I’m just here so I don’t get fined. I’m on the record as stating losses are more interesting to write about because there are more hot topics to cover. That old adage went out the window at least a month ago. I don’t really want to keep writing these reviews anymore (just one more to go after this, thankfully!) so my deepest appreciation to anyone still left reading this right now.
Another Tease
I’m sure you’ve seen all the stats that have been thrown around. Notre Dame has had about 94 double-digit leads this year. Even though the Irish are 4-7 we’ve somehow lost 28 games this year by one score. Brian Kelly has been practically unbeatable when not turning the ball over and out-rushing an opponent–ha, losses are coming now even with those factors in hand.
Once again, Notre Dame came out of the gate and looked…good? They looked like a team ready to glide past a pretty good ACC team on Senior Day. Virginia Tech had 8 yards of offense in the first quarter, on the flip side, Notre Dame had 199 yards and a 17-0 lead.
Of course it wouldn’t last.
Crack in the Armor
It wasn’t just the 1st quarter, though. Notre Dame had a comfortable 24-7 lead with 6 minutes left in the 2nd quarter as Virginia Tech took possession of the ball. Miles Boykin had just scored his first career touchdown, dare I say things were going quite swimmingly in this terrible season.
On the next series the Hokies got stuffed for 3 yards on first down and lost 4 yards on a fumbled snap on second down. Prior to this 3rd down approaching halftime Virginia Tech had 74 total yards and 7 points to their name.
It’s 3rd & 11 and all of a sudden the senior captain linebacker has a big sack lined up!
Nothing can be taken for granted with this team but forcing a punt in this spot probably leads to a win for Notre Dame. Is that too strong of a statement? Instead, Evans scampers for 11 yards to move the chains, Notre Dame later picks up an offside and roughing the passer penalties, as the Hokies made it a 10-point game while getting dominated for most of the first half.
I’m also going to MMQB the heck out of Notre Dame’s next series where they punted from their own 49-yard line on 4th & 1 with 25 seconds left in the half. Earlier in the day Michigan State went for a 2-point conversion with 4 minutes left to take a 1-point lead over Ohio State. They didn’t get it but they’ve lost so many games who cares if you tried to go for the jugular? I would’ve tried to pick up a yard and at least get a field goal with the Hokies getting the ball to start the 3rd quarter.
Kizer vs. Evans 2nd Half
I wouldn’t say the Irish defense played terribly. Virginia Tech had 419 yards, 5.5 YPP, and the Hokies running backs (23 carries, 86 yards, 3.7 per rush) weren’t much of a factor. For what its worth, Notre Dame’s S&P+ defense fell 3 spots to No. 33 overall. However, the end game stats don’t tell the whole story.
This game had the feeling of had it gone on another 2 quarters Virginia Tech was going to win quite comfortably.
In the first half, Tech quarterback Jerod Evans was 8 of 12 for a harmless 73 yards. Whether it was the confines of Notre Dame Stadium, the gusty weather, or straight nerves, Evans was held at bay. Unfortunately, the second half was a different story.
DeShone Kizer let the rocket go today🚀🚀 #BRxND pic.twitter.com/tRGi0JfHch
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) November 20, 2016
Evans exploded in the final 2 quarters going 15 of 19 for 215 yards, largely living off a bunch of short passes that were easily completed and delivered quickly. He threw an interception but that shouldn’t have been dropped and would’ve added 61 yards and an additional touchdown to his totals. What’s more, Evans matched Kizer in the run game for the entire game.
The biggest difference is that Kizer went 3 of 15 for 36 yards throwing the ball in the second half. Do we need to talk about anything else? Notre Dame built a big lead and then didn’t score on 7 of its final 8 possessions.
Why are We Bad?
In short, we aren’t bad. Well, we’re bad at not being able to win football games. Losing 7 games (and likely 8 when it’s all said and done) certainly qualifies you for “bad” status. Clearly the team isn’t winning enough to its talent level, either.
But the team isn’t really bad.
That’s what makes this season so frustrating, right? This game against Virginia Tech finished +30 total yards, +48 rushing yards, +0.9 YPP, +2 turnovers all in favor of Notre Dame and they lost. It’s truly amazing. This was even a relatively clean game for the Irish where false starts were the biggest sign of poor focus.
It’s going to be so difficult to explain this season to my future children someday.
Thanks for Playing
On the second-to-last snap of the game Kizer rushed for 7 yards to pick up a 4th down conversion. Not an ideal scenario given the situation but you have to take the first down anyway.
What was interesting was that Kizer took another big hit (very close to targeting) and had to leave the game. There were 14 seconds left and Notre Dame had no timeouts left.
Now, Kelly did say after the game that they should’ve done a better job alerting Malik Zaire to the fact that the clock would start (great job, guys!) once the ball was re-set after Kizer was cleared from the field. All true I suppose, but Zaire proceeded to wait 6 seconds after taking the snap to throw a 14-yard pass at the feet of St. Brown who couldn’t get out of bounds.
With that play it was highly unlikely they could’ve spiked the ball on second down to set up a game-tying field goal even if Zaire snapped the ball immediately on first down.
Also, special shout out to the officials in this game.
When we’re losing all these one-score games we can’t afford to get screwed out of 30 yards of penalties.
Thanks for coming out, refs.
Eric,
I for one am very grateful that you have summoned the courage to put your excellent analytical mind and excellent Irish supporter perspective to good use once again for our benefit.
After this latest agony, I have been eagerly waiting your review in order to pose a fundamental question to the board — which you beat me to:
— Namely, seriously, why are we bad? Or perhaps to put it another way, why have we not been able to close out so many games? Not being able to close out is a serious flaw generically speaking, and I have never seen a team more guilty of it. And the question is critically important, because its answer ought to tell us a lot about the doubts swirling around Brian Kelly’s stewardship — and one to which 18 Stripes with your unique blend of intelligent members and smart football minds ought to be able to suggest serious possible causes.
Concerning this latest meltdown, BK said he would have to look at the film, because he could not put his finger on any one factor. And looking at yours above, one missed sack against a very mobile QB, which did seem to open a hole in the dike, does not seem to fit into any of the ritual NDN whines about “soft” players and “out of touch” coaches, too little discipline or too much, poor conditioning or over conditioning, etc.
So should we not have a genuine effort to somehow, someway identify common causal threads in this (to use the coach’s own word) nightmare of a season? I think it would be useful as we push forward (given that BK will not be fired and is too proud to quit).
Allez, les Irlandais!
@We’re bad because we don’t have Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, or John Gruden as our coach, end of story.@
(Did I miss any of their usual desired HCs? I would have put Saban too, but not even they could be so stupid to think we’d have a snowflake’s chance in Bangkok of hiring him away.)
On a positive note, basketball season really starts tonight, so we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.
big hitter, the Lama
Do you really have to explain this season to your future children? ND lore is littered with this type of footnote seasons from long before my time. I honestly have no need to explore them or know more about them. The future is scary enough. Don’t frighten them more with the past. 🙂
Good write up. Thanks for the sanity. It should be an interesting offseason. We’re all going to need our 18S therapy sessions.
More Noise, regarding your question about the trouble closing out games in the BK era, I can think of a couple factors that have played a large role, especially in the last three seasons and these factors have been a constant in not only blown losses, but close wins and clear losses, as well.
One is obviously defense. When you get a lead, the most sure way to maintain it is to keep the opponents from scoring quickly. I promise I’m not writing something that obvious in an effort to be condescending. It seems this program over the last few years has had some of its biggest defensive mishaps when leading. That seems to be when the miscues and missed tackles come with the greatest frequency. Mind boggling, really, but this has never been a system or a group prone to strong fundamentals and keeping things in front of them.
That leads to giving up big plays or sometimes worse – failing to get off the field after third downs in a fashion that can demoralize a defense and render them less effective for the remainder of the game.
The other is special teams. We’ve had two games that I can think of this season turn this season on freakish bounces on punt returns that turned into fumbles. There may have been more, but two come immediately to mind. Those are the types of plays that not only directly affect immediate scoring, but also commonly change momentum. You have a team down. They are punting, which has a psychological effect of its own. Suddenly they have new life and new hope. They take advantage and score quickly. Sometimes that sudden swing is just too hard to get back.
There will be plenty of talk this offseason about playcalling, culture, conditioning, talent, depth, etc. All have failed at times this year to protect leads. But those two common thorns that have stood out over the past few seasons really came back to haunt this year in a season when the offense simply wasn’t experienced or good enough to overcome.
Well employing BVG for 2.3 seasons has a tendency to do that.
Clearly, more correlation than coincidence, too.
Hey, FasterThanQuick,
Those are the kinds of thoughts I was seeking to elicit.
On the defense, it strikes me that you have a monster point. If we consider that BVG turned out to be a very bad hire, with negative effects across the board, from some aspects of recruiting to poor use of personnel to scheme to lack of attention to fundamentals because of the need to spend too much time on the afore-mentioned scheme, then could we not say that though some progress has been made post-BVG there are still lingering effects – especially when other bad things happen, like the punt issues.
Hence the new DC hire will be very big, as will the consequent reshuffling of the staff.
And the same is true of a special teams coaching hire or reshuffle.
Lou Holtz used to say, when you go on the road you’d better pack your defense and your kicking game… maybe that could be broadened to say if you want to close out games, you’d better bring the same.
What will be interesting is if BK can go all in on fixing those two areas.
Lou’s quote rings true, here, as does your point. They’ve both failed at crucial times during a lot of close losses this year.
Another bit of BVG fallout is that Kelly has gone from mostly leaving the defense to the DC to now spending a fair bit of time working on that side of the ball (I know he was after dumping BVG, and doubt that he’s back to normal yet). So the HC has mid-season changed his approach to the whole team, dividing his attention in new ways. That can’t be helping.
The officiating was absolutely appalling. There were two targeting hits on Kizer by the same guy that were uncalled on the field and not reviewed by the booth. Unconscionable. The PI against Luke is up there as one of the worst calls I have ever seen in any sport, at any level. Flawless coverage, inside route to the ball, arm and head pulled back by the receiver, and Luke gets flagged? Seriously? That’s bad to the point where you wonder if it’s intentional.
We have our own problems, certainly. I never felt like the halftime lead was safe, and definitely when Tech scored before the half I had a bad feeling. But damn, this stuff does not freaking help. Against Navy, guys get held out in space and blocked in the back on third down with no call, field refs think the player got off in time on fourth and the booth (incorrectly) reviews and overturns it. All critical calls. In this game, critical calls go against us. Maybe it’s magnified by us making games closer than they need to be, but the refs have been crap all season starting with the non-targeting of Hunter by Texas and it’s not helping.
Brendan,
Even from across the ocean, one could see all of that. Makes me wonder if we can work out a better arrangement on refs. You can take it as gospel that ACC refs do not have any special reason to do us any favors…
I know it’s probably a pipe dream, and it’s been beaten to death, but the NCAA really, really needs to step up and do something about the officiating. Imagine if it was like this in the NFL – “well, the Bucs are heading to San Diego this week, and you know the AFC West officials tend to be freer with PI calls while the Bucs are used to the NFC South officials’ looser interpretation of holding, so they’ll have to adjust.” I mean, it’s just stupid.
It’s not going to happen because everybody’s making plenty of money as is, and the conferences are too self-contained to feel that national refs are in their best interests. But one can hope.
I had that same thought about NFL vs. college refs. This wouldn’t be allowed in any other sport.
During most of this season, I have had the opinion that you have to be better than the bad calls, and anything else is just whining, but this game is the one that brings me to complain about it.
The non-targeting calls? WTF? On the first one, the QB is clearly SLIDING, and any hit should have been illegal, much less a clear shot to the golden dome. The inconsistency on this call is crazy, and how many big drives stopped and valuable players removed have we had from targeting being called on us. There is no consistency what-so-ever on this. I revise that statement, the refs in this game were consistent in not calling the penalty both times it should have been applied.
They mentioned in the broadcast that one of the players had been ejected just two games ago for targeting, so the refs should have had their radar on.
And yes, that PI call. You could actually see an ND player making the “throw the flag” motion from the sideline because he could see an obvious offensive PI. Disgusting.
Obviously at 4-6 you don’t get breaks from the refs, but two player safety non-calls, and a call that should have been 15 yards in the opposite direction, and it’s pretty hard to support using ACC refs during home matchups. I guess we don’t really have any other options, unless we can get clearwall to get a crew together.
This season sucks. I’m sorry if ND’s crap season is screwing up your plan for a shiny new blog, Eric. Keep up the good work, and I’ll stick around. It’s nice to have a place to commiserate.
What the hell is taking Trump so long to “Make America Great Again By Putting ND on Top of the Football Universe”? Promises were made, man!
Luke said he was happy to see the flag because he thought it was on the receiver for pulling his head back. Also called the penalty “bogus.” I can’t blame him.
FIRE MURTAUGH
His heart doesn’t seem to be in it any more.
You almost wonder if he’s writing this way just to get himself fired…
It’s pretty clear that Murtaugh has lost the blog. 18 Stripes needs to throw a truck full of cash at that Houston blogger before another site snatches him up.
Guys, I just need a new strength coach and it’s back to the top.
You have to admit, we put the special in special teams.
BTW, speaking of… did Punter Bro not follow us over? We need one of those ST gurus to dice and slice our inconsistent play. Like, WTF happened on all the kickoff coverages? I mean, VT’s starting fld position was really outrageous.
He did, he’s just been behind the scenes all season busy with the stuff he actually gets paid to do – he’s a JAG these days, generally leaves him with less time to do 8,000 word special teams reviews here. No doubt he’ll make a triumphant return soon, though, most likely when Roberto Aguayo is announced as our new head coach in another month or so.
But even if this blog wins 10 games next year, are we really better? It’s such a weak schedule next year. Better to fire you now. I hear we can get a really underrated Western Michigan blogger.
(1) The team is not bad (talent / ability wise) – they are not getting blown out, there is some talent, and this should be an 8 win season. They just cannot play a complete game. Is the problem that Kizer folds when things start going poorly? He is obviously talented, but this question cannot be dismissed without further examination.
(2) The defense needs more help – a player who can tackle on special teams like Claypool should be moved to outside linebacker / rush end immediately. Yes he has potential on offense, but he is needed on defense.
(3) The offense needs a smash-mouth running the ball package of formations / plays. Why can’t this offense evolve to include some under center formations / plays? Use Luatua as a lead blocker; run play-action deep passes from this formation to keep the defense honest.
(4) I really try to remain unbiased when it comes to officiating – I understand that some calls go against you, and some are in your favor. For example, based on replay, that pass interference call on Luke was horrendous – but in the moment, I understand that a ref can get that wrong and will assume it was the defender initiating contact (that seems to be true 4 out of 5 times). However, the lack of calls when Kizer was SLIDING AND GETTING HIT IN THE HEAD from neither the in-game refs nor the replay booth was puzzling.
On #1, there has been some regression at times, but I’m not so sure I’d put the folding label on Kizer. He’s played pretty well in some clutch situations over the past two seasons. Granted, there have been games like Saturday, but in pressure spots, I think the good has outweighed the bad. I’d credit him with playing well in the following pressure spots:
2015 UVA – off the bench for that matter.
2015 Clemson- had his receivers held onto the ball, he would have been a hero in that game.
2015 USC – the team got down on a big stage and he made plays and drove the offense to take back control
2015 Temple – He had some of the mistakes that put them in a hole, but he helped dig them out when it mattered.
2015 Stanford – The turnover before half hurt, but he played well most of that game including a clutch drive to take the lead in a game the defense clearly lost in spite of the odds being stacked in their favor.
2015-16 OSU – He never had a chance and got beat up, but he and Fuller were the lone bright spots.
2016 Texas – He almost saved ND from a ridiculous rotation and horrible defense.
2016 Michigan St. – Again ST and defense sunk them but he led the charge that just wasn’t enough.
That’s pretty much where we started to see some regression, but the kid has repeatedly either bailed the team out from ST and defensive woes or done everything he could to help overcome them. Could he have played better down the stretch this season? Absolutely. But I think the evidence on which he should be judged regarding poise and clutch points to the positive.
Can’t agree more on the other three pieces, though.
Agreed. He hasn’t been great at all times, but it’s practically all on him to lead us down the field and score with no help, since we’re afraid of our own running game, and our defense hasn’t exactly been helpful most of the time either. I feel for the kid, even if I don’t think he’s played like he’s ready for the NFL and has a lot of room to improve.
Amen. It’s been frustrating to see Kelly’s teams dump everything on the quarterback when they run into adversity. Time and again the defense is crap and the running game seems to get forgotten (even when we aren’t playing from behind) so everything gets thrown on the shoulders of a 20 year old who can’t carry the load all season. The only one who didn’t at least start to crack under that pressure was unfortunately gifted with the talents of a MAC-level player.
Whoever we get next (I’m assuming Kelly is back for 2017, but is gone before 2018 for whatever reason), I really hope they install a run-first spread. We don’t need to go to I-formation manball the harrumphers pine for, but it would be to have a steady running game to relieve the pressure on the rest of the team.
Doesn’t need to be “run first” spread, just “run not forgotten” spread.
This loss though, it does make the USC game more interesting. Even though there’s not a bowl game involved, it kinda sets up the next six months worth of narrative. The options:
1) Blowout loss – I think this is the only way Kelly realistically gets fired. Which creates the narrative of “Who’s the next coach, will he actually be an improvement?”
2) Close loss – probably the worst potential narrative, Kelly enters the next season on the hot seat and we’re subject to six months of “Kelly’s future” narrative
3) Win – The football coaching narrative equivalent of “So the underwear from that pretty explosive shart, most of the shartstain came out – so…we keep them I guess?”
How could we expect anything other than a blowout loss against USC? That might be the worst where it becomes obvious a new head coach is needed but for other reasons (read: contract extension a year ago) Kelly comes back anyway.
Because Notre Dame hasn’t been blown out once this season (which is two fewer times than USC has been), because in late September USC was 1-3 and pondering the reason for existence in life, and the most inspiring teams in their winning streak are Washington and Colorado – two big time powerhouses.
Perhaps most importantly, no one should feel comfortable thinking that anything even remotely associated with 2016 Notre Dame football is a foregone conclusion.
Yea except that ND has lost all these close games to middling to very bad teams. So what happens when we play a halfway decent to good team?
USC is 8-3. After Notre Dame beats them and they get clobbered in their bowl game, they’ll be 8-5 and the narrative will be about how USC was just fool’s gold rather than them being considered legitimately decent to good.
Also, screw USC.
“It’s going to be so difficult to explain this season to my future children someday.” This.
My optimistic persona is hopeful we have a minimum 10-win season in 2017 and we look back on this season with a “How did that ever happen?” attitude.
My pessimistic side almost hopes we lose decisively this Saturday. It will be less frustrating than seeing us blow another lead and lose yet another close game.
I know it will never happen, but I would love to hear an explanation/justification for the DPI on Luke.
The official explanation: “The official felt the defensive player impeded the offensive player’s path to the ball. After review, this was an incorrect call.” End of story. I don’t want to get all bitter or anything, but there’s very little true accountability for the refs, especially in non-conference games. If it’s really bad they might get suspended for a game, and probably the best-rated crews get to work the bowl games, but that’s about it. Yawn, rinse, repeat.
Wait. The ACC reviewed the call and said it was incorrect?
Did they say anything about the targeting calls?
As far as I’m concerned, they should be treating this like an in-conference game if they want us in the conference.
“It’s going to be so difficult to explain this season to my future children someday.” I have 2 children, and I tried to explain it to them already.
Last season, I had to talk to my daughter about I*wa, and now this?
Speaking of your children,
how is the Princess doing these days?
She is great. Smart, maybe too smart, and really funny little girl. I owe some pictures of the new guy up here, I just haven’t had the energy yet. His current record is 2-2, so he needs to step up his game.
God, that fourth quarter was just a horror that eventually turned to farce. The three-and-out-then-punt-to-midfield was a miserably predictable sequence that eventually had me laughing like Walter White in the crawlspace. I’m still at a loss for how the offense failed that spectacularly for an entire quarter.