Notre Dame was close to blowing out BYU on Saturday evening inside Allegiant Stadium. Yet, the Irish went into halftime leading by only 12 points and dealt with the Cougars trying to complete a wild comeback in the second half. The tide turned very quickly against Notre Dame but credit to the team for showing resilience, shutting down BYU in the 4th quarter, and coming back to seal the victory.
Three straight wins for Marcus Freeman!
Stats Package
| STAT | IRISH | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | 28 | 20 |
| Plays | 73 | 46 |
| Total Yards | 496 | 280 |
| Yards Per Play | 6.79 | 6.08 |
| Conversions | 11/17 | 4/11 |
| Completions | 22 | 9 |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 9.35 | 7.05 |
| Rushes | 45 | 29 |
| Rushing Success | 51.1% | 55.5% |
| 10+ Yds Rushes | 3 | 6 |
| 20+ Yds Passes | 4 | 2 |
| Defense Stuff Rate | 23.9% | 19.7% |
This will be an especially good advanced stats review game from Michael this week as the Irish dominated so many areas of this game but had a handful of important snaps go against them and keep it a manageable situation for BYU to bite back, which they did. Overall, Notre Dame has to be pretty happy with their overall team performance.
Offense
QB: A-
RB: B+
TE: A+
OL: A
WR: B
This offense has some flaws and at times they were very evident against BYU. One big one is red zone offense which I suspect is going to be a season-long issue. You can only utilize power running and Michael Mayer so much down there.
The good news is that Notre Dame’s offense continued to look very competent in running its ball-control style, except Saturday night they showed a superb balance being able to make plays through the air, as well.
Drew Pyne would love to have his inaccurate 3rd down throw on the opening drive back, as well as his tipped-ball interception into double coverage. He also couldn’t muscle a throw to an open Jayden Thomas on 3rd down on the 2nd series.
Otherwise, Pyne put together a really clean performance with only 3 more incompletions (including 2 drops) beyond what I just mentioned above. He was sharp and accurate, didn’t panic, and used time in the pocket to make some plays downfield.
This isn’t all on the offensive line but the poor red zone performance (1 touchdown on 4 opportunities) prevents a stellar grade for that unit. The rushing success rate was good, not great, but Pyne had some of the best pass protection in recent memory (officially zero sacks or hurries by BYU) and the Cougars were limited to just 3 tackles for loss on the night.
Rushing Success
Estime – 8 of 14 (57.1%)
Diggs – 8 of 17 (47.0%)
Tyree – 5 of 11 (45.4%)
Pyne – 1 of 1 (100%)
The failed 4th down run by Estime early in the 2nd quarter really hurt the complexion of this game. If that was a touchdown the Irish would’ve been leading 32-6 after marching down the field to open the 3rd quarter and we’re possibly talking about a true blowout today instead of a nice win.
The pair of long runs both came in the 4th quarter and helped to put the game away. Estime rumbled for 46 yards on a field goal drive to put the lead back to 8 points, then Diggs ran for 33 yards on a key 2nd and 17 to salt things away on the final drive.
You have to love the balance displayed by the offense, well over 200 yards rushing and passing for the second game in a row.
What can you say about Michael Mayer? In the game he breaks the all-time receptions record for an Irish tight end he also sets the single-game record with 11 catches.
For a moment there, it also looked like Jayden Thomas was trying to turn the game from the Michael Mayer Game into the Jayden Thomas Game! The young receiver comes through with 3 catches for 74 yards and one insane touchdown catch. He combined with Lorenzo Styles for 113 receiving yards—more of this please.
Defense
DL: A-
LB: B-
DB: B
There was a whole lot to like for the defense against BYU, but also some frustrating moments and seemingly a lack of consistency that prevented this game from getting ugly for the Mormon-side.
It was mentioned during the broadcast that quarterback Jaren Hall was nursing a shoulder injury and he did not look very comfortable. Notre Dame did a good job of shrinking the pocket and forcing him to make throws with people in his face. Early on especially, Hall really struggled making some basic throws.
BYU had some success running the ball and at times the Irish had problems at the second level containing runs. That led to BYU having 6 runs that went for at least 10 yards with a couple of those going for 20 and 28 yards, respectively.
Stuffs vs. BYU
Kiser – 2.5
Ademilola, Justin – 2.5
Kollie – 1.0
Bracy – 1.0
Bauer – 0.5
Rubio – 0.5
Watts – 0.5
Smith – 0.5
Griffith – 0.5
Liufau – 0.5
NaNa – 0.5
Ademilola, Jayson – 0.5
With a little better run stopping this could’ve been an ugly night for BYU. They also ran just 46 plays which skews the numbers a bit. That is the fewest number of snaps for an Irish opponent that I could find going back to at least 2009.
That’s why after Hall connected with receiver Kody Epps for completions of 18, 27, and 53 yards (latter including a touchdown) BYU ended up with a gaudy 6.08 yards per play which is incredibly deceiving.
Epps would finish with 100 yards on 4 receptions, but all other BYU pass-catchers finished with 5 catches for 20 yards. Notre Dame’s +216 total yards differential is the more accurate measure of what this game felt like. The BYU offense really didn’t do much.
Final Thoughts
This was a big and important win for the first year of Marcus Freeman. The Irish should be heavy favorites in their next 2 games and will be pushing closer to being ranked soon. You can still tell how nervous (not sure this is the right description but I’m going with it) Freeman remains on the sidelines and how much relief comes when they win.
Freshman tight end Eli Raridon continues to play a lot in a blocking role and picked up his first career target on the 2nd down naked bootleg on the 2nd drive that Pyne threw a little too low to complete.
Fellow true freshman tight end Holden Staes also picked up his first career target and it was a beautiful 11-yard catch on 3rd down to keep the drive alive on that insane Thomas touchdown catch.
Speaking of said catch:
That’s one way to do it!
An important moment that I noted in a re-watch was a Michael Mayer 3rd down “drop” on the series flanked by BYU touchdowns in the 3rd quarter. The ball was just a little off target and Mayer couldn’t bring it in. I wonder how things change if that drives continues and Notre Dame puts some points on the board while shutting off some of BYU’s momentum.
Since Pyne wasn’t sacked his only rushing attempt of the game was a crucial 5-yard scamper on 3rd and 4 to keep the final field goal drive alive. Big moment!
Audric Estime was definitely short on that final 3rd down play before Notre Dame kneeled the ball for the win. It was a bit weird that a better camera angle wasn’t available. We’ll take it!
One of my pet-peeves with running backs is lowering their head in anticipation of contact and trying to power through, especially in short yardage situations. This is what happened on Estime’s failed 4th down run early in the 2nd quarter:
Noooo.
Football is a weird sport because you often don’t see criticism of Estime’s decision here. But, vision and using footwork to slightly alter your approach to blocking are so, so important in big plays like this. Simply putting your head down (and Estime lowers his head EVEN MORE on this snap about 0.08 seconds after my screenshot) and hoping for the best isn’t always the best decision.
Let’s hope the Tariq Bracy hamstring injury isn’t too serious.
Bo Bauer, Jack Kiser, and Justin Ademilola really played well for the defense. We also saw the first career sack for linebacker Prince Kollie.
I didn’t even notice until after the game that Howard Cross was held out with an ankle injury. That, plus the late-week transfer decision from Jacob Lacey really left the interior defense in a bind. It does seem like young player Gabriel Rubio is slowly coming along nicely, though.
Notre Dame remains undefeated in Shamrock Series games. #stats
Our writer’s Slack chat during the game was together in the bad decision to go for the 2-point conversion in the 2nd quarter after the Thomas touchdown when the game was 18-6. What say the readers? I would highlight this offense’s weakness of converting in those red zone opportunities, I wouldn’t feel super confident in picking up many 2-point attempts this year.
I chuckle so that I won’t cry but Chris Tyree trips himself up untouched more than any Notre Dame runner since Armando Allen. This dude has left like 150 yards on the table just by falling down in his career.
That underhand throw from Pyne to Estime for a first down was absurd and special:
Wow, gritty and resourceful from Pyne.
I have this thought that Marist Liufau weirdly seeks out blockers when he blitzes. Like, he could blitz and have a clear shot at the quarterback but instead runs to the closest blocker to try and hit them. There was one snap against BYU where Liufau did his normal “crash into a lineman” move only to bounce off and get through the line. He could’ve continued toward the quarterback but then pivoted slightly to hit another lineman, I don’t get it.
This entire game I kept thinking how much better these uniforms would’ve been without the weird shoulder design.
OK, I get it on the unis, and I believe you highlighted that back when they were unveiled. I will only say (bizarrely, I admit) having just finished a relook of some Lord of the Rings scenes as background to update one of my screenplays) that the weird shoulder design is somehow… elvish.
Nice review, as always, and a fun read on a nice Sunday afternoon in Paris.
To business, the red zone issue — per Treehater’s post on the Instant Reaction thread — what indeed about 3rd down play action?
Magnifique. So now, let’s transfer to the bowl game — is there any way we get a shot at The Dark Lord (the evil genius in Tuscaloosa)? In which case, we’ll need elvish against those Bamorcs. So hang on to this!
Disorganized thoughts:
-ND is a very good, even dominant team through the middle quarters. We have got to figure out some way to fix the poor offensive first quarters (this is mostly playcalling, IMO) and late defensive lapses. If we can do that, there are a lot of wins on the table.
-Estime was indeed short. We are going to have to figure out what our plan is in critical short yardage situations. Note to Tommy: It isn’t QB sneak.
-I didn’t like going for 2, but I’ll say this — the learning curve for this team and coaching staff is very steep, and they’re learning quickly. I’m genuinely impressed that Freeman et al. managed this white-knuckler of a game and escaped with a win.
-Speaking of: Thank you Jesus, Mary, and Joseph that Marcus Freeman understands why deferring the opening kick is important. Hugely important, game-changing decision last night.
-We should absolutely annihilate Stanford to the tune of 49-10. That is a terrible, broken team coming to a cold, dark South Bend. No mercy. Let’s see if we can get David Shaw fired.
hoping to get usage out of this
This does seem like a good time for the first blowout in of the HCMF era. I’m not sure I’d say Stanford does anything well enough to be real threatening to the team that played in Vegas last night. We opened as a 17 point favorite on Circa and 14.5 on OddsShark.
Then again, we lost to Marshall, so we’ll see.
What did you see from Bauer that was good? PFF has him down for only playing in 6 snaps (he did have a decent grade for those 6 snaps however).
Liufau graded out pretty bad and was the worst defender who played the most snaps (only Lewis and Mickey graded out worse but they only played 7 and 8 snaps respectively compared to Liafau’s 37 – which is tied for 3rd most on the D in this game). We need the guys that play the most to play the best.
I am worried about Bracy’s hamstring. Hopefully he can be back for Clemson if not Syracuse.
Blake Fisher also (according to PFF) has his best game of the year by a decent margin. After the first 3 games were not very good he seems to be getting comfortable with whatever HH is asking of him.
Cam Hart also had his best game of the year by far, and graded out better than even most of his games from last year. Hopefully that’s a good sign of things to come for him breaking out of his funk.
Interestingly, outside of Fisher, the run blocking from the OL didn’t receive very good grades. I wonder if the RBs made a lot more out it by themselves on a lot of plays. (Though according to PFF Alt is tied for #3 with the best grade for OL right now on the season. If they ranked OL they’d probably have him the best taking into account his athleticism. He’s already living up to the hype of being a future 1st round pick.)
Pyne also had his best game of the year – even a jump over the UNC game. He seems like he might turn out to be a pretty decent QB – maybe Book-lite. And given the situation, we’ll surely take it! Consistency will be key for him and limiting TO’s but he can make some plays now that he’s settled down into the starting gig.
Where was Bertrand on that? Every time I watched him play – with one very important exception, the 4th down stop – he looked real bad. I’m hoping Kollie can take more of his reps going forward. Seems like things generally got worse when Bertrand came in – hopefully Al Golden notices.
Kiser looked great, though.
Kiser graded out as our best defender last night for sure – probably driven by his elite pass rushing grade on a couple of those snaps.
Bertrand graded out better than Marist but that’s not saying much and it wasn’t a good grade. But it’s about the grade he’s been averaging this year and last year (56-58ish – where 70 is about the grade that starts to become “good” and 90 is “elite”).
To give some context out of the 141 teams and all the LBs that have played at least 20% of the most snaps someone has (481), Betrand has the 275th best grade in the country (though Marist is 254). Kiser is tied for 74th.
One does have to remember this isn’t like a ranking of best players because grades are just a measure of how well you’ve played in whatever you are being asked to do against whoever you happen to be up against. That’s why PFF then ranks draft players differently – because then they take into account athleticism, level of competition, and potential too – not just how well they graded out against their level of competition. (That’s how I understand it anyway.)
Kollie graded out around 67ish on his 8 snaps about the same as UNC with his 10 snaps. So small sample size of course but should be reason to start increasing his work-load esp. against Standard and UNLV.
Also, I did notice Estime putting his head down on that play. It seemed if he had it up, he could easily have sidestepped the pile and picked up the first down. Hopefully that’ll be the coaching point this week. But he seems to put his head down a lot – that can’t be safe either.
Two thoughts:
(1) Said this in the plebe Slack, but: Mayer ended the “who is the greatest ND tight end of the last 50 years” debate today, right? If he ends up 1st or 2nd team AA this year, where does he go on Eric’s pyramid?
(2) I may have to eat some major crow on Pyne. Some of those passes were legit good! In particular, he threw a dart 15 yards over the middle to Thomas on a crucial down. Still have the sneaking suspicion he’ll lay a massive egg in some game, but hoping it’s like a UNLV game that we still squeak out instead of USC.
(1) Greatest accomplishment maybe, but I guess I still think Eifert was more athletic and more of a big-play threat.
(2) To be fair, this does kind of seem to come out of nowhere. Or at least him settling down has kind of transformed his game. But yes, he’s actually making some plays (that is, these plays are being made because of Pyne). I didn’t think that would be too regular of a thing.
I can’t remember if we did an update with a tight end (Kmet?) added but this was the original list of tight ends:
183) Fasano
165) Rudolph
161) Carlson
143) Derek Brown
124) Mark Bavaro
106) Dave Casper
80) Tony Hunter
64) Tyler Eifert
15) Ken MacAfee
Mayer is easily 3rd right now. Maaaybe edging ahead of Eifert.
Whoops, real bad mental math on my part – best TE in the last *40* years – i.e., post the 77 title.
But, I don’t know, I tend to think Mayer has already surpassed Eifert. Eifert probably a bigger downfield (and to some degree red zone) threat, sure, but Mayer is more consistent in all other aspects of the game. But, it’s hair-splitting and they both rule.
Mayer may be the most important to his teams passing game on this list. He is option #1 for sure in this offense and by a wide margin. MacAfee was a favorite of Montana but not his only real receiving threat IIRC. All the others played with better WRs than Mayer too.
I think MacAfee’s percentages (receptions, yards) from 1977 are a touch better right now than 2022 Mayer, but even if it’s close that’s in Mayer’s favor because his overall career has been better I’d argue.
Really ?
MacAfee was a three-time All-American at the University of Notre Dame—a First-team selection in 1975 and a consensus selection in 1976 and 1977. MacAfee was elected to the College Football Hall of Fame in 1997.
In 1977, he also was Academic All-America, won the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award and was third in voting for the Heisman Trophy. That year, he caught 54 passes for 797 yards and six touchdowns. In his time Notre Dame had a 38-9 record and was the National Champion in 1977, with Joe Montana quarterbacking the Irish team. In his collegiate career, he caught 128 career passes for 1,759 yards and 15 TDs, ranking third on Notre Dame career receiving chart. He was a participant in Hula Bowl and Japan Bowl after his senior season.
Surely more receptions but,
1st team All American 75′. Consensus AA 76’&77′. Walter Camp player of the year 77′. #3 in the Heisman 77′. Lead the Irish in receptions 75, 76, 77. CFB HoF. ND National Champs 77′. #7 pick in the draft.
They throw the ball more now but, I don’t think you can do better than that.
Speaking of Meyer and Pyne, I’m a little worried for next year. Pyne does not seem to have much touch inside of 10 yards. Maybe as a shorter guy he tries to zip passes in?
My point being that Meyer’s hand’s bail out Pyne often in my opinion. Like on the two point conversion that Meyer somehow almost pulled in, I hope next year’s TE have great hands too, or else Pyne learns to take a little off the short throws.
Oh yeah, another point I made in the plebe chat after somebody suggested Pyne will probably go into next year as the starter: maybe let’s see what this offense looks like in the bowl game without Mayer before we start assuming that. Pyne looked shockingly (to me at least) good yesterday, and yes Tyree dropped a screen that would have gone for 30+ yards, but also Mayer and (on the TD catch) Thomas bailed out some not-particularly-good throws in important moments.
That said, A- for yesterday feels like a fair grade. It was good!
Also Manti Te’o should replace Jason Garrett.
Manti becoming a fixture in the program again is very cool imo
I have no idea how the rest of you are going to make it through the season listening to that booth for seven games. I honestly wouldn’t swear that Collinsworth understands what the line of scrimmage is. He made multiple comments about negative runs “took the ball and went a couple yards” and repeatedly referred to tackles in the realm of the 4 and 5 yard line within a yard of the LOS as being “at the goal line”.
Garrett has his cliché box, the worst of which came out three first downs in a row with negative plays where he would say “They need to get half of it back here to set up a third down.” Which is a waste of words anyway and adds no value, but it’s also not what he meant in the situation. A loss of six on first down getting half of it back is a gain of three. He wants to “add value” by saying it would be good to get eight yards there to set up a third and eight, but it’s not what the words he’s saying mean.
I got distracted from the Nebraska Rutgers game Friday night watching a high school game and it’s a perfect equivalent broadcast with the Irish on national television. NBC is just awful.
Collinsworth sounds like if I was announcing cricket. I can recognize the ball and sort of what the players are trying to do, but I have no idea what the rules are or what the various markings on the field mean.
Garrett is so fucking just Cpt. Obvious coupled with nonsense that it has actually annoyed the shit out of me at times this year
At least Garrett has stopped saying the word “naked” after the first game, that’s a big improvement.
Wasn’t he on the ND football team? I think he knows the rules, at least.
That was Austin – not Jac.
There ya go. Maybe Jac is just an idiot, then.
I muted it after about two series but to be fair I mute almost all football commentary
Lil Cworth is making me want to join a conference to get out of this NBC deal. 30 years of conference realignment, skyrocketing payouts to bottom feeders, and limited bowl options didnt do it. But he did.
haha yea, he had another line about an ND RB making a run for no gain (when it was in fact like 3 or 4 yards). It’s like – what game are you watching?
I agree completely. I know NBC really doesn’t care that much about ND so I try not to get too worked up about the booth, but Garrett and Collinsworth are bad. Beyond the ineptitude of what they are saying, I just find them both very weird and they make me uncomfortable watching the game.
I’ve disliked other crews and got annoyed watching them seemingly root against ND or get excited when ND is losing or giving up big plays and I would occasionally mute them then. But this is the first time where I’ve now watched multiple games with the game on mute because the crew just weirds me out.
At 18-6, going for 2 is the right call to get back on track to 20-6, 2 possessions.
19-6 is useless if they score 2 tds, (which they did), and if we don’t.
The only scenario where not converting hurts is if they score 1 td and 2 fgs to go up 19-18, highly unlikely (BYU more likely to score tds than kick fgs and use 3 possesions), and we don’t.
Failing to convert is not a big deal, but a successful conversion is.
As they say in finance, it’s a free option, in this particular scenario
Not the right call. I disagree with your “only scenario” above, because there was another scenario THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED in which we were up 8 and not 9 in the fourth quarter, ie the difference between 1 and 2 scores.
And even if we got the conversion we would have been up 10 instead of 9, which is worthless unless BYU manages to miss two extra points in the game (unlikely).
Take the points in the first half. Always. Too many crazy things can happen.
So how would the failed conversion have hurt us? In this game? At 18-6?
BYU had a chance to tie the game at the end?
Am I missing something here??
19-19? Only if they score 1td and 2fgs, right? 3 possessions. Wouldn’t they have been more likely to take 2 possesions to score 2tds, which they did, to make it 20-19?
Or are you saying 28-26 and they go for 2?
Uhhh the final score was 28-20, so if they scored a TD they could have sent it to OT.
Exactly. My point was to always take the points in the first half. Can someone help me out remembering the game Brian Kelly tried for two in the first half and it bit us in the second.
We’re not talking about conversions willy-nilly.
I’m saying the 2pt conversion at 18-6 to make it a 2 possession game makes sense.
So far all I’m getting is IF they score again AND convert they tie.
If we’d have just kicked the PAT, then they wouldn’t have been able to tie it in their last possession at the end there.
I said “kick it” at the time and when ahead by 8 at the end thought, “I told you”. The 2nd qtr. is too early to be chasing points. At that point whatever scenario you come up with, it is unlikely to play out that way.
18-6 is already a two possession game. In the 2nd qtr. it’s unlikely that either team is done scoring. Take the easy point.
It would’ve made sense if there were limited possessions remaining, let’s say 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
Otherwise, chasing a point that early in the game when this offense is probably around 30% likely to convert versus 95% for kicking doesn’t make a lot of situational sense.
Northwestern?
Never forgive and never forget Northwestern 2014, where Kelly went for 2 in the 4th Q up 11, where the difference between being up 12 vs. 11 is *WAY* more important than being up 13 vs. 12. I still think it’s the single worst coaching decision of his tenure, because there was truly no defense of it. At least BVG had been a successful assistant coach once.
But, I think fightin might be referring to Clemson 2015, where we chased points a little too early but it at least was an intellectually justifiable decision.
I was at that Northwestern game. Very high on the physical misery scale as well — it snowed heavily the night before, melted, and then refroze. So your feet were on ice the entire game.
The 2018 game in Evanston was considerably more fun.
Tulsa, clemson 2015?
Clemson 2015 – definitely went for 2 early, don’t remember if it was 2Q or 3Q, but fCBK caught a lot of shit on here for doing so (I’m sure he read weekly and was distraught). I thought in the circumstances – tropical storm, freshman kicker (J. Yoon), hostile environment on the road in a night game – going for 2 wasn’t a terrible choice. But, then again, ND lost by 2 after missing a 2nd 2 point conversion. Knowing what we know now about Yoon, I think we’d all advocate for the kicks, even given the rain, but in the moment, it wasn’t a terrible call.
The decision was defensible – I don’t recall if I agreed with it or not at the time. The second play call, Kizer just trying to go off tackle, was not my favorite.
Wise old man Eric had this to write in the OFD recap of said 2 point conversion (It was very early in the 4th Q, so I misremembered) – even referencing the NW 2 point try also currently being remembered:
Sadly, doesn’t appear that the OFD comments are archived that far back, so we can’t go back and see what your thoughts were 7 years ago.
I’m not upset about the decision because I think 1 point and 2 point PATs have approximately the same expected points in games between relatively equal teams and it’s a situation where the additional point is helpful, but the reason for typically taking the point early in the game is that a lot of things can still happen and you can delay high-risk decisions until you have more information.
It’s the same reason that deferring to the second half is the right decision. You get to make more decisions with possession when you have more information.
Aggressive decision, fine decision, but you don’t have to make an aggressive decision there.
Agreed, well put. To add: in the context of the game, the ND offense just put up three consecutive 10 play drives on the BYU defense. They were moving the ball on them, had momentum and valid reason to feel confident about picking up a few yards on the try based on how things were going. I usually don’t like chasing points in the first half, but this time I didn’t mind the decision even though it didn’t work.
—
One thing I DIDN’T like was going for it on 4th and 1 in the second quarter while up 10-6. I would have rather taken the three free points and go up 13-6. Granted, it worked out perfect to play field position, but you’re not going to get a safety everytime. With this defense, they just as well might give up a 20+ yard run when having the other team pinned back (ha).
To me, it felt like Freeman getting a little reckless and going for it on 4th down close to the goal line very soon after BYU did the same thing. I can get and respect Freeman wanting to match the bold calls, but it was a risk as a team already in the lead that I didn’t like the risk/reward on at that point of the game.
Just felt like to me Freeman was gambling just to gamble. All is well that ends well, but on the philosophy I didn’t like that one as much.
I think Freeman was trying to get the killshot as early as possible. I don’t mind that approach in theory, but high-risk decisions don’t really match what this team is best at, which is slowly grinding opponents into dust, controlling the ball, and killing the clock. That’s classic overdog strategy, whereas high-risk stuff is underdog strategy.
How could BYU have zero hurries? Official scorer needs to take a look at the play where Pyne had to flip the ball underhand to Estime. I thought he was going to be sacked for sure before making that insanely impressive toss.
Seems like if they aren’t pressured right away they don’t bother marking it down.
I thought that was weird too. Pyne took a bunch of shots last night and they were peeling him off the ground after he threw it quite a bit.
“You can still tell how nervous (not sure this is the right description but I’m going with it) Freeman remains on the sidelines and how much relief comes when they win.”
I can relate.
Now, all the screw ups end up on his plate. His desk is where the buck stops. The look I see on his face often is “are you kidding me? “. It’ll take some getting used to for him.
O Line is a work in progress. They did not get the push, especially from the interior, that resulted in short yardage situations and red zone conversions. Blake Fisher needs to get more fire in his belly. Most have figured out that we run to the left when we really need the yardage and, on one play, the BYU DE crashed from the right for a loss. He shouldn’t need a blocking TE to assist, but maybe that’s the way to go for now. With BYU playing a 3-4 and not blitzing a lot, I imagine the OL’s pass blocking grades were better than expected. Our five did control their three in those situations so Pyne had the time to look for the intermediate or deep ball. Crossing routes were open but he does not take the high percentage check downs which would increase the WRs YACs. That will be important when we face a team whose DL and front seven is more aggressive and has been penetration. One common opponent to BYU and to Stanford is Oregon. It would be interesting to see how their OL graded out against each in comparison. But then Bo Nix is more elusive and I can only imagine our offense with Troy Franklin – or without Mayer.
Here is an article from 538 about when to go for 2. This is NFL, but the general principles still apply. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/
Here is one about college. https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-10-11/art-2-point-conversion-when-and-why-go-it
Stew Mandel yesterday:
“It’s never been harder for a first-year coach to take over a new program due to early signing day and portal turnover. At the same time, a bad first impression has never been harder for a new coach to overcome.
Unfortunately for new Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, his debut has devolved in a perfect storm of calamity.”
I’ve kept on the OU/ND parallels before, but considering Freeman started 0-3, in retrospect it might be amazing that he’s managed to somehow steer the car away from the ditch.
Dominating UNC (who have looked good since, fwiw) and also basically controlling a good BYU team isn’t waking up the echoes after the Marshall loss, but it’s something positive to build on. And isn’t always guaranteed!
https://theathletic.com/3672069/2022/10/09/mandels-final-thoughts-college-football/
I agree. It looks like we are returning to form that we have come to expect. If we at least win the rest of the games we are “expected” to win, this will turn out to be a good year for Freeman for sure. If we happen to go 9-3 or even 10-2, it’ll be an unbelievably good year.
It seems like we are in line for Love and hopefully with Oklahoma imploding (and if we continue having a good year) we’ll hold on to P. Bowen. In that case, year 1 for Freeman would clearly be in the W column and a step towards gaining ground on the elite programs.
The KU turnaround has been remarkable in Leipold’s second year. While UCLA has declared itself Transfer U, Kansas is at least second place also using the Transfer Portal. Twenty-two of the forty-four on their two deep are transfers. Eight are starters with all but two of those Senior or Graduate transfers. Only four of the fourteen in the second string are Seniors. Five of the twenty-two are from Power 5. The rest are from the G5 and a few from Community Colleges. With seven of their front seven graduating last year, Leipold rebuilt it with transfers – three of the starting DLs and two of starting the LBs are transfers. All three of the transfers starting on Offense are Offensive Linemen. He took a number of his assistant coaches from Buffalo. Five of their twenty-two transfers are from Buffalo. The KU community has waited a long time for success and is a very supporting and accepting. Just some thoughts.
Transfers are just such an easy way to help your program and ND is really behind the 8-ball on this one with our limited ability to take transfers.
It really just forces us to be significantly better than the other schools we want to compete against recruiting high schoolers at every position and there’s just no room for error.
This is not a recipe for sustained elite success.
Valid points. I don’t think you need Marcus Freeman wearing “transfer to the Bend” hoodies on the sidelines or to go full Kansas, but surely as times morph and changes it would be nice to see Notre Dame try to keep up. Same with NIL in many respects.
Yea we don’t need 20 transfers (and neither will Kansas after having done that once). But to get 2 or 3 a year to fill in gaps from recruiting is huge. Think of all the decent teams we’ve had that if you could add 2 or 3 key players (maybe 1 or 2 starters + 1 or 2 backups who play a decent amount of snaps) in those years how that would have helped those teams.
And to add them as undergrads means likely that you’d have that extra starter for at least 2 years. That starts to add up over the years (the number of starts you’d get from transfers but currently are not).
Not for everyone that’s for sure. Some programs can attain success through the Transfer Portal and certainly not the road for everyone or coaches. Weis went to Kansas and utilized transfers and failed. a school that cannot complete whether it is not in a recruiting hotspot or like UCLA in fertile recruiting territory has been a second, third choice or not even in top five and cannot fill a class.
IMO the secret sauce would include:
KU has been on the low list even for locals including Kansas City. ND has two recruits from Kansas (Edwards and Otting) in our 2023 class. We are pushing for Avery Johnson from the Wichita area – current K-State commit – as the QB in our class but most go to K-State, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri and a few to Texas and occasionally ND. Those are all programs that can survive without transfers. I believe Mississippi State, K-State and NC State in addition to UCLA and Kansas and others have utilized the Transfer Portal to their benefit. I imagine as he develops players, Leipold may decrease his use of the Portal.
Forgive the inclusion of the second bullet point, which I forget to eliminate when I moved it to the initial paragraph. The five schools mentioned above as using transfers was limited to Top 25 schools. Also, K-State has found success with Adrian Martinez from Nebraska. While he is graduating, they have a backup within the program (a Junior), so Avery Johnson was probably attracted to that situation. Our staff visited with him over the bye week and he has visited ND a couple of times, I believe.
Add TCU to the five above in the top 25 making liberal use of the Transfer Portal. Ten of their starters and seven of their second string transferred from other programs.
Another note – Graham Mertz is from the KC area and may well leave Wisconsin to finish up elsewhere. He may be losing his wide receivers and has a new coaching staff next year. Wisconsin’s second string QB has entered the Transfer Portal. Will Mertz consider finishing up at a school near his hometown? Daniels will be back at KU with all starting his wide receivers and running back. Or will Mertz choose someplace similar to ND that usually develops from their recruiting classes?
More on Venables from Bill Connelly, of SP+ renown:
“It’s difficult to underachieve against the spread for a particular period of time because the books adjust… Sometimes, however a collapse comes so swiftly that it takes a while to find equilibrium… Which brings us to Oklahoma.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a once-ranked team, last 30 years:
… If we focus specifically on teams that collapse in their head coach’s first seasons, things get much, much darker.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a first-year coach, last 30 years:
The five names surrounding Venables’s are five of the least successful hires college football has seen in that time span. Those coaches went a combined 38-170… Those five poor individuals were taking on some of the hardest jobs in the country, and while they performed terribly, the floor in Norman… is quite a bit higher.
Still, inclusion on this list should ring serious alarm bells. There are really no examples of a team collapsing like this and recovering in a short amount of time.”
Hate to see it… Recruiting crossover – hopefully someone made sure that one way or another this article got to Peyton Bowen.
Great stuff, thanks for the writeup of all that info Brendan. The similar situations of ND and OU getting left by their coaches after getting to the playoffs (but it going poorly once they get there) and then turning to first time coaches is just too much for me not to go back to time and again. Will be interesting to see how long it takes each program to get back to where they were, and beyond to where they want to go.
How many guys left OU with Riley when he executed the Kiffin Gambit to USC? And what was the average Star rating of the talent that left?
Answer (after a cursory look) – They lost 13 players after Riley announced his move. That includes 1 5-Star, 8 4-stars, 4 3-star and below.
Blu Chips went this way:
Replacement value was 11 incoming transfers, 3x 4-star and 8x 3-star
So, Venables lost almost 25% of the team (20 departures total) to transfer or the draft. The 11 incoming that had 3 4-stars.
Venables is in a horrifically worse situation. Does that mean he will be ale to right the ship, I don’t know. But the situations at ND and OU are not comparable.
Beyond the superficial similarity – that the new coaches got their 1st HC jobs where the previous HC left the program swinging in the breeze – nothing else really matches up..
I actually think that if Savvy Jack had done a full bore search, we would be seeing the same results. 3-2 with 2 losses and an upward trajectory feels good right now. I don’t think the picture would have been as nice if we had waited to try to get Fickell.
You could say Oklahoma is in a horrible situation now at this point, however they were ranked #9 in the preseason, it has been an unexpected development for them to be exposed as such a steep rebuilding job. Which would be another feather for the cap of the two teams being similar for coming into the year ranked in the top 10 and expectation for more or less a smooth transition from the past regimes in place as well.
I still would say both are comparable, but also allowing that it is not exactly carbon copies of one another as well.
11 players announced a move out of Notre Dame when Freeman got hired, so I wouldn’t paint it as such a drastic difference for 13 leaving OU in their transition. It’s probably healthy for 10-12 transfers into the portal in this day and age anyways for a big time program.
Some of OU’s transfers (namely Rattler) were bound to happen anyways, he might as well be Brendon Clark with a higher HS recruiting rating and 2 functioning knees in terms of a QB that wasn’t going to play ending up moving on.
There are obviously differences, and big ones, since Caleb Williams is not a comparable situation to Notre Dame. Only Williams and 2 other players followed Riley to USC, so it’s not as if he directly took all the talent out the door. If like six starters all went to LA, the point would be more clear that Oklahoma got drained and were left bare. That really wasn’t the case though, they were still expected to be a top team this year by pollsters, fans and I’m sure Venables as well.
I think a little bit of a deeper look into the transfers is warranted, using 247’s transfer portal tracker as a reference (https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma/Season/2022-Football/TransferPortalPositionRanking/?institutionkey=24026).
In the other direction, they picked up starters in QB Dillon Gabriel from UCF, OT McKade Mettauer from Cal, and DT Jeffery Johnson from Tulane, as well as a couple of contributing reserves in S Trey Morrison from North Carolina and DE Jonah La’ulu from Hawaii.
Before getting hurt against TCU Gabriel was doing really well – he came into that game with a 67% completion rate, 9.3 yards per attempt, and 11 TDs against 0 INTs, plus a respectable 126 yards on 23 carries (sacks included) and 2 TDs on the ground. I don’t know how much better Caleb Williams would have done, but it’s not like Gabriel was so terrible that better offense would’ve won those games for them.
Their defense, which wasn’t hit nearly as hard by transfers and which is supposed to be Venables’s bailiwick, gave up 41 points to Kansas State, 55 to TCU, and 49 to Texas. They have some big time issues to sort out.
That’s a better dive into the talent changes than I could have done, thanks for that.
I just tend to notice that Oklahoma and Notre Dame tend to pop up similarly if one pays attention enough. It’s too dismissive to shrug it all off as superficial similarities when there are so many of similarities in the first place.
For instance, according to Phil Steele, they both have played some of the toughest schedules so far (I suppose Steele’s model must think highly of UNC..)
https://twitter.com/philsteele042/status/1580244639637905408
For what it’s worth – the three-game spread variations for Freeman:
They’re trending in opposite directions.
So what do you take away from this?
That the schedule is getting easier or that ND is getting better or both? Or something else?
Hooks original post quoting Mandel’s criteria was:
Early signing day began in 2017, eliminating almost all of the above teams and making Venables and Oklahoma first in both categories. FWIW, Oklahoma’s 2022 class was twenty-two recruits and thirteen transfers. Their transfer ranking was 3rd. 2023’s so far is twenty-two commits. I’d add NIL to the criteria above in today’s college football as a program like USC may be more attractive ($). Lincoln Riley may well have known that. For Oklahoma, with lower expectations going forward,, they may overachieve relative to the spreads.