With all due respect to Navy and Tennessee State, the Notre Dame season begins in earnest on Saturday afternoon as the Irish travel to Raleigh, North Carolina to face the NC State Wolfpack. Seven years ago, Notre Dame played at Noon eastern in Carter-Finley Stadium in a game to be forgotten and never re-visited. We’ll avoid a hurricane this time but scattered thunderstorms and temperatures in the low-to-mid 80 degrees await us this weekend.

NC State is in the beginning of year 11 with Dave Doeren and I definitely didn’t think he’d been with the Wolfpack that long. He’s raised the competitive level with at least 8 wins in 5 out of the last 6 seasons although NC State is coming off a disappointing 2022 in which they started the year #13 in the AP Poll only to go 4-4 in the ACC and lose the Duke’s Mayo Bowl to Maryland.

Notre Dame (-7.5) at NC State

Carter-Finley Stadium
Raleigh, North Carolina
Date: Saturday, September 9, 2023
Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: ABC
Series: 1-2-0 NC State

The Wolfpack have built a bit of a fortress out of Carter-Finley, though. They have won 18 out of their last 20 home games stretching back to the start of 2020. Last year, NC State did blow a 20-7 lead and lost by 1 point to Boston College in Raleigh thanks to a touchdown pass with 14 seconds remaining.

NC State’s Offense

After a 1-year stop at Syracuse, offensive coordinator Robert Anae heads to NC State where he reunites with quarterback Brennan Armstrong whom he coached at Virginia from 2018-21. The Wolfpack had 4-year starter Devin Leary use his 6th year after transferring to Kentucky this off-season while backup Ben Finley also left for California, too.

Armstrong’s stock peaked back in 2021 with Anae calling plays when the Cavaliers put a ton on the quarterback’s plate (500 passing attempts & 98 rushing attempts in 11 games) and if their opener last weekend against UConn is any indication it’ll be more heavy lifting for Armstrong at NC State. Last week, he threw for only 155 yards on 26 attempts but led the team with 19 rushing attempts, 96 rushing yards, and 2 scores on the ground.

NC State returns redshirt junior left tackle Anthony Belton (6-6, 336), redshirt junior center Dylan McMahon (6-4, 305), and redshirt junior Timothy McKay (6-4, 312). McMahon was a 1st-team All-ACC selection last year. The Wolfpack have slid redshirt junior Anthony Carter (6-3, 305) in at left guard and 6th-year senior Derrick Eason (6-4, 315) at right guard, the latter coming into 2023 with 9 starts under his belt.

Armstrong’s career is resembling late-era Russell Westbrook.

5th-year senior running back Jordan Houston (5-10, 192) is back after leading the team in rushing a year ago. He’ll get the bulk of the carries ahead of sophomore Michael Allen (5-9, 203) who was their second best recruit of 2022 and has good speed. NC State was mildly explosive against UConn on the ground (6 rushes for 82 yards, but no carries over 20 yards) but with Houston they can get bogged down at times. Last weekend, Houston had long carries of 12 and 15 yards but had 11 more attempts for just 30 yards.

Former wide receiver Thayer Thomas went undrafted and is on the Minnesota Vikings practice squad after leading NC State in receiving last year. The team also lost 2nd-leading receiver Devan Carter to West Virginia (he led the team in week 1 with 6 catches for 90 yards against Penn State) in the portal this off-season.

Senior Keyon Lesane (5-11, 202) was the 3rd receiver last year and caught 2 passes last weekend. NC State is also really high on true freshman KC Concepcion (5-11, 187) and he led the team with 4 catches and 36 yards against UConn.

In general, the passing game looked pretty rough in the Wolfpack’s opener. The pass blocking looked good but Armstrong couldn’t find anything downfield and was settling for a ton of short and horizontal passes. On 26 pass attempts, he only mustered 155 yards. I would think if Notre Dame tackles well on the perimeter it’ll cause big problems for NC State.

On special teams Western Kentucky transfer Brayden Narveson is the new field goal kicker and made one attempt from 44 yards and missed from 50 yards last week. NC State is replacing 1st-team All-ACC, 1st-team All-American, Lou Groza Award winner, and the NCAA all-time career leader in field goals made Christopher Dunn who was good on an incredible 28 out of 29 field goals last year.

NC State’s Defense

Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has been coaching at the Power 5 level since 1999 and had a combined 7 years (1999-2000, 2014-18) experience running West Virginia’s defense. Since that last stop in Morgantown he’s been the DC for NC State and favors a 3-3-5 scheme.

Senior defensive ends Davin Vann (6-2, 280) and Savion Jackson (6-2, 290) are back as starters. Vann (9.5 career sacks, including 1 last week against UConn) has been the more productive player. They’re joined by redshirt junior C.J. Clark (6-3, 305) at nose guard who came into 2023 with some starting experience.

6th-year senior Payton Wilson (6-4, 238) has been a great defender for the Wolfpack but also battled injuries throughout his career. To date, he’s made 274 tackles and 31.5 tackles for loss from his Will linebacker spot–and he’d picked off a pass last week too. He’ll team up with senior strong-side linebacker Jaylon Scott (6-1, 225) who had some prior starting experience before 2023 and junior middle linebacker Devon Betty (6-1, 232) who also made 4 starts back in 2021.

NC State was pretty high on their front 7 coming into the season and while they only allowed 160 yards on the ground to UConn, there were some concerning large holes and 6.2 yards per rush from the Huskies.

Doeren is the 2nd longest tenured coach in the ACC. 

The Wolfpack have added 5th-year senior Robert Kennedy (5-10, 188) as their new nickel starter after he made previous stops at Lackawanna Community College, East Carolina, and Old Dominion.

Both starting corners in redshirt junior Shyheim Battle (6-2, 195) and senior Aydan White (6-0, 189) are back and White especially has NFL potential coming off a 1st-team all-ACC true junior campaign.

5th-year senior Jakeen Harris (5-10, 200) was a backup at safety last year but carries 20 career starts while at NC State. He’ll play next to senior Devan Boykin (5-10, 195) who has started a few games and bounced between nickel and safety during his career.

5th-year senior backup safety Rakeim Ashford suffered a suspected neck injury against UConn and was stretchered off the field. Hopefully he recovers.

Prediction

I typically try to see the best and most optimistic side of Notre Dame’s opponents and I am decidedly unimpressed by NC State coming into the weekend. They are a solid 26-12 since the start of 2020 and good for 1 big win per year, it seems. They play well at home and the weather might get a little sloppy this weekend, too.

There’s some history to suggest this game will be closer than expected but 7.5 points feels low to me.

STAT ND NC STATE
FEI 8 61
FEI O 13 97
FEI D 13 29

Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson remarked this week that Sam Hartman’s role with the Irish has been totally different to his style at Wake Forest and that Notre Dame has one of the best running games in the country. In 3 meetings against NC State, Hartman threw for 923 yards and 6 touchdowns but also threw 6 interceptions.

I’m sure protecting the ball will be extra important for Hartman on Saturday.

Carter-Finley awaits, but probably not this sunny. 

Vegas has the over/under at 50.5 points which means they think NC State’s defense should show up and do a pretty good job. With rain expected throughout the game it might turn into a more conservative gameplan on both sides. I am sure the Wolfpack are hoping they can surprise Notre Dame’s untested offensive guards and force some of the greener Irish receivers to make plays, especially against their tough corner Aydan White.

The Noon eastern start is interesting, for home field I would’ve thought NC State would prefer a night game and it might have added a slight advantage on their end. I like the earlier start for Notre Dame.

This game might be close if NC State’s offense was really keeping their cards close to their vest last week and are going to be throwing a lot of new stuff at Notre Dame. However, I don’t think their offense is consistent enough and outside of Armstrong making some plays here and there they will struggle to move the ball.

Notre Dame 32

NC State 19