Earlier this year, I wrote about USC’s attempt to weasel out of the Notre Dame rivalry and their slow self-immolation in the face of conference realignment. In that, I wrote:

Let’s make one thing perfectly clear: there is no way this arrangement works out long-term for USC. They are screwing their fans, their players, and ironically enough their championship hopes by walking away from this matchup. This is a once-proud program accepting their place as a mid-level B1G team while saying loud and clear, “We’re nothing special!” They’re not even the best West Coast program in the conference.

Since then, Southern Cal is working hard to change that impression. The Trojans are coming off what many believe is Lincoln Riley’s best win in LA after demolishing #15 Michigan 31-13. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has slowly but surely regained its preseason momentum against three average but not awful opponents. It all adds up to just the fourth ranked-on-ranked matchup in this rivalry since 2006. Due to circumstances outside Notre Dame’s control, it might also be the last.

#20 USC at #13 Notre Dame (-9.5)

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC and Peacock

USC Offense

As you can see from the table above, the Trojans are the consensus #1 offense in the country and for good reason. QB Jayden Maiava has built upon his out-of-nowhere explosion against the Irish last season and currently leads the nation in passer rating. The reciever pairing of Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are terrifying, continuing the tradition of scary USC wide receivers visiting Notre Dame Stadium around Halloween. Like Maiava, Lemon has really taken the next step since putting up 133 yards on nine catches against Notre Dame last year. He is currently on pace for a 1,400 yard season. However, Lane has been gimpy since suffering an injury against Michigan State and has been ineffective so keep an eye on him during warmups.

USC’s running game has been powerful so far this year and their offensive line abused Michigan last week. That being said, several cracks have appeared due to injuries. Starting running back and the Big Ten’s third-leading rusher Waymond Jordan along with his backup Eli Sanders will both be out for an extended period of time, leaving freshman walk-on King Miller as the last man standing. Miller has some legit talent and demonstrated that by roasting Michigan’s defense to the tune of 158 yards rushing at nine yards per carry. Yet there’s a reason why Jordan and Sanders were ahead in the pecking order and I bet USC wishes they had them in the backfield on Saturday.

The Trojan offensive line is also in flux right now. Former Notre Dame commit Elijah Paige was also injured against Michigan State and hasn’t played the last two games. Paige will probably be a game-time decision but another DNP would be very detrimental to the Trojan’s hopes of winning considering Boubacar Traore is on the other side. Starting center Killian O’Connor is definitely out so the USC offensive line will have its hands full. More on that later, but underestimate this offense at your own peril. They’re damn good.

USC Defense

DC D’Anton Lynn’s defense has shown clear improvement over the trainwreck that was the Alex Grinch experience. However, Lynn started from such a massive talent and culture deficit (one top-30 ranking in Defensive F+/- since 2013) that he’s still purging years of bad habits. After improving from 80th to 33rd in Defensive FEI the Trojans have slipped back to 67th this season. It’s going to take at least another year before this defense is CFP ready, assuming linear growth.

The whole operation revolves around hybrid linebacker/safety Eric Gentry. Gentry did not play in last year’s game due to injury but comes into this week leading USC in tackles. Lynn and Linebacker Coach Rob Ryan love to blitz from the second level so Gentry will probably be spending as much time near the line of scrimmage as he does on the backend. Lincoln Riley has invested a lot into rebuilding Southern Cal’s defensive line and there are promising players here. Edge rushers Anthony Lucas Kamryn Crawford and Braylan Shelby are disruptive with 11 combined tackles for loss but they are still not as disciplined as they need to be for this to be an elite defense.

The backend is chock-full of transfers including former UCLA safety Kamari Ramsey. Ramsey is arguably the best player on this defense and has been noted as a potential early-round draft pick.  However, he hasn’t been nearly as effective as he was last year, producing half a tackle for loss and one pass defense so far this season after racking up 10.5 in 2024. He is joined by transfers from Mississippi State, NC State, and San Jose State but unlike Miami, DC Lynn hasn’t figured out how to get these rentals to elevate their play. Like most of these matchups over the last decade, there are yards to be had against this defense.

So that’s where I remember Kamari Ramsey from!

Three Questions

Is the Irish secondary ready for redemption?

The disturbing defensive performances in Notre Dame’s first three games don’t need to be relitigated but the three games since then have been quite encouraging. The combination of Taylen Green, Maddux Madsen and C.J. Bailey completed just 57% of their passes with just one touchdown and eight interceptions while averaging 201 yards through the air. Against everyone else, they have combined for 38 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions on 66% completion. Since Purdue, the Irish secondary has faced three credible quarterbacks and given them all the 2024 treatment.

Yet Maiava and Lemon are a different beast and no team has been able to stop them this year. Illinois managed to slow the Trojans down by gumming up the run game but Maiava still had 364 yards passing and Lemon 151 recieving yards. Like Texas A&M, Lincoln Riley is going to try and spread out Chris Ash’s defense before letting Maiava fire away. Fair or not, those first three games still happened for the Notre Dame defense and nobody will buy this team as a true CFP contender unless they can pull through tomorrow night.

The recipe for the Irish secondary is to make the Trojans work for their yards and force everything underneath. Lincoln Riley knows this and that’s why Maiava gets the ball out quick. Tackling and eye discipline will be paramount.

Will Notre Dame’s offense iron out the kinks?

There aren’t many weaknesses on this offense but those that exist could doom the Irish season if not addressed this weekend. The most obvious concern is fixing the short yardage fiascos we keep seeing. By now, you’ve probably seen the stat that Notre Dame is 13 of 27 in 3rd/4th and two or less so far this season. This despite a dramatic improvement in overall 3rd down conversion rate from 2024 as the Irish are converting 49% of 3rd downs a year after that number was 41%. The short yardage offense just has to be better but it will be challenging without Ashton Craig. We shall see if backup Joe Otting can do his best Pat Coogan impression beginning tomorrow.

CJ Carr has also looked more human in the last two games after a stretch of crazy good quarterbacking. He missed open throws against both Boise State and NC State while also tossing his first interception in 80 attempts against the Wolfpack. Add in the short yardage struggles and the Irish offense just hasn’t operated at peak efficiency the last two weeks.

Luckily, USC’s defense is still quite leaky, especially against the pass. In four games against P4 opponents, the Trojans have surrendered nine touchdowns and over 9 yards per pass attempt. Altogether, USC ranks 102nd in yards per play and that’s playing against some suspect QBs such as Aiden Chiles (67th in passer rating), Bryce Underwood (79th) and Ryan Browne (96th). The weather forecast calls for rain and wind so it might not be the best conditions for an aerial assault but this should be a get-right opportunity for ND’s offense.

Can the Irish win the battle on the lines?

This question would’ve gotten a hearty laugh from myself and every other Irish fan in previous years when talking about this matchup. For everything that has gone wrong for Southern Cal since Pete Carroll left, nothing has been as problematic as the lack of physical line play. Frankly, USC has been one of the softest programs in college football for more than a decade now. It’s also been the main reason why the Irish have dominated this rivalry as of lately. Notre Dame has outrushed USC in seven of the last nine matchups in this series and has exceeded 200 yards in four of those games. For the record, ND has won all seven of those games.

However, Lincoln Riley is working very hard to change Southern Cal’s charmin mindset (at least on the field). For better or worse, Michigan is widely considered one of the most physically imposing teams in the country and USC destroyed the Wolverines on the line of scrimmage. The Trojans are averaging 227 yards rushing per game at 6.4 yards per carry which is outpacing Notre Dame’s 173 yards per game at 4.7 ypc.

The good news for the Irish is that despite the early defensive struggles against Miami and A&M, Notre Dame has done a good job at stopped the run this season. Here are the yards per carry allowed for all six games so far this season: 3.5, 4.0, 2.7, 5.3, 2.9 and 1.8. The interior defensive line quartet of Hinish, Onye, Dawson and Rubio may not be disruptive but they have contained opponent’s rushing attacks.* With the injuries on USC’s offensive line, there is an opportunity to dominate on Saturday night.

*Rubio is now listed as out for tomorrow’s game

Prediction

Unfortunately, USC looks like a very good team this year and the Trojans always bring it in this game. Since 2010, Notre Dame has dominated the rivalry in the record books but the actual games are usually close affairs. Only in 2017 and 2023 did the Irish really take it to the Trojans the way Pete Carroll used to beat up on us. Every other matchup has been a one-possession game in the fourth quarter, even against some really crappy Southern Cal teams. That’s why I’m skeptical that Notre Dame will be able to cover that 9.5-point spread even if they play a clean game.

USC is playing with a lot of confidence and they are definitely improved over the last two seasons. Lincoln Riley has preached better physicality and the Trojans have thus far responded. By most metrics, this is a borderline top-10 team. Nonetheless, Riley’s offense has struggled away from the LA Colesium since the beginning of 2024. USC is 1-6 on the road with losses to average Big Ten teams like Maryland, Illinois, and Minnesota. The Trojans are also averaging almost 100 yards less on offense and over 20 more penalty yards in those games.

A loss here would sting more than any of us would like to admit, especially if the various reporting is correct and this rivalry will no longer be played annually. But you can’t let Southern Cal get away with knocking you out of the playoffs in your own stadium and then dipping out of the rivalry. Just the thought of that outcome makes me sick.

Despite USC’s mini-resurgence so far in 2025, Notre Dame should still win this game. The Irish are the more talented team, ranking 9th in the 247 Talent Composite while USC is down at #17. Notre Dame’s 73% Blue Chip Ratio far outpaces USC’s 57%. The Irish are at home where they haven’t lost to this team since 2011. Marcus Freeman and this team must still be smarting from dropping their first two “big” games of the year. Surely he is looking to send a message tomorrow night.

This will be a close game throughout where neither side is able to separate themselves. But the Irish will rediscover some of their closing ability in the 4th quarter and distance themselves just enough to win. Furthermore, USC deserves to lose because of their cowardly nonsense. And they will or else karma is dead.

Notre Dame 38

USC 32