Can we skip awarding this year’s Heisman Trophy? Can this year finally be the one where we award someone for the quality of their career? Don’t get me wrong now, I’m usually a staunch defender of the Heisman process and avoid the too-cool-for-school criticisms that it’s become a joke of an award. This year, though! It’s been rough which is weird coming off such a strange 2020 season when it was so obvious a wide receiver should win it.
Not only do we head into conference championship weekend with the winner as much of a mystery as I can ever remember at this point in the season, we’re juggling a cast of really weak candidates. At least in the traditional sense.
Heisman Trophy Presentation
Saturday, December 11th
9:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
I mean, it’s rough out there. Normally, this would be a pretty easy decision with the dominance Georgia has displayed this year but they are so defensively driven, haven’t had any offensive stars emerge, and have seen two quarterbacks play significant time.
Still, let’s figure this out…
If Alabama Beats Georgia
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young had a bit of a Heisman moment in a comeback win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl and if the Tide upset Georgia this weekend the Heisman is assuredly his to win. The odds are probably even in his favor in a loss if he is able to put up some big numbers and keep the game close.
This would be Nick Saban’s 4th Heisman winner. I wouldn’t love it (especially in a Tide loss) but I’d understand it. The Bama fatigue is very real.
Who’s Playing This Weekend
If the award isn’t going to Young we have 9 others in conference championship games this weekend who could jump up and win the Heisman. In no particular order:
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
A G5 player hasn’t won the award in the modern conference era so this seems super unlikely. There’d need to be massive carnage for the other players listed below but you never know.
QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
Here’s your career achievement award for Pitt’s all-time leading passer. Can he actually win it with a loss to a MAC team this year, though? Yup! Especially since he’s played at a high level pretty much every game (6 TD in that loss to Western Michigan) and he’ll have a bunch of offensive fireworks to showcase in the ACC Championship.
QB Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State
Sanders is a late addition as the Cowboys make a push toward the playoffs. As a runner, he’s made a case. As a passer, he’s nowhere near good enough to date. Going into this weekend he’s 70th in passer rating and 73rd nationally in passing yards. A massive Big 12 title game performance maybe opens the door a bit.
DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
If there ever was a year for a defender to take the award this is it. However, would the voters be swayed enough by Georgia’s 13th leading tackler and someone with just 3.5 tackles for loss? Those who watch the games would argue Davis is the most dominant player on the best defense in the country but this is going to be a tough sell for the rest of the country.
QB Stetson Bennett, Georgia
Vegas has Bennett still listed with not-terrible odds right now so we’ll include him. I’m not sure what kind of narrative needs to unfold for him to win, though. Maybe if he needs to throw for 500+ yards against Alabama and he wows the entire nation?
DE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Coming off a shocking 15 quarterback pressures and 3 sacks against Ohio State, I’m afraid to say that Hutchinson is squarely in the mix for the Heisman as a defender in a way that Georgia’s Jordan Davis just isn’t. He’s 3rd nationally in sacks, peaking at the right time, and has a lot of momentum on his side. I’d bet on him getting an invite.
RB Hassan Haskins, Michigan
If not Hutchinson, then maybe Haskins if Michigan romps over Iowa with a big offensive day? He’s currently only 17th in rushing yards with a more meager 5.05 yards per carry average. But, he’s scored 18 times on the ground, including devastating Ohio State with 5 scores, and has clearly entered the picture now.
QB Sam Hartman, Wake Forest
The bloom is off this rose a bit since Wake lost 2 out of its last 4 games. However, they will be playing for their first conference title since 2006 and only the 3rd in their program history this weekend. You have to think Hartman coming from a smaller program and with less impressive numbers has a tougher hill to climb than Pickett this weekend.
LB Will Anderson, Alabama
While so far playing in 2 fewer games, Will Anderson has the same amount of tackles (85), 9.5 more tackles for loss (29.5), and 2.5 more sacks (14.5) than Ndamukong Suh did back in 2009 for Nebraska. If any defender is supposed to win the Heisman should it be Anderson, especially if the Tide upset Georgia?
Opinion: If Will Anderson’s name wasn’t Will Anderson but something cooler like Deion Watts he’d be running away with the Heisman. pic.twitter.com/FJlfPRbj43
— € Murt (@EMMurtaugh) November 29, 2021
Anderson is a different player than Suh but that Nebraska team did suffer their 4th loss in the controversial Big 12 Championship before the Heisman voting and Alabama is much more high-profile today. Maybe the Heisman should clearly be Anderson’s?
The Backdoor Heisman
There are a few players not participating in championship weekend with decent remaining odds by Vegas:
QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Here was my overwhelming favorite to win the award up until this past weekend. Can you now give him the Heisman despite 2 losses and coming directly off a defeat to Michigan in maybe the most high-profile game of the season? I would think no way but his numbers against the Wolverines (34 of 49 for 394 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) were pretty freaking good.
QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss
Corral’s been hanging around the Heisman discussion all season, unfortunately that early-ish season loss to Alabama took him down a few notches and I’m not sure he ever recovered. He’s at nearly 4,000 combined yards and just 4 interceptions but the 31 touchdowns aren’t super impressive in combination with a lack of big wins.
RB Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State
Let’s say Alabama and Michigan lose this weekend, shouldn’t Walker be the main player sitting out championship games to swoop in for the award? He’s the current Power 5 leading rusher and if the Michigan State defense hadn’t of imploded against Ohio State limiting him to just 6 carries that lead would be enormous right now. With a Michigan loss to Iowa you could point to Walker (197 yards, 5 TD’s) beating Haskins (59 yards) in their head-to-head matchup.
Very strange year for the Heisman, possibly exacerbated by how devastatingly dominating Smith was last year, and with a ton of national exposure.
My vote would go to Will Anderson this year. The Georgia game may be decisive for someone on the winning team, whichever way it ends up. If Bama wins a defensive struggle punctuated by FGs, Anderson could win it.
Josh Pate at Late Kick has been beating the drum for him for a month or so.
Off topic, but Stewart Mandel made a pretty good point that our playoff hopes are likely over. Briefly, he highlighted past examples when the committee was less likely than poll voters to punish teams who lose in a conference championship.
Additionally, Cincinnati is our only opponent playing this week so our resume likely can’t improve in a significant way.
I think it’s pretty uncontroversial that ND needs two of four to happen to get in, if they do they’re in, if not they’re out.
There’s arguments to be made if, for instance, Alabama beats Georgia convincingly and one of the others happen, but since I personally believe the CFP committee begins each meeting by pledging allegiance to the SEC I’ve never though ND would win that argument. So two of four or more, we’re in. Fewer than two we’re out. Arguments that 2 loss teams will be in front of ND because of some kind of mystical conference reasoning are dumb.
The committee has never put a P5 team with more losses in over P5 teams with fewer losses, and, obviously to everyone that isn’t paid-by-the-click, they shouldn’t.
His argument is the committee is less likely to drop a team simply for losing a conference title game. They are more likely to consider the body of work than ap poll voters.
He’d be correct if his argument is that they’re less likely to drop them compared to other teams with the same number of losses after the conference game.
As it is he’s just trying to rile people up by stupidly saying losses don’t count if they’re in special magic games, which hasn’t ever been true.
More worried that the committee guy straight up said ND would be punished for having Kelly being gone and the coaching turmoil will effect the ranking. That’s bigger than the results of the conference championship games and possibly why OK State already jumped ahead of ND.
I think they might need like 3 of the things on your list to happen, just to leave no doubt and give no other choice.
The committee guy said that explicitly???
First, it’s in the “rules” about how they rank that the committee can take into account coaching situations, and they can also decide to torpedo Cincy if they win but Ridder gets hurt or something like that..
https://theathletic.com/2990148/2021/11/30/auerbach-the-college-football-playoff-committee-should-not-penalize-notre-dame-players-for-brian-kellys-actions/
His exact quote wasn’t as damning as I made it out to be, but it’s going to be a factor and it’s not going to help ND.
Yea, I knew it could be used as a piece of information. I was surprised that he would said it would definitely negatively affect ND.
It’s conceivable that if Freeman gets hired, the committee members might think that (especially for one game), the head coach not being there would *not* likely affect the teams performance negatively (or at least not enough to make a change in the rankings).
Yea, the problem is our resume got weaker with Wisconsin losing and they dropped out of the top 25. We don’t have even 1 top 25 win. At this point, I’d think that even a 2 loss team could possibly get in over us. 2 losses with something like 2 top 25 wins, 1 top 25 loss, and a loss to a decent but not top 25 team might be a better resume than us.
Though I realize our schedule is probably the strongest schedule out there without a top 25 win. At least I think I saw this somewhere – that essentially we a played a lot of teams in the 26-50 range.
I think Baylor (without looking at their SOS) would be a 2 loss team that would get in ahead of us because of the conference champ card. ND and Baylor would be pretty close (with a Baylor win against Okie st and our weak schedule), then the conference champ would break the tie so to speak.
And I’m not sure a close Bama loss would drop them below ND wherever we end up.
There’s been a lot of news this week, but let’s not forget that Ringo Starr is equally as talented as he is vapid. Never knew he was essentially John & Paul’s puppy.
Leave Ringo alone!
Says the guy with Ringo’s puppet master as an avatar
Can they just mail another one to Gino Torretta and play a Lord of the Rings rerun instead?
Bowl thoughts briefly, assuming we miss the playoff because zero or one of these things happen:
If none happen or just Houston over Cincinnati: Peach Bowl vs ACC Champ
If just Georgia beats Alabama: Fiesta Bowl vs MSU or Ole Miss
If just Baylor beats Oklahoma State: Fiesta Bowl vs MSU or Oklahoma State
If just Iowa beats Michigan: Fiesta Bowl vs Michigan
I’m not figuring out whatever calculus ESPN is doing that projects us against Baylor because the Sugar Bowl needs the Big 12 Champ (Baylor if they win) or second place team if Oklahoma State is in the playoff (either Baylor or Oklahoma) then the third place Big 12 team would have to be in the top 12 or so still to be an at-large Fiesta Bowl team.
Any of those matchups are definitely winnable, and except for the Peach Bowl vs ACCC they’re all pretty fun, with an obvious run away winner in a Fiesta Bowl vs Michigan.