With all due respect to Navy and Tennessee State, the Notre Dame season begins in earnest on Saturday afternoon as the Irish travel to Raleigh, North Carolina to face the NC State Wolfpack. Seven years ago, Notre Dame played at Noon eastern in Carter-Finley Stadium in a game to be forgotten and never re-visited. We’ll avoid a hurricane this time but scattered thunderstorms and temperatures in the low-to-mid 80 degrees await us this weekend.
NC State is in the beginning of year 11 with Dave Doeren and I definitely didn’t think he’d been with the Wolfpack that long. He’s raised the competitive level with at least 8 wins in 5 out of the last 6 seasons although NC State is coming off a disappointing 2022 in which they started the year #13 in the AP Poll only to go 4-4 in the ACC and lose the Duke’s Mayo Bowl to Maryland.
Notre Dame (-7.5) at NC State
Carter-Finley Stadium
Raleigh, North Carolina
Date: Saturday, September 9, 2023
Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: ABC
Series: 1-2-0 NC State
The Wolfpack have built a bit of a fortress out of Carter-Finley, though. They have won 18 out of their last 20 home games stretching back to the start of 2020. Last year, NC State did blow a 20-7 lead and lost by 1 point to Boston College in Raleigh thanks to a touchdown pass with 14 seconds remaining.
NC State’s Offense
After a 1-year stop at Syracuse, offensive coordinator Robert Anae heads to NC State where he reunites with quarterback Brennan Armstrong whom he coached at Virginia from 2018-21. The Wolfpack had 4-year starter Devin Leary use his 6th year after transferring to Kentucky this off-season while backup Ben Finley also left for California, too.
Armstrong’s stock peaked back in 2021 with Anae calling plays when the Cavaliers put a ton on the quarterback’s plate (500 passing attempts & 98 rushing attempts in 11 games) and if their opener last weekend against UConn is any indication it’ll be more heavy lifting for Armstrong at NC State. Last week, he threw for only 155 yards on 26 attempts but led the team with 19 rushing attempts, 96 rushing yards, and 2 scores on the ground.
NC State returns redshirt junior left tackle Anthony Belton (6-6, 336), redshirt junior center Dylan McMahon (6-4, 305), and redshirt junior Timothy McKay (6-4, 312). McMahon was a 1st-team All-ACC selection last year. The Wolfpack have slid redshirt junior Anthony Carter (6-3, 305) in at left guard and 6th-year senior Derrick Eason (6-4, 315) at right guard, the latter coming into 2023 with 9 starts under his belt.
Armstrong’s career is resembling late-era Russell Westbrook.
5th-year senior running back Jordan Houston (5-10, 192) is back after leading the team in rushing a year ago. He’ll get the bulk of the carries ahead of sophomore Michael Allen (5-9, 203) who was their second best recruit of 2022 and has good speed. NC State was mildly explosive against UConn on the ground (6 rushes for 82 yards, but no carries over 20 yards) but with Houston they can get bogged down at times. Last weekend, Houston had long carries of 12 and 15 yards but had 11 more attempts for just 30 yards.
Former wide receiver Thayer Thomas went undrafted and is on the Minnesota Vikings practice squad after leading NC State in receiving last year. The team also lost 2nd-leading receiver Devan Carter to West Virginia (he led the team in week 1 with 6 catches for 90 yards against Penn State) in the portal this off-season.
Senior Keyon Lesane (5-11, 202) was the 3rd receiver last year and caught 2 passes last weekend. NC State is also really high on true freshman KC Concepcion (5-11, 187) and he led the team with 4 catches and 36 yards against UConn.
In general, the passing game looked pretty rough in the Wolfpack’s opener. The pass blocking looked good but Armstrong couldn’t find anything downfield and was settling for a ton of short and horizontal passes. On 26 pass attempts, he only mustered 155 yards. I would think if Notre Dame tackles well on the perimeter it’ll cause big problems for NC State.
On special teams Western Kentucky transfer Brayden Narveson is the new field goal kicker and made one attempt from 44 yards and missed from 50 yards last week. NC State is replacing 1st-team All-ACC, 1st-team All-American, Lou Groza Award winner, and the NCAA all-time career leader in field goals made Christopher Dunn who was good on an incredible 28 out of 29 field goals last year.
NC State’s Defense
Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has been coaching at the Power 5 level since 1999 and had a combined 7 years (1999-2000, 2014-18) experience running West Virginia’s defense. Since that last stop in Morgantown he’s been the DC for NC State and favors a 3-3-5 scheme.
Senior defensive ends Davin Vann (6-2, 280) and Savion Jackson (6-2, 290) are back as starters. Vann (9.5 career sacks, including 1 last week against UConn) has been the more productive player. They’re joined by redshirt junior C.J. Clark (6-3, 305) at nose guard who came into 2023 with some starting experience.
6th-year senior Payton Wilson (6-4, 238) has been a great defender for the Wolfpack but also battled injuries throughout his career. To date, he’s made 274 tackles and 31.5 tackles for loss from his Will linebacker spot–and he’d picked off a pass last week too. He’ll team up with senior strong-side linebacker Jaylon Scott (6-1, 225) who had some prior starting experience before 2023 and junior middle linebacker Devon Betty (6-1, 232) who also made 4 starts back in 2021.
NC State was pretty high on their front 7 coming into the season and while they only allowed 160 yards on the ground to UConn, there were some concerning large holes and 6.2 yards per rush from the Huskies.
Doeren is the 2nd longest tenured coach in the ACC.
The Wolfpack have added 5th-year senior Robert Kennedy (5-10, 188) as their new nickel starter after he made previous stops at Lackawanna Community College, East Carolina, and Old Dominion.
Both starting corners in redshirt junior Shyheim Battle (6-2, 195) and senior Aydan White (6-0, 189) are back and White especially has NFL potential coming off a 1st-team all-ACC true junior campaign.
5th-year senior Jakeen Harris (5-10, 200) was a backup at safety last year but carries 20 career starts while at NC State. He’ll play next to senior Devan Boykin (5-10, 195) who has started a few games and bounced between nickel and safety during his career.
5th-year senior backup safety Rakeim Ashford suffered a suspected neck injury against UConn and was stretchered off the field. Hopefully he recovers.
Prediction
I typically try to see the best and most optimistic side of Notre Dame’s opponents and I am decidedly unimpressed by NC State coming into the weekend. They are a solid 26-12 since the start of 2020 and good for 1 big win per year, it seems. They play well at home and the weather might get a little sloppy this weekend, too.
There’s some history to suggest this game will be closer than expected but 7.5 points feels low to me.
| STAT | ND | NC STATE |
|---|---|---|
| FEI | 8 | 61 |
| FEI O | 13 | 97 |
| FEI D | 13 | 29 |
Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson remarked this week that Sam Hartman’s role with the Irish has been totally different to his style at Wake Forest and that Notre Dame has one of the best running games in the country. In 3 meetings against NC State, Hartman threw for 923 yards and 6 touchdowns but also threw 6 interceptions.
I’m sure protecting the ball will be extra important for Hartman on Saturday.
Carter-Finley awaits, but probably not this sunny.
Vegas has the over/under at 50.5 points which means they think NC State’s defense should show up and do a pretty good job. With rain expected throughout the game it might turn into a more conservative gameplan on both sides. I am sure the Wolfpack are hoping they can surprise Notre Dame’s untested offensive guards and force some of the greener Irish receivers to make plays, especially against their tough corner Aydan White.
The Noon eastern start is interesting, for home field I would’ve thought NC State would prefer a night game and it might have added a slight advantage on their end. I like the earlier start for Notre Dame.
This game might be close if NC State’s offense was really keeping their cards close to their vest last week and are going to be throwing a lot of new stuff at Notre Dame. However, I don’t think their offense is consistent enough and outside of Armstrong making some plays here and there they will struggle to move the ball.
I’m about halfway through the II podcast and they are making this nc state squad out to be 2018 clemson. This game does have me nervous but I keep coming back to the ACC just isn’t that good. The last 5 years ND has had a ton of these games (2018: at wf, at va tech, vs syracuse, 2019 vs virginia, 2020 at pitt, at unc, 2022 at syracuse, vs clemson, at unc), and they end up controlling the game and kicking their ass. Obviously I hope the same thing happens here.
Crushing ACC teams is a pretty well established pattern at this point and it’s encouraging for tomorrow. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that ACC teams tend to be pretty homogenous — they’re heavily dependent on do-everything diamond in the rough type QBs (the Ian Books of the world), have OK but not great defenses, and don’t do anything unusual. That sounds like this NC State team to me.
The same II crew that used to gloss over half the schedule because all ND did was beat unranked ACC teams?
I’ve seen some people suggest that NCST held back offensively last week, but I don’t see any way that could be true. You wouldn’t run Armstrong 19 times (granted half were scrambles but still) if you’re holding back. And you can afford to hold back when you’re only winning 24-14.
I think there’s some chance their defense could really show up and give us trouble, but I have a very hard time seeing them scoring more than 14.
UConn scored with 2:04 left in the third quarter to pull within three. On NC State’s last meaningful possession, which started with 7:53 left in the fourth, they ran eight plays; four of them were Armstrong dropbacks (three passes, one scramble).
I’m not saying they emptied the playbook, but that certainly is not a “holding back” scenario. Occam’s Razor would suggest that the more reasonable explanation is that they kinda stink.
Someone on BGS made a good point — can NC State afford to run Armstrong a lot tomorrow? ND may whiff on him a few times, but he’s going to get hit hard if they do. Is upsetting ND worth losing him for multiple ACC games? I’m really not sure what their answer to that would be.
If ND is going to have a WTF loss this season, this game seems like a good candidate. The 7.5 line suggests that Vegas thinks something is up too. I expect we’ll come away having a better idea of what this team’s shortcomings are – most likely inconsistent pass protection and iffy tackling.
But I can’t predict a loss until I see someone at least play us close. NC State is going to be annoying as hell – Armstrong will break a frustrating number of big plays, Doeren will call an extremely aggressive and high-risk game, Hartman will look more like a human QB. But NC State’s overaggressiveness will come back to bite them in the ass, Pat Narduzzi style, and we’ll be OK in the end. 28-17 ND.
Bonus prediction: NC State barfs all over their shoes against VMI next week.
32, huh? 2 TDs and 6 FGs, or 4 TDs and 2 safetys?
5 TDs, 3 missed PATs seems most obvious to me
Sure, I forgot about missed PATs
16 safeties seems most plausible with a score of 32
Or idk 4 tds, 1 fg, and one of the tds included a 2pt conversion
Not close…ND 38-17….J. Love takes a kick to the house.
I read this as “Julian Love” at first, which is fitting since the last time we played them (a) it was 35-14 and (b) Julian did indeed score.
I’m in the same boat as you, I don’t think this is close. I’ve had 45-10 all week after I saw the Vegas line. I think Love, Greathouse each add a TD along with 2 by Estime and Flores and Merriweather get their first of the year.
This game is only close if Estime gets the fumbles or Hartman throws some INTs. NC State is going to have to play their safeties so close to the line. I actually like their 3-3-5 defense against most teams, but it has next to zero chance working against Estime without a ton of safety help. They don’t usually rely on the big guys up front to make tackles, instead they try to draw double teams and let the LBs fly into gaps to make big tackles. Estime should absolutely run over those dudes. They will need to gang tackle him, and as soon as those safeties come up close to the line, Hartman should finally get his chance to take a ton of shots downfield.
ND 30 – NC State 13. Estime only has about 7-10 carries before the 4th quarter, where we finally just grind out the clock. Hartman completes 4 downfield passes for over 40 yards, plus another big one on a swing pass/screen to an RB. Never feels close, never feels like a full on Week 1/2 blowout.
I don’t think it’ll be close either. There are a few traps this year but I don’t think it’s NC State’s year. Big game from Jaylen Sneed. They put him as a spy on Armstrong and he gets nothing. They’re forced to try to beat ND through the air and Armstrong throws 3 interceptions. Hartman doesn’t need to do too much except compliment the run game as the four backs (assuming Ford is out) go for 220 and 4 scores.
42-13
Oh god it’s 2011 USF all over again
The UFO should be arriving shortly.
Let’s just never travel to the Carolinas again