My plan this week in the intro was to talk about undefeated Maryland and how their game against Nebraska this weekend suddenly had some meaning nationally, or at least for the upper half of the Big Ten pecking order. The Terps led 20-0 over Washington late in the 3rd quarter last week and ended up losing. There goes that hype. Maryland true freshman quarterback Malik Washington had been DGT™ this season but only mustered 219 passing yards on 49(!!) attempts against the Huskies.
So, no Maryland at Nebraska in this week’s picks I’m afraid.
2025 Betting Record
Against the Spread: 24-26
Straight Up: 30-20
A disappointing .500 week against the spread missing a Vanderbilt cover, Louisville to hold on at home, and a would-be upset by Florida State. Straight up it was a successful 4-2 week, though. Nailed the Florida upset of Texas!
Week 7 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
#1 Ohio State [-14.5] at #17 Illinois
Saturday, October 11, 12:00 PM, Fox
I can’t shake this feeling that Illinois, while frisky on offense, is mostly not that great. It’s Illinois after all. The Ohio State offense doesn’t look up to its normal standards (not even averaging 40 points per game, pff) but the defense has been downright nasty this season. They’ve only allowed 25 points all year, that’s crazy. Not long ago, that was one quarter’s worth of points against Chris Ash. This could be a tough road for Illinois.
Ohio State 31
Illinois 13
#8 Alabama [-2.5] at #14 Missouri
Saturday, October 11, 12:00 PM, ABC
Here’s another moment for Missouri to break through. They had a similar chance around this time last year and got blown out by Texas A&M. Then a couple weeks later, the same bad result came against this Crimson Tide program. Penn State quarterback transfer Beau Pribula has looked real nice but sheesh Missouri hasn’t faced much of a test yet this year. The Tigers have never been competitive against Alabama since they came to the SEC, I’ll stick with that trend.
Alabama 42
Missouri 23
#7 Indiana [+7.5] at #3 Oregon
Saturday, October 11, 3:30 PM, CBS
Whoa, this is a big game. Of course, the Big Ten likely has to go through Ohio State–but what if this game kicks off with the Buckeyes having already lost at Illinois? To make things even more enticing, neither Indiana or Oregon play Ohio State during the regular season. We reckon the winner here has a great shot at making the Big Ten Championship. Perhaps some Dante Moore Heisman hype continues?
Someone will be sitting pretty by Saturday evening.
Oregon 35
Indiana 30
#6 Oklahoma [+2.5] vs. Texas (Dallas, TX)
Saturday, October 11, 3:30 PM, ABC
The reports out of Norman are that quarterback John Mateer wants to play but he still hasn’t practiced and it seems highly unlikely in the playoff era they’d risk him right now. Even in the Red River Shootout. Texas needs this game bad. Surely, the Horns won’t lose to Oklahoma’s backup quarterback?
Texas 24
Oklahoma 21
Florida [+7.5] at #5 Texas A&M
Saturday, October 11, 7:00 PM, ESPN
Only 5 more ranked teams for Florida to play this season! They gained some momentum last week beating Texas and have to come right back and play a night game in College Station. I’ve been eyeballing potential losses for A&M (you know at least a couple are coming) and I really think they need to watch out next weekend at Arkansas! This is a tough turn around for the Gators.
Texas A&M 19
Florida 14
#10 Georgia [-3.5] at Auburn
Saturday, October 11, 7:30 PM, ABC
No team features as often in our weekly picks, without doing much nationally, as the Auburn Tigers. Here they are again, hosting Georgia at night. This is the middle of a brutal 4-game stretch for Auburn, too. The seat for Hugh Freeze could be scorching hot very soon. Additionally, the Dawgs completely own this rivalry in modern times winning 8 straight and 19 out of the last 24 meetings. But, why is this spread so small?
Will Auburn do something?
Georgia 33
Auburn 27
#15 Michigan [+2.5] at USC
Saturday, October 11, 7:30 PM, NBC
Let me be crystal clear about this game. I am humming “Conquest” and shooting the victory fingers up in the air. Let’s go Trojans! Not only am I feverishly anti-Michigan but we need this game to fall USC’s way to get a good matchup next weekend in South Bend. Also, USC really does need this game badly to avoid a mid-season death spiral. There are decent odds they’re 4-4 after November 1st if they can’t beat Michigan. The Trojans have the no. 1 SP+ offense right now, you have to play decent enough defense against a true freshman quarterback to win at home.
USC 30
Michigan 20
Arizona State [+5.5] at Utah
Saturday, October 11, 10:15 PM, ESPN
The defending Big XII champion Sun Devils are tied for first in the league right now. It felt like Utah fell off the radar a bit after that 24-point home loss to Texas Tech and yet the advanced stats really like the Utes and not so much Arizona State–a 22 place difference according to SP+ this week. Hence, Utah as pretty comfortable home favorites this weekend. I like a night game in Salt Lake City (it always seems to be rocking here in the dark) to favor Utah but a close game until the end.
Utah 29
Arizona State 27
On the discord chat yesterday someone posted net YPP. ohio state is still top 5 in net ypp but offense was only 24th at like 6.6 ypp. Obviously their defense has been great.
Usc michigan is a huge game for nd. a usc win plants notre dame ahead of michigan and would keep them there presuming nd keeps winning, then like you said makes the usc match up have some real stakes in both sides.
After Penn State’s debacle, I need the Midwest B1G schools to show me they can travel to the West Coast and win. I take Michigan and Indiana if these are home games for them, but I think it could get ugly and will take USC and Oregon to cover easily.