Georgia Tech was the first team to win a game in the 2024 season when they seemingly pulled off a shocking upset over #10 Florida State in Ireland. Since then, we’ve discovered that Georgia Tech is a decent team while Florida State is aggressively terrible. The Yellow Jackets are feisty but extremely flawed and face major major questions at QB. That being said, Notre Dame should be on their toes in their first-ever visit to Mercedes Benz Stadium.

#12 Notre Dame (-11.5) at Georgia Tech

Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta, Georgia
Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN

The Irish take on the Jackets for the first time since Brian Kelly’s final team obliterated GT and hapless Geoff Collins in 2021. Brent Key was named interim coach following Collins’ dismissal midway through the 2022 season and the Ramblin’ Wreck immediately and dramatically improved. I was skeptical that an offensive line coach promoted to full-time head coach would work but Key has been a small revelation. The Jackets were 10-30 the previous forty games before Collins’ firing but are 16-12 since Key took over.

Offense

How can I put this bluntly: Haynes King makes the whole thing go. The former Texas A&M starter has played good football since arriving in Atlanta and is finally showcasing his natural talent after being freed from the shackles of late-era Jimbo Fisher. Offensive Coordinator Buster Faulkner was a hot name for the Notre Dame OC position this past offseason thanks in part to his ability to unlock King’s potential. The senior from Texas is a dual-threat athlete with a live arm and quick feet having rushed for almost 1,100 yards in 20 games as a starting QB for the Jackets. He has taken a step forward in the passing game this year as well, cutting down on his high interception rate which hampered the Tech offense last season. He’s a dangerous and confident QB with some big performances against good teams under his belt.

Buuuuuuuuut telling you all of this might be moot because King is a game-time decision on Saturday after suffering a shoulder injury against North Carolina. If King can’t go, the Yellow Jackets will turn to backup QB Zach Pyron. Pyron has good size at 6’3 and was a four-star recruit in the 247 consensus coming out of high school but was mostly unimpressive during limited playing time in 2022. It would be a massive blow to Tech’s chances at an upset if King is out tomorrow afternoon.

If that is indeed the case then Pyron will have to lean on Jamal Haynes at running back and Malik Rutherford at wide receiver. Haynes is having another good season after rushing for 1,059 yards at 6.1 yards per carry in 2023, sitting at 536 yards and 5.7 ypc as of this writing. He is running behind an offensive line which returned four of five starters from 2023 and is one of the best in the country this season. More on them later.

Rutherford is having a breakout year with 509 yards receiving which is seven more than he had in all of 2023. He’s a short and small wideout at only 5’9 and 170 pounds but has really nice hands. He makes a ton of difficult catches and uses his speed to rack up YAC. Rutherford would almost certainly draw the Benjamin Morrison assignment but alas, it will be up to Leonard Moore and Christian Gray to keep tabs on him. Rutherford has overtaken Eric Singleton Jr. as GT’s number one receiver which is a bit of a surprise. in 2023, Singleton led all true freshmen last year with 64.2 receiving yards per game and ranked second in touchdown receptions with six. This isn’t the Louisville receiving corps but these guys will hurt the Irish if the secondary isn’t up to the task.

Zach Pyron will probably get the start tomorrow

Defense

If anything, Georgia Tech’s defense is consistent. The Jackets ranked 77th in FEI Defense and 87th in F+/- Defense last year and are 79th and 71st in both categories for 2024. Despite ranking 105th in returning defensive production, Key and Defensive Coordinator Tyler Santucci have essentially the same results. Georgia Tech gives up a lot of points and yards, surrendering 6.15 yards per play which slots in at 88th in the country. By comparison, Notre Dame’s #1 ranked FEI Defense (damn it felt good to type that) is almost two yards better at 4.39 yards per play.

Linebacker Kyle Efford is the leading tackler with 52 on the season. Behind him with 34 tackles is cornerback Ahmari Harvey which is a clue into Tech’s defensive struggles. You’ve got issues if your second-leading tackler is a cornerback with fourteen more tackles on the year than Benjamin Morrison. The Jackets are also one of the least-disruptive teams in the country with only six sacks on the year in games against FBS competition.

Georgia Tech is actually pretty good against the run giving up only 3.61 yards per carry but the secondary bleeds yards in the passing game. When removing their 59-7 win over VMI, Tech has allowed opposing QBs to throw for 245 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, and have only forced one interception. If there was ever a weekend for the Irish passing game to truly break out, this would be the time.

Three Questions

Can Tech win if Haynes King doesn’t play?

I usually hate simple answers to complex problems but this one is easy: no. Simply put, it would take an NIU-like performance from the Irish (not impossible) for the Jackets to score enough points to win. Zach Pyron has talent but he is nowhere near the athlete that King is and removing the QB run game from the equation would be a massive W for Al Golden. Buster Faulkner likes a balanced offense and I just don’t see how this game is close if the Jackets are forced to abandon that identity.

Will the Irish offensive continue to improve?

It’s been a slow burn but things are finally happening for Riley Leonard. He easily had his best game of the season against Stanford and his touchdowns to Jayden Thomas and Kris Mitchell were the kind of throws we need him to make to win in the playoff. Leonard was able to keep the offense on schedule with his arm when Stanford mostly contained the Irish running game in the first half which is a welcome change. For once, 2nd and 10 didn’t feel like a death sentence.

As mentioned, Georgia Tech’s defense is ripe for a gashing. Even as a MASH unit Notre Dame’s offensive line is performing admirably and Tech’s secondary is only slightly better than Purdue’s (105th in passing efficiency defense compared to 122nd for the Boilers). The MO for teams playing the Irish is well-established: shut off the water in the run game and key up on the iffy passing attack. However, Mike Denbrock has shown more trust in Leonard to throw the ball and subsequently open up opportunities in the run game. Notre Dame hasn’t really managed to have two really good offensive games in a row so far this season but this would be the perfect opportunity to change that.

Will injuries take their toll?

The loss of Ben Morrison is the latest crotch punch in what is becoming a ridiculous season. By my rudimentary count, Notre Dame is now down eight players who have started at least one game this season (although Schrauth and Faison are expected back soon). The Irish has endured thanks in part to the talent Marcus Freeman and his staff have stockpiled but there is always a limit to what a team can handle. I would be exponentially more worried about this contest if King was a given to play but his potential absence is a major help to the Irish defense.

That being said, Georgia Tech is a real team with real athletes. I could see Notre Dame struggling on defense even if GT is without King because everyone else has experience. The Jackets ranked 7th in returning offensive production from last year and have the best offensive line in the ACC. The NIU line consistently moving a 95% healthy ND defensive line off the ball has scarred me and that is my biggest fear going into this matchup. The return of Gabe Rubio is huge in this regard because Notre Dame just needs big bodies to soak up blocks. The young linebackers are coming along quite nicely but I don’t want freshmen KVA and Jaiden Ausberry taking on veteran linemen in the second level.

Prediction

If Haynes King plays, this will be a game. The Jackets are a legitimately good offensive team with plenty of players who could start for Notre Dame. Brent Key has also gained a reputation for being a bit of a giant killer. Tech has beaten five ranked (at the time of the game) teams since becoming the head coach in 2022, including a spirited effort against Georgia last season. I have no doubt Georgia Tech will be dialed in tomorrow afternoon so the Irish will have play with a modicum of urgency.

Yet, I don’t see how the Jackets can move the ball consistently enough without King. He has an innate feel for the game which leads to big plays (and plenty of interceptions in 2023) that can’t be replicated. I think Georgia Tech can have offensive success even with the more limited Pyron but it should prove to be fleeting. The Irish offense should be just fine against a poor Tech defense but they have to score touchdowns. The injury to Mitch Jeter is a concern if this is a tight game in the second half so putting the ball in the endzone will really help on that front.

Ultimately, the Yellow Jackets just won’t have enough juice to seriously threaten if Notre Dame comes to play.

Notre Dame 31

Georgia Tech 16

*** Update: Haynes King will not play per Pete Thamel. As you were!