Notre Dame returns to the Meadowlands in northern New Jersey tomorrow to face a resurgent Navy program that’s ranked for the first time since the end of the 2019 season. This is also only the third time since 1958 that both teams have entered the game ranked; the other two games were in 1978, when Dan Devine’s #15 Notre Dame upset #11 Navy 27-7, and in 2019, when Brian Kelly’s #16 Irish demolished the #23 Midshipmen 52-20. Lest you think there are only positive vibes here, it’s also worth noting that the last time these programs met in the Meadowlands was the big Navy win in 2010, Kelly’s first year at the helm of the Irish. You know, the 35-17 defeat that was not remotely as close as the score, in which Navy fullback Alex Teich ran for eleventy billion yards by going straight up the middle over… and over… and over… and over.

Anyway.

#12 Notre Dame (-13) vs. #24 Navy

MetLife Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024
Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: ABC

Not surprisingly, Navy’s offense has impressed the drive-efficiency-focused FEI more than the play-explosiveness-focused SP+. Inherent biases of statistical models aside, there’s no doubt that Navy is much friskier on offense this year under new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, previously FCS Mercer’s head coach. As much as FEI may love option offenses, it still only had Navy ranked 132nd in 2024 and 85th in 2023. They’re better. On the other hand, while they’ve gone 6-0 they’ve only played one team with a winning record; their other five opponents are 10-25 (including an FCS team that’s 3-3 at its own level). This will definitely be a measuring stick game for them.

Offense

Cronic replaced Brian Chestnut, who joined Brian Newberry’s first-year staff last season but never quite got into a rhythm in his attempt to mesh modern concepts into the triple option base. Cronic came in with a plan that was slightly different, implementing a “hybrid wing-T” system he learned from his father, who is a Georgia high school coach. Cronic also said preseason that he’d like to throw up to 25% of their plays, perhaps hinting at an offensive approach closer to the halcyon Air Force days that featured [shudder] Beau Morgan. Cronic’s approach has resulted in a very different product on the field, as highlighted in great pieces by Jamie Uyeyama at ISD and Bill Connelly at ESPN. The Cliff Notes of each is that Cronic uses way, way more pre-snap motion, play action, and formation diversity than we’re used to from Navy. Perhaps no stat better illustrates the philosophical shift than time of possession; in the eight full seasons from 2016 to 2023 the Middies were the top ten nationally five times and never ranked lower than 56th. So far this year they’re 85th.

Nick Saban had this to say about Cronic’s offense when Alabama faced Mercer in 2021:

The easiest way to categorize it would be there’s a lot of three-back runs, even though it isn’t what people would recognize as the wishbone. Between the motions and so forth you know it’s kind of a combination of running three-back-type runs that are not in spread out formations. There are a lot of bunch formations, and there’s a lot of motions and adjustments that players have to make. So this is totally unique to anything that we’ve played against and will play against the rest of the season.

QB Blake Horvath has of course been the on-field key to their success, proving much more dynamic than his recent predecessors were. Horvath is on pace to top 1,000 yards rushing and 1,500 yards passing; the last Navy QB to hit those marks was Malcolm Perry in 2019. He’s averaging almost eight yards per carry and leads the team with 10 rushing touchdowns, and has posted a 210.5 passer rating that would lead the country if he had a qualifying number of attempts. As with Perry, Morgan, and [shudder] Ricky Dobbs, when the option has a legitimate two-way threat at quarterback it becomes much harder to defend.

The running game is, as you might expect, a by-committee affair; Horvath leads the team in carries and yards by a wide margin, and behind him there are five guys who aren’t separated by much. Most notable among them is fullback Alex Tecza, who is averaging just over six yards per carry and has seven scores on the ground (nobody else has more than two). In the receiving corps, Eli Heidenrich leads the team with 23 receptions, very nearly half the team total for the season, at a whopping 21.1 yards per catch; because it’s Navy, he’s also the team’s third-leading rusher. Tecza and Heidenrich have each attempted one pass this season; they’re 1/2 for 13 yards, so not exactly a huge part of the offense, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see them try some trickery this weekend.

Assuming they’re not gaining five yards up the middle repeatedly, anyway. [womp womp]

Defense

On offense, Navy is once again an efficient machine with a dynamic dual-threat under center and a little more explosiveness than we’re used to. Straightforward enough. On defense, they’re a little harder to figure out. Newberry is in his second year in the head job but his sixth year overall in Annapolis, serving as Niumatalolo’s DC from 2019 to 2022. He’s definitely had time to put his system in place, and his results since he got there are… OK, I guess? Since his first season Navy has ranked 52nd, 89th, 75th, 39th, 78th, and 52nd (this year) in defensive FEI. They’re Navy, granted, so getting them to average is solid work. No argument there. I just don’t know that we have evidence Newberry can get them better than that.

It’s also really hard to assess Navy’s defense right now because of how soft their schedule is. Their run defense this year has put up pretty good numbers overall, but the one decent team they’ve played gashed them pretty badly – Memphis had 274 yards on 38 carries (7.2 per carry) and four touchdowns. Memphis also put up 659 yards of total offense, converted 15 of 19 third/fourth downs (12/19 on third down and 3/4 on fourth), converted five red zone chances into three touchdowns, and added three explosive scores – a 57 yard run, a 37 yard pass, and a 36 yard pass.

On the other hand, Memphis also had one of its worst passing performances of the season, and Navy ranks ninth nationally in interceptions. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle with a bit of a bias towards the numbers overstating their quality. Their back four looks solid, but their front seven is light and opportunities on the ground should be there.

Three Questions

Can Notre Dame score enough to pull Navy out of their base?

You can copy and paste this question every year for the Navy preview. This year, with an offensive line down three starters and a quarterback and receiving corps that are maybe starting to gel but also maybe not, it’s worth highlighting even more. One stalled drive isn’t the end of the world, but two consecutive ones and it could be an extremely long day at the office. Based on Memphis’s success on the ground I think Notre Dame can find space there too, but the Irish can’t be one-dimensional and they really can’t turn the ball over or get mental-mistake penalties. I mentioned above that Navy likes to move faster this year, but I can still see them taking the air out of the ball if they get ahead or even if they can keep it close as the game drags on.

Will Navy continue to take unusually good care of the ball?

Navy has only thrown two interceptions this year, both in their opener against FCS Bucknell. Granted, they don’t throw much, but that’s kinda nuts. They also have had just two fumbles on offense, which again, is kinda nuts, and they’ve recovered both of them. For those of you can’t do complicated arithmetic in your head, yes, that means they’ve lost only two turnovers all season, and none since the first game. Since 2016, the earliest season that cfbstats.com goes back to, the Middies have on average lost just under nine fumbles per season with a low of five lost in 2021. Without going through all the game tape it’s hard to say if they’ve been lucky or good; my guess is they’ve been pretty good and also pretty lucky. If the Irish can turn that luck around (and score?) it should loosen things up quite a bit.

Can all the new faces on the Irish defense crack the option?

If Jordan Botelho and Ben Morrison were on the field for this game, I would be much less worried about this. The reality though is that a lot of faces in Notre Dame’s defense this year haven’t had a chance to see Navy’s offense live before and that could make them vulnerable. It helps that Howard Cross and Rylie Mills will likely be extremely stout and smart up the middle, and that Xavier Watts and Jack Kiser are practically made in a lab to face this kind of offense. But the defense is full of other guys who will be in a trial by fire tomorrow, with multiple contributors at each level of the defense getting their first real taste of facing an option offense. Compounding the concern here is that eye discipline has at times been a challenge for Notre Dame’s young linebacker corps, and that’s exactly what the option challenges most of all.

Prediction

I go back and forth on this game a lot. On the one hand, like in any other Navy game, Notre Dame has a massive talent advantage that should in theory allow them to overwhelm the opponent. On the other hand, Navy has a tough combo of a dynamic quarterback and frisky secondary that could each challenge the most prominent weak points across the line of scrimmage. I get the feeling this will be one of those relatively rare middle-road Notre Dame-Navy games – I think the defense will do enough to keep the game under control but not fully lock it down, and the offense will do enough to get the job done but not blow it open.

The path to an Irish blowout is relatively easy to see: If Notre Dame can consistently generate explosive plays on offense, whether on the ground or in the air or both, this game won’t be close. Unfortunately the path to a close game or even a Navy win is also relatively easy to see: If the Irish offense bogs down, misses opportunities, and puts itself in a hole, as it has done at times this year, and the young eyes on the Irish defense are caught looking in the wrong place too often… I think the middle scenario of a closer-than-comfortable Notre Dame win seems most probable though.

Notre Dame 38

Navy 28