Mike Brey likes to divide up his Fighting Irish basketball season into “segments.” If you listen to his comments to his team after their November 26th win over Chicago State, he asks them to finish this segment strong with a win over Iowa on Tuesday the 29th. Looking at the Irish schedule, he appears to be treating November and December as distinctive segments of the season. Looking to build momentum going in to the ACC meat grinder is imperative for Brey and his charges. Let’s break down the segments of the Irish schedule and ponder what we’ve learned as this first month comes to a close.
SEGMENT ONE – November
Starting the season with the Legends Classic afforded Notre Dame a good balance for November. Opening with two opponents rated 300 and 265 in KenPomeroy’s adjusted efficiency rankings gave Brey a chance to get guys a lot of minutes and test rotations while cruising to comfortable 25 and 43 point wins at home. The schedule also provided a visit from Loyola of Maryland (KenPom 282) for another 35-point romp. All of this was designed to give Notre Dame momentum going in to the Brooklyn portion of the Legends schedule vs. power 5 opponents. The November 21st matchup with Colorado represented the first time the Irish met a program with a similar profile, rated in the upper 100 of the Pomeroy rankings. On a neutral floor, Brey’s squad opened the game with a 57% win probability and after trailing 0-2 early, went on to a solid 6 point victory. On the second night in Brooklyn, the Irish drew the Big Ten’s Northwestern as a surprise opponent, after they dismantled Texas in a mild upset. The Irish once again cruised early, but a second half drought put Notre Dame in its first, and only, second half deficit of the season. Thankfully, Matt Farrell and the Irish squad responded down the stretch and pulled out a 4-point victory to take home the Legends Classic title. The November schedule also featured a Saturday match up with Chicago State (KenPom 335) to act as a buffer between the Power-5 opponents in Brooklyn and hosting Iowa in the ACC/Big Ten challenge. Notre Dame swiftly discharged the Cougars 91-60 in front of the holiday weekend crowd. As students settle in from Thanksgiving break, they’ll be treated to a home tilt vs. Iowa as part of the annual ESPN-driven cross-conference challenge.
Irish fans have learned a lot about this team in the month of November. While it lacked a marquee top-10 contest, November gave the Irish two solid power-5 wins and enough competition to feel a little game pressure here and there. It is encouraging to see a team refuse to play down to lower-end competition and generally stay in character. Brey has noted several times that one of the more remarkable aspects of this team is their ability to stay within themselves and their roles on the team. Guys know their place, they’re generally pleased with those roles, and they’re excited to perform them on a nightly basis. This is a great base of success to build on. If the Irish can take care of business vs. Iowa, coming through this first segment with a 7-0 record and three P5 wins provides a great springboard for success.
SEGMENT TWO – December
Ignoring the ACC opener at Pittsburgh on 12/31, the Irish face another six non-conference opponents in 2016. This segment features two contests versus Power 5 opponents in addition to a match-up with a game Fort Wayne squad that just pulled a stunning upset of Indiana. The Irish open the month with their lowest-rated opponent of the year in NC A&T before hosting the dangerous Fort Wayne Mastadons on the 6th of the month. The Irish then travel to New Jersey to face defending national champions, Villanova, on a “neutral” floor. This will represent the first time the Irish will be definitive underdogs. The Wildcat’s are currently 4th in Pomeroy’s ratings and his model gives the Irish only a 26% chance of pulling the upset. Brey only gets a week at home before then traveling to Indianapolis to face currently 15th rated Purdue at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse in the annual Crossroads Challenge. Once again, the Irish will play the role of underdog, but Pomeroy gives Notre Dame a 43% chance of winning on a “neutral” floor vs. Matt Painter’s side. Brey wisely put a quick-turnaround in place after the Purdue game and his squad will face 230th rated Colgate two days later at home. The Irish will then take 11 days off over Christmas and resume play Wednesday, 12/28 in a home tilt over 169th rated Saint Peter’s before traveling to Pitt that weekend.
If November was designed as a springboard, December looks to be the challenge portion of the non-conference schedule. With a few solid buffers in place, contests vs. Villanova and Purdue give Brey his first chance to challenge his squad and let them feel what it is like to confront the upper echelons of the college game. Knowing the conference schedule is filled with top flight competition, the Villanova/Purdue combination will look humane compared to the Syracuse/Virginia or Duke/UNC back-to-back’s comping up in ACC play. If the Irish can exit December with a solid 11-2 non-conference resume, it sets up well for ACC play. Stumble vs. Ft. Wayne, and things look a little tighter, but pull off a Purdue or Villanova upset, and you’ll be looking at an 12-1 or 13-0 ranked team heading in to conference play.
SEGMENT THREE – January
While just about every ND sports fan on the planet will shout with joy when the calendar turns 2016 into the past, Irish basketball fans might feel like that’s a hop out of the frying pan and into an ACC fire. The Irish open play at Pitt on New Year’s Eve, then host Louisville on 1/4. Pitino’s Cardinals have solicited a 7 rating in Pomeroy’s rating, and history indicates this will be a challenging test for the Irish. The home stand continues with a visit from Jaron Blossomgame and his Clemson teammates. The Tigers have struggled out of the gate, but their athleticism and senior leader make them dangerous any night. While just about any South Bend resident would crave a break from January weather, a trip to Miami on 1/12 will also represent a stiff test for Brey’s squad. In one of their few Thurs/Sat short-turnarounds, the Irish depart southern Florida for a trip to Virginia to take on Buzz Williams’ VT Hokies on the 14th. Wednesday the 18th allows for another escape to Florida to take on the Seminoles followed by a home tilt against Syracuse on the 21st. Three days later, the Irish host nemesis Tony Bennett and his currently 2nd rated Virginia side. The month finally ends on a trip to Atlanta to take on the always game Yellow Jackets and a simple home visit from currently top rated Duke.
So let’s look at the tally. In January, the Irish will be favored in exactly 3 of their 10 conference games. One of those favored match-up’s is against 9th rated Syracuse. While the Joyce Center has been a great home-court advantage for Notre Dame, matching up vs. the formidable Orange side at home doesn’t give me the same confidence it does Pomeroy’s model. It is entirely realistic the Irish open ACC play 2-8 and enter February not only unranked but outside NCAA Tournament consideration. Of course, it is also possible this team is far better than the sum of its statistical parts. Honestly, Irish fans should be thrilled if Brey and his side can piece together a 5-5 January to set up an exciting stretch run. Asking for much more versus that schedule is just plain greedy.
SEGMENT FOUR – February (plus a little March)
Much like the South Bend winter, February opens harshly with a trip down to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina. Thankfully, the Irish set up a steady Sat/Tue rhythm in February as they host Wake and FSU before going to Boston and Raleigh. The final stretch sees Notre Dame hosting Georgia Tech and BC before wrapping the ACC schedule in Louisville on March 4th.
Two meetings with BC give Notre Dame a little breathing room in the February schedule. The Pomeroy ratings project a healthy 5-3 record through this stretch, and that would certainly feel like a solid finish to the ACC season. If that’s stacked on a 4-6 or better January, it should be enough to get Notre Dame into the dance, but a win or two in Brooklyn during the ACC Tournament would make Selection Sunday much less stressful.
THE BIG PICTURE
College basketball coaches face a unique challenge. On the one hand, they must look at the entirety of their team’s schedule and concoct a plan to get their team into the post-season. Conversely, they need to manage a roster and staff that is asked to grind out a regular season schedule that spans 112 days and countless frequent flyer miles. Over nearly four months, coaches, players, and entire teams feel the up’s and down’s that come with the grind of college basketball. Mike Brey has consistently helped his charges break down that big picture in to manageable chunks and segments. The psychological benefits of breaking down the season this way are obvious. First, it gives you achievable goals within sight. Looked at in its totality, the season can be daunting, but when you’re asked to work on something for a month, results can feel much more immediate and achievable. Moreover, if the Irish struggle in a given chunk of the season, it gives them a clear opportunity to turn the page on that segment and move on to the next. He sets an achievable goal for his team in each month and tunes the practice schedule and content to match the needs of his team in that segment and beyond. As fans, we tend to rise and fall with the tides of each individual game, but when broken down in to simple months, the schedule looks more like a puzzle to be solved and optimized vs. a life-and-death set of gauntlets to be survived. Manage the current month, stay focused, and move on to the next segment. Brey’s message to his team is clear and unwavering. Take care of today’s business and we’ll get to the next chunk when it arrives. If we’re riding momentum, let’s enter the next month on a roll. If not, let’s turn the page and get back at it. This is brilliant management of the team and will hopefully lead to continued success for the Irish.
Interesting! Most years, you need 21 wins to feel secure about a bid. We have 6 right now, and our remaining schedule shakes out like so using kenpom metrics:
7 games against the top 10
14 games against non-top 10 major opponents (ACC slate plus Iowa and Purdue)
4 games against cupcakes (including IPFW)
So, assuming we win the four cupcakes and maybe steal 2 against the top 10, we would need to win 9 of 14 of the other games vs major opponents. Going to be very tough sledding this year. ACC schedule is no cakewalk.
It’s certainly a tough schedule, but 9-5 against that 14 from Power Conferences wouldn’t even be that good. 2 of them are BC, 2 of them are a slightly-better Georgia Tech, neither of which are even in KenPom’s top 100. So that’s only a 5-5 record against Power Conference teams that are good-but-not-great themselves, and 4 of THEM aren’t even in the top 50.
Break it down even further, and you should be able to go 4-0 vs. BC/GT, 3-1 against Iowa/NC ST/Pitt/Wake, and split the teams that like us are in the 25-40 range. If you can’t go 10-4 or better against that group of 14, you’re probably not all that good and should be on the bubble.
Honestly, 2-5 against the top 10 would likely be mediocre in my opinion as well, but it could happen to even a competitive team. That 9-5 would be fairly unacceptable to me, though. At some point, you have to win games. If you go .285 against top opponents and .500 against good, tournament-quality opponents, do you really belong in the tournament?
The ACC is so loaded that 8-10 in conference might be good enough, although I hope for much better than that. 8-10 will look even better if we can add some more non conference quality wins to the 2 we already have.
If you believe in Pomeroy, then 10-8 is the current projection. Mathematically, I presume that makes the most likely outcomes to fall between 8-10 and 12-6, but these guys aren’t software simulations. There’s going to be a lot of emotional ups and downs in this season.
If you look at the win probabilities in our ACC season, the distribution currently looks like:
There are a bunch of 39-49% win probabilities in there (UVa, at VT, at FSU, L’Ville, at Pitt, at NCSt). I think the JACC is a little over-valued in the KP model, but if the road dawgs show up, the VT, FSU, Pitt, and State games are all very winnable. Get even 2 of those and split your 50-66 games and don’t trip up in your 6 “easiest” games and you’ve secured .500.
Don’t get me wrong, it is a damn tough league, but there is a reasonable route to .500.
This is a cool way to break it down. I’m pretty confident that we can head into conference play at 11-2, and anything better than that would be gravy. The first half of the ACC schedule (or Segment 3) looks so brutal, and we’ll really need to pull off a couple of our patented upset wins to avoid that possible 2-8 start. Like you said, 5-5 would be fantastic, and we could use that softer second half to springboard into the postseason. Can’t wait to see how it unfurls.
Compartmentalization is going to be the central theme for the season. Brey’s got to be willing and able to get thru that brutal early ACC gauntlet with the team mentally in tact. That’s what worries me the most. If something awful like 2-8 happens during the darkest, crummiest part of the year – when it is most like a grind – how do they stay engaged? That’s going to be a massive challenge.
Breaking it down in to chunks is the only reasonable way to have the whole squad rip the month off the calendar and get on with a very important closing stretch. Even a 2-8 disaster in January can be overcome with a really solid February and some noise in March.
It is incredibly annoying to me that they are being made to travel to Florida then Virginia then Florida again in the span of a week. The ACC schedulers really couldn’t have figured out a way to make the Thurs/Sat both in Florida?