Sometimes football isn’t complicated. Sometimes the other team just has more dudes than you and you can’t beat them.
That’s pretty much what happened Monday night as Ohio State ended a dream Notre Dame run with a 34-23 title game win that was not as close as that, but was painfully close to maybe being there for the taking.
Let’s take a quick look at what happened.
Dudes and/or elite QB play
I’m not claiming to be breaking new ground here, but I’ve said for years that you can’t win it all without dudes everywhere and/or elite quarterback play. Ohio State had the former and a guy who did a decent impression of the latter Monday night. Notre Dame had their share of the former, but not the latter.
We all knew if it was down to Riley Leonard needing to be awesome, the Irish were unlikely to win. And Leonard really wasn’t bad. His effort on the first drive was little short of awe-inspiring. Unfortunately, the rest of the half was terrible – one drive was marred by bad penalties, and he missed some throws along the way. In the last 20 or so minutes, he was more like the guy we knew, and dropped some impressive passes. He did enough to at least give ND a prayer, and in fact ended the night with a season high in passing yards (255) and just two shy of his season high in total yards (which was 297 against Miami Ohio). But he was never the guy you build the whole plane out of.
Just lost too many guys
For a month now, Notre Dame fans have wondered whether this injury would be the one that finally proved too much. Ben Morrison? Jeremiyah Love? Rylie Mills? Somehow the Irish overcame them all in beating three top-10 teams in a row to get to tonight’s game.
As it turned out, all of them and more proved to be too much to stop ND from getting to the mountaintop.
It seemed pretty clear pretty quickly that Al Golden decided his best play was to play fairly soft, concede underneath throws and bet that his defensive front, which lost its three best pass rushers and had the best remaining lineman (Howard Cross) playing on a bad wheel, could pressure Will Howard enough that he would make a pivotal mistake. The Buckeyes’ offensive line, to their credit, didn’t allow that plan to work, and Howard didn’t have any misses until it was too late.
I won’t fault Golden for thinking that was his best move. He’s been aces all year, and it might have been his best play. It just didn’t work. It’s unfortunate, if he is in fact bouncing to Cincinnati, that that terrible first half will be his final act as ND defensive coordinator.
As for Love, it seems pretty obvious to me he was not remotely close to full go. If he had been, ND would’ve force-fed him the ball. He had six touches for eight yards. The dude wasn’t healthy and anything else was gamesmanship. Having him essentially be taken away neutered the offense.
Some key misses exceeded the margin of error
No Irish fan would deny ND’s margin of error in this game was very small. They had to do the little things, the smart things, the way they’d done for the previous 13 games if they were going to win. They did not do enough of those things Monday night.
Certainly Ohio State deserves the lion’s share of the credit for knocking ND off its game. But the unforced errors included:
– RJ Oben completely undoing all the good will he earned for making the huge play against Georgia, his first big play of the season, by committing a brain-dead roughing the passer to nullify what would’ve been a 3rd and long. (ND forced a fumble the next play, but this was still a bad look.)
– Riley Leonard missed badly on a couple of early throws despite having plenty of time to throw. He also, by social media chatter – I would just as soon not look it up – missed a wide open Jeremiyah Love for a walk-in TD on third down prior to the missed field goal. (It will largely go unnoticed, but the ND offensive line was actually quite good in pass protection for most of the game.)
– This might be more opinion on my part, but I thought Marcus Freeman, so elite in game management all year, had a couple of whiffs. First, the fake punt with Steve Angeli taking the snap, though in his defense it probably should’ve worked and Jordan Faison dropped it. (I’d just rather go for it straight up.) Second, the decision to kick a field goal down 16 in the fourth quarter. I sort of get the math of it – you need 3 scores to win the game and you can’t count on getting two two-pointers – but I’d have just gone for it anyway with as little time left as there was. The karma gods came for him there as Mitch Jeter doinked the kick.
On a night ND had to be pretty much perfect, they weren’t. It’s too bad.
The end-of-game fight is cold comfort, but still worth noting. And the future remains bright.
It shouldn’t have been surprising, I suppose, that Notre Dame refused to wither and die after the Buckeyes took a 31-7 lead, and even got to the point where they were one down away from having the ball with a legitimate chance to tie the game with 2:45 to go. This team just didn’t stop all year, no matter the obstacles presented them. (And yeah, maybe Ohio State was being a bit vanilla on offense, but it’s not like crazy exotic play calling got the Buckeyes the lead in the first place.) Instead of rolling over as ND repeatedly did in prior situations like this, the Irish at least surpassed the level of token scores at the end of the game and forced Ohio State to make one last play to win the game. Unfortunately, Christian Gray, who in a healthy secondary would be the distant third-best cornerback on the team, ended up one-on-one against the best receiver in the country and no amount of blitzing could save him from the fate that such a moment creates.
This feeling sucks. But it’s not the same feeling as 2012, or 2018, or 2020. Yes, ultimately Ohio State outmanned Notre Dame, and for a few possessions the game bore an uncomfortable resemblance to past playoff beatdowns. But this team isn’t that far away. They had a chance; they just weren’t quite good (or healthy) enough to take it.
And unlike past years, this doesn’t feel like a failure. Notre Dame wasn’t voted into this game. They earned their way in by beating three top-10 teams in a row. No one can question this group’s qualifications.
This also doesn’t feel like the end of anything. Not by a long shot.
Yes, there will be departures, as there always are. Reports are already trickling out that DC Al Golden is probably going to the Bengals. Xavier Watts, Cross, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and Ben Morrison are gone, as is Riley Leonard. But ND has guys that can replace them, can go to the portal to get more, and is all-in on football. Barring some unexpected portal movement, next year’s roster will have a (presumably fully healthy) Jeremiyah Love, Jaden Greathouse (who looks ready to explode as a junior), a super experienced offensive line and a bunch of really talented players on defense – Leonard Moore, Jordan Botelho, Boubacar Traore, Jaiden Ausberry just to name a few.
And we have our head coach. The foundation is set. The season opener at Miami is seven months plus a week and change away. I already can’t wait.
A few thoughts, but first – great and fun season! The bounce back from NIU to get to this game was amazing
Tonight OSU looked more talented (wow that offense looked like they had playmakers all over) and they also looked prepared to execute a plan that exposed some of NDs weaknesses.
The opening drive was awesome, but the fact that they relied so much on RL running seemed like a bad sign for the rest of the game. It was also nice to see that they didn’t quit and that Greathouse looked like the guy many of us were hoping to see this year
Tough game but good season!
Riley was a warrior tonight. He was our offense. I didn’t mind sending the house on 3rd and 11 but (in my opinion) playing man 10 yards off the line of scrimmage was the issue. Way harder playing man that far off the ball. You have to be able to get hands on the WR at the snap to disrupt the timing and allow the blitz to get home.
Fought hard, but ND needed to be damn near perfect to win but it didn’t happen. And yet, they still had a chance to get the ball back down 8 with over 2 minutes left.
Gray is definitely at his best in press…giving too much respect to speed turned out to be worse than the opposite.
Losing like that just plain sucks, no doubt. The defensive gameplan got away from their strengths and they paid dearly for it. But i think the running out of gas analogy works best. Shorthanded much of the year the remaining guys just didn’t have enough to get to the end. How much different could it have been with Morrison, Mills, and just one of the edge rushers available?
i can’t help but feel hopeful. This loss is going to be NIU fuel on steroids for the 2025 team. If Golden leaves? That means Mickens doesn’t, or at least he shouldn’t so long as Freeman promotes him. Either way the defense is in good shape. As far as the offense goes, Denbrock should be working with a much more accomplished passer. The OL will reshuffle, maybe Jagusah and Wagner both move inside with Lambert and Knapp at tackle? And Greathouse, who really has gotten open all year, has forced his way into being the #1 guy? i was probably more harsh on Collins than he deserved this year, but the pass game would’ve been much more explosive in 2024 if Greathouse got the ball more.
Next year’s schedule sets up for another playoff run. At least 6 teams have the potential to be ranked and most of those have a ceiling of top 10. Year 3 didn’t end in mythical status, but i’ve got no reason to think that means Freeman will never get there. i think he leveled up and we’re finally going to get used to being in the mix.
replied to the wrong post.
I figured if we didn’t win, it would be all of the injuries on the lines. That’s so much to overcome. What I didn’t expect was ND to get outcoached across the board. What a bummer to see Denbrock, Golden, and especially Freeman each have arguably their worst performances of the season on the biggest stage.
I agree that they got outcoached, but it’s also a lot easier to coach up a good scheme when the OSU third receiver would be a star in ND’s group
No doubt! Day nearly turtled the game away, and he got bailed out by the best player in the country. That’s not a luxury Freeman or Denbrock will ever have.
I’m not exactly sure what to think. I am glad that coming into work today, the guys that follow CFB talked about a good game and both teams deserving to be there. I think realistically this is the closest we’ve been since ’93-’94, I dont see that changing.
Freeman might be the perfect coach for the NIL era. I think he goes after guys who are talented and the right fit, not the guys looking for the biggest paycheck. He also isn’t worried about them getting paid as long as they see the team first. Because of that I think ND will be a perennial contender. The cohesiveness of the locker room may be one of the biggest factors in a championship team, with all the movement that can occur through the year. I wish we could have won it all, but right now the future looks bright!
ND got out of character at least couple times.
1.Going for the field goal did seem strange. If you think you’re going to go for the TD on 4th down you have to make that 4th & 2, not 4th and 9. 2nd and 3rd set up that opportunity. Analytics must have said FG.
2.When the 3rd down snap hit Evans I thought “ball game”. ND needed to get to the half down 7 at worst. Sure as heck, OSU scores before the half and after it. We lost the middle 8 badly.
3.2 penalties to start another first half possession, put the offense in an impossible situation.
4.We needed to stop the run and confuse Howard. We did neither.
We knew this was going to take the seasons best effort from all involved and it didn’t happen. Throw in a plethora of injuries, including those both in and out of the lineup, and it was too big of an ask.
MF said after the game he was aware going down 13 was still a 2 possession game, but he liked the odds of not having to get 2 additional 2 point conversions (which, yeah, duh). I think in the heat of the moment, most of us wanted to go for it, but probably, he was correct.
Rushing the kick instead of taking the delay of game was frustrating. If he makes that, it’s 31-26 with a 3rd and 11 coming up and 2:45 on the clock. That looks like a genius move if things break right which they almost did.
The fake punt was an interesting call. I thought they could have rammed Leonard in there for 2 yards, but then again the fake punt worked until it didn’t.
It’s tough when an offense has as much firepower as they do. I wish Golden would have sold out to stop the run from the start of the game. Basically if Howard beats you passing so be it, but allowing them to run all over us in the first half was going to open up both the rushing and passing game.
At the end of the day though. Injuries to 4.5 players of the starting 11 from defense and a patchwork o-line with your best offense weapon in a generation having a knee injury, it’s difficult to win games like this.
Moving forward, I think you promote Mickens if Golden leaves. From what I’ve gathered is that Golden doesn’t necessarily run an exotic scheme, but has some great blitz schemes and does a great job disguising. But the biggest change for Golden since the first half of his year 1 with ND was the emergence of Morrison and BMO’s ability to be a lockdown man corner. That allowed him to do more scheme wise because we had the dudes on the back end. Well if Mickens is the dude finder, IMO that’s who you keep on the staff. We just saw last night that Jimmy’s and Joe’s can make a big difference so I think you keep Mickens and let him grow. Likely get another 3 to 4 years out of him as a DC before someone hires him as HC. You keep the continuity piece plus CMF can help out over there as well.
Then we need some playmakers on the outside. I’m not talking J.Smith level phenoms, but just a level up from where we were this year. I think next year’s offense will be more explosive in the passing game just because that’s the strength of the QB’s on the roster. I think we’ll see the rb room continue to be explosive.
D-line recruiting and WR recruiting to me are the biggest question marks for the next 3 year run of CMF.
Pete Sampson at II has stated Mickens will get a shot at the DC job but, ND will be looking at other candidates and it’s not likely Mickens gets the job. I think they’ll want a more experienced guy, not someone learning on the job. It will suck to lose Mickens, if he’s not the guy and bolts. The same could be said for many of the assistants. The Co-DC thing is really just a title for more $$$. I doubt it would sway Mickens and might not sit well with the new DC either.
I heard him say that too on the II podcast. The others seemed pretty miffed at Pete being so emphatic that it wouldn’t be Mickens. Maybe Pete has the inside track, but for everyone else to be so convinced including John Brice (who I think is the hardest working guy of the bunch from a journalist standpoint) it left with me with more doubt of Pete than of Mickens not being the DC. I have no information outside of that pod so I could definitely be wrong.
I’m sure there are names out there, but who do we like for the DC if not Mickens? I’m genuinely asking, not saying we should just give it to Mickens.
Utah has a top 12 FEI defense the past two years despite a poorer record. But it sounds like Scalley is next in line for the HC job there.
Minnesota made a huge jump in FEI, but their DC just took the job at Miami so that’s out.
Do you take a run at Phil Parker from Iowa. Not sure he’s going to leave Iowa after being there for 26 years.
I don’t know enough about the NFL guys or past college guys who have made it to the NFL but might be open to coming back to college. I admit I hated the Golden hire at the time.
As far as the II guys I agree on them. Sampson sounding so sure made me put stock in his opinion. There are plenty of other reporters who disagree with him.
Thinking about it more, the call was defensible. I probably still would’ve gone for it, but I get what he was thinking.
I think the unmentioned bit is CMF didn’t think we’d score from the 8-yard line. Fair! OSU is hard to score on in the red zone.
As mentioned above, the error was rushing the kick. Take the penalty. It might even make the angle easier.
I saw a stat that the win probability was pretty even and very low, either way.
I think it was a mistake given how late it was in the game. You still needed two touchdowns if you make the field goal, and with that as the backdrop, it’s pretty clear 4th and goal from the 8 is going to be one of your best chances at getting one of those two touchdowns going forward. Plus, of course, there is some chance (~20-25%, assuming you score two touchdowns but don’t otherwise get the ball in scoring range) you get two two point conversions.
But, this is all kind of mooted and the odds of ever scoring two touchdowns in any case were low.. and then we didn’t. Not really why we lost one way or the other. They simply had better players.
I thought the defensive game plan was off. The D has been what has kept us in and won games all year long. To change our nature in the NC game is “two cute by half”. In order to win this we had to get to Howard. OSU has to much talent at the skill positions. The only way to neutralize that was to get into Howard’s head, if he is off, the whole game plan is off for Ohio. When Our blitzes and pressure wasn’t getting anywhere in the first half, when we couldn’t affect Howard, I didn’t think we had a chance. The fact that at the end, it was interesting was a surprise to me.
Also after gassing Leonard on the opening drive, they should of thrown Angeli in for the second possession. If the defense can change its identity to throw OSU off their offensive game plan, then let the offense change its identity to throw off the OSU defense. That opening drive was beauty, but there was no way Leonard could sustain that for the whole game, OSU knew it, Denbrock knew it, Freeman knew it, the announcers knew it, and most everyone watching knew it. Ohio state’s game plan was to keep Leonard in the pocket and make him throw to beat them. If they put Angeli in for the second drive, OSU might have had to think twice about its defensive game plan. OSU’s secondary was prone to commit penalties in the passing game, just like they have all year. The ND offense has to be a bit more innovative with everything on the line.
As Andy stated in the article, I think Greathouse is set to be the next great receiver at ND. With a passer at QB instead of a runner, I think our Offense may be our strength next year and with the schedule, we’ll need an offense that can score points. I like our O-line going into next season, and I think Greathouse, Rairdon, Faison will offer a lot of weapons with the running back room staying solid with Love, Price and Williams. I think Carr can be a better version of Will Howard. Accurate passing with the ability to run if needed.
If we can maintain a top 20 defense, another NC run may be in the cards, and if not in 25-26, then in 26-27.
If Malachi Fields is the dude we think he is, then Fields/Greathouse/Faison with Pauling as proven depth is a big upgrade from this year. Plus if one Wiliams/Gilbert/KK Smith makes the leap, we could be in really good shape.
Also excited about a line that looks like Jagusah/Schrauth/Craig/Knapp/Wagner or Lambert with our 4 running backs assuming Kedron Young develops. They are going to road grade some people.
With that setup, I think we could make a playoff run with Angeli even, if somehow he beats out Minchey and Carr. And if they are better than he is, I agree the offense is going to be fun.
The offensive line should be capital-G great next year. Charles Jagusah was terrific last night and made Jack Sawyer effectively a nonfactor. We’ll also see some fruit from the young guys getting all the reps they did by necessity this season. And oh yeah we’ve got a 5* lineman coming in too.
The receivers will be greatly improved by just inserting a throw-first QB, just look at the difference between Angeli and RL. Now granted, ND will lose the fact that the opposing defense will have to account for RL’s run threat
Yeah I saw a message board post being like “next year our running game will be even better with a better passer!!!” and it was like oh, no, unfortunately that’s not how it’s going to work.