The 2019 rushing success rate from the running backs was not pretty. Except for the effort Tony Jones put in reaching greater heights than we thought possible, everyone below him was really struggling in a year where the talent in the backfield appeared to be in one of the worst shapes in recent seasons.
Here’s a brief recap of last year’s running back room:
Tony Jones – Exceeded all expectations, signed as a free agent with the Saints playing in their regular season finale.
Jahmir Smith – Transferred to App State after leaving the Irish early in 2020.
C’Bo Flemister – Repeated his role as competent backup.
Jafar Armstrong – Converted to receiver (not included below) and transferred to Illinois this off-season.
Avery Davis – Officially moved to receiver after 2019.
Kyren Williams – He got the rock a lot more in 2020 after taking a redshirt through a few games in 2019.
If you ask any Irish fans they’d tell you that the 2020 rushing game was far more effective than the 2019 version. While true, Notre Dame can look at this past season and find plenty of room for improvement.
2020 Running Back Stats
| PLAYER | CARRIES | YARDS | AVERAGE | SUCCESS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 211 | 1,125 | 5.33 | 51.6% |
| Chris Tyree | 73 | 496 | 6.79 | 47.9% |
| C’Bo Flemister | 58 | 299 | 5.16 | 58.6% |
| Jahmir Smith | 5 | 15 | 3.00 | 60.0% |
Note: I use the “old” advanced stat of measuring running success (40% of available yards on 1st down, 60% 2nd down, 100% on 3rd/4th down) because I’m not going back and re-calculating years worth of data. So, for most current success metrics these numbers are actually a bit kinder than you’ll see elsewhere. I generally think 52% (using my numbers) is the starting point for a good back unless you’re really explosive.
The biggest thing that I’ve been trying to do is square how well regarded Kyren Williams has become, not just in South Bend but nationally as well, when his stats don’t obviously back up that reputation. Namely, he’s not super explosive or fast and his success rate was pedestrian.
Additionally, Kyren’s rushing yardage didn’t crack the Top 10 in school history, his rushing average didn’t crack the Top 100 nationally in 2020 among qualifying runners, and his rushing success rate finished only the 12th best among Kelly-era backs who ran the ball at least 100 times in a season.
What gives?
To get the full picture with Williams you have to include his receiving ability which, added to his rushing, placed him 8th in the country in yards from scrimmage. Due to the numbers of games played being out of whack for everyone, Kyren’s yards from scrimmage per contest does drop him down to 32nd nationally, though. He was also 9th nationally in total rushing yards, to be fair. Still, the point remains that as an entire package and high-volume player Williams was good-to-great but as a pure runner he can get much better to enter the true elite level in college.
Last year, we talked about the saving grace of Tony Jones but at the same time he couldn’t get going in losses to Georgia and Michigan, going a combined 4 of 17 in success rate. It’s been a big problem throughout the Kelly era even in good rushing seasons–major rushing struggles against the top teams on the schedule tends to haunt the offense.
2020 did look a little brighter in this regard. Williams went 19 of 36 (52.7% just above his season average) in success rate with 204 yards and 4 touchdowns combined in the first Clemson game and in the Rose Bowl against Alabama. Now, that’s balanced off by a more familiar 4 of 15 (26.6%) success rate with just 50 rushing yards in the rematch against a healthier Clemson.
Nevertheless, in last year’s companion piece I mentioned that Kyren’s elusiveness would be welcomed and needed in 2020. He absolutely delivered on that.
For sure, Chris Tyree’s freshman year was extremely positive. His rushing average shows off his explosiveness but that success rate needs a lot of work in 2021. Tyree’s season overall was very up and down featuring 6 games of at least 8 yards per carry but also 6 games with 32 rushing yards or fewer.
In the 3 big games his sample size was small (8 carries) with a 12.5% success rate, the only positive run being his 21-yard touchdown late in the ACC Championship. I imagine he’ll be given a much larger role this fall as Kyren gets to rest a little more.
It’s tough to get a good read on the plan with Flemister. He didn’t get carries in 3 games (injured for the opener) and never really got any sustained action outside of late-game situations. He’s a good soldier mopping up games and perhaps doesn’t move the needle much for 2021 either way.
Notre Dame has potentially a great one-two punch at running back going into 2021. However, the very modest success rate last year and the need to break in several new offensive linemen with a new quarterback while losing perhaps the country’s top blocking tight end makes me think it’s possible we experience quite a bit of frustration running the ball this fall.
Moreover, the loss of Ian Book’s legs (228 rushing attempts and 1,031 yards for 2019-20) could really shift the mechanics of the offense. From 2014 through 2019, the Irish largely used mobile quarterbacks as part of the running game with the top 3 backs receiving anywhere from 63.2% (2014) of the total carries all the way down to just 49.4% (2019). That number–even with Book’s legs accounted for in the offense–spiked a bit to 67.7% last year which shows how much Kyren especially was trusted.
However, from 2010 to 2013 the top 3 running back carries were 71.0%, 78.5%, 70.1%, and 75.6% with mostly non-running quarterbacks in the mix. Jack Coan can move a little bit but if he wins the job you’d think it’s very possible the top 3 backs in 2021 are going to be around 70% of the carries. Either way, it’s difficult for me to look at the 2021 rushing success and not start with the passing game. Some combination of better efficiency or a lot more explosiveness than 2020 is going to be needed through the air to keep the ground game from bogging down.
This past year was a little better for explosiveness with 23 carries of at least 20 yards in just 12 games compared to 21 such carries in 13 games in 2019. The latter included some explosiveness on the ground from receiver Braden Lenzy and that was not replicated in 2020, either.
Lastly, a quick note that I mentioned in last year’s article was that I was impressed with Iowa State running back Breece Hall in the bowl game despite holding him to just 55 yards on 17 carries. I thought his elusiveness was special (pointing towards help coming from Kyren) and Hall would end up being a consensus All-American in 2020 after leading the nation in rushing.
Passing down the field should definitely help to open things up, but I also am hopefully we are able to get more Lenzy sweep action again this year. With the QB carry likely to be extremely rare on the read options this year, having Lenzy (or even Tyree) out wide as an additional running threat should help.
It is hard to watch Williams and not be impressed, even after some of the homerun hitters we have had lately. Williams is the first guy in a long time that will make someone whiff after having him dead to rights (or at least manage a glancing blow gaining another 2 yds).
He certainly looks like he is gaining more yards than he should be. I would have thought that would show up is in success rate. Maybe there’s a bit of flash that is distracting us while watching.
I can’t find these more nuanced and subjective stats. But I would be interested to see a comparison with Adams on success rate, broken tackles, and their respective teams’ OL yards (whatever the stat is that says the average yardage credited to the OL), to see how he stacks up with the best of the past decade.
Irregahdless, that pass blocking! swoooon
Those Williams stats are really interesting. My eye test says he might be the best running back ND has had in at least 15 years, but I suppose the stats say otherwise.
It just seems to me he gets an extra 1 or 2 yards that no other recent ND running back (other than maybe Riddick) would have gotten on a lot of carries. Plus, as you mention, once you factor in pass blocking and receiving ability, I still think he’s fairly special. But maybe he’s running into tacklers that, say, Josh Adams could have avoided altogether.
That’s now my working theory. He makes people miss that we can see, so while watching he looks better. But Josh made them never show up on screen in the first place. Kyren would never catch Adams on total yards or average, hard to do that when Adams would gain about 400 of his yds on 10 carries, but I really would have expected Williams success rate to be higher. And not just higher than Adams, but higher than 52%. I would have guessed 60%+.
It is strange to me, too. I felt like Kyren has work to do to pass Adams in my opinion but I would’ve guessed his success rate to be higher. It kept popping up in a few games this year where I felt like he didn’t do as well as it seemed watching him play.
I really feel like he needs more rest. He’s too physical and relies so much on hyper-agility while fighting for yards that I think he’ll perform better with 14 or 15 carries per game instead of nearly 18.
I thought that Kyren had a great year, but at times (esp later in the season) he seemed a little tired at times. It would be nice next year if Tyree can step in for significantly more carries so that both can remain fresher throughout each game and the season.
This seems like a no brainer to me. Spell Kyren, plus give more touches to our most explosive athlete. But since we can’t have nice things, of course we won’t see it.