Real football is almost here, and if you’re checking in after offseason hibernation, you may wonder how the 2022 schedule is shaping up. Good news, I’ve done your homework for you! Below is a summary of each of Notre Dame’s 12 opponents, with a recap of what the projection systems like about each, where the weak points are, and what human elements the computer systems don’t know. Last, you’ll find the same exercise repeated for Notre Dame and a tiered ranking of the opponents by how big of a threat they pose to the Irish.
If you want to dive into some of the projections on your own, links below:
Ohio State
Pre-season rankings: #2 (FPI), #1 (SP+)
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -250 / Under +200)
What the advanced stats like: The #1 offense
This one’s not complicated! The Buckeyes project as the best offense in the nation, with CJ Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba all in contention for the best college player at their positions. The wide receiver room is so loaded there are few questions about losing two first-round picks in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, and Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have a strong track record as an offensive brain trust.
It’s grasping for straws, trying to find some weak points. Offensive line depth could pose issues, especially late in the season, but the starting group looks extremely solid for the opener. A Heisman favorite in Stroud gets hurt? Five-star sophomore Kyle McCord steps in. JSN may be the most irreplaceable player in the lineup, and this is a loaded offense that will put up points on even the best defenses in FBS.
What the advanced stats don’t like: An imperfect defense in transition
Ohio State finished last season 1st in Offensive F+ but just 31st on defense, leading Day to bring in Jim Knowles as DC from Oklahoma State. The Buckeyes were 64th nationally in EPA (expected points added) per opponent pass attempt and hemorrhaged yards on the ground in their two losses (more on that below).
SP+ sees too much returning production (via the roster and transfer portal) and talent for the struggles to repeat themselves, and Knowles is a significant upgrade. OSU projects 13th in Defensive SP+ for this coming season, but there could be early growing pains similar to Marcus Freeman’s first few appearances helming Notre Dame’s defense.
What the advanced stats don’t know: If the Buckeye death star sealed off old weak points
Is the defense going to quickly bounce back to top-10 quality with Knowles and his hand-picked selection of transfers? Will Ohio State be good enough in the trenches to let the offense carry the day against the best teams on the schedule? No one will be able to stop this offense, but that was the case last year, too – the Ducks and Wolverines were just able to slow them down enough to cement wins.
The common thread in Oregon and Michigan’s victories? Some good old-fashioned manball, as both averaged over seven yards per carry and eclipsed 250 yards rushing on OSU. It’s not an ideal matchup for the Irish, with talent distribution on defense leaving some juicy matchups for Ryan Day’s skill position athletes against a less proven ND secondary. But Tommy Rees may be able to craft a rushing attack in Tyler Buchner’s first start that gives the Ohio State defense issues rather than trying to match Stroud and company through the air.
Marshall
Pre-season rankings: #58 (FPI), #63 (SP+)
Season win total: 7 (Over -135 / Under +115)
What the advanced stats like: A well-rounded G5 program coming off of a nice year
Marshall’s statistic profile from 2021 is incredibly average, which for a G5 program is more of a compliment than criticism! There were few glaring weaknesses for opponents to exploit and a very workmanlike offense. The Herd finished 55th in F+ last season, 52nd on offense, and 46th on defense. There’s significant skill position talent returning on the roster, highlighted by RB Rasheen Ali. Transfer portal musical chairs saw Grant Wells leave for Virginia Tech and Henry Colombi come in from Texas Tech (probably net neutral?).
SP+ projects Marshall to dip slightly, to 63rd overall, but with the offense and defense ranked in the 60s. The passing defense was one of the Thundering Herd’s strengths in 2021, and key corners and pass-rushers return.
What the advanced stats don’t like: A lack of continuity across the board
Charles Huff’s team ranks 103rd in returning production, with hits on both sides of the ball. The offense (99th in weighted returning production) has just one offensive line starter coming back. The defense (87th) has question marks up the middle with turnover at defensive tackle and safety. If a few more key pieces were coming back, including more upside at QB, this is a potential Toledo-like threat. But so much transition will hinder Marshall’s upside and place the Herd just behind the Sun Belt favorites.
What the advanced stats don’t know: Can Marshall avoid beating themselves?
Marshall finished last season 107th in turnover margin, ranking 100th+ in both interceptions per pass attempt and fumbles per game. They were also below average in penalty yards – these are all the elements that would kill any hope for an upset in South Bend.
Cal
Pre-season rankings: #67 (FPI), #74 (SP+)
Season win total: 5.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
What the advanced stats like: A top-40 level defense
The Golden Bears have formed a defensive identity around their head coach Justin Wilcox and finished 48th in Defensive F+ last fall. It’s not a slam dunk Cal will be better this fall, but at 44th in returning defensive production, including adding productive transfers like Washington LB Jackson Sirmon and Utah DE Xavier Carlton, there’s a decent chance. SP+ projects Cal at 39th on defense, with a strong secondary and inclination to ugly up games against more talented opponents.
What the advanced stats don’t like: An offense in need of an overhaul
Cal’s offense has not been good for a very long time. And 2022 doesn’t look like the breakthrough year – after finishing 82nd in Offensive F+ last season, the Bears 126th in returning offensive production. Purdue transfer Jack Plummer is the favorite to take over at quarterback for Chase Garbers, which might be the best short-term move but further hinders future offensive upside.
Longtime NFL offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has tried to install a pro-style system at Cal but struggled mightily to put points up in his first two seasons. There are glimpses of hope – top-30 rushing efficiency last year and moving the ball better at times than the scoreboard may have indicated, with offensive EPA out-pacing points per drive. But the outlook remains grim, which has to be frustrating for the defensive side of the ball.
What the advanced stats don’t know: If Cal can hold up in the trenches enough to go bowling
The weakest part of each side of the ball for Cal is the line. The Golden Bears finished 98th in opponent rushing success rate last season and need to replace three starters on the offensive line. The Musgrave scheme in recent years feels like an attempt to channel Harbaugh-era Stanford, without the personnel to do it successfully.
If they can cobble together the pieces to stop the run on defense and give Plummer time on offense, a bowl appearance seems likely, with the potential to catch some breaks and pull an upset or two. But if those question marks remain, this is a team that will lose a lot of games with scores like 24-13.
UNC
Pre-season rankings: #19 (FPI), #34 (SP+)
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +115 / Under -135)
What the advanced stats like: Phil Longo’s offense
The Sam Howell and Phil Longo partnership was a beautiful thing for the Tar Heels, leading to high-quality offenses each of the past three seasons (26th in Offensive F+ in 2019, 4th in 2020, and 15th in 2021). Last season the offense was 17th in explosiveness and top-10 in rushing EPA and success rate, despite a lot of turnover at skill positions. There’s a strong enough track record there and returning production, led by superstar WR Josh Downs, that SP+ still projects UNC 11th on offense despite the loss of Howell.
The skill position talent should be strong, and Longo has managed to engineer strong rushing attacks despite shaky offensive line play the past few seasons. Drake Maye and Jacolby Criswell provide two options with pedigrees to lead the offense, although both are inexperienced. Cards on the table, I think the computers are likely overestimating this offense. The offensive line was brutal in key situations last season – 126th in sack rate allowed, 72nd in stuff rate, and 96th in power success rate. They now must replace three starters, and while things couldn’t get much worse in pass protection, what if now there are challenges running the ball along with a new QB running for his life?
What the advanced stats don’t like: A defense that keeps regressing
The case for UNC as an ACC contender last year hinged on a talented but young defense taking a major leap. The Tar Heels roster includes plenty of blue chip options in the front seven, and former all-ACC CB Storm Duck and five-star CB Tony Grimes Jr. Injuries played a role, but Carolina was brutal on defense last season – 88th in EPA allowed per play, 115th in rushing success allowed, and 105th in yards per play allowed.
North Carolina is 25th in returning defensive production, so SP+ and others expect improvement. The blue-chip talent is now sophomores and juniors, where it’s starting to become “now or never” time. They’re projected to improve to 70th on defense (from finishing 99th last season), which seems reasonable and maybe even conservative given the talent level. But expecting this to be better than a middle-of-the-pack defense within the ACC feels ambitious.
What the advanced stats don’t know: Is Mack Brown falling back into old habits?
Despite continued success on the recruiting trail, the tone of Mack Brown revival tour has shifted from “see, he’s still got it!” to “oh, right, this stuff again”. After a strong 2020 season, expectations ballooned so far that the Heels were preseason top-10 heading into last season for Howell’s final year. Of course, UNC sputtered out of the gate, dropping the opener at Virginia Tech, losing (by 23!) to a woeful Georgia Tech team, and at home against FSU. After the game, Mack dropped some hall of fame level spin zone on the disappointing start:
“My expectation is to win every game, so three times we’ve met it and three times we haven’t,” Mack said. “The national media expectation, the expectation for us to be a top-10 team, were wrong. So I guess we should all be critical of the media for picking us that high.”
After finishing 3-5 in the ACC and 6-7 overall, Mack fired Jay Bateman as defensive coordinator. That was a perfectly defensible decision, cutting bait on what had seemed like an inspired hire but had shown no signs of fielding a quality defense. The troubling pick was hiring old buddy Gene Chizik, who had been out of coaching since 2016 and hasn’t led a quality (top-40) defense since 2006. The defense almost has to improve from last season, but was Chizik the best pick? The move echoed the end of Mack’s time in Austin, when as the team struggled, Brown went back to old familiar faces like Major Applewhite and Greg Robinson versus a broader coordinator search.
BYU
Pre-season rankings: #46 (FPI), #25 (SP+)
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +115 / Under -135)
What the advanced stats like: Everyone’s back! (From a great offense + shaky defense)
The Cougars are #2 in FBS in returning production, including 1st on defense and 28th on offense. This bodes exceptionally well for a team that finished 9-3 last season and was 42nd in F+. How the continuity plays out looks very different considering BYU’s extreme profile – last season, they had the 7th best offense in F+ paired with the 84th ranked defense.
The offense has a realistic shot at fielding a top-10 caliber unit again. QB Jaren Hall is a threat with his legs and sported a 20:5 TD-INT ratio last season despite missing some time due to injury. He has a deep group of experienced options at WR returning, highlighted by big play threat Puka Nacua and senior Gunner Romney (who has 1,900 career receiving yards). The offensive line was terrific run-blocking and in pass protection last season and returns four starters.
What the advanced stats don’t like: There’s only so much a terrible defense can realistically improve
This grossly oversimplifies things, but a projection system like SP+ essentially sees the 84th best defense in 2021, returning almost 100% of the production from last year, applies some fancy recruiting adjustment, and projects out the Cougars as the 49th ranked defense heading into the fall. That feels more than generous – and a bit risky, as I’ve seen previous ND opponents with this formula (everyone returning from a bad defense) fail to meet the lofty computer expectations (see Virginia Tech 2018, Georgia Tech 2020).
BYU was not capable of much on defense last year, ranking 90th or worse in line yards allowed rushing, sack rate, and success rate on the ground and through the air. On the one hand, young talent usually reaps the benefits of such struggles with time, maturation, and experience. On the other, it’s often fair to question in these situations if all the pieces returning will end up with roughly the same result if there are significant personnel or scheme issues at the root. Either way, the Cougars should be one of the most fun teams to watch in 2022, with tons of shootouts and an ambitious schedule that features Baylor, Oregon, Arkansas, Boise State, and Stanford in addition to the Shamrock Series game in Vegas.
What the advanced stats don’t know: How things will unfold leading into Vegas
Both Notre Dame and BYU will be seriously tested by the time they reach Allegiant Stadium. The Irish have the opener in Columbus and then a decent road test in Chapel Hill, while the Cougars will host Baylor in Week 2 and then travel to Oregon the next week. It’s a longshot for BYU, but based on their offense and schedule, they may be the team outside the Irish and P5 with the best chance of pulling a Cinderella playoff appearance with their schedule this season.
Kalani Sitake’s team will likely be favored hosting Baylor and single-digit underdogs going to Oregon – this may be a top-10 matchup! But 3-2 is also in play, and while I’m sure BYU would love to get a signature win, their confidence could be shaken if they can’t grab a win in those big early games. Similarly, while Notre Dame has avoided let-downs after tough losses in the Brian Kelly era, how will the Irish start this game if they drop the game against the Buckeyes and have any drama at UNC.
Stanford
Pre-season rankings: #62 (FPI), #77 (SP+)
Season win total: 4.5 (Over +120 / Under -140)
What the advanced stats like: Good returning production on both sides of the ball
The previous week’s opponent is #2 in returning production, and then #3 Stanford visits South Bend. The Cardinal are 2nd in returning offensive production and 14th in returning defensive production, with a few areas of hope despite a 3-9 performance last year. The passing offense could be solid, as QB Tanner McKee showed flashes of promise in the upset of USC and TE Ben Yurosek and WR Elijah Higgins return as the top two leading receivers. The entirety of the offensive line is back, for better and worse. The secondary should be one of the more stable units, and the linebacking corps has a ton of experience and production (with questionable quality).
What the advanced stats don’t like: Recent performance and vibes remain bad
Stanford was awful last year, finishing 97th in F+, just below Navy and Georgia Tech. The team once known for its offensive line and heavy rushing packages finished 123rd in rushing success rate. And somehow, the Cardinal run defense might have been worse, almost dead last in FBS in opponent rushing success and EPA/play. Will this get better? Probably not, because there is one returning player on the defensive line who has started one (1) game. Six defensive linemen are listed on the roster before freshmen arrive, and three are walk-ons.
The Cardinal are 11-19 the past three seasons and seem headed for another ugly year in 2022. By SP+ projections, Stanford is favored in just two games, against Colgate and hosting Washington State. Even with the returning production, SP+ projects David Shaw’s team 77th, including 90th on defense. Lance Anderson is still leading the defense despite the recent struggles, so there’s not even upside for a scheme change that could inject new life into that side of the ball.
What the advanced stats don’t know: Is David Shaw finally on the hot seat?
Evolution in the college football landscape likely continues to hurt Stanford – it’s a relatively unengaged fanbase unlikely to be big NIL spenders despite lots of rich alumni, they can’t take advantage of the loose transfer portal rules, and many of their veteran players end up transferring with the difficulty getting into a Stanford grad program. It’s a hard job that has gotten harder as Harbaugh and Shaw’s early success have worn off, and it might be getting close to the end of the line. The highlights below, with Stanford at #7 in the polls, feel like an eternity ago! (Related: If you had to rank the most fun quarters of the last decade, the fourth quarter of this game has to be way up there).
Maybe Stanford appreciates their place in the new football order and will continue to give Shaw a long leash as long as he represents the university well. The recruiting, while short on numbers, actually is in a solid place over the last few classes. But if Stanford isn’t ready to settle for the Pat Fitzgerald plan, especially with the Pac-12 in a state of disarray, it might finally be the offseason for David Shaw NFL rumors to be replaced with a real search for someone new to lead this program.
UNLV
Pre-season rankings: #117 (FPI), #110 (SP+)
Season win total: 4.5 (Over +120 / Under -140)
What the advanced stats like: Young guys who struggled getting older
Are you sensing a recurring theme? The Rebels are 16th in returning production after finishing 111th in F+ last season, and ranking in the triple digits on both sides of the ball. UNLV was bad but at least young and at times frisky, beating New Mexico and Hawaii by two touchdowns and keeping things interesting against two of the better Mountain West teams, Fresno State and San Diego State. This is a rebuilding program, that still projects to be bad in 2022, but at least has some room for growth and isn’t losing a ton of snaps too.
What the advanced stats don’t like: Virtually everything
UNLV is projected 114th in offense and 94th on defense, representing slight offsetting improvements in defense and declines on offense. It’s challenging to walk through their advanced stats profile and find categories where the Rebels rank inside the top 100 in FBS. Notre Dame is projected to be around a five-touchdown favorite in this matchup.
What the advanced stats don’t know: How many ND players get to play in this game
Guys, I can’t go that deep into UNLV, it’s going to be a blowout.
Syracuse
Pre-season rankings: #60 (FPI), #57 (SP+)
Season win total: 5 (Over +120 / Under -140)
What the advanced stats like: Making steady gains back to respectability
Since Dino Babers’ breakout 2018 season where the Orange finished 10-3, it’s been ugly. Syracuse is 5-21 in ACC play in the last three seasons, and it’s a critical year with Babers under contract until 2023. This is a program desperate to go bowling again.
It’s yet another program with very strong returning production (15th overall / 29th offense / 17th defense). The defense improved from 83rd to 70th in F+, and should continue the upward trajectory. The back seven was extremely young (virtually all freshman and sophomores) and all return for 2022. The defensive line is almost entirely turning over, but this should be one of the better defenses in the ACC next season.
On offense, Syracuse put together one of the best rushing attacks in the ACC (10th nationally in EPA/rush) behind star freshman RB Sean Tucker. The offensive line struggled in pass protection but opened up enough holes for Tucker to average over six yards per carry. QB Garrett Shrader was the team’s second-leading rusher and can also do some damage as more of a power runner. SP+ projects Syracuse to improve enough on both sides of the ball to crack the top-60 in FBS.
What the advanced stats don’t like: A weak passing game could doom the bright spots
Syracuse featured one of the worst passing offenses of any P5 program last year – 111th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 117th in passing success rate. Poor pass protection played a role, but Shrader will be on thin ice as the starter at QB. Babers stole OC Robert Anae from UVA in the coaching transition, which offers hope, but the wide receiver room is still incredibly young (two freshmen were the leading receivers last season).
Even with continuity, this is arguably the least talented roster in the ACC Atlantic this year. It will be difficult for potential strengths like the passing defense and running game to shine if the complementary parts (passing game, OL, DL) remain weak spots.
What the advanced stats don’t know: How the Orange will hold up after the bye, if Dino survives 2022
Syracuse’s first five games are all winnable – hosting Louisville, Purdue, and Virginia, with UConn and Wagner looking like guaranteed wins. The schedule after that bye is brutal, though – in consecutive weeks, the Orange host NC State, travel to Clemson, host Notre Dame, and then go to Pitt. The final few games are slightly easier, but still feature no high probability wins – hosting Florida State, then at Wake Forest and Boston College.
Syracuse will need to figure out the quarterback and defensive line early, win some early games against P5 opponents, and then hope they have their ducks in a row for the end of the season. There’s a very good chance ‘Cuse could lose six of their last seven, which would likely be the nail in the coffin for Babers unless this roster has flashed enough early to hang onto his job.
Clemson
Pre-season rankings: #4 (FPI), #6 (SP+)
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +110 / Under -130)
What the advanced stats like: Arguably the best defense in the land
The Tigers finished last season 3rd in Defensive F+ and are projected 2nd in Defensive SP+, behind only Wisconsin (I’ll happily bet on Clemson to finish better, please and thank you). The defensive line is the highlight, with insane star power and depth. Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy are 1st round talents, and Tyler Davis is not far behind as a run-stopping DT in the middle. Xavier Thomas somewhat surprisingly returns at DE for a senior season after bouncing back and flashing his #1 overall recruit pedigree last year. Trenton Simpson is arguably the best LB in the country.
There’s transition to manage beyond DL, with five of seven starters at linebacker and in the secondary departing. But Brent Venables has always been big on rotations, so the depth stepping in is battle-tested. The best place to attack this Clemson defense will likely be through the air for the rare team that can protect their QB long enough.
What the advanced stats don’t like: The offense taking a major step backward in 2021
It flew under the radar because the scheme wasn’t as glaringly inept, but Clemson’s offense was basically Iowa South in 2021. They finished 109th in EPA per play, with the 107th ranked passing success rate. DJ Uiagelelei completed only 56% of his passes and had more interceptions than touchdowns. The talented wide receiver room featured a lot of big bodies that struggled to get open and produce much downfield.
SP+ sees the past track record and the returning talent and projects improvement from 79th last season to 39th this year. The rushing game was serviceable toward the end of last season and better with freshman and former ND target Will Shipley on the field. The offensive line struggled early but seemed to figure things out down the stretch and returns four starters. The defense is so good that the passing game and offense merely need to be serviceable for this to be a playoff contender (to win a playoff game will probably require a bit more).
What the advanced stats don’t know: How well internal promotions will work for Dabo, including figuring out QB
With Brent Venables and Tony Elliott finally moving on, Dabo Swinney looked internally to promote both new coordinators from within (Brandon Streeter on offense, Wes Goodwin on defense). For a successful program to lean on continuity wasn’t surprising, but losing a historically great coordinator like Venables has to hurt, at least in the long-term. Further complicating how well Clemson handles transition is Dabo’s reluctance to leverage the transfer portal. While recent peers like Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama scoop proven talent to fill in gaps, the Tigers risk falling behind thanks to Swinney’s stubbornness.
The massive question is who will be starting at quarterback when Clemson visits Notre Dame Stadium in early November. Swinney has usually arrived at the best quarterback when a change is needed but has sometimes been slow to pull the trigger (see: not initially starting Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence). The Tigers could still be winning on the defense’s strength but be torn between an inconsistent DJU and the promising but inexperienced Klubnik.
Navy
Pre-season rankings: #104(FPI), #113 (SP+)
Season win total: 4.5 (Over +105 / Under -125)
What the advanced stats like: Not much, but at least few unforced errors
While I don’t miss frisky and dangerous Midshipmen teams, it’s a pretty depressing program at the moment. Navy finished 93rd in F+ last season, including 101st in offense. A triple option team finishing 113th in rushing success rate is completely doomed, and the few desperate pass attempts were 129th in success rate (almost dead last in FBS).
If we look for bright spots, the run defense held up decently (44th in opponent run success). The Middies at least didn’t commit penalties (8th fewest yards) and held on to the ball (27th in turnover margin).
What the advanced stats don’t like: Bad performance + high turnover = yikes
After the struggles of 2021, Navy loses a ton of production on both sides of the ball. Ken Niumatalolo’s team is 120th in returning production, even with QB Tai Lavatai returning. The defense, which was the better side of the ball last season, will be extremely young and inexperienced, and Lavatai will have a new cast of guys to hand or pitch the ball off to. It’s probably not going to end well, but with how poorly last season went, you can at least make the argument that even with new faces, the only way to go is up.
What the advanced stats don’t know: Why Notre Dame keeps playing this game every year
We all know the history and tradition, but the permanent place on the schedule is becoming the scheduling equivalent of the St. Louis Spirits deal for NBA rights. At some point, consider things even and put them on a once every five-year rotation as a peace offering.
Boston College
Pre-season rankings: #59 (FPI), #76 (SP+)
Season win total: 6.5 (Over +115 / Under -135)
What the advanced stats like: An improving defense, talent on offense
Jeff Hafley inherited an awful defense in Chestnut Hill (108th in Defensive F+) but has made steady improvements each season (to 92nd in 2020, then 61st last season). The pass coverage has come together, as BC finished in the top-30 in both passing success rate allowed and defensive explosiveness. The secondary returns four of five starters, so that strength should continue if they can get a bit more from the pass rush (81st in sack rate)
On offense, Phil Jurkovec and Zay Flowers are one of the better QB-WR combinations in the division. Pat Garwo was a 1,000-yard rusher last season. The returning production numbers probably undersell BC a bit, as it dings them for losing backup Dennis Grosel’s production when it should be upgraded with Jurkovec.
What the advanced stats don’t like: The defensive line and offensive reality vs. potential
Boston College’s success defending the pass was hindered by a run defense that was 84th in success rate allowed. It could improve with decent continuity on the defensive line and at linebacker, but depth is thin. Aiding to the challenge is the lack of clear answers providing more pressure on the QB.
This will sound like sour grapes from any Notre Dame fan, but Phil Jurkovec remains more potential than proven commodity. His 2020 breakout was pretty inefficient and very feast or famine depending on opponent defenses. Jurkovec was barely healthy in 2021, but his accuracy by advanced numbers continues to be well below average, especially in the short-intermediate range. You can look at the potential of this offense with an NFL prospect at QB and at WR1, combined with returning skill talent. Or you can see a QB who has some issues, behind an offensive line with major question marks, trying to figure things out with a new coordinator.
What the advanced stats don’t know: Is the OL situation going to tank the entire offense?
Any time an offensive line has a ton of turnover, it’s a red flag. The Eagles had the tall task of replacing four starters but at least returned all-ACC talent (and all-name team) Christian Mahogany. Then Mahogany tore his ACL in summer workouts – not great! A lot of the argument for this team to be dangerous and go bowling depends on Jurkovec staying healthy and making things happen. It’s hard to envision that happening unless the brand new line can step in and hold its own immediately.
USC
Pre-season rankings: #35 (FPI), #51 (SP+)
Season win total: 9.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
What the advanced stats like: The overhauled offense
Even in a miserable and strange year, the 2021 USC offense was still competent (44th in Offensive F+). Now the Trojans have Lincoln Riley calling plays, a top-tier talent like Caleb Williams at quarterback, and a brand new set of skill position weapons stolen from Pitt, Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. Riley’s ability to immediately grab these talented pieces like Jordan Addison, Travis Dye, and Mario Williams, just to add to what Clay Helton left in the cupboard, is absurd.
What the advanced stats don’t like: This was not a good team last year, especially defensively
USC is probably the hardest single team in the country to project for two reasons. One is the massive turnover on the roster, with insane transfer numbers coming in and a lot of graduation and transfers out as well. The second is that when you fire your coach in Week 2, it’s fair to question the team’s motivation in the remaining ten games and that last year’s numbers might be less predictive of USC moving forward than the average team.
Still, the defense finished 108th in Defensive F+, so there’s a long way to go to respectability. Lincoln Riley brought Alex Grinch with him to Los Angeles, which could have been much worse from a rival fan perspective! The defensive line returns many familiar faces, but most linebackers and secondary are a combination of young talent and transfers. There are enough bodies that they’ll likely find competence at some positions, but it’s hard to see many position groups on the defense turning into true strength.
If you squint, the best-case scenario team might be that this statistically looks a lot like Oklahoma last year, which finished 4th in Offensive F+ and 56th on defense.
What the advanced stats don’t know: How much they should be adjusted for the Lincoln Riley makeover
Most projection systems simply aren’t built to account for a complete roster overhaul like what USC experienced. How do you quantify the change between Clay Helton and one of the best offensive minds in all of football, regardless of level? What adjustment should be made for bringing in 20+ transfers and their various production levels elsewhere when those guys can’t all get on the field simultaneously?
The computers, no doubt, underrate USC. But expectations may still be a little too lofty, even with an incredibly soft schedule. Let’s say the Trojans are massively under-projected by SP+, and you bump their offense to a top-10 level and improve the defensive rating by a full touchdown. As a whole, those adjustments put SC just inside the top 25 – a good team and a possible threat to make the Pac-12 title game with a favorable draw and weak conference. But not one that poses a real threat to the playoff, which is the hype they’ve received in some corners of the college football media.
Last, a look at Notre Dame in these same categories since this is an annual request with the opponent deep dives:
Notre Dame
Pre-season rankings: #5 (FPI), #7 (SP+)
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -150 / Under +130)
What the advanced stats like: Consistent recent success and the defense
Each of the past four seasons, the Irish have finished in the top 15 in F+, despite SP+ often being relatively low on Notre Dame thanks to cool conference adjustments, harsh dings for playoff performances against future champions, and a lack of blowing out cupcakes relative to other programs. In the same time, Notre Dame hasn’t had an individual unit (offense or defense) rank outside of the top-30. It’s pretty remarkable stability, with the defense leading the way, finishing in the top-20 each of those four seasons, and ranking behind the offense just once (in 2020, behind by one spot).
Expectations are high on both sides of the ball – SP+ projects the Irish 26th on offense and 8th on defense, the highest projection since 2018. That team looked like a lock to be a top-5 unit, and while there are a few more question marks for this year’s team, mostly in the secondary, that ceiling is definitely in play. The front seven has an incredible combination of talent, experience, and depth, giving Al Golden’s defense a very high floor. And while the secondary has a few more pieces to solidify, there’s a potential star at each position group with Cam Hart and Brandon Joseph, with a mix of veteran depth and young talent with upside that should provide solutions to fill out the depth chart.
What the advanced stats don’t like: Lack of returning production keeps the Irish out of the top tier
Notre Dame is 93rd overall in returning production, including 113th on offense. The projection systems see the Irish losing nearly all of their passing yards, their leading rusher, and leading receiver and see a decent chance for a drop-off from last year’s 20th ranked unit in F+. Trading Jack Coan for (presumably) Tyler Buchner opens up a wider range of outcomes, for better and worse.
Compared to other top programs, Marcus Freeman’s team lacks a “slam dunk” elite unit (this has also been the case for recent Brian Kelly teams). The defense should be very good, but wasn’t quite elite last year and isn’t on the high end of returning production (56th). The offense has been consistently solid but hasn’t cracked the top 15 in offensive F+ since 2017. The past few seasons prove that being very good on both sides of the ball can win a lot of games, but to make the playoffs, it will take over-performing these projections on both sides of the ball.
What the advanced stats don’t know: What does the Kelly to Freeman transition look like?
This is the big, obvious question after such a significant regime change. While this isn’t the most dramatic coaching change of the offseason, with Freeman likely keeping much of the defensive identity intact and Tommy Rees returning, there are still plenty of unknowns. While Freeman is already elevating Notre Dame’s recruiting, the focus will quickly shift to other head coaching abilities this fall. How is his in-game decision-making and willingness to adjust and adapt at the right times? How will players continue to develop? What will be different about his process for game-planning, managing the staff and locker room?
While Brian Kelly was a less dogged recruiter, he quietly was very successful in many of these areas. Sure, he had some big-game shortcomings, but he also deserves credit for avoiding big upsets and winning an extremely high percentage of his recent games against less talented teams. Freeman will have similar talent advantages over 3/4 of the schedule, but it will be fascinating to see his initial mindset managing this team with high expectations through situations as an underdog, favorite, and high-pressure moments.
Putting it all together
Above you can see the projected SP+ margins for each of Notre Dame’s games in 2022, with the Irish favored in 11 of 12 contests. If you’ve made it this far, you might be wondering how I’d rate the difficulty of each of these opponents, taking into account the projections but also what we see and know that they can’t capture.
Tier I: Ohio State
I don’t think there’s much of an argument that Clemson belongs in the same tier. In terms of a Notre Dame matchup and in general team-building, I’d argue an elite offense is scarier than an elite defense. The Buckeyes fielded a much better team in 2021, with a “weakness” that is starting from a much better place and with a clear path to improvement (new DC, returning talent, transfers to fill gaps). Add in the roughly 6-point swing in having to travel to Columbus versus host the Tigers and this game belongs by itself.
Tier II: Clemson
The explanation above might lead you to believe I’m down on Dabo Swinney’s team, but I still believe in Clemson this year. The Tigers probably have the roster closest to pulling off what UGA accomplished last year, winning with a suffocating defense and getting enough from QB and the offense to win nearly every game. If you forced me to pick, are they the 4th likeliest playoff team with the massive drop-off after Alabama, OSU, and UGA? I think so, and I think their combination of near-certainty fielding an elite defense and upside offensively makes this again a one-team tier.
Tier III: BYU & USC
I’m fascinated by these two teams that have so much in common but are constructed so differently. BYU’s projection (13th offense / 49th defense) feels very close to what USC should be, factoring in all the transfers and likely coaching and engaged player upgrades. The Trojans unquestionably have the edge in talent with NFL ceilings, yet the Cougars offensive line is probably better and they boast a really impressive skill position group too. BYU returns virtually everyone from last season, including their QB, coordinators, and entire defense; USC is a totally new assembled group from rosters all over the country. Both will pose threats to the Irish defense with their dangerous offenses and hope their defenses can improve enough to get the stops needed to win a lot of shootouts.
Tier IV: UNC, Boston College
This might be too many tiers, but if we try to break apart the blob of mediocre teams, these are the two with some dangerous upside. For Boston College, there are real pieces there with a decent defense, Jurkovec’s potential, and skill position talent if they can duct tape together an offensive line (and some of the new guys on that line are blue chips). For UNC, there’s so much unrealized talent on the defense that with development and health, could make a massive leap. Offensively Longo has a strong track record, Josh Downs is a monster, and they just need to figure out a QB. I’m not sold that either of these teams can hang with Notre Dame in the trenches enough to pull off an upset, but I can see these teams finding their way into the rankings and decent bowls in a best-case scenario, but not those below.
Tier V: Cal, Marshall, Syracuse, Stanford
These teams all have some nice pieces but are fundamentally flawed in ways that make it difficult to see them posing much of a threat. It would take a ton going wrong in these games for things to be tight, and this is another situation where Notre Dame’s strength on both lines makes things difficult for less talented teams. Syracuse might be able to string together a couple of long runs, or Cal get a few stops, or Stanford find some scoring drives airing it out. But over time, you expect Notre Dame’s advantages rushing the passer, stopping the run, and grinding things out on the ground if needed to carry the day. One-dimensional offenses should have a very tough time against this defense.
Tier VI: UNLV, Navy
Without being mean, these teams truly just don’t have much going for them at all. The real aim in these games is to secure them early, stay healthy, and get meaningful reps for many 2nd and 3rd string guys on the roster.
GIVE US THE MATRIX!!!
Off Subject but Hanafin CB’d by Wiltfong to Clemson, ND gives offer to Taeshaun Lyons. Sad to see Hanafin leaning toward Clemson, however glad the staff has a backup plan to get the number of recruits in the class that they need. Lyons looks like h may be a bit better than his 3 star rating suggests. Looks like Washington is in the lead for his commitment, will be interesting to see what the ND offer does.
I like the tiers you have broken this into.
It will be interesting to see how Coach Freeman stacks up against teams given the uncertainty/inexperience with game management. My guess is that:
Kelly’s performance would be losses to OSU for certain, 70% to win Clemson, win all other games 90%+ chance.
Freeman’s performance loss to OSU certain, 25% win vs. Clemson, 50% win vs. BYU/USC, 75% win vs. UNC/BC, all others 90%+
This is about where I’m at. I think we lose to OSU and Clemson plus either BYU or USC. I’m thinking 8-4 should be the floor, and 9-3 the ceiling. Even though that’s a narrow range, I’d be surprised if we finished outside it in either direction.
You don’t think if Buchner is playing well we can beat Clemson and beat both of BYU/USC for an 11-1 finish? I would think 11-1 is the ceiling with 8-4 the floor (even if Pyne plays a significant amount of plays due to injury).
I don’t expect the ceiling to happen but that’s partially why it’s the ceiling. I would think most will think a 9-3/10-2 finish are the most likely outcomes which will likely be depending largely on Buchner’s play/health.
Agreed. I could see 9-2 going into the finale @USC to decide if it’s an encouraging season or not.
After looking at the SP+ rankings above, the key and probable turning point to the season is the BYU game. Notre Dame is probably 4-1 going into it, and if they clear that should be set to sail into the Clemson game at 8-1.
Yep, I wish there was a little more intrigue in the middle tier of the schedule, but the big games should all be massive in terms of stakes:
It’s funny that in a year that the ACC has some teams that are really being hyped up as sleepers, the only real quality competition ND drew is Clemson.
Yep, I tweeted about this but if ND had their 2023 ACC rotation that includes Pitt, Wake, and NC State this year, while they are all peaking, it would be insane
That’s roughly where I am too, although I think we’re a good matchup for SC and could be facing some very beat up and exhausted Trojans by the end of the year.
I expect ND to clobber UNC. They suck and are getting worse.
I have a weird feeling about the Cal game — Cal isn’t good and Wilcox’s teams aren’t really known for pulling upsets, but it feels like that could be one of those days where the offense just can’t get anything consistent going and it’s like 17-14 late in the game and then we botch something on special teams or game management. I dunno.
Really enjoying Navy being utter trash.
Cal definitely can ugly stuff up, but they gotta be way better against the run. I’m glad we get them earlier in the year, somehow feels less likely we come out sleepy
That’s a lot of faith in BK + growing pains for Freeman! I’m a little cautious about some of his in-game stuff but I think there’s so many resources there to help him figure things out, I can’t see him struggling that much
God help me I’m starting to talk myself into the Ohio State game being close.
Take a second and watch some of the highlights of Smith-Njigba putting up 300 yards in the bowl game. That’ll get your mind right.
The other team wasn’t really motivated so it doesn’t actually count.
JSN is an absolute monster and top 10 lock but Utah was down to their 4th corner and playing a converted RB in the secondary by the bowl game
True, he’s going to get his and it’s not going to be fun.
The tradeoff has to be Smith-Njigba is “Drake London vs ND in 2021” and not “Devonta Smith vs ND who also has Najee Harris being unstoppable in 2020”. If Notre Dame can keep Henderson and the ground game in check, they will have a chance to keep it close. If everything is working for tOSU offense, no one is going to hang with them.
And that converted RB was their leading tackler because they attacked him so often. And Utah only lost by 3! I’m allowing myself to be optimistic for 5 or 10 minutes this morning, before going back to assuming we lose by at least 2 TDs.
Saw this comment and immediately thought they played an SEC team in the bowl game.
ok yes but this time it’ll be different
Lol – I think we can pull the upset
I’m debating with myself which will be better, the first time we beat Ohio State this season or the second ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I’m usually a pessimist but our o/u at 8.5 seems low. I think maybe 8 or 10 wins are equally likely, but that would seem to indicate that 9 is the right number for an o/u line.
That said, if Styles goes down early, it might be hard to generate enough offense to get to 9 wins.
Notre Dame put 44 points on UNC last year with Coan throwing for 213 yards and 1 TD and Styles+Austin having only three receptions a piece. I don’t see enough talent on the opponents for 4 losses if the quad option running/quick pass game is working + Mayer.
Trying to find Ohio State on the graph…
Great preview!
I’d like to throw out the hot take that Brian Kelly’s ceiling is a rich man’s Cincinnati, very competent but lacking the high end talent to be great. For all the media hype about BK 2.0 after successfully convincing Swarbrick not to fire him after 2016, Kelly basically went into a “good enough” shell and unwilling to really put in the work to get elite players. That all makes it’s extra funny that LSU poached him the same year that Dan Mullen got fired for being a lazy recruiter.
I don’t totally disagree, but it’s a very rich man’s Cincinnati haha. I think the recruiting ceiling with the combination of ND degree of difficulty + BK effort and skill as a recruiter is real. But I think Kelly also knew that he’d need to keep getting better on the recruiting trail post-2016 – remember his comments before the Iowa State bowl game about making changes so he could start landing top-5 classes?
I think Kelly also philosophically was different than Freeman in terms of indexing more on fit and eliminating guys early that Freeman has kept going after. That’s probably a perspective developed after being burned more than a few times investing resources or landing guys that weren’t a fit and dealing with consequences. And maybe if you aren’t as good of a recruiter as a HC that’s the right approach. But I think BK is pretty aware of how important the top classes are, he just doesn’t have the skill set of some other top HCs and expects to be able to CEO it and close the deal as needed.
This does bring up the question on whether any of Marcus Freeman’s recruits end up not enrolling due to academics. I would think he would be fully aware of the hurdles that must be jumped, but I suppose it is possible he has a recruit telling him everything is good when it may not be.
Wofford supporting a decent FCS team may be the equivalent of ND with ~9000 undergraduates supporting a power 5 team. There are 25+ FCS schools that have a larger undergraduate population than ND.
i wouldn’t assume its academics even, some of it just might be pursuing kids from different types of schools or geographies. at the least i think admissions works really closely with the staff and recruits to make sure there’s clarity about eligibility and what it takes to get into ND.
I just saw an article a day or two ago that the lowest GPA of any recruit in this class is 3.25. Nothing is certain, but I think we’re going to be fine on academics.
Kelly’s time at LSU is going to be absolutely fascinating. The dude hates recruiting so much, but I think he’s a pretty darn good coach. Honestly, I’m surprised he never made the jump to the NFL when he allegedly had offers. Maybe he realized NFL QBs wouldn’t let him scream in their faces.
He’s got the #6 ranked recruiting class right now at LSU, including 2 WRs who are higher ranked than pretty much anybody he ever got to come to ND at that position. I think there’s a chance that he ends up competing for SEC West Titles pretty regularly almost right away.
He had the #1 transfer class too. I don’t know if he “hates” it like he’s THAT bad at it or doesn’t do it, just more a player development focus.
And really, for the jokes aside, a talent-rich LSU area and a great staff will do the heavy lifting and it recruits itself and all, that’s the right spot for him. I think if Kelly had jumped to a big SEC program in/around 2010 (UF, Tenn, UGA, A&M, LSU, etc) he probably has a title already.
Notre Dame needs a dogged recruiter nationally and to sell kids more on why it is right for them. Not the greatest fit for Kelly, but if he was such a bad recruiter, how’d he finish ~10th in a normal year despite the very real disadvantages? I don’t think he’s as rotten in the area as he can be painted to be, sometimes. But clearly that’s not a strength of his profile as a coach/administrator, either.
they’ll be fun to watch this year, they should be really good at DL + WR which can win you a lot of games. but there’s QBs to juggle (we’ve seen BK with that stuff before), and some other potential weak spots they tried to bridge via the portal that I think you have to be careful assuming they can shore up enough with new guys, and there are no guaranteed wins in the SECW this year.
That is true, SECW is such a thunderdome, it’s ridiculous. I was listening to a preview podcast and they were talking about the East and it’s like “maybe Kentucky or South Carolina can be the second best team in the division” and then in the West it’s like “pray for Ole Miss and Arkansas, they might be better teams than they were last year but also have a way worse record”.
Kelly isn’t a bad recruiter or really even close to it, and I don’t think he hates it. He’s not an obsessive psycho about it, though, which is a problem when you share a division with Saban.
IMO, Kelly made a calculated decision around 2014 to focus on building 4-star depth rather than reaching for 5-star gamebreakers. I think that decision was specific to ND and there’s no guarantee he’ll repeat it at LSU. As MikeyB points out, so far, it seems like he’s pursuing a different strategy.
That said, I also think Kelly’s approach to offense and QBs in general has some serious flaws that will prevent him from winning an SEC championship, at least as long as Saban is at Bama. It’ll be interesting to watch, that’s for sure.
This has been the first time I’ve heard a reasonable, rational, discussion of Kelly at LSU since he left ND. Some really good points throughout.
well that’s my reasonableness quota for the year
It’s been really weird to see the discourse from both the ND and LSU side. Kelly was great for the ND program. It sucks he left, but could end with the program in an even better place than if he stayed. And nothing he has said isn’t factual, and almost nothing he has said has really been a dig at ND. He made it clear ND didn’t provide the resources that HE personally felt he needed to win a title; those resources are available at LSU. But I don’t think he’s ever said that ND couldn’t win a title under Freeman.
The only things that have irked me a bit about the situation:
1) Just be honest dude; the new salary is at least half the reason you left for LSU. It’s a lot of money! That’s reasonable.
2) He tried to gut the staff when he left. I know, lots of coaches take their guys, but doing it like that, right at a time where the team was still technically alive for the Playoff, was irritating.
I don’t understand why so many ND fans are so bitter with him. And I don’t understand why LSU fans are talking so much smack, like they stole Nick Saban. I didn’t think he would be a good hire for ND, and I was flat out wrong. At the end of the day, he had a nice long tenure at ND. I’m thankful for that, and I’m even more optimistic for ND’s future now that he’s gone.
This is just anecdotal, but the few LSU fans I know in real life are not nearly as confident as the online LSU fans. They think Kelly is a weird hire made by an AD who cares more about making headlines than anything else.
That’s interesting. I actually think LSU is just about the right place for Kelly, due to the ease of recruiting. I’m really looking forward to seeing if he or Jimbo end up actually threatening to win the division on a regular basis, or if Saban won’t even be challenged.
And on the ND side of things, Kelly’s recent press tour annoyed me too, but it was more goofy than anything else. Freeman has slammed basically all of his excuses about recruiting at ND through the mat, so that’s that.
Kelly is a 100% transactional person. That doesn’t bother me, but I do think it bothers a lot of fans and has for a long time, dating all the way back to when he left Cincy for ND.
I think the bitterness comes not from him leaving, but the way he did it. Taking a phone call at a recruits house, leaving before post season was decided, stating a couple weeks earlier about staying at ND unless a fairy godmother came along with bags of money, etc… Time heals all wounds. Maybe the fan base is getting around to the point where he can rationally be discussed now. BK did a lot of good things for ND football.
Agree and good points for the whole comment, but let’s also point out that LSU is right now #6 in the 2023 class, with about 3-4 more heavy hitters widely expected to join them and they’ll finish very strongly.
No one looks good relative to Saban, and I’m certainly not saying I expect Kelly to amass close to the talent/depth of the Alabama roster, just that it could be a really good fit for him in an SEC powerhouse that naturally draws talent and then he gets to put his proven strengths (traits, organization, winning games, etc) on top of it.
And just to further illustrate my point that for a guy who gets rundown on the recruiting front (partially justly so), he is also going to bring a ton of talent into LSU and, IMO, likely win a lot of games. Maybe not all the games, but he should make their program the most stable it’s been since Saban.