Notre Dame is off this week but not the weekly picks. We roll on with 8 games on the slate for week 9. Can Indiana stop UCLA’s winning ways and vice versa? Can the Sooners survive a barrage of top opponents? How bad could things get for Brian Kelly? And, will BYU continue to lead the Big 12?
2025 Betting Record
Against the Spread: 33-34
Straight Up: 42-25
It looked so good this past week as I jumped out to a 3-0 start against the spread with my picks. I finished week 8 at 3-6, ouch. Straight up, things were a little more acceptable but not by much. I finished things 5-4 overall.
Week 9 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
UCLA [+25.5] at #2 Indiana
Saturday, October 25, 12:00 PM, Fox
UCLA could do one of the funniest things this year, after already achieving that against Penn State, with a wild upset at Indiana this weekend. I’m not calling for that to happen but I do think the Hoosiers are going to be a little sleepy in this one. Watch out for a tie game or something in the 2nd quarter before Indiana finally puts things to bed in the 2nd half. This is UCLA’s 3rd trip back east in less than a month, it’ll eventually take a toll.
Indiana 39
UCLA 13
#8 Ole Miss [+4.5] at #13 Oklahoma
Saturday, October 25, 12:00 PM, ABC
I wouldn’t have expected the Sooners to be favored in this game, perhaps Vegas thinks the turn around from a physical Georgia game is going to be too hard for Ole Miss? This is the beginning of 5 straight ranked opponents for Oklahoma. If they lose here, realistically the playoffs aren’t happening. I like the outright upset on the road, I have a feeling the Sooners aren’t that great and still have some problems under Brent Venables.
Ole Miss 31
Oklahoma 27
#18 USF [-4.5] at Memphis
Saturday, October 25, 12:00 PM, ESPN2
The pressure is on South Florida now as they are the current favorite to make the playoffs from the Group of 5 conferences. This was looking like a huge matchup until Memphis went ahead and screwed the pooch last weekend against interim-led UAB. If the Tigers lose again it’s likely all over for them in the AAC this year. Memphis has won 10 in a row at home, though. Sneaky tough place to play?
Memphis 44
USF 41
#15 Missouri [+2.5] at #10 Vanderbilt
Saturday, October 25, 3:30 PM, ESPN
if Vanderbilt can win this game the playoffs are really going to come into focus. They have no super easy games left, and travel to Texas and Tennessee still, but they will be in a great spot even if they lose once more down the stretch. Diego Pavia seems intent on dragging this team to be as good as it can be. After a hot start, it looks like Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula maybe isn’t that great?
He did that last week.
Vanderbilt 35
Missouri 27
#11 BYU [+2.5] at Iowa State
Saturday, October 25, 3:30 PM, Fox
So, is BYU going to just never lose with a true freshman at quarterback who left Stanford in the spring and only enrolled with BYU in May, ascending to the starting quarterback job after the previous signal caller left under a cloud of off-field controversy? They can’t keep getting away with this. They’re going to be fired up in Ames.
Iowa State 24
BYU 20
#22 Texas [-6.5] at Miss State
Saturday, October 25, 4:15 PM, SEC Network
Clanga has been a real problem for some teams this year. They gave Florida and Tennessee everything they could handle and way back earlier in the season handed Arizona State a loss. Texas is going to struggle (again).
Texas 23
Miss State 19
#3 Texas A&M [-2.5] at #20 LSU
Saturday, October 25, 7:30 PM, ABC
Hoo boy, the pitchforks are getting sharpened down in the Bayou. For the record, Brian Kelly’s buyout is sitting at $58.2 million and in normal times there’s just no way LSU would be paying that after 4 years. Yet, the climate in the coaching market in this new era is different. We can’t be so sure anymore! If the Tigers lose it would drop Kelly to 34-14 (.708) which doesn’t seem that bad–but 3 losses before Halloween is going to be really tough to swallow for LSU fans who aspire to much more.
Not suffering from success.
Texas A&M 33
LSU 24
Houston [+7.5] at #24 Arizona State
Saturday, October 25, 8:00 PM, ESPN2
Maybe we can’t count Houston as truly in the mix, although they only have 1 loss in league play and will be right in the thick of it with a victory in the desert this weekend. If ASU loses I think they are officially done and just don’t have it this year. The door would be open still in the Big 12 but they’d be around 6th in the conference and start needing some help and carnage elsewhere to finish out the season. We’re going to see a defensive battle with the Forks holding on.
Arizona State 20
Houston 17
LSU did us such a huge favor by paying BK so much. I was very bummed at the time, not that I liked BK, he’s not likeable, but absolutely thought he was the best coach we could get and that MF was at least a year from being ready, and probably 2-3 years from being as good as BK.
MF might have been a year away, but also might have done better than BK would have in 2022, and either way was worth the risk. Also, one more season with BK probably would have sapped his value, but not been bad enough for us to fire him, and we would have lost MF that year anyway, if not after his first season.
Sadly, BK is still probably a top 10-15ish coach in CFB. Not a testament to him, there just aren’t many good ones.
I would be curious on people’s thoughts about where he ranks now.
I’d say these coaches are definitely better than BK: Day, Cignetti, DeBoer, Smart, Lanning, Lea, Freeman
Probably in BK tier, all moving in different directions: Sarkisian, Kiffin, Swinney, Heupel, Franklin, Elko
There are just so few coaches who consistently put together competitive teams.
I feel like CFB coaches are almost like quarterbacks in the NFL. A ton of people complain about their average to above-average one, but who are you going to get that’s better?
Bob Stoops
Urban Meyer
Nick Saban
John Harbaugh
All the realistic options always on the table lol
That’s an interesting list but here’s my thoughts on them (yes, I know my thoughts are unsolicited, but what the hell. I’ve got a few spare minutes to pontificate).
You would be able to knock me over with a feather if John Harbaugh left the Ravens to coach college football.
Urban Meyer likely wants to coach again (and get away from the analyst role). But he would want to go to some school that doesn’t mind having a morally reprehensible coach, like say Liberty University?
Nick Saban looks too comfortable, and doesn’t need the money. Besides, he’s got the Belichick example to show him what could happen at this point. Maybe if the school offering him a job gave him free hair dye for life?
I know Stoops the least of these, but he’s been out for so long, and I doubt he wants to resurrect the “Big-Game-Bob” moniker.
This made me giggle at work. It then became clear how specific it is to ND. Even the Clemson guy asking why I was laughing didn’t totally get it. Then he became really confused when I mentioned that none of those candidates even mattered because Gruden has a clause in his Barstool contract that he can leave for the ND job.
I think there’s a case to be made that what Kiffin is doing at Ole Miss is as or more impressive than at least some of the coaches in your top tier, especially Lanning/DeBoer/Freeman. If you’re dinging him for the USC work, fair enough I guess though also he was working with scholarship reductions.
Eh. I feel like what he’s doing at Ole Miss is basically what DeBoer/Lanning/Freeman are doing minus ever making a playoff or conference championship game. So he’s in a distinct tier below.
Lanning in particular won 10, then 12, then 13 games and already has a B1G Championship and has never finished below 2nd in his conference. If I were to divide my top tier, I’d probably put Lanning below Day/Smart, but above the rest. Maybe Freeman in that tier, but could just be my bias. I would definitely rather have MF than KDB or Cigaretti. I personally like MF more than Lanning, but I see no real evidence that he’s a better coach. Glad to hear arguments though.
Kiffin is the most BK coach in the country. He wins a lot of games, but has never competed in a meaningful post season game (BK has at least made a lot of post seasons, but never been competitive, so kind of a push). Kiffin has won 10 games 3 out of his 5 seasons at Ole Miss. In those same 5 seasons, BK won 10 games 5 times. In the 3 complete seasons BK has been at LSU, they have both won 29 games, and BK has won 2 more SEC games and has won the SECW.
If you look at the past 3 years, BK is better than Kiffin. If you look at the past 5 years, that gap widens a smidge, and if you go any further back there is barely a comparison.
This year will likely change that, and Kiffin is the main reason I mention heading in different directions. Also, Ole Miss has only beaten 1 ranked team this year (LSU lolz) and only plays one more (Oklahoma this weekend). So there’s entirely a chance they are a lot of smoke and mirrors, but we won’t find out until the playoff since they are currently 4th in the SEC. Basically they could be this year’s Tennessee.
Putting Freeman above Kelly and Dabo seems premature to me. Freeman had one great season (with an atrocious loss in the middle) and 2 solid if unspectacular seasons. He’s in the middle of a season where there’s a high likelihood that they won’t have a win over a team that ends the season ranked.
To be clear, I strongly dislike Kelly and Dabo as humans, and I much prefer having Freeman to either of them (or Gruden or Urban or any other crummy person/good coach). But I think it’s definitely premature to say Freeman is a better coach than those guys.
Yeah, that seems a little bit of recently bias. I think Freeman is a very good coach and I like him and happy he coaches my team… but – and this basically hasn’t made it’s way into the ND zeitgeist, but it’s more or less true – if we had lost to USC, or if we lose in the regular season going forward, he’s coaching for his job next year. In a hypothetical world in which we don’t make the playoffs this or next year, he’s basically Lesser Ed Orgeron in terms of on the field results. And that world is still possible.
But that seems very unlikely and I think we’re going to make the playoffs both years, because IMO Freeman is actually a better coach than that. And, if we make the playoff this/next year, I think we can more safely say he’s above Kelly and maybe even Dabo notwithstanding Dabo’s multiple rings.
There is definitely recency bias. I’m not rating their careers, rating them as coaches today.
I’d say my rankings also skew highly towards post season success as where I give most “points”. That is the only time you can’t schedule yourself into success (unless you are PSU). Then I probably weight it something like past 3 season around 75%, prior 2 (so past 5 total) another 15%, total history another 5%, this season 5% (since there’s a LONG way to go). Then of course a multiplier of pure vibes baby, i.e. who would I want as our coach.
So some of the specific reasoning.
Freeman won 3 playoff games last year, more than BK has ever won. I think that puts him top 5 in total playoff wins among active coaches?
Dabo hasn’t won a playoff game since 2019. Obviously his career will go down likely way higher than anyone on the list outside Smart and maybe Day (and hopefully MF).
DeBoer has only lost 3+ games as a HC 3 times total in 11 seasons. 2 of which were at Fresno state. He had a tough year last year, but is only 2 years removed from making a NC game. Also a better D2 career than BK, 4 straight championship games w/ 3 titles. For now, I think he’s earned the respect.
Cig – dude sucks as a person, but he wins a lot. Probably getting more credit for this season than others. Not as successful as KDB at lower levels.
Lea every win at Vandy is the equivalent of a playoff win by a normal team. Lea is getting big time vibes points.
This is all so subjective. I love discussing it. I’m already shifting perspective on a bunch of these guys as I dig more into their history, especially how quickly I think they could rise and fall. KDB could fairly easily end up with 4 losses again (1 SEC loss, SECCG loss, playoff loss). What if Lanning once again fails to win a playoff game?
Outside of Day/Smart, my top tier is a bunch of pretty new coaches of elite teams, so once this season finishes, could see big shifts.
I’m also curious of people’s thoughts on the next tier. Key and Cristobal both have top 10 teams right now. Any other up and comers which I just don’t know about?
I should mention. Freeman also gets vibes+bias points. But I feel like the rest of coaches get a pretty fair analysis.
Next tier coaches are the ones that rotate in and out of the top 25:
Lance Leipold – Kansas
Kenny Dillingham – AZ state
Dave Aranda – Baylor
Matt Campbell – IA State
and then some coordinators:
Will Stein – Oregon OC
Phil Parker – Iowa DC
Tony White – Fl St DC
Denbrock, etc…
I think using Playoff wins is a tough criteria, just because the expanded playoff has existed for such a short period of time. If the expanded playoff existed in 2012, I feel confident(ish) that ND team wins 2 or 3 games. (Last year’s lost to NIU would have likely kept Freeman from even making it into a 4-team playoff)
It’s fun to think too about coordinators. I thought Ash was almost certainly going to be Freeman’s BVG. The fact that they’ve worked together as a staff to turn it around is remarkable, and definitely a point for Freeman.
I think the most interesting case is Dabo. That dude needs a change of scenery so so badly. I think when FSU fires Norvell, they should give him a call. Maybe Oklahoma State could throw some oil money his way. I think there’s still likely an elite coach there, but I don’t see him reviving things at Clemson.
Very true. It’s also super limited because Harbaugh, Saban, Smart, Day, and Dabo hold like 90% of all playoff wins.
But it also feels pretty much in line with my overall feeling about all those coaches. Kurt C is clearly getting some love without playoff wins and Dabo is dropping not just because of the post season, but also because of his overall output. He’s lost 18 games since 2021.
How would you shift the tiers? As mentioned, most of the top coaches are pretty new, so Lanning, DeBoer, Cig, Freeman, Lea are hard to judge with minimal experience at the top level. Maybe my vibes are really more of a factor than I think.
Current coaches are probably Kirby and Day in a tier of their own.
Tier 2 is tough. Dabo probably needs to be there, but you’re right 18 losses recently is a lot. DeBoer has somehow gone from hottest coach in the country to underrated in a year and a half. He’s in tier 2 for me. Cignetti and Lea have short track records, but man I would not complain about either of those guys leading ND.
There’s probably a random BK only tier here for me. Consistency is worth something, even if he’s struggled since forever in the big games.
Lanning/Elko/Freeman/Kiffin tier next? I wouldn’t argue against shoving Kiffin into the BK tier. I wouldn’t argue against moving Kiffin below this group. He’s an enigma, wrapped in a riddle.
Idk what to do with Heupel, James Franklin, and Matt Campbell. Maybe Matt Rhule too? I don’t enjoy watching any of their teams play football, for very different reasons. I don’t trust any of them with a particularly high ceiling, but prior to this year’s Penn state, I would have said they all bring a reasonable floor to their teams.
Sark and Lincoln Riley exist somewhere in the ether. Any given year, I believe they could win their conference, but I also feel confident neither will ever have a team that wins a national title.
This is a tougher assignment than I initially imagined!
Yeah. There is generally so much vagueness. And in the end, it’s all about preference.
It would be really interesting to see how Dabo would do somewhere else. He’s still got a decade or more of coaching. I wouldn’t be surprised at either a rebound or a Jimbo.
Also, I totally agree on coordinators. They are huge. Makes sense that BK turned things around once he started hiring guys like Elko/Lea.