For the first time in a long while, it wasn’t easy. But in the end, Notre Dame’s defense, after a very shaky three-plus quarters, delivered when it mattered most and helped the Irish secure a 49-35 win over rival USC, a berth in the College Football Playoff, and a home game in said playoff.
Led by a remarkable showing by quarterback Jayden Maiava, USC delivered probably its best offensive game of the season, torching a depleted Notre Dame defensive line and a depleted Notre Dame secondary. For much of the day, both appeared to be buckling after months of being leaned on. Luckily, they had one more push left in them.
Christian Gray, who was abused by Maiava all day, took advantage of Maiava’s only big mistake – a terrible throw well behind his target – and made him pay dearly for it, with a 99-yard pick-six. Xavier Watts added a 100-yard TD of his own a few moments later, just for fun.
Let’s run down some of the key factors in the win:
Run, run and run some more
Jeremiyah Love (before he went down with an injury we will all spend the next few days praying takes fewer than 3 weeks to heal) and Jadarian Price shredded the Trojans on the ground, combining for 210 yards rushing on only 25 carries (Love added another 38 on receptions).
PRICE IS RIGHT#GoIrish☘️ | @Jadarian15 pic.twitter.com/ycygGCmkTm
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 30, 2024
High-level blocking paved the way for many of those yards, and ND probably ought to have stuck with it late in the game rather than turn to the air. Then again, once USC started selling out to stop the run, the Irish’s luck changed a bit.
ND’s line was a bit of a head-scratching semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award when those were announced. It makes a little more sense now.
Gray’s resilience
It is quite hard for me to imagine being an athlete for a thousand reasons, but high on the list is needing to maintain mental focus when the other team has decided the best way to win is to just find where I am and go at that spot over and over again.
Gray faced that nightmare most of today’s game (after an elite first series that saw him make a couple great tackles and break up a pass). USC wasn’t throwing to Leonard Moore if they could avoid it, and for good reason. But when it came to nut-crunch time, Gray delivered. First came a key pass breakup on one 4th-quarter drive, then the pick-6.
CHRISTIAN GRAY #GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/VPYKhCeH3S
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) December 1, 2024
Granted, it helped that Maiava threw a pass some 5 yards behind his intended target, but whatever: Gray still made a great catch, stayed on his feet inside the 1, and followed a convoy of blockers to the house for what amounted to the clinching score. Ninety-nine yards, the second-longest pick-6 in ND history (a distinction that lasted about 4 minutes).
An impressive overall offense
As has been exhaustively noted, USC is not a bad team. By whatever advanced metric you like, the Trojans are a top-30 team, and they had led in the 4th quarter of every game this season. Notably, they would have beaten currently 11-1 and top-5 Penn State if not for some Late Game Lincoln Riley magic. They bear a lot of similarities to the 2016 Notre Dame team, another squad that the numbers liked but kept stepping on their cranks in big moments.
So dropping 49 points on them, and looking nigh unstoppable on offense for 3 quarters before stalling out a bit in the 4th, is not nothing.
Riley Leonard wasn’t asked to do a heck of a lot through the air, as ND barely ever threw the ball downfield, but he was efficient in the short game. What I assume is a miscommunication led to the one interception, but he accounted for 205 total yards and 3 touchdowns. With ND’s running game, that’s almost always going to be enough.
Will need to improve in the front 7
It wasn’t just Gray that was torn apart by a strong USC offensive effort. ND’s front seven was rarely able to force Maiava into bad throws (again, until late), and the Trojan rushing attack was very effective, gaining 7 yards per carry, better than even the Irish’s impressive ground game. It may have been even worse if Woody Marks hadn’t missed the final 3 quarters with an apparent head injury.
If there’s one statistical weakness to this ND defense, it’s been the run game. Howard Cross presumably being back for the playoff (I can now officially say that now!) should help. Maybe some bumps and bruises heal and that helps. But that will need to be an area of focus for the coaching staff.
The big picture
After Northern Illinois, I didn’t think for one damn second this team would win 10 consecutive games. I wasn’t sure they’d win 7 more. As disgusting as that performance and that loss was, you have to give all kinds of credit to the coaching staff and to the players for turning that into a rallying cry. Instead of sinking the season, it was followed by Notre Dame delivering 10 straight opponents their worst losses of the season. (A&M’s only loss by more points than the 10 ND beat them by was against South Carolina.)
You don’t need to be reminded that Year 3 has been a special one for all the great Notre Dame coaches; it was also among the most successful of Brian Kelly’s years. Year 3 hasn’t been special for Freeman yet; it takes more than an 11-1 regular season to get into that category. But this is a Notre Dame team the numbers say is legit – #2 in Sagarin, #3 in Resume SP+, #7 in SP+. Before today I would have said Ohio State, which was easily the #1 team by advanced numbers, was the team I most feared. That’s clearly out the window.
The odds are still well against Notre Dame winning the national championship. It is unlikely to happen. However, I think this is the first time in a very long time (2012 before Kansas State lost, probably?) that the possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand. The Irish are 4 wins away from the national title. At least 1 of those games, and likely two, will not be against a team that can just out-talent them the way ND has been out-talented in this scenario before.
Dream of big things. Hope. Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever truly dies.
Well done lads. Keep winning.
Ugly as hell in spots? Check, but W’s talk baby. Let’s make south bend rowdy
I would like to formally nominate Gray for the play of the season.
It looked to me like Maiava was making some NFL-level QB decisions. Certainly better than some of the actual NFL QBs (cough, Kirk Cousins, cough). He was throwing the ball away at the right times which frustrated me to no end while watching the game.