’s nothing more you can do besides go undefeated, and when that’s not enough to even get a shot — setting aside the fact that I do think one loss ND is better than Cincy, the Chanticleers, etc. — can you really say that the Playoff is related in any way to determining “their” champion, when it has not and will not ever be settled with them on the field?
The only way to square the circle of undefeated G5 teams deserving a shot to prove it on the field but one or even two-loss P5 teams likely being better than them is to expand the playoff.
I think you’re right on. But the irony is, if they expand the playoff to 8 and give G5 a guaranteed spot, the result is you’ll see Cincy or whomever offered up every year to the #1 Bama or Clemson in the first round, and they’ll just get slaughtered.
And people will wonder what we’re doing here when the #9 team like Georgia or Iowa State gets left out and arguably would have had a better of a punching chance with more overall talent. #1 will feel almost like a bye (and maybe that’s what they want) but probably just create a new pressure point and controversy as to which power from the SEC or Clemson/tOSU deserves the top spot in this new scenario.
Consider that “fair” is an artificial construct that doesn’t exist in nature, was made up by mankind, and is most definitely not practiced by much of mankind.
In football, as in nature, the strong devour the weak. Putting more teams in will assure more boring blowouts.
I’d just as soon see a one game championship between Bama and Clemson this year.
I will take this article as an acknowledgement that the old wild west system had value. There is a profound staleness to certainty, and we’re figuring this out the hard way in the playoff system. We are also understanding that expanding the playoffs isn’t likely to help matters. There’s no going back unfortunately, but I hope college football looks for a solution more creatively and simply a defaulting back to the tired playoff expansion argument.
The current system isn’t “fair” but that’s the least of my concerns. The current system just isn’t fun. The playoff has been boring pretty much every year. So many blowouts, and because ESPN/Fox/CBS/everybody constantly focuses on the CFP, it’s all that really gets talked about. I want a system that is more fun and enjoyable.
I don’t know how you do that, but this system, where we watch Clemson and Alabama blow out two lesser opponents, isn’t making anybody particularly happy.
An 8 team playoff has its pros and cons:
Pro — perhaps some more 5 stars will choose tier 2 schools like ND, Oklahoma, A&M, etc. instead of all going to tOSU, Bama, and Clemson.
Pro — having more teams/games might introduce the possibility for more upsets (but probably not)
Con — having autobid for Group of 5 might lead to blowouts and us wondering “why do they get an autobid every year?”
Con — will it really solve any of the current controversies? Instead of arguing about the 4th / 5th best teams, we’ll be arguing about the 8th / 9th best teams
Let’s just go back to the old bowls and that way we can all spend a few off-season months debating who really should have been voted as national champion!
Yea, not sure you can do much about it when most of the top talent goes to a handful of teams: https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
I mean after Georgia, Bama, OSU – Clemson stays in it with a disproportionate # of 5 stars at the right positions (QB/DL). But who else really has a chance if we don’t have much of one at #8 level of talent this year?
If anything, the story should be how much we have played above our talent – and how great a coaching job this has been (over the years) by Kelly et alia (even if it also includes that he needs to be a better recruiter).
An expanded playoffs are just going to give the teams with elite talent *even more* of a chance to get in and then blow everyone away. Less chances means more chance of wild things happening/underdogs winning.
Maybe what would be necessary is a really expanded playoffs where they’d have to win 3 or 4 games to win it all (to be more like what the regular season used to be). So here’s a wild idea: shorten the regular season where teams play something around 6 or 7 conference games and 2 or 3 out of conference games (lots of playoff opportunities to encourage highly competitive OOC games). Then a 16 team playoff (max of 4 games) or a 32 team playoff (max of 5 games) – maybe with a week off in between if you make it to the final 4). This is a way to genuinely get the top teams to just hash it out on the field instead of using half the season to play meaningless games.
Perhaps something similar would work out if the 5 major conferences decided to just play each other throughout the season (since it would mean more serious/competitive games for everyone) but then with a 4 or 8 team playoff.
I watched a video a number of years ago on the ncaa mens basketball tournament and how all it did was ensure only a few teams ever had a chance at the championship. I dont remember all the facts, but it was something like over the last 40 years only 10 teams had won the championship and only like 20 had made the final 4. What I think is fascinating is that, that is the result in which talent gets spread out more due to smaller roster size. I could definitely see this happening in football with a bigger playoff, only maybe even worse. I dont think there is any perfect solution to this. I agree in saying the playoff is boring. I watched the first year and NDs playoff game and that was it. I just don’t care much to see the same teams every year, or maybe its just because the teams that will win are so freaking good it doesn’t lead its self to the wackiness I like about college football. I’m not sure, I just know it became stale for me much quicker than I had anticipated.