No surprises came out of New Year’s Day and the Rose Bowl, as Notre Dame lost to Alabama 31-14 in a game whose outcome was pretty much settled very early.
I have no artsy lead to this, so let’s just get right into it:
Notre Dame is way better than in 2012, and it didn’t matter
The biggest thing that was depressing about this game was that Notre Dame is, by just about any measure, better than the team that got rolled by Alabama in 2012, and it just didn’t matter. Nick Saban and (to a lesser extent) Dabo Swinney have basically broken this sport.
Just for fun, there has been exactly one national champion in the last 12 years that wasn’t either coached by Saban or quarterbacked by a highly drafted future NFL stud (that being 2014 Ohio State). That’s college football now – you pretty much have to either be loaded everywhere else or you have to have a generational QB.
There was a play very early that showed the kind of hill Notre Dame was facing today. On a 2nd down, ND brought the house on a screen pass, getting Mac Jones on the run. They did pretty much everything right. And it just didn’t matter because Jones found his open man for a 9-yard gain.
What made this game even more hopeless was that ND’s weak spots were Alabama’s strongest spots and not vice versa. ND’s secondary is merely good, not great, and guess what? The best player in the country is an Alabama WR. (And oh my goodness is he good. He is absolutely incredible. Mac Jones is a great QB, but if Smith doesn’t win the Heisman it will be very unfortunate, in my opinion.)
Meanwhile, Alabama’s secondary is very good but not great outside of Patrick Surtain, Jr., and guess what? ND has absolutely nobody that can take the top off a defense. And it was glaringly obvious throughout the game.
Once again, ND had a few chances and messed them up
The other frustrating thing about playing the ultra-elite teams, and it seems obvious, but it gives you no margin for error. You can’t make unforced errors at all, because you’re going to make forced errors. It was true Dec. 19 against Clemson, when ND messed up early chances to go up 10-0 or 14-0, and it was certainly true tonight.
For that reason, it really hurt when Ian Book whipped the ball 5 yards backwards early in ND’s first drive, because you knew that would sink the possession, and it did. It really hurt when Book decided that his first actual deep throw of the game was going to be a wildly underthrown ball while rolling out, allowing for an easy pick that snuffed out a good drive – a drive that very quietly was moving in the direction of a 21-14 score that would’ve at least elicited some interest from the college football cognoscenti. It hurt when Jonathan Doerer, who seems to have gone off the deep end, tanked a long field goal attempt at the end of the first half. You add up things like that, and you take yourself out of a game in which you already needed things to go almost perfectly to win.
ND needed some YOLO energy that wasn’t there
Sort of related to the last point, Notre Dame had to know everything had to go great to have a chance. Playing straight up wasn’t going to beat Alabama. So why did they do that?
The Irish didn’t go for any early fourth downs. They didn’t really change anything up at all. They also didn’t really go all in on the Army/Navy type ball control strategy. They didn’t have an overarching plan, and I think they needed one.
If it’s me, I go all in on running it and quick short passes. Clearly ND was able to get at least some mileage from the running game. Kyren Williams did well. Chris Tyree had a few plays. The tight ends did their part, even after Tommy Tremble got hurt. That would’ve been my strategy. Easy to say now, of course.
Faster defensive starts would be nice
We’ll never know if Alabama would have kept scoring at will if Notre Dame had kept up early on, I suppose, but what we do have to go on is that the Irish defense performed much better after the horrifying blood-and-guts-everywhere first 3 Tide possessions. This was Clark Lea’s thing all year – not a great start all the time, but he’ll figure out how to stop it eventually.
Lea, of course, is officially out the door now. I will miss him terribly. Now that he is gone, it would be super cool if ND can find a coordinator that can get its defense to slow down a good offense while also figuring out the secret sauce to slowing them down. ND really needed a good defensive start today, and obviously did not get one.
The ‘narrative’ is inevitable, so…I guess just ignore it?
I have no good advice for Notre Dame fans regarding the inevitable and already underway media grenades – social and otherwise – being lobbed the Irish’s way. (You’d think after Alabama destroyed #5 that #4 would get laid off a little bit, but we’re talking about a game where the overwhelming majority of the country was rooting for the Death Star, so logic clearly does not apply here.)
The fact of the matter is, much like many other narratives, you can’t reverse them until you, you know, actually reverse them. Notre Dame needs to win one of these games, and apparently they need to do it in the postseason because doing so in the regular season wasn’t enough.
Brian Kelly is bristling in the press conference about the narrative even as I write this, and understandably he doesn’t want to crap on Ian Book or any of his other players, but that’s how it goes. ND needs better players – either a whole lot of them or a super-elite level QB (see above). It’s his job to do it. Personally, I don’t think he’s going to be able to do it, but all he can do is maintain ND where they are – which, to be clear, is somewhere about 120 teams would kill to be – and maybe the Irish can find a maniacal recruiter to be the next coach. As it stands now, they’re fine. They’re just not Alabama or Clemson (or Ohio State).
For the 4th straight year, it was a good year – probably a better year than any ND has had this century. It just wasn’t a great one. There’s nothing wrong with good years. But we all badly want some great ones.
Honestly, I’m not even that mad. A loss by 17. Could have easily been 10 by finishing at the end, but what’s the difference? Weren’t close to winning either way, but at least didn’t get laughed off the field like other games. Might be a low bar, but I’ll take it. Plus they physically did look like they belonged. That has to mean something.
The talent gaps on the field were obvious. I don’t know if Bama let off the gas in the second half but I give the ND defense a lot of credit. They’re not as good as DeVonta Smith but, so what? No one is. They still hung tough.
Really thought the decision making and strategy stunk though:
–Took kick in 1st half, seems like move is to defer
–Down 7-0 on second offensive drive, call a QB power on 3rd+7, gain two, near midfield, punt anyways to historically great offense (wut)
–Don’t even go for 2 down 31-13 late (not that it mattered but just indicative of the mindset problem to not even try and make it a two score game)
Saw a tweet I can’t find now but the explosiveness was really the main difference. ND as built just isn’t capable of big offensive plays. And they’re not reliable enough in red zone or at sustaining drives. Every other playoff team is going to crack off big plays on the reg. That’s the way to improve, but it sucks because it’s different than the very good team that they’ve built. But what they’ve built doesn’t win titles in 2020.
With all that said, it’s still a hell of an effort in a covid year, and I tip my cap for the effort today and all year. It was there. But as we expected, they just aren’t close to measuring up to the very, very top teams. Thanks to 18S for all the insightful articles too.
Holding Bama to 31, and holding Clemson to 34, is good enough for a number of teams to win, not just Ohio State. Yeah, our receivers aren’t great but our line is. I think our offense performed pretty poorly these last two games. Talent is a part of that but I think it goes beyond that when you score so few points in today’s game.
Tim O’Malley had a good point if you look back at the last (now 8) losses, it’s all like 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1 touchdowns scored. Or whatever it is. Every time they lose it’s 2 or less TDs. With a 2 TD effort today, 1 in garbage time.
A Notre Dame WR didn’t have a catch until the last minute of the first half. I think some of that might be on Book’s cautiousness but they just aren’t trying to stretch the field vertically enough. I get playing to your strengths, and the strengths of a vet OL + multiple good TE’s + Kyren being great and Book extending plays and going off script will get you past a lot of teams…But that isn’t cutting it against the elite.
I’m fine with Jordan Johnson not being a factor if he wasn’t ready, but where was Lenzy? Where was concepts to spread and attack, even if it’s with TE’s going with depth? Tommy Rees has a lot to prove, especially next year without Book or a veteran OL.
Lenzy was in but did nothing. As usual.
For how many snaps? Enough to count on one hand? How many times was he actually targeted? Or touches did he get? If he did nothing, that’s a lot on the strategy.
Well, if he’s as good as some think, he would have showed up in those snaps. He was invisible. Assuming he was put in to stretch the field it didn’t happen.
My point is I don’t see any evidence to support all the expectations of him.
The evidence is last season. This isn’t a Jordan Johnson situation, isn’t even a Kevin Austin situation. Lenzy has demonstrated he can contribute. 454 yards and 4 TDs last year on 24 touches, with speed to potentially score on any snap.
That’s a guy who barely played in the last 2 games and who the coaches found no use to implement in the game plan. There could be a valid reason for this (still limited by injury) but it’s still a disappointment that ND wasn’t able to use the one weapon that could have legit tested Bama’s perceived weakness (safety play).
Must be a pretty stupid coaching staff to not use such a dangerous weapon….Most of Lenzy’s production has come against vastly inferior teams. My guess is he’d be third or fourth team on Bama.
Probably. But where do you think McKinley and Skowronek are?
I’m not saying Lenzy is 2015 Will Fuller or anything; but it certainly has to be a big disappointment that he wasn’t able to take a step forward this year on a team that needed more outside playmakers. He’s used his speed to make plays in the past, yet he barely played lately.
Injuries clearly played a part this year, too.
He’ll probably be the 2nd leading receiver next season.
Who do you project as leader?
It better be Kevin Austin.
Davonta Smith was Alabama’s #4 WR last year. Lenzy is also not nearly as good as Metchie. Alabama also has some other 5-stars.
He just wouldn’t be on the team. Like the rest of our WRs.
Exactly. We are all excited with our two top WR’s (which are 16 and 20 in the country) – as we should be.
https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/CompositeRecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool&Position=WR
Bama has 4(!!!), 4(!!!!) of the top 9 WR’s in the country in this year’s class.
There’s a reason they had 2 first round picks at WR last year.
OSU has 3 of the top 15.
This is why we need to start grabbing a couple of 5 stars every year just to stay close. And then we gotta get a little lucky that every single 5 star we get turns into an all american/1st round pick talent. You don’t need to have 1st round picks littered across the board to compete with them, but you need a chance to have at least 1 (future all-american/1st round pick) at a position group in a 4 year period.
That junior class of WRs is one big whiff so far
Kiwi, Ohio State’s advanced stats looking awfully good right nowwwww.
Thought I posted a reply last night?
I take everything back that I said about OSU. They made Clemson look inept.
re the advanced stats, did they project a blowout re Clemson?
Beat the spread, beat aTm’s result against ‘Bama…I’m not happy with the result, but we at least showed we were the best choice to be there. We looked infinitely better than the 2012 final and 2 years ago. And at least we’ll always have the first Clemson game from this year. This all sucks, but I feel that as much as Notre Dame fandom the past 30 years has been defined by suffering, this was a better finale to the year than the disappointment I’m used to experiencing.
Not picking on you, but I genuinely do not understand the idea that we looked much better than 2012 or 2018. The ACC title game was nearly identical to the 2018 Cotton Bowl in every respect. This game was a better than Bama 2012, statistically, but we never posed a serious threat. What are people seeing that I’m missing here? We are a much more consistent team, but we are not much closer to beating the top flight teams of college football.
Well I mean, I see a big difference from the 2012 Bama game to this one. In the trenches the last time Notre Dame didn’t belong and got ran out of the building. This time they had a chance, maybe even had a slight advantage physically in some areas.
Yards in 2018: Clemson 538- 248 ND
Yards today: Alabama 437 – 375 ND
You can say that Notre Dame never posed a threat, and you would also be totally correct. But this also was a 14-7 game in the 2nd quarter, and a two score game for 40 minutes.
2018 to Clemson, ND was down 3+ scores for over half the game.
So, I mean, there’s still some fairly sobering orders of magnitude in play but this game was a lot closer than past performances. Even if still not remotely close enough to actually threaten to win.
I’d say it was semi respectable, better than I expected. I did see progress.
We’re closer in the sense that we would win the game 3 times out of 100 instead of 1 time out of 100.
Didn’t watch the game, largely because I couldn’t. The ESPN.com gamecast system might be specifically designed to torture people that don’t pay for ESPN. I might try to catch the replay on Youtube but this article sounds more pessimistic than the box score indicates.
I did try search for this trivia but, how unusual is it for a team to play 3 top 3 teams in a year, with the possibility of playing 4? Our boys did that… for perspective.
We *did* go all-in on the running game and short passes. It was a terrible offensive gameplan. We needed to do something high variance to win, like you say, but that was taking shots against their relatively weak secondary.
Ian Book should have had 3 touchdowns passing, or 3 interceptions, or both. That was the only way to have a close game. Might have lost by 50, but might have pulled it out.
Instead, we had a strategy that gave us a 0% chance of winning and basically guaranteed a 2-4 TD loss.
I hate to even suggest this, but it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that we were just trying to keep the score low and respectable.
I think they were, but I also don’t think there’s any shame in that strategy. If Doerer makes that FG and they score at the end, Notre Dame loses by 7. That’s pretty respectable considering what Alabama does to most.
Don’t really see a problem with a ball control concept to limit Alabama’s possessions and keep them off the field. And I think it worked (i.e the 15 play, 8 minute drive in the late first/early second quarter that might have stopped this from being a total blowout and made it 14-7).
I did have a problem though not fully committing to the concept. When you run QB power on 3+7 on the second drive and punt anyways when it doesn’t work that’s just punting on the whole game.
No trick plays, no real creativity, no wrinkles, no Lenzy, no speed. It was just a poor offensive plan with a very low chance of working. You can beat Duke or GT like that, you can’t beat Alabama or Clemson.
I can’t think of a much worse strategy for a single elimination playoff game than “Just keep it respectable.”
I know it’s Bama, and I didn’t expect to win. But I did expect to try.
Notre Dame was never going to win a shootout against Alabama no matter how much they tried. That’s just digging their own grave quicker. I don’t have a problem with “try to keep it respectable and not fall apart in the 2nd quarter like we tend to do against elite opponents and then have the game be over by the time we get to the half”.
There’s something to be said about just hanging in there, trying to take their best shots, extending the game with 8 minute drives and seeing what could happen down the stretch. I did have issues with the overall lack of committing to such a strategy though by going for it on 4th downs more. If anything, if ND wanted to play conservative they should have gone all in on it. Probably still wouldn’t have worked, but wouldn’t have been worse than it ended up.
Yeah, I guess I’m convinced by the ND Analytics twitter that was saying the only way to compete was attacking their secondary. But, even so, the broader point was that the game plan that they did go with was just about as bad of one as they could have come up with, assuming you’re at all interested in attempting to win the game.
On time of possession, Ian Book said:
“That’s part of our plan. And they just made more plays than we did tonight. And we talked about that that all week. We were going to try to win the time of possession and then when it’s time to make a big play, make a big play. And they made more big plays. That’s why they came out victorious tonight.”
As you eluded to, correctly, and what Book said, what big play did the ND offense even attempt? It wasn’t there. That’s a coaching miscue in the heat of the moment.
I get the mentality that a strong OL, multiple TE’s, that’s what brought them to the dance, that’s the identity, but you gotta try to strike. Even the Clemson win, they had the long shot to Davis, McKinley had at least 2-3 really clutch deep grabs. ND doesn’t win that game without those plays. They didn’t try those types of shots today and that’s disappointing.
And if the goal was play ball control, you just can’t punt it away after running a designed QB run on 3+7. Might as well go down swinging, and they didn’t commit fully to that, which is a big reason why they weren’t in the game.
I appreciate that that account compiles all the advanced stats so I can look at them, but I strongly disagree with most of their analysis.
In a vacuum, yeah, ND was going to need to score a lot to win this game. But trying to win a shootout when you don’t have the horses is absurd. What did they want — Book forcing the ball to WRs covered by Patrick Surtain and Josh Jobe all game? Their analysis has a “why don’t the call the touchdown pass play??” flavor to it.
What ND needed to do was use more misdirection on the run and pass and use more play fakes on their passing, and take more gambles. Go for it on fourth around midfield. Don’t over rely on smash mouth run plays. Don’t wait til 3rd down to throw it to Mayer on crossing and out routes, etc.
We held Alabama to their lowest point total since 2018 and still lost by 3 scores. The offensive game plan was, to me, pretty terrible.
Rees has had a rough two games.
The not going for it after that QB power is exactly the kind of thing I was talking about. And if you want to go all in on running the clock, we probably should’ve passed even less than we did. Almost every play that submarined our drives was a pass gone wrong.
I’m with ya all the way. It was always going to be probably an impossible task with how good the Bama offense is. I don’t think the ND offensive strategy was right to give them a real chance.
Which is disappointing because it pretty much means they applied no lessons from the Clemson loss to this game. They tried to do carry over more or less the same concepts from last game that didn’t work into this game. And they scored 1 TD in the first 59 minutes of the game.
But all of our passes were short routes. The first downfield pass in the normal flow of play/non-two-minute offense was the interception. That was the third quarter! That’s borderline Navy-ish!
Slow developing short routes, though. I’m thinking more quick slants and stuff that got the ball out of Book’s hands faster.
Couldn’t agree more. Felt like I saw a lot of smash routes which just allow defenses to hold your WR as he tried to break the route back outside.
Saw a heat map on PFF that highlighted that Bama was susceptible 5 to 20 yards down the middle. We didn’t attempt a single seam route if I remember correctly.
Ian Book is a really good college QB. I thought it clicked in Clemson 1.0 that he needed to let it rip in order to beat these teams. Then he reverted to his old self in the ACCCG and today. I’m in no way saying we lost bc of him. Just needed him to let it rip and needed Rees and BK to encourage him to do so
But we also need guys to get separation. Didn’t happen much.
Has Book completed a seam route all season? It’s been perplexing that, with multiple good tight ends, the offense hasn’t event attempted to throw to them in the middle of the field. I don’t know if Book isn’t trusted to throw over the middle or literally can’t see over his line, but it’s been frustrating.
I don’t think our receivers have the speed to do anything against the elite DBs that Bama has. Same thing happened in the ACCCG vsClemson.
I notice OSU’s receivers had no problem torching Clemson tonite though. Olave is right up there as a talent at WR.
Clemson actually looked pitiful on defense. Serman (8) just ran right over them, and receivers were wide open for tds.
unexpected.
Oh we definitely don’t have guys who are going to get Alabama, Clemson, or OSU style open. I’m also not of the opinion that Lenzy and Johnson are the special ingredient and even if we did have a burner I don’t think Book is making throws like Fields did tonight on that 65 yard bomb.
My point is more you had to take chances and push the ball down the field against Bama to score enough to win the game. We had to do it in the ACCCG too, but we didn’t.
We did take some chances against Clemson 1.0 by pushing the ball down the field and Book letting his receivers win a 1 on 1 battle. That’s what I wanted to see more of and you could still play Time of Possession with that game plan. It’s asking Ian Book and this team to break tendencies I know that.
The argument isn’t that we should expect our WRs to beat the Alabama corners deep. It’s that the deep middle of the field is their relative weak spot, and also in order for a huge underdog to have a chance you basically need to just throw it up deep to big guys blanketed in one-on-one coverage and hope for the best.
Book’s game was far, far too cautious if you think ND should have actually tried to win the game. That’s why I said he should have had multiple touchdowns, interceptions, or both.
Easy to say, and not disrespectful of your opinion, but our guys need to get some separation. Davis was pretty invisible, as was McKinley. Skowronik had a couple wins, but is still a journeyman receiver. Mayer was most effective and will possibly be AA in the future, but isn’t a game breaker by any means.
We don’t have an effective passing attack if we can only rely on a freshman TE for any efficiency.
The other three teams in the playoffs had the key ingredients for NC success: Truly elite receivers, ditto the QBs, Stud RBs, and fast, good sized DBs. Against this level of competition, Clemson was weakest of the three. Without Ross, receiving is a bit weaker than the other two, and Etienne, good as he is, is not Harris or Sermon, brute strength plus speed.
I think ND has overachieved remarkably lately, considering the elites have essentially unrestricted recruiting. That will beat ND restricted recruiting virtually every time, and usually badly.
But we’ve somehow become just about the best at that tier below the rare, true elites. Hugely commendable progress, considering.
I don’t think they need that much separation. Our WR’s are not built on speed but on size. They look covered? Throw the ball to them anyway – if one on one – and let them go up and get it. We’ve done it before and we needed to do it last night but failed to.
This game infuriated me and not because I expected us to win or even expected us to cover. I just come away with the feeling that we weren’t even trying to win. I don’t mean that from the players. I thought they played hard and were just overmatched to a man. I really feel like BK and the staff put together a gameplan and then made in game decisions based on limiting a blowout instead of trying to win.
Kelly’s comments after the game, last year and after Clemson ’18 where he’s acknowledged that we don’t have the jimmy’s and joe’s that the big 3 have. Well if you know this you have to do something new with scheme and break tendencies. The best game plan of the year was Clemson on Nov 7th where they pushed the ball downfield. Then today and the ACCCG we refuse to throw the ball downfield. Williams is good, but not great. Tyree is an undersized freshman who doesn’t have the speed that is needed and without Tremble you definitely weren’t going to block as well as needed.
Can anyone explain BK calling punt on the 4th down with 4 minutes left? Why do we keep receiving the opening kickoff? How does a team who literally had nothing to lose come out and not go for it on 4th down, not throw a hail mary at the end of the half, not try 1 trick play, and not onside kick? All probably sour grapes from me, but just felt like the staff mailed this one in.
I completely agree. Kelly should’ve known he couldn’t be himself and win this game. Whether he actually knew or not, only he knows, but he didn’t do any of the things he needed to do to create extra chances.
Clemson was in about the same position (maybe worse) than us. After the 1st qtr, they were never really in the game. Even with their great recruiting of 5 stars and elite QB, it’s not good enough.
Secondary can’t hang with Olave-speed on the outside and not enough in the front-seven to stop the run and get to the QB.
So even Clemson just doesn’t have the jimmy’s and john’s: https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/ (pretty big drop from 3-4)
I don’t know what more anyone could have hope for out of today.
We can quibble about the Xs and the Os and the offensive strategy, but the reality is that this game was decided over the last five recruiting cycles, not by the play on the field today:
“During the previous five recruiting cycles (2017-21), Notre Dame signed one five-star prospect according to the 247Sports Composite. That was Michael Mayer. Clemson signed 15. Alabama signed 21.”
Scheme can only make up so much of that gap. Until we get 2-3 consecutive years worth of top-5 classes in the door, we’re still going to be a cut below the three elite programs even while competing and winning against everyone else.
I knew it was going to be a tough game when their tailback jumped over our corner and didn’t lose stride. We need some more dudes like that.