Notre Dame opens up the 2nd fall camp of the Marcus Freeman era on Wednesday, July 26th with the Week 0 game in Ireland against Navy quickly approaching. As of this writing, just 40 days away until kickoff in Dublin! It feels like the middle of summer (well technically it is) but Irish football is close to being back on the field and preparations for the 2023 season are nearly here.
Here’s our 18 Stripes preview of the Notre Dame offense ahead of camp opening.
Coordinator: Gerad Parker, 1st Season
The controversy died down after spring practice concluded although we can expect the criticism to ramp back up and the bullseye to be back on Gerad Parker and his leadership over the Irish offense. Five months ago, Parker wasn’t on anyone’s radar to be a future offensive coordinator at Notre Dame yet here we are.
Heading into fall camp, Parker should have plenty of confidence after the display Sam Hartman made for the crowd during the spring game (13 of 16 for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus a 1-yard touchdown run in just 4 series) and the ability to run the offense through a talented quarterback. However, questions remain (we’ll get to that soon) and it’ll definitely take through 2024 for most skeptics to believe Parker is a good offensive coordinator and not someone who road Hartman’s coattails in year one.
Returning Starters: 5/11
Like many programs, the number 5 doesn’t tell the whole picture with the experienced talent on hand and need further explanation. Quarterback Sam Hartman comes in as one of the most veteran players at his position in the country and is a massive 6th starter who clearly isn’t new to college football.
A Notre Dame QB on Sportscenter in July that’s a good sign.Â
It’s brave new world without Michael Mayer, although Mitchell Evans is no stranger to the field.
At receiver, it feels more like 1.5 receivers and not 2 full new starters as young players saw the field quite a bit last year and Chris Tyree should be thrown in the mix as a veteran presence.
On the offensive line, 3 unquestioned starters return plus Andrew Kristofic has 8 career starts and may win a job this month. All in all, the picture is a little rosier than fewer than half of the starters returning.
Injuries
Notre Dame is hoping to open camp with a really encouraging injury situation on offense.
TE Kevin Bauman
TE Eli Raridon
RB Jadarian Price
OT Charles Jagusah
Jagusah, Notre Dame’s top rated freshmen from the incoming 2023 class, had surgery back in January for a torn PCL and partially torn ACL that he played through during his senior season. He commented back in May before arriving on campus that the Notre Dame training staff thinks he’ll be ready to go by October so perhaps we’ll see very little of Jagusah before the season begins.
Price muscles: check; Price Achilles: TBD.
Bauman tore his knee back in September and is expected to be ready for camp. Marcus Freeman updated both Raridon (knee) and Price (Achilles) last month and said he expects both to be ready for fall camp. That feels really hopeful for those players given their injury timeline (October 2022 and June 2022, respectively) but if true it’s potentially an enormous boost to the playmaking ability for 2023.
Camp Questions
Taking a look at the 3 most pressing questions for the Notre Dame offense coming into camp:
#1 Can this be a great Notre Dame offensive line?
Most publications this off-season have the Irish offensive line as a top 10 unit nationally, and in some places inside the top 5 prior to kickoff. That’s largely due to the star power of left tackle Joe Alt (and to a lesser extent right tackle Blake Fisher) although Notre Dame fans are probably more skeptical and unsure than the national media.
Joe Rudolph comes from Virginia Tech and has two outstanding tackles to build from in 2023.
Center Zeke Correll is getting a lot of “he’s started a bunch of games so he must be good” talk which is both fair but also not an incredibly in depth look at his career. How well Notre Dame will insert a pair of guards on either side of Correll could have massive ramifications for the offense. We’ll also see how new offensive line coach Joe Rudolph handles the traditional ups and downs of this unit which have plagued the team in the past–even in the best years.
#2 Will the receivers be ready to hit the ground running?
Only 40(!) receptions return from a year ago at the receiver position which seems impossible in the year 2023 but alas. Twenty-five of those catches come from Jayden Thomas who should be able to shine in a larger role in 2023. Picking up the offense with high quality receivers behind Thomas (and without a proven elite tight end safety valve) is overshadowing the entire offense.
The non-freshman with the most pressure:
Deion Colzie – Seemingly left for dead in 2022, he’s suddenly a true junior, packed in all of his production (including an impressive 75 yards against USC) over the second half of the season, and should have plenty of confidence during camp.
Tobias Merriweather – Just 1 catch last year didn’t meet lofty expectations for the current sophomore who had a good spring after dealing with a concussion in 2022 and he needs to take a sizable step during camp into a legit starter.
Merriweather could be boom or bust.
Chris Tyree – We pondered whether Tyree would seek a transfer this off-season and instead he looks like he’ll be used primarily as a receiver, where he caught 24 passes last year (mostly out of the backfield). He only averaged 5.75 yards per reception in 2022 and let’s hope he can make a nice impact in a new role in 2023.
#3 How many cracks will Sam Hartman paper over?
My initial guess is that it’ll be a lot, at least against the weaker 75% of the schedule. With the talented Hartman it’s difficult to imagine a 2022 Stanford, 2020 Louisville, or 2018 Ball State happening to the offense. The larger question will be how high Hartman can take this offense and help things out when the running game is getting bogged down against the better defenses.
New Faces to Watch
RB Devyn Ford
We thought Notre Dame might bring in a transfer at wide receiver but following the departure of Logan Diggs to LSU the team added Penn State transfer Devyn Ford instead. His career started hot in Happy Valley but only 21 carries over 2021-22 slowed things down considerably. Ford may not be a key part of the Irish backfield as a runner but he does offer versatility as a pass catcher and special teams kickoff return man.
WR Kaleb Smith
No longer Kaleb Smith the Younger as Kaleb Smith the Elder retired from football this spring. Now, Smith arrives for his first fall camp after 3 of his classmates enjoyed an impressive spring at this position. Officially listed as KK Smith on the Notre Dame roster, he is slight of build at 5’11” and 170 pounds but possesses enticing quickness.
I guess we’re calling him KK now.Â
C Ashton Craig
This may not be a name many are paying attention to going into camp. However, the redshirt freshman quietly made a move during spring and was getting a lot of reps as the backup center. Craig may not play a big role in 2023 but he’s a name to watch as a potential starter down the line.
PK Spencer Shrader
After one season, the Blake Grupe era is over for Notre Dame. Former top kicker recruit Josh Bryan kicked one extra point in his career and left the football team this past March. In walks, South Florida transfer Spencer Shrader who has made 28 field goals and all of his 95 extra point attempts in his career.
Key Positional Battles
Left & Right Guard
Admittedly, not much is expected to change since we left things off during spring and the Blue-Gold Game. Andrew Kristofic and Billy Schrauth are looking like the favorites to win these jobs, and Rocco Spindler had an impressive spring game to get himself back into the mix again possibly. Redshirt sophomore Pat Coogan could be a name to surprise and jump up the depth chart, or perhaps redshirt junior Michael Carmody–someone who has flipped between tackle and guard throughout his career–gets the call at one of the guard spots.
Receivers Behind Thomas
Surely Thomas is going to lead the way for the receivers and he has the added bonus of being comfortable, and spending a lot of time, in the slot in addition to on the outside. The offense needs to figure out a rotation on the outside that it trusts with Hartman.
Normally, the slot isn’t that important of a position in the Notre Dame offense. Heading into 2023 it might be more so than usual if the tight end position spends less time on the field, see below.
In addition to Thomas, we know former walk-on Matt Salerno will see the field a little bit in the slot. With Chris Tyree’s move from running back surely most of his snaps are from the slot. In addition, true freshman Jaden Greathouse caught 11 passes from the slot during the spring game and could be an emerging weapon from the first game.
Figuring out the pecking order at the outside positions and being able to rely on a few receivers there could be a much larger challenge.
Running Back Backups
Audric Estime is lined up to get a lot of carries. Last year, he seemed to get winded on occasion and he’s slimmed down a bit heading into 2023 which should help keep him on the field. This program typically likes a running back by committee approach but may not have that luxury until others can step up.
Rising redshirt freshman Gi’Bran Payne is one of those players.
Deland McCullough is betting on Payne.
The amount of proven depth has plummeted and Payne is moving up as a trusted backup despite just 2 carries in 2022. Obviously, a healthy Jadarian Price changes the complexity of the running back room or possibly if Devyn Ford excels after finding a new home. We also can’t eliminate the possibility that Chris Tyree ends up making extended appearances as a running back.
The Post-Mayer Tight End World
Do we know if this is a strong position for the Irish? National outsiders may be skeptical due to the extreme low levels of overall experience and returning receptions among this group. Still, most fans of the program think Mitchell Evans is ready to blossom and early reports on sophomore Holden Staes were promising last year.
If Raridon and Bauman can truly be healthy this is an interesting and possibly very dangerous group. But if those guys aren’t back to their former selves you could imagine a scenario where Notre Dame begins shying away from multi-tight end group in favor of more receivers on the field.
Punt Return
This should be a wide open competition from the beginning of camp. Not many have experience returning punts, with the exception of Matt Salerno who we’d expect to be a safe backup option but not someone explosive enough to win the job outright.
This could be a position where someone really young rises to the occasion. Will one of the freshmen receivers grab it? Will new running back Jeremiyah Love be an intriguing choice? Freshman corner Micah Bell is listed at 162 pounds but may fancy himself one of the fastest players on the team with the shiftiness to make plays with the ball in his hands.
Redshirt Watch
I don’t see a path to any of the freshmen offensive linemen burning a year, especially with Jagusah rehabbing a knee injury. Connor Flanagan starts 5th on the tight end depth chart although with the injury history of his teammates he has an outside shot to play more than expected.
Out of the 10 freshmen on offense from the 2022 class only 2 (Merriweather and Staes) burned a year. Surely, Kenny Minchey will redshirt at quarterback unless something terrible happens. My guess is that all 5 of the skill position players are going to burn a year of eligibility. There isn’t good enough depth at receiver for anyone to sit out 8 or 9 games, plus Love may be relied upon just enough (with an eye to Estime turning pro after 2023) to remove any notion of a redshirt.
Freshmen Numbers
QB Kenny Minchey #8
RB Jeremiah Love #22
WR Braylon James #14
WR Rico Flores #17
WR Jaden Greathouse #19
WR Kaleb Smith #11
TE Cooper Flanagan #87
IOL Joe Otting #64
IOL Sam Pendleton #72
IOL Chris Terek #55
OT Sullivan Absher #75
OT Charles Jagusah #56
*Blue italics indicated true freshmen who enrolled early back in January.Â
I’m hoping that Hartman’s experience and confidence in himself will overcome the WR groups lack of both. This is the first time in quite a while we’ve had a QB with the experience and seeming confidence of Hartman. Surely last yrs. QBs did not posses both and unlike Ian Book I’m hoping not to be screaming “throw the damn ball” so often this upcoming season. The trade off may be a few more interceptions for much more offense.
An aside, I hope ND is extra careful with Price and Raridon. Their injuries can be career threatening and often need extra time to truly get back to 100%. They are both ultra talented and getting them back in the lineup will be very tempting for the staff.
I feel the same way about Price and Raridon.
Some selected teams’ offensive returning production for comparison to ND’s 65% (67th)(transfers counted) according to Bill Connelly’s (ESPN) formula and with national ranking in paratheses:
-Ohio State 57% (97th)
-Michigan 84% (4th)
-Oklahoma 47% (117th)
-USC 75% (32nd)
-Kansas 91% (1st)
-Clemson 64% (73rd)
This year’s weights, according to Connelly;
• Quarterback passing yards: 23 percent
• Running back rushing yards: 6 percent
• Receiver/tight end yards: 24 percent of the overall number
• Returning OL snaps: 47 percent
The calculation for ND included Logan Diggs, but his transfer and with only 6% for running back should not affect that calculation much. The loss of Meyer affected the calculation more. Of those, Ohio State and Clemson are the only ones not returning starting QBs or have a transfer QB like Hartman.
As far as Michigan, “offensive returning production” takes on a new meaning for me.
Predictions that nobody asked for but I’m giving anyways.
We go 11-2 and finish season with a BCS Bowl win that doesn’t matter and ND fans will still complain about it in the off-season that there’s an asterisk on the win for some reason.Losses are to Pitt (let down game after USC win) and Clemson (on a 2014 FSU type call).OSU and USC games will look like ND is ready to win a NCHartman breaks multiple single season/single game records including 4,000 passing yards, 40 touchdowns and most yards in a single game.We don’t have a 1,000 yard rusher, but 2 1K receivers and lots of explosive playsAl Golden and Deland go back to the NFL. Chansi moves on to be a Co-OC somewhere and Freeman now more comfortable as HC, goes back to being Co-DC with Mickens.Recruiting ends up top 15 (around 11/12, but average recruit ranking continues to be higher than it has been since the early 90’s.We flip a 5* offensive guy late based on how well the offense does. They only play 5 snaps as a freshman in 2024 and transferIn summation, I think 2023 will be a lot like 2017 and 2005. I don’t feel like there’s been a lot of positive vibes or enthusiasm similar to going into 2017. I think we’re going to see more games of ND blowing out teams than we’ve seen since Holtz. ND will be full hype train going into 2024, but breaking in a new QB and it will be the moment where ND either leaps forward and joins Oklahoma/OSU as perennial top 5 with explosive offenses or stay what we have been.
I’m curious as to what everyone here would consider a “successful” season. There’s plenty of debate about it for ND, especially with no chance to win a Conference Championship. In this scenario, ND goes 11-2 and beats both OSU and USC, but also doesn’t make the playoff. To me, that is a season I would be happy with and would call Successful. In fact, I think I could see myself being happy with 10-3 and a loss to USC thrown in (although I don’t know that I would necessarily call it a “success”).
What do others think? Can missing the Playoff be considered a successful year for ND Football?
Yes, I think missing the playoff can be a successful season for ND this year. To me, a successful season would be:
-Winning 10+ games
-A top 20 offense
-Beating Southern Cal
-No truly bad losses, a la Stanford last year
I won’t predict a NY6 bowl win until I see one actually happen, but that would help a lot, I think. Also, I think it’s important that ND shows that we can play exciting offense and be an attractive destination for high-level QBs and WRs. Hopefully Hartman kicks off a trend.
FWIW, I think we’ll go 9-3 or 10-2.
I’m about here as well. Until we make gains on the contenders, I’m looking for 10 win seasons with some nice wins and no bad losses.
Yes, I would agree. Especially in the initial premise where it would be a 10-2 season and an actual win in a NY6 bowl. I’d sign up for that right now, even though the NY6 bowl win has never been as hollow as it is, that’s still a step in the right direction by any accounts.
It would be kind of sad because presumably Hartman would be the most noticeable reason to go from 9-4 in 2022 to 11-2 in 2023 and he’s a one-and-done. So it’s not much of a building block for the future, but there are certainly worse outcomes than 11-2.
If Hartman stays healthy and we don’t have a top-20 offense, that’s borderline immediately fireable for Parker.
I think it would still be a successful season that with time would leave you with a sour taste of what could have been. I think it would move ND/Freeman forward.
I’m very optimistic that ND is going to play fast, loose, and with Freeman’s swagger this year. I think he knows what to expect, don’t feel like ND and the booster clubs have been parading him around like last year and we’re about to get the version of CMF that got him into the position to be a head coach at 36 years old.
Freeman is a 2nd year HC, so on-field improvement is a successful season to me.
That basically means more wins than last year, so 10-3. More wins doesn’t always mean improvement, but with our schedule, going 9-3 with a bowl win, or 10-2 with a bowl loss would be legitimate improvement in my eyes.
I judge seasons by big wins minus stupid losses. Last year we had 1 big win, 2 stupid losses, so -1 score. So the goal is basically a 0 or better score.
Going 9-3 would mean either 0 big wins and 0 stupid losses or 1-3 big wins and the same number of stupid stupid losses. So a 0 (maybe a +.5 if we beat a big name team in a bowl). Great success!
Going 10-2 would be real progress, even with a bowl loss. It would mean +1-0, +2-1, or +3-2, so +1! At 10-2, we’d be in a NY6 bowl game, so not a bad loss.
The fact that 2024, should be a much more talented team, would give me serious hope for the future in any 10-3 situation. Of course, MF would have to get back to his old recruiting ways for the 2025 class.
Our o/u is 8.5, so an 11-2 season with the BCS win we’ve otherwise never gotten absolutely would be a successful season.
Do those o/u count bowls?
Nope, regular season only.
Well that’s good. I’d have to seriously reset my expectations if bowls were included. But without a bowl, that’s basically exactly where I am at for expectations.
Sadly, the emotional difference between 8 and 9 wins for me will be much larger than the difference in probability between those outcomes. As an ND fan, I should really start preparing for 8 wins.
Man, an 8-4 season will have some really nervous vibes next offseason. I guess depends on whether Hartman gets hurt – 8-4 with that is OK (though will be painful to live through), but 8-4 with Hartman is going to raise some serious big-picture questions for the program.
Some places like DK have shaded the line to 9.0. And with the 8.5 o/u’s, the over is implied based on the odds, so it’s not truly as bleak as it may seem at surface level. 9+ wins still ought to be a realistically fair expectation.
So idk if you need to “prepare” for 8-4. There’s a chance that could happen because crazy and unexpected things happen, but come on Drew Pyne went 8-2 as a starter. Sam Hartman’s not going 8-4.